Sunday Night Snow

January 20th, 2013 at 3:56 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Snow intensities will pick up after midnight tonight.  It will be snowing and quite cold in most areas for the Monday AM commute.  For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here.  Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out  regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan.   Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime),  Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total precipitation for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map.  Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.       CARIBOU FORECAST TOTALS off the (NAM, GFS) in inches:  Grand Rapids (3.6, 3.1), Lansing (0.7, 1.7), Muskegon (6.4, 9.1 by Sat.), Kalamazoo (5.7, 4.0 – airport, west side of town gets more), Jackson (1.8, 2.0 by Weds. PM), Ludington (6.9), S. Haven (9.9) and the winner is Holland at 11.3″.   The European doesn’t give us a temperature warmer than 22F the rest of this week and the GFS is similar.   Enjoy!

 

230 Responses to “Sunday Night Snow”

  1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Dusting here as well, got power,which I am surprised. My flock is NOT impressed with this cold on their floppsy flipper pads, they are all back in their coop hunkered down but the door is open if they want to go back out but they are smart they know good soft warm straw is best. Anyone know if power is out on the ALpine area or 4mile/Eastbeltline area?

  2. Michele L says:

    Reporting from my deck in Princeton Estates (Kentwood), the sun is out….no snow falling at this time! Where is my Uncle Sparks?? Sort of missing his comments this morning! I will have to call Indy and make sure they are both ok…I am sure all of you are missing him!!! :)

  3. ptmartin(grandville) says:

    Is there an upper level disturbance that will get this LES going or is this it??

    1. Skot says:

      no…probably it.

    2. Cort S. says:

      Yes, there is a disturbance and a secondary cold front which will swing through tonight-tomorrow, leading to the heavier snowfall.

  4. Dan says:

    Just south of GR here. We receive about 1/2 inch of snow from early this morning! We also have been receiving on and off again snow showers. They can dump about 1/4 to a 1/2 inch of snow quickly! It makes the roads get tricky in a hurry as the temps are so cold. I think, its 16 degrees outside.
    We have a chance at a synoptic snow event. Temps are supposed to warm to the 20s. Then, another shot of Arctic Air. WINTER, SNOW and COLD! ITS ALL HERE!

    1. fixxxer says:

      for this week.

    2. Dan says:

      Seems to be indicating we MAY STAY cold into early and even mid February!
      You’ve got to love that a fixxxer?

      1. fixxxer says:

        Not what im seeing danny.

        1. Cort S. says:

          It’s trending toward continued below-normal temperatures going into next week too, sorry to tell you, fix.

        2. fixxxer says:

          Anything at this point is speculation cort.

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      Wait you said all long range models are garbage…now you’re citing one?

      1. fixxxer says:

        Didnt say it would be correct. Just pointing out this pattern change and cold air may not stick around like a few think.

        1. Cort S. says:

          That’s kinda paradoxical.

        2. Cort S. says:

          But saying it’ll continue through mid-February is a big shot in the dark, I’ll give you that.

  5. phlrnnr says:

    So why does the Lake Effect Snow Warning / Advisory start this evening when there has been Lake Effect all day? Is it supposed to get significantly worse tonight and tomorrow? What data supports that theory?

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      thats what I saw, the showers today are generally light…what confuses me is the warning starts at 7pm tonight but according to woods graphic on their weather forecast the snow gets cranked up around 6am Monday, not 7pm tonight…..again a HUGE discrepancy in time frame. Oh well Ill just consult the weather rock, as soon as he says 2″ has fallen the trucks roll.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        We have about two inches over in my part of Spring Lake with heavy bursts! Enough for you to start plowing, Todd!

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          Where about are you at Matt? I know I asked one time before….Since ALL of my business are closed Ill probably head out after dinner to get started, first time out (can not believe its Jan 20 and im talking 1st time out)lol oh well will be a nice easy plow the first trip through (till the real stuff starts tonight)

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Hey Todd, I’m in North Spring Lake Township near Rycenga Park. I seem to live in a bit of a snow belt, as I find that I often get more than even the mall area or the airport only 5 to 10 minutes away.

      2. Matt (Grand Haven) says:

        Todd, I would say there is only 1 to 2 inches at most here in GH. I had to clean up some 3″ drifts in a couple parking lots but nothing major. I also have a contact on fruitport rd half way between S.L. and Fruitport who said the same. Hope this helps and safe plowing!

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          YEA thanks, I think ill stick to my plan since I have no open businesses on Sunday. All my drives are contracted for 2-3″ so I think ill ride it out till this evening. Looks like a plow tonight, possibly turn around and plow daytime tomorrow, then again tomorrow night. 3 plows in 36hrs, now that sounds like a plan!

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Part of the NWS in GR discussion…

      “AT THIS POINT THINK THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FEEL THE
      HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE CENTERED ON ALLEGAN
      COUNTY.”

      I wouldn’t be surprised with that because with WNW-W winds we usually get hammered with the lake effect.

      Also the GFS gives me 10-12″, but I think about 2-4″? of that is for next Thursday/Friday.
      NAM gives me 12″. And I also see the NAM has put it’s first up to 15″ spot on the forecast map.

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Travis…I checked. Through 84 hours nam shows 10-12″‘ gfs shows 4-6″. Through 120, gfs up to 10-12″, so the gfs is probably showing another 4-6″ for the thu/ fri time frame.

      2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        That makes sense. I knew the GFS wasn’t handling the lake effect good, but wasn’t sure how much it was giving us for Thu/Fri.

  6. Sprites says:

    On and off moderate snow in Holland. Probably 1/2-1″ on the ground. Hard to tell because it’s been blowing around. Looks like things should get more organized and significant tonight!

  7. ~Sherry~(Comstock Park) says:

    Snowing off and on here. The times when it does snow, the snow is heavier then it was a couple of hours ago. I have power and did not lose it during the high winds but I know of other areas of Comstock Park that have had power outages. Looking forward to more snow!!

  8. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Good to see the wind has finally calmed down.. Just overcast at the moment here in Portland .. Maybe 1-3″ on the way later tonight into Monday ..

  9. Katie in Kentwood says:

    I have a light dusting of snow here in kentwood and it is bone chilling cold!! Took my dog out to go potty and didn’t even make it 5 minutes outside before I was running for the door lol

  10. Mikeyd says:

    Sun is out in Port Sheldon

  11. d says:

    The warning is in effect now.

  12. SW Kent says:

    Cold Air arrived just as predicted in early Jan….right on the 20th.
    Looking more and more like a major rain event early to mid next week.
    Enjoy the snow and cold for the next 7 days.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The rain storm that many of your talking about will end up as all SNOW! The models will have a better handle on these dynamics by the end of this coming week!

      1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

        i’ve kinda learned just to wait until a day or two before a major event before taking it seriously because this winter has been so strange. It could be snow (that would make sense) but with the way this winter is going… rain wouldn’t be all that surprising. It also wouldn’t be surprising for it to stay to our north/south (OR BOTH) and miss us! who knows…

      2. SW Kent says:

        Rocky, you have to admit, my forecast was consistent and accurate even when you were saying no snow in sight!
        Regarding the rain event next week, you are correct, they will have a better handle on it later this week, but as of now there is good model consistency that a warm rain will be in for a short time next week.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes, your prediction relating to when you thought the cold and snow would arrive was pretty darn good. As for the rain none of the models have any type of handle on the dynamic yet and the CPC has us squarely in the below normal temps and above average precip during this time frame! All SNOW! Get ready people – WINTER is here and there are no signs of any SPRING weather in sight!

        2. fixxxer says:

          Lol at anyone listening to rj.

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer thanks for listening, now go back under your ROCK!

  13. fred says:

    White knuckle drive 10-noon from Ludington to GR. Heavy snow bands evidently not showing up on radar or I wouldn’t have left. Low visibility and yes, blowing snow too. Wasn’t safe until Nunica/I96 exit.

  14. arcturus says:

    Nothing like winter arriving on Jan 20th. At this rate we’ll see little winter in the years to come.

    1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      well maybe spring will arrive in July?

      1. fixxxer says:

        Not looking that way mike. Wouldnt shock me at all if we get another early, warm spring.

        1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

          I was kidding… I think we will have a normal start to spring honestly. Nothing like last years spring.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      The decade from 2001 – 2010 was the snowiest decade in G.R. history. In December, a record was set for Northern Hemisphere snow cover: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Snow-Cover_thumb.gif (image from Snow Lab at Rutgers Univ.). I don’t think winter’s going away.

    3. Mike in Hamilton says:

      I guess we sent all of our winters to Russia…
      http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/

  15. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    From what I see on radar just missing out on the snow.

  16. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Yeah constant light snow showers here. we have a dusting but roads are beginning to get slick. Weather Channel believes the REAL snow will begin at 8-9pm. I’m kinda thinking that as well, as it cools off more and as the arctic air moves over the showers will pick up. The snow will definitely be flying with a solid layer already on the ground come tomorrow morning. Take it easy driving today/ tonight/ TOMORROW MORNING AND EVENING ESPECIALLY/ tomorrow nigh…. well basically this whole week will be messy. Be ready!

  17. d says:

    Does anyone wish the snow would fall during the day? I hate waking up and it is here. I wanna watch it fall.

    1. Don (Battle Creek) says:

      Same here…it’s just not the same falling at night.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m sorry you are missing the Lake Effect. My newly-arrived-to-Michigan nieces were enchanted by the big fat flakes we had for a while!! For the moment, they think Michigan is way prettier than California….LOL!! Of course, the potential for a snow day tomorrow also helps!

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I agree!!!

  18. John (Holland) says:

    East of Holland is up to 14″ on the NAM. Nice.

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready! Winter is about ready to begin. We will be seeing 3 to 5 inches of snow in the next 30 hours. Then a snowstorm on Thursday and then a SNOWSTORM the following week. Keep the COLD and SNOW coming – snowmobiling and skiing here I come. No golf till April!!

  20. fixxxer says:

    Glad the snow didnt amount to much here.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You will be crying 30 hours from now and then when we get another SNOWSTORM latter this week. Also the temps today are simply FANTASTIC! Mid to upper teens are just about perfect!!

      1. fixxxer says:

        No ill be laughing at you and your predictions.

      2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        It’s not going to amount to much in GR.

      3. David(Ashley) says:

        Ok I like winter but even you are a bit nuts if you think teens are about right.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Teens are perfect for winter sports because none of the SNOW melts. Just dress properly and get outside and enjoy WINTER in MICHIGAN baby! Or you could be like fixxxer and just whine and complain all Spring WINTER, Fall and Summer!!!!!!!!!!!

        2. fixxxer says:

          hey rj why don’t you go play some more virtual golf on your parents nintendo Wii.

  21. Nathan says:

    GR is under 10-12 on the GFS! It looks like Allegen, west Ottowa, western Kent, and southern/western Muskegon counties are in the hot spot!

    1. Nathan says:

      It appears the wind will be WNW to West according to NWS graphics and GFS snow amounts?

      1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

        Nathan. amounts will be isolated. Yea, it may show otherwise on the graphics. It wont be county wide. GR may see 3″ while Rockford may see 10″. This dry snow off the lake settles down quick also.

    2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      That’s 120 hours accumulative, not just lake effect.

      2-4″ will be lake effect through Wednesday and the rest will be from a system Thursday.

      1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

        Good point Harry !

      2. fixxxer says:

        honestly i don’t think anybody really knows what we will get.

        1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

          Fixx, i like your style !

        2. fixxxer says:

          well it’s the truth jeff but thanks.

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          That’s the best compliment fixxxy’s ever gotten on here!

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Quite possibly the only compliment.

  22. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We’ve got about two inches in the Spring Lake/Muskegon area with heavy bursts of snow continuing! The grass is almost completely covered…

    If you want to see some snow today, come on over to the lakeshore…but be careful! Roads are pretty bad, especially during squalls.

  23. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Hey guys! Hope everyone is having a good Sunday.

    First off just want to clear up some confusion here on the famous 120 Hour GFS and 84 hour NAM snowfall models.

    The NAM is 84 hours FORECAST from the time the graphic was issued. So if the model was issued at 2PM today it would be all the snow that falls from 2PM today, through 84 hours, which would be 2AM Thursday.

    The same goes for the GFS 120 hour forecast, except 120 hours would be 1 and a half days longer than the NAM.

    These two models don’t distinguish Lake Effect from Synoptic Storms.

  24. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    If the snow is going to become heavier than this, I can’t wait! We are getting nice sized snowflakes at a pretty heavy rate.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Had about an inch here. Comes down pretty good for awhile, then stops. They say the real show should get going around 7pm and be in full swing by 10 pm.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I am looking forward to it! It is about time the lakeshore got some snow…

  25. fixxxer says:

    geez i wonder where Jordan/deb/Johnathan is? i guess pinerest doesn’t allow computer usage.

    1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

      I have a feeling “they” are still here…

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Runrunner?

        Either that, or he is just a bitter person who likes to pick fights with people…

  26. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    When everyone that thinks they will get 10-15″ from this lake effect by Monday, are going to call it a “BUST” and be negative about it when really, they don’t know how to interpret the forecast models and maps.

    I still believe that we will have accumulations looking like this from the current lake effect and lake effect only,

    Grand Rapids – 2 to 4″ by Wednesday.

    Kalamazoo – 2 to 4″ by Wednesday.

    Battle Creek – 1.5 to 3″ by Wednesday.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Your estimates are close but a little low. Here are my preditions:

      GR – 4 to 6 inches
      K-Zoo 5 to 7 inches
      BC – 2 to 4 inches.

      Get ready to ROCK n ROLLLLLLLLL!

  27. Cort S. says:

    Haven’t seen anybody post this yet. It may have some information that you’re looking for.

    .UPDATE…
    ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING HEADLINES. ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING…SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY OWING TO INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5000FT AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS THAT ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG. THE WEAKER VERTICAL MOTION TODAY IS RELATED TO OUR POSITION TO THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. WE ARE JUST SOUTH OF IT AT THIS POINT. SO…WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE WE ARE PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS…BUT THEY ARE NOT HEAVY.

    THINGS CHANGE THIS EVENING HOWEVER WHEN WE PIVOT TO THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE DRIVING THROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND BOOST VERTICAL MOTION. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL DATA…EXPECT MUCH MORE ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION BY ABOUT 700PM…AND ESPECIALLY BY 1000PM. WILL LOOK AT SNOW AMOUNTS IN MORE DETAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TWEAK POTENTIALLY WITH THE 400 PM FORECAST PACKAGE…

    1. ptmartin(grandville) says:

      like it where is this from?

      1. Cort S. says:

        The National Weather Service’s forecast discussion. They’ll also have an updated discussion at 4 pm today, shortly after they release their updated forecast package.
        http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

        1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          Thanks Cort. Thought about posting it earlier but lost track.

    2. Lovely Snow says:

      Did you omit this paragraph intentionally? Just curious. This was the next portion of the post by the NWS from the same update.

      THINGS CHANGES THIS EVENING HOWEVER WHEN WE PIVOT TO THE CYCLONIC
      SIDE OF THE UPPER JET THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE DRIVING THROUGH. THE
      SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND BOOST
      VERTICAL MOTION. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL DATA…EXPECT MUCH MORE
      ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION BY ABOUT 700PM…AND ESPECIALLY BY
      1000PM. WILL LOOK AT SNOW AMOUNTS IN MORE DETAIL THIS
      AFTERNOON AND TWEAK POTENTIALLY WITH THE 400 PM FORECAST PACKAGE…
      BUT
      AT THIS POINT THINK THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FEEL THE
      HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE CENTERED ON ALLEGAN
      COUNTY.

      1. Lovely Snow says:

        OOPS!!! Sorry!!! MY bad! I didn’t see that is was there! I’m not paying attention.

        1. Jack says:

          The Teachers Ya Get NowDays!!! J/Kidding ya Lovely Snow… ;-)

  28. Jevon Murphy says:

    Well, I’m glad to back in W. MI for a decent L. Effect Snow event.

  29. Jevon Murphy says:

    Loving all the snow and cold!

  30. Lovely Snow says:

    …and then there is more to come…maybe….

    http://grib2.com/gfs/CANADA_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_120HR.gif

  31. kevin. w says:

    This is a joke here in Mt. Pleasant and especially at snowsnake in Harrison for winter sports. We went up there this morning and had a few bare spots on the ski hill and they were even making snow. So far this winter sucks just like last year in the inland areas. Looking at the longer range for snowstorms, well by the post from earlier about how bad Russia is having there winter I guess thats where winter is and going to stay this year. I might just have to get back into ice fishing up north in the U.P. where a few lakes I know have excellent perch, bluegill and other good fish to catch during the winter. It sure gettin’ old with no big snows to snowblow I guess the old blower will just keep collectin’ dust.

  32. Bald Eagle (montague) says:

    1″ maybe 2″. Not looking for much here! Never get alot of LES here. Just prolongs the life of my snowblower! LOL! Long time reader here on the blog & want to stay posting more! Thanks everyone for all the links & information! Will update later if I get some snow!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Your area gets good lake effect snow…Muskegon just hasn’t gotten much the past several years.

  33. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Did anyone see the cpc products they have us in above average precip for the next 2 weeks with below average. Temps

  34. Dan says:

    Cannot wait to read updated forecast from NWS! I will be stepping out for awhile but I will be returning to check in the blog and the latest from the NWS!
    3:00 pm update from my area: Has been snowing lightly since about 1:45! We were receiving heavy bursts of snow showers earlier now, it is steady and very light.
    Temp estimate to be about 18 degrees and overcast skies! Cannot wait until the Lake Effect cranks back up from the pivoting action!!

  35. Dan says:

    Correction 15 degrees! Not a lot of wind at this time.

  36. Nathan says:

    Lots of snow for Grand Rapids, especially my area. :) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=91681&source=0

  37. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    IWX (Northern Indiana) Forecast Discussion is talking about dry air will be limiting snow formation. It won’t stop it from happening, but delay the onset of snow/heavy snow from tonight, to tomorrow morning. The heaviest snow looks to now fall between 8AM and 5PM tomorrow before diminishing to flurries by evening.

    1. ptmartin(grandville) says:

      This whole LES thing may turn into a non event

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        That’s for south of here. The real event hasn’t even started in West Michigan yet.

        1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          It’s no different for Benton Harbor than Van Buren, Allegan, Holland… It’s the same lake and same dynamics.

          IWX opinion is high respected for this. Just as Gaylord (APX) and GRR.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yes, they are referring to their area though, not ours.

      2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        It will certainly be an event. The strongest event any of us have witnessed so far this snow season. There will be high amounts 8″+ in Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan, Kalamazoo, Van Buren and Berrien counties!

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Woo hooooooooooooooooo! :)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      1. This is for the southern row of counties and for IN.
      2. Yes the heaviest snow may be on Monday AM.
      3. The GR area will still be seeing at least 2 inches of SNOW tonight with plenty more on Monday!
      4. The dynamics in and around GR will be different than what is going to happen in IN!!

      Get ready – REAL WINTER WEATHER IS FINALLY HERE! Enjoy the ride!

      1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        Rocky, I respect your ambition, but the dynamics are the same.

        The heaviest snow won’t begin until tomorrow morning. This has been mentioned by Detroit, Northern Indiana and Gaylord forecast offices.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          We shall see! GR will be seeing moderate to heavy SNOW by 2 AM!!

        2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

          I agree with rocky. I think everyone that will be getting lake effect will see moderate snow falling by 2-3am.

  38. Lovely Snow says:

    That is the Northern Indiana Discussion. The Grand Rapids Discussion did not change much.

    ARCTIC AIR PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT
    ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS. IT APPEARS THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
    IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
    DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM MAY BRING US SNOW IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GET A BOOST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LOCALLY
    HEAVY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD THE LAKE WILL LIKELY
    REACH THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IN SPOTS BY MONDAY EVENING.

  39. Nathan says:

    We need an update! (If there are any changes)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Nathan, please don’t take this the wrong way, but you’re capable of looking the information up yourself.

      1. Nathan says:

        No, I was just wondering what Bills thoughts were because he is usually accurate.

        1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          I agree Nathan. Bill is very accurate.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Oh, ok. Bill doesn’t respond too much on here, unless it is a Global Warming/Climate Change post.

          He may send you an email with the answer though?

        3. Jack says:

          ARTIC BILL.. Is RUSHING IN.. Lol. ;-)

        4. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          He responds to several educated posts on here. Not much to wish-casting and negativity.

        5. Jack says:

          Nathan.. Bill, Has a New Thread…FYI !!!!!

        6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Harry, he does not respond that often on here. Who would want to respond to negativity or wish-casting? However, I would include the climate change posts as negative, wouldn’t you?

        7. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          No, I wouldn’t consider talking about climate or weather negative. And I’m not going to start an argumentative post battle against someone who clearly lacks acknowledgement of negative and positive posts.

        8. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Are you referring to me, Harry?

  40. Cort S. says:

    In lieu of posting a book, I’ll post the opening paragraph and the link to the rest of the discission. Here is the 4 pm GRR AFD, in which they take you though the ingredients which will come together to give us lake-effect snow and their thoughts on the forecast:

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN A CELLULAR MULTIPLE
    BAND SET UP. BURSTS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW OCCUR FROM TIME TO
    TIME…BUT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED. THINGS WILL CHANGE THIS
    EVENING.

    Read more: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      Very short and sweet forecast discussion.

  41. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I’m liking the new update from the GR NWS discussion! Sounding like extended heavier lake effect snow into at least Tuesday now.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Looking good! We will be seeing plenty of COLD air, moderate to heavy SNOW, A mainly WNW or West wind. It is coming together just as numerous people have been suggesting for the last couple days!! As for all of the non SNOW lovers who said we would see a dusting better luck next time. Yes that includes, fixxxer and storm waning!

  42. tim says:

    Sun is almost out in Holland! Calm before the storm?

  43. arcturus says:

    If the snow continues at its present pace I predict 5″ … by March.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      If you live in Detroit maybe :) Face the facts arcturus – you are WRONG and we have transitioned into REAL WINTER. We will be getting hammered with SNOW for the next 5 to 6 weeks. Get used to it!

    2. John (Holland) says:

      You always assume everything will continue at the present pace. We’ll never have winter again, 5 inches by March, etc.

      1. arcturus says:

        You guys crack me up.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          As in a “Glacier crack”?

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        lol. I like your posts, John. You call it like it is.

        It’s easier to do that than make a prediction.

  44. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    .SYNOPSIS…
    ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    ARCTIC AIR PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT
    ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS. IT APPEARS THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
    IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND POTENTIALLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
    DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM MAY BRING US SNOW IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GET A BOOST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LOCALLY
    HEAVY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD THE LAKE WILL LIKELY
    REACH THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IN SPOTS BY MONDAY EVENING.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN A CELLULAR MULTIPLE
    BAND SET UP. BURSTS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW OCCUR FROM TIME TO
    TIME…BUT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED. THINGS WILL CHANGE THIS
    EVENING.

    LAKE MICHIGAN IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING ONTO THE CYCLONIC
    SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS ALWAYS AN AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
    SCENARIOS BY PROVIDING A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOOST TO THE SNOW. MID LEVEL
    SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
    PROVIDING DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
    LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN INTENSITY BETWEEN
    700 PM AND MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS INDICATE MUCH STRONGER UVV/S
    HITTING THE LAKE THIS EVENING RISING FROM 2-4 MICROBARS OF LIFT TO 8
    TO 12 AFTER DARK. THIS SET UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. RH VALUES
    INCREASE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BUMPING UP TO 8 TO 10K FEET TONIGHT
    AND MONDAY. ALL OF THE FACTORS ARE PRESENT…MOISTURE…INSTABILITY
    AND LIFT WHEN IT COMES TO CONVECTION…IN THIS CASE LAKE CONVECTION.
    THE ONLY NEGATIVE WHICH HAS BEEN THERE THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE
    MODELS AND WE WILL SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT…IS A LOW…SHALLOW
    DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT FLAKE SIZE. FLAKE SIZE HERE AT
    THE OFFICE HAS BEEN SMALL. WE THINK FLAKE SIZE WILL BE BETTER
    TONIGHT INTO MONDAY…BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY THE LOW
    SHALLOW DGZ. LOCALIZED 6-10 IN THE WARNING COUNTIES AND 3-6 IN THE
    ADVISORY COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD AND MADE NO REAL CHANGES TO
    AMOUNTS AND FOR THAT MATTER HEADLINES.

    LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
    MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL LOSE A LITTLE PUNCH
    EACH PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING SHALLOW DGZ. THIS IS DUE TO THE CORE
    OF THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEADLINES
    MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME DECENT LIFT
    CONTINUES AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING.

    BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME A BIT OF AN ISSUE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
    CWA ON MONDAY AS THE WIND KICKS UP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

    .LONG TERM…(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
    ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
    THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
    LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH
    THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
    MOVES THROUGH. IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS GREATER
    POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY.

    IN ADDITION A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
    FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SOME SNOW INTO SOUTHERN
    LWR MI LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING A
    LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE
    FASTER/WEAKER WITH IT.

    AT THIS TIME WE PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE EVOLVING UPPER
    LEVEL PATTERN OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROF LATE
    IN THE WEEK AND IT/S CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
    AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
    TEMPS POTENTIALLY FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXT
    WEEKEND.

    &&

    .AVIATION…(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
    ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR TO IFR
    CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SNOW
    SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
    WNW TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
    TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY LATE
    MONDAY MORNING.

    &&

    .MARINE…
    ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    DROPPED THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS EARLIER AND NOW HAVE A
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
    WILL REMAIN AT SCA VALUES IT APPEARS INTO MID WEEK. THE PEAK IN THE
    NEXT COUPLE DAYS APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    &&

    .HYDROLOGY…
    ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    ICE JAMS REMAIN THE MAIN HYDRO CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
    ARCTIC AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND IT WILL ONLY GET COLDER AS WE
    MOVE INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY ICE JAM WE ARE AWARE AT THIS TIME IS THE
    ONE OCCURRING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR ROGERS DAM…WE HAVE NO NEW
    UPDATE ON THIS AREA. RIVER ICE FORMATION IS IN FULL SWING AND MORE
    ICE JAM ISSUES MAY CROP UP IN THE COMING DAYS. ANY PRECIPITATION
    THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

    &&

    .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
    MI…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
    MONDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071-072.

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
    MONDAY FOR MIZ044-057-065-073.

    LM…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

    &&

    $$

    SYNOPSIS…DUKE
    SHORT TERM…DUKE
    LONG TERM…LAURENS
    AVIATION…LAURENS
    HYDROLOGY…DUKE
    MARINE…DUKE

  45. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Huh, looks like the below zero lows for next week have changed upward.

    I am keeping an eye on the moisture aloft currently stradling the Minnesota/Canadian border. Unless the system pushes far enough East, that may miss us to the SW. We will know more in a few hours.

    Steelie

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The lows have been bumped up because we will be having more cloud cover and snow thus raising the low temps up a bit. Get ready we will be getting nailed over the next 36 hours!

      1. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        Well… yes and no. Yes – clouds are nature’s best insulator (most effective greenhouse gas) as we see evidenced many times over during Winter. Snow, a little less so. The nature of snow reflects sunlight (warming rays) away from the Earth. Regardless, it will be cool the next few days… ;-)

        Steelie

  46. Ben (Charlotte MI) says:

    Not a single flake on the ground here right now. So bored.

    Brutally cold arctic air with bare ground…. probably my least favorite type of weather.

    I need snow!!

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