Sunday PM
January 20th, 2013 at 4:12 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The first image on the left is the black and white visible satellite image from mid-afternoon (from ADDS). It’s sunny in Wisconsin. The clouds and snow flurries/showers we have are all generate by lake-effect…cold air coming across relatively warm water. Check out the current weather map. The temperature at each weather station on the map is the number in the upper left. There isn’t as much difference between eastern Wisconsin and West Michigan here in the late afternoon. The sun has warmed the air a little in Wisconsin during the day, so often the difference is a little less in the late afternoon in a situation like this than in the morning. The second image is Lake Michigan water temperature from GLERL. The actual temperatures are probably a few degrees cooler than what is indicated on the map. Lake Michigan goes through a process of overturning in early winter when the water temperature stays at around 39-40 degrees for a couple weeks and I suspect the water temperature is around 40. Note where the warmer water is located. You can see here that Lake Superior (farthest north) and Lake Erie (shallowest Great Lake) are the coldest lakes, and Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario are the warmest. When you try and forecast lake-effect snow, you have to look at many factors, including the water temperatures, the fetch – or how great the distance that the air will be coming over the water and the residence time (the time the air will spend over the water – if the wind is stronger, the air will spend less time over the water water). Here’s currents in the Great Lakes. This is dictated by the wind direction, speed and geography. Note that today, there is a uniform surface flow from north to south over Lake Superior, but a little more disrupted flow over Lake Michigan. BTW – I was at the station last night until 4:50 AM – around 1 PM, I updated radio forecasts from home and right now I’m checking weather and watching the Atlanta-49ers game. I’m on call if and when team coverage is needed. Kyle Underwood called early this afternoon and we went over the weather and how we plan coverage for all our media for the next 72 hours. There’s a lot going on behind the scenes. At this point I would lean on the slightly higher end of snowfall amounts – the most favorable lake-effect areas should see over a foot of snowfall this week. The latest NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. 7″ of snow this week and Holland 14.4″.
Also, the GRR NWS has wisely noted the possibility of ice jams on area rivers by the end of the week into early next week. Also (as is often the case) when we have a cold shot, the upper pattern aligns to bring cold air to Europe and Eastern Asia. Lots of winter going on in the U.K. and in Japan. London has had 10 days in a row with colder than average temperatures and during that time they’ve been 6 degrees cooler than average. Dublin, Ireland is in the mid 30s and snowing. The weather has moderated in northwest Mexico after some of the coldest temperatures in 42 years and heavy snow.
Back to FOOTBALL CUE , For BILLS BLOG : The Beatles- A Day in the Life – YouTube
► 5:07► 5:07
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Q9D4dcYng.
watching the pats and ravens now…really sloppy game.
Current Radar….FIZZLE!!!! Must be that GIANT BUBBLE!!!!!
Speaking of Fizzzzzler..hmmmmmmmmm.. Where is He… How many names is it Indy ?????
Wow!! WATCHES AND WARRINGS…where is all that SNOW??? do i hear OVERHYPE AGAIN!!
no you do not.
I am curious if you understand what Lake Effect Snow is?? You won’t see that on radar right now coming from Wisconsin or something…….
Worry about the weather in your area.
That’s what they do best!
Test 1
Advisory will no doubt be dropped. Warning will be downgraded if not dropped all together.
What are you basing this on? Your sophisticated at home weather equipment?
The fact that there isn’t any moisture. Not even snowing im the UP.
I will refer you to Brian’s comment on Mindy’s post above…
I agree with you, Tom. Stacsh and Mindy are both lost.
There will be moister air soon. That should start up the Lake Effect Machine. If not the NWS is gonna have egg on their face.
Ya, what’s happening?
Nothing new there.
Snow looks to be intensifying back up on the radar in the past few minutes. Snowing lightly with tiny flakes right now.
No it doesn’t
Give it about an hour or so and everything will be in place and the lake machine will be cranking!!!! Just be patient everyone the NWS is right on track with this one!!!
Exactly.
Looking at radar, looks like it might be starting to fire up.
Beat ya to it by a couple of seconds lol
yep lol
We are currently in a NO SNOW PATTERN!
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
No ” I’m getting the clubs out golf . Looks like golf weather “.
Just picking Rock !
“I’m getting the clubs out”
Now that is really funny
Just stating the FACTS Rocky.
I’m certain by 9:45-10:00pm the lake shore will be seeing some moderate to heavy snow… let’s wait and see if I’m right?? GET READY WEST MICHIGAN!!!!!
Doesn’t look like you were right…
He was spot on, actually. It was not snowing at all at 9:30, and I just checked and it’s coming down again.
Nothing moderate or heavy there, though
When everyone starts freaking out over a forecast, all I can think of it this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q16KpquGsIc
is* not it.
lmao
OMG ! I feel looney now. lol !
Should play that every time the Lions lose.
INDY on Sprites!
We will have a Harball bowl…. In 2 weeks…….INDYY….
HOPING SO INDY !!!!!!!!!
Both of em? Be the Cry Bowl
This is what I invision http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y49AbJF5yFc
Bloggers, might want to realistically delay your expectations on the snow for a few more hours. If you want to take what the HRRR model is saying, it won’t start snowing in until some point in the overnight period, and getting really good around daybreak tomorrow. (Click Here) Sorry to keep you waiting. Don’t crucify me or anything; I’m just here to observe and report. Try to have fun and be kind to each other. Oh, winds will increase by tomorrow morning too… brrrrr… (Click Here)
But but but the radar is starting to light up! Lol
Good Day,
Hey Cort, as always, great links. Any opinion on the dgz and just how much moisture might make it here? Thx!
Steelie
I don’t have the right tools to take a good look at the DGZ (the depth, the moisture content, the vertical velocities of air in it are all important), so I’ll have to defer to the NWS / WOOD snowfall forecasts and discussions. That has been a point of concern with the NWS for several days now, is the shallow and low-to-ground DGZ. For those curious what I’m talking about, without dendritic snow crystal growth, it’s harder to get big, fluffy, fast-accumulating snows.
The HRRR is showing relative humidities increasing at the ground tonight as temperatures fall closer to the dewpoints (Click Here). And at 850 mb (about a mile above ground), the HRRR is showing higher RH air moving across the lake in the late overnight period (Click Here). But that dry air that is riding its coattails is, um, interesting, let’s say. *shurg*
Good Day,
Thanks Cort! Kind of what I was thinking (although clearly more amatuer in my approach… haha). I am concerned about the moisture and how long it might last…
Steelie
And here comes the reinforcing shot of cold air, which will knock us down an additional 5-10 degrees from the comfortable upper teens where we are now. This animation shows the temperatures at the 925 mb pressure surface, which is a couple thousand feet off the ground: (Click Here). This should also help increase instability over the lake (instability is cold air above warm air), which is one of the 3 main ingredients for lake effect snow, along with moisture and lift.
Let it snow!! Just waiting for that moisture to show up…
Nice – thanks for posting this link!
I just checked the 00Z RDB model and it still shows GR picking up 3-5 inches of snow by Monday night! Get ready to ROCK n ROLL people!!!
Bills formula is…..
3-5 inches of snow equals 1.5 to 2.5 inches of snow. This is major Rock and Roll
Over here just north of Bay City there are breaks in the clouds and the temp from the car reads 14 with a NW wind here. We will be heading home tomarrow. It was for the most part cloudy here with no new snow. The highest I seen today was 19 . I see the lake effect has not started in earnest over there as of yet.
Slimjim
Live on the kent Ottawa border, we are buried, buried, under a severe dusting of snow. Huge drifts of, of, powder white stuff at two – three inches.
Good news is the latest ZW34r model calls for another heavy dusting over the next 240 hours! Yes, that’s right between now and early February and additional heavy dusting.
Live on the kent Ottawa border, we are buried, buried, under a severe dusting of snow. Huge drifts of, of, powder white stuff at two – three inches.
Good news is the latest ZW34r model calls for another heavy dusting over the next 240 hours! Yes, that’s right between now and early February and additional heavy dusting.
Reply
HAHA ! Good one !
Following your direction, I shall reply: Boring… let me know when you’re two snowflakes deep!
Hey it sounds like you are still in a NO SNOW PATTERN
Hey storm warning 7 min. till bed time !!!!Snow dreams!!!!INDYY..
Why don’t they just have one warning? Blizzard, meaning its actually going to snow. Why is it every time we get a dusting of snow were automically under a damn warning? Stop making everyone panic over nothing!
Terri tweeted that “he is pulling an all nighter” does she mean you Bill? Haha, I wish I could but I have my first exams tomorrow!
Apparently they aren’t too impressed with the snowfall at wood. I see they dropped the snowfall predictions for the snowbelt down to 6-8″.
Where did you see that?
On the graphic they just showed at the start of the 10PM news.
Reality….
The GR metro area is looking at an inch currently
The radar is empty
Bill says… note – snowfall is not the same thing as snow accumulation – as the snow settles down. A foot of snowfall may be 6-8″ of snow accumulation).
GR may get 3-5 which is really. 1.5 – 2.5 on the ground
WOOD is calling for mid 30s in another week
Yes, the next 48′hours are going to be quite cold, but all in all rather brief.
Your sarcasm is hilarious. I’m drowning in tears.
PURE ENTERTAINMENT…….SNOW HYPE!!!!
Do U know a Deb from OK?? Mindy?? INDYY..
Hmmmm…Ludington IS IN a Mason County………..
Haha I guess no one read my post earlier about how no one is listening and everyone will say that the NWS/Forecast/Woodtv is a fail because it didn’t snow tonight…
GUYS, the deeper moisture doesn’t arrive until late into the overnight hours. The heaviest snow/snow will not be until after daybreak-8AM.
All about patience…definitely in short supply this winter with the lack of snow so far.
Would you say it is a good sign that the air is moving slower? I would think the longer time over the lake gives the bands more moisture and more time to form, thus dumping heavier snow.
It shouldn’t change much except for delay the onset and the heaviest snow later. The lake effect won’t really get going until after 6-8AM.
I would say start time closer to 2-3am….fwiw; also think Kazoo gets substantially MORE than 2-4″ total you were predicting (by Wed)
DDDDDDDD WE FOUND DEB JORDAN NOW MANDY FROM MASON!!!DDDDDDDD ONE HECK OF A MOVE!!!!! STAY TUNED INDYY…….
All I know is 331 days later I am FINALLY heading out to plow some snow! not much snow…but …its still work!
‘like’!
$$$$$$.
.UPDATE…
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013
WE/RE GOING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS IS. SHSN HASN/T RAMPED UP AS
QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE OVER THE LAKE TOWARD SUNRISE. WE SHOULD
SEE A MARKED UPTICK IN SHSN ACTIVITY JUST PRIOR TO IT/S ARRIVAL.
LATEST IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAKE
SUGGESTING A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. 00Z MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN OMEGA ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE SHSN INTENSITY.
So what does that mean in English Cort?
Its going to snow
It means they see signs that the lake effect clouds, moisture, and instability are increasing as this disturbance moves closer.
Ok, thanks. So it doesn’t look like the heavy snow will start until at least midnight… I’ll be going to bed for now, but hopefully stop by in the early hours (1-4 AM)!
Sure. It has been confusing, as some were calling for it to start this evening, and others saying moreso overnight into the morning. The GRR NWS was calling for it to pick up around 7 p.m. (oops!)
I wanna wake up to a winter wonderland! And I am sick of people already assuming this is a bust.
I’m with you Katie.
The key word Katie is…”WONDER”… just SAYIN…
Snow showers (SHSN) should slowly ramp up tonight but it won’t really start snowing in earnest until just before daybreak. Omega is meteorological technobabble for “rising air” (semi-technobabble is “vertical velocity” or “lift”)… and this upward air movement plus moisture is what creates clouds and precipitation.
(Lake effect snow needs those two ingredients, lift and moisture, plus instability, which is warm air underneath much colder air. The warm lake creates instability when colder air flows over it.)
Ok, it seems like the NWS should delay the warnings to 3AM or something.
Waiting for moisture. I was expecting this to happen btw! It’s pretty typical for a situation like this to occur!
00Z NAM has a real flare up of the lake effect overnight. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam&cycle=00&area=namer¶m=sim_radar
Indeed, and the latest 84-hour has greatly enlarged the 14-inch prediction area on the Ottawa-Allegan border.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR
Much of that may be from the system later this week, but still, nice to see that.
Yes!
We should start to see the snow accumulations come down closer to reality now… lol
BILL’ S Blog…IT’S TIME 2 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jw_-Vh9Z0
Hahahahah
Lake effect is always spotty and difficult to forecast. With that said, NWS started their warnings way too early on this one (7pm).
The GFS had been showing steady lake effect starting several hours ago, so one has to wonder how the rest of the forecast will transpire as well. I guess the air is too dry yet.
If one is to believe the CPC, looks like some milder air is coming this weekend and early next week (southern Lower Michigan is back in above average temps). Also, looks like a nice storm to watch Thurs/Fri this week.
Amusing that around 7 p.m. was when there was probably some of the least snow shower activity. It snowed pretty good in these parts up until about 4 p.m. and then wound down to off and flurries during the 6 to 7 time frame.
yea ya got that right…lol just fired up the truck…man is that snow squeaky! Now looks like more closer to rush hr before it really ramps up….thats fine for me, long as we get another 2″ tomorrow (after I plow tonight)ill be happy.
Have you been over in these parts yet? Did we get more snow. I don’t know if you got my earlier post, but I live in northern Spring Lake township near Rycenga Park. Five minutes away from both Fruitport and Spring Lake…on the west side of Spring Lake.
no i have not left yet, being that it was a marginal snow I figured I would wait. Im leaving now, looks to be a real fast night if it waits to start snowing.
Just so you know…the wind has really blown it around. Some lots are bare with the snow drifted to one side.
00z still holding high accum. but im starting to get inpatient!!
Beat me to it. Yeah, there has been too much waiting this winter!
looks like the radar is really starting to flare up and intensify.. within the last half hour
Sweet..I haven’t looked lately because I want to be somewhat surprised…but now I have to look! Lol
Matt, I’ve tried that. It doesn’t work. I always have to look. I have a lot of patience, but not for this.
We’re addicts, Brian. Quit cold turkey? I think not…
48-image radar loop from CoD:
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=GRR-N0Q-1-48
Snow is back on the increase (started to ramp back up in the 8 o’clock hour), but it’s got a ways to before it’s considered significant. It also looks like it’s transitioning from cellular to broken-banded. Fun to watch it evolve.
Sure is!
Nice radar site.
The difference in wind directions (shear) between the ground and the cloud layer is what determines whether lake-effect is cellular or banded. The less shear you have, the more you’ll see banded lake-effect snow.
We have gone from flurries to a constant light snow for the past 30-45 mins…it’s a start.
News 3 says only 3-5 inches by the lakeshore according to their website
My sled will be getting alot of miles put on this week, gotta ride while ya can since it looks like next week it may start melting already!
I’ve been watching the radar all night…taking a break for an hour or so and hopefully I’ll be pleasantly surprised when I come back to it!
It looks like a band is forming over my head. Don’t look out the window, don’t do it, Matt….
CORT , In A Nutshell, What’s the difference Between Lake Affect, and Lake Enhanced Snow ?
As far as how I use those terms, it answers the question, “would it be snowing at all if the lake wasn’t there?”
If it would be snowing anyway due to a disturbance or low-pressure system, but the lake is adding to its intensity, then I say it’s lake-enhanced snow.
If we would not get any snow at all if the lake wasn’t there, then I say it’s lake-effect.
If it’s snowing but the lake isn’t enhancing it, like if our winds are coming from the east, then we would call it synoptic snow because it’s purely due to a low-pressure system (which is a synoptic-scale phenomenon, in meteorological parlance).
Thank – You Sir CORT !,
Anytime, Mr. Jack!
Winds aloft are still pretty good. Smoke/steam out of consumers energy stacks is taking a 90 degree turn to the west as it comes out. Not much time to build over the lake when it’s that windy yet.
For as slow as this event is getting started, I’m really quite impressed with the NWS’s latest precip outlook for the next 7 days. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif Well over 1 inch water equivalent in many areas. Granted that’s from this event, the synoptic event later in the week, & more lake effect next weekend. But still, figure snow to liquid ratios 20:1 to possibly as high as 30:1 with a lot of this in the cold air….. we could really be piling it up over the next 7 days!
Well I went outside at midnight to get my 1/20/13 snowfall, and I measured 0.9″. And maybe a trace since the warning officially started. Had constant light snow for the last 2-3 hours, but it’s been so light that it would take me about a week to mustard out an inch at this rate.
I just drove up to the alpine walmart and it is snowing lightly here….enough to cover roads and it was kinda a slick drive up 131. I hope we get more snow!
Looking at these bands setting up on radar.. Looks like there are oriented from west to east at this time
I may see some snow in the morning !
^^^^ New look. Ty Bill !
Btw, very lite snow falling here at the moment …
radar shows snow here but nothing