Lake-Effect Snow Advisory Extended

January 21st, 2013 at 3:31 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    The Lake-Effect Snow Advisory has been extended until at least 5 PM.  Look for another 1-3″ of snow south, west and northwest of G.R. and a dusting east of G.R. for today/tonight combined. The winds will be strong enough to cause some drifting and keep wind chill temperatures between 10 and 15 below zero.  Roads will have slick spots, especially roads that run north/south.  This is the coldest morning in two years (zero as I write this in G.R.), -9 in Cadillac.  Somebody in northern Minnesota should hit -30 by daybreak.  I could see the moon almost set here in G.R. as the flurries tapered off and clouds thinned, but the snow showers should continue into Weds.   We’ll likely see 1-3″ of synoptic (not lake-effect) snow late Thurs. night into Friday.  Then a breezy, cold day on Saturday with snow showers mostly west of US 131.  Monday we could see another shot of synoptic snow.  Overall we warm back up into the low-mid 30s next week.  The GFS has some cold and snow to close out the month.    For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total precipitation for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.

98 Responses to “Lake-Effect Snow Advisory Extended”

  1. I give up, may spring come soon!

  2. Scott (west olive) says:

    Might want to keep the kid’s from reading this blog post any further. I bet it gets ugly. Lol. Let’s see…. nws = fail.

    1. Scott (west olive) says:

      Hey Rocky, you may go back to your regular programming of a No Snow Pattern.

      1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        Haha very true, very true!

        We can’t win can we?

      2. Jevon Murphy (Muskegon) says:

        Chicago still having an unfortunate snowless winter, and besides those two snow snowstorms/blizzards so is the mid-west. The drought persists, not much of a crop next year either!!!

    2. Jevon Murphy (Muskegon) says:

      The NWS doesn’t fail things just change, although the changes could be rather disappointing.

      1. Scott (west olive) says:

        When Fixxer can make better calls than nws, I call that a fail. LOL. Jk fixx. I was going after the 6-10.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha…well to give the NWS credit, they had been warning about small flake size possibly limiting snow amounts. They had us in the warning to let us know the potential, but the winter of 2013 won.

    3. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

      I know for a fact that my grandkids did the “snow day shuffle” where they wear their PJs backwards, put a spoon under their pillow and flushing ice cubes down the toilet much to their mom’s anger! LOL :D

  3. Jim S says:

    Unreal.

  4. Matt says:

    With the way winter has been for the last three years, I don’t believe any of the forecasts of 6-12″ of snow until I see it on the ground.

  5. Paul says:

    Congratulations President Barack Obama. Celebrate America and pray for our president and our country that we all will have a prosperous future. God Bless America!

    1. Jevon Murphy (Muskegon) says:

      God Bless!

    2. John (Holland) says:

      God have mercy on us and save us.

    3. chuckles says:

      Celebrate 4 more years of this idiot? I don’t think so. But I will be praying for America…

  6. North side of holland says:

    bust!

  7. Wait a second…now if they downgraded doesn’t that now mean we’re gonna get nailed? Atleast that’s the way it seems this year.

  8. MJ says:

    Seeking cross country ski conditions along WM. What are the actual inches accumulated? Are there weather pages or listings around that give current inches?

    #xcskiconcierge

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      I haven’t used my x-country skis in two years……

      1. Bob says:

        Me either

  9. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Thu/fri system looks weak. Maybe 1-2″. Near 40 by next week. No snowstorms in the long range. Cue Rob.

    1. Tim from Zeeland says:

      Had to look twice. Almost thought you were Rocky. lol Yes a bust here too so far.

  10. Jevon Murphy (Muskegon) says:

    So far, according to the models, nothing too significant in the next 8-10 days maybe a light clipper system or two, but other than that this rather small-moderate scale L. Effect snow event is it! Looking like a small moderation in the temps. sometime next week.

    Sorry for the bad news!

  11. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Still sticking strong with my predictions, which are probably overdone,

    Grand Rapids – 2 to 4″

    Kalamazoo – 2.5 to 3.5″

    Battle Creek – 1.5″ to 2.5″

    All by Wednesday.

  12. Ben (Charlotte) says:

    Lame.

    Although I’m happy to see about an inch of lake effect has made it to the Lansing area so far. I guess it’s better than nothing.

    I am officially giving up on this winter. Bring on spring.

  13. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    What a joke! I went to bed at 2am and was still under the warning, and I had 0.9″ of snowfall. I just woke up, and it’s snowing like crazy. We received 2.5″ in that 3.5-4 hours. And the flakes are pretty big. The advisory says we are only suppose to receive 2-4″ by this evening…hmmmm.

    1. Told ya! I said as soon as they cancelled the warning that we would get nailed and now look!!! Screw tHE NWS

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      How much snow do you have in Hamilton? Looks to be snowing pretty good there too.

      1. As of 2:30 PM we have about 5 inches with current whiteout conditions.

  14. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    OHHHH INDY!!!! I’ll take that Green Apple Smirnoff now ;-)

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Hahaha!

  15. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Seems like Ottawa and Allegan and maybe Barry counties should be under the warning? Those darker blues on the radar are adding up to about 1″ per hour snowfall. Also, the 06Z NAM is giving me 12″ more of lake effect.

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Who knows!!

    2. tinainvbcounty says:

      They need to stop listening to NWS and just regurgitating what is being put out by them, and instead open a door/window or listen to people who live in the area and can see the “flake size” and intensity! Same thing happened with the wind advisory vs. Wind warning the other night. For hours reports came in of damage and problems suggesting that perhaps not all was as models suggested, but nothing was adjusted during those HOURS of weather. And if you aren’t in a 30 mile radius of GR, it seems the forecast gets even worse! Anyway, I’m not trying to be mean to anyone at NWS or anywhere else, just my honest impressions! :)

  16. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Looking the like the lake effect is still intensifying. The snow is moving farther west over Lake Michigan, and the radar looks to be filling in off the shore line of Van Buren County.

  17. tinainvbcounty says:

    Just broke the news to the kids about the bust. They were not amused! :/

  18. Brad (Lawrence) says:

    Rocky (Rockford) says:

    January 20, 2013 at 7:39 pm

    There will be multiple school closings and delays on Monday!

    I guess if you call 5 schools multiple, then you win Rocky… :P

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes I would say 5 is a multiple number, however we do not have as much snow as the NWS or the RDB model predicted yet! Give it time people – the lake effect is currently picking up in coverage and intensity!

      1. Andy says:

        Two of those closings were because of boiler problems too!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Andy – ALL the schools in the Wayland Union system did not have boiler problems…LOL!! We are closed due to SNOW. I just shoveled at home and at work – we have 4-5″ on the ground in places that “blow clean” – so I’m guessing we’ve had 6+ inches since yesterday?? And it’s snowing like CRAZY at the moment. The LE Snow Machine is hard at work here in Shelbyville/Wayland

          And yes, I’m a happy, HAPPY girl!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)

      2. Brad (Lawrence) says:

        Yeah…just in time for schools to officially be open, then call parents halfway through the day saying they are sending kids home due to road heavy snow conditions. They do it down here ALL the time. It becomes a nightmare for parents who are working.

        1. tinainvbcounty says:

          The forecasting has been so off this winter, it has to be even harder for school officials to make good calls on weather related closings. When we got up there was a couple of flakes, and everyone in the area was downgraded. As the kids got on the bus, it suddenly picked up. If we stay in this band, I have to agree with Travis…. a more precise and individual forecast needs to be made customized to each county, as some may very well be in a warning criteria.

      3. Rumrunner says:

        It is? LOL C’mon, you set yourself up for this failure. Sure, it’s going to snow some more, but not nearly the amount you called for. And the only reason there is mass school closings today is because of MLK. LOL

      4. Rumrunner says:

        Want to double down on this?

        Rocky (Rockford) says:
        January 19, 2013 at 7:09 am
        That’s right INDY – all of the naysyers will be eating their words before this event is over! Bring on the BLIZZARD! ROCK N ROLL lives on!!!!

  19. Stacsh says:

    I was right!!!!

  20. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    3.5″ since 2am. 4″ overall on the ground. Averaging around 0.5″ per hour snowfall rates.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Travis – are you in a wooded or protected area?? I can never get an accurate read on snow because I get so much drifting, both at home at and work. But yes – we have a LOT of snow – no grass in sight. When the plow comes through, I know I’ll have a foot-and-a-half of LE at the end of my driveway…LOL!

  21. Jules says:

    Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Busted again!

  22. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Channel 17 is giving me another 4-6″ by late tonight/early tomorrow. The NWS and channel 17 are also suggesting a lull in the action tomorrow afternoon before the lake effect picks up again late Tuesday through Wednesday with 3-5″ expected in the snowbelt areas.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Wednesday is looking pretty good for snow here as winds turn Southwesterly.

      Several inches on the ground. The grass is gone for the FIRST time this winter.

  23. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    BUST…just can’t get moisture up in our area, for the last 2 years.

  24. SBPortage002 says:

    Snowing really good here now. Maybe a half mile visibility. And steady.

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      We have picked up now too. Steady small flakes.

  25. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    SHORT TERM
    (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
    ISSUED AT 318 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

    FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH THE ONGOING HEADLINES AND
    THE SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

    RADAR HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
    PAST FEW HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IS NO DOUBT PLAYING A
    ROLE HERE BY INCREASING LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ. HOWEVER…SINCE THE
    AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO COLD AND THE DGZ IS SO
    LOW…SNOWFLAKE SIZE HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM. ADDITIONALLY… THE
    DGZ ISN/T PARTICULARLY THICK EITHER. AS A RESULT I DON/T SEE THIS
    CHANGING MUCH TODAY AS EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT
    WAVE. WHAT I THINK WE/LL SEE IS A STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
    MODERATE SNOW OVER THE THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT…WE
    DOWNGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
    ADVISORY. IT/S STILL POSSIBLE WE/LL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE
    LAKESHORE EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH KALAMAZOO COUNTY.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I think they issued this right BEFORE the lake effect finally started to intensify. Looking like I’m on my way to the warning criteria of 6-10″ that was first forecasted…

      1. Irish coffee says:

        The NWS “kiss of life” in this case?!;)

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          LOL!! I’m hoping they say “no snow” then…. ;-)

  26. Yup (Grandville) says:

    I’m just happy we have a little bit of snow!

  27. SBPortage002 says:

    Snowing harder. Hardest it has snowed all winter here so far. Everything is covered.

    1. johnnie(vicksburg) says:

      Same here. Funny but this is the most snow Well have had yet. The snow is very dry and the air is full of it. Well have 2 1/2 inches so far here in Vicksburg. Keep it coming !!

  28. tim says:

    To the TV8 Meteorologists: I’ve had it with the hipe. It’s fricken winter, I don’t need to hear how to be careful for icy spots, or that snow is going to be 2″ or 10″, or how to dress my kids at the bus stop……… just do your best a takin’ a shot a what it’s going to do in this next day or two, and stop being so dang vain in thinking you know what the heck it’s going to do 8 or 10 days from now! Your weather forecasters, not prophets. Also, be willing to admit you suck at it once in a while. It would help your weather broadcasts alot. You always predict and then when it doesn’t go that way, you act like you were right the whole time with your new predictions. You’re human just like everybody else here. Sorry, but after reading about 550 posts here in the last 2 days, I have to vent.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      I hear what you’re saying and share your frustration with how things are panning out, but I don’t think meteorologists should have to constantly hedge and beat the dead horse that they are predicting, not foreseeing, the weather.

      Confidence is confidence in the prediction based on interpreting current conditions with statistics, and nothing more. Everything they say is subject to later developments, and if the general public understands that, they won’t be shocked when things change, even drastically.

      I think mets are constantly treated like failed prophets by those who are disappointed by and those who dissented from the forecasts alike. Prophecy isn’t their gig, however.

      I do totally agree about the mindless suggestions about driving and dressing. But I suppose common sense is so rare that some people actually do need that kind of information.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        TL;DR – I don’t believe meteorologists believe they are prophets. The onus is on the public to correctly understand the nature of weather forecasts.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        Or they choose to ignore the advice anyway. Having just helped enroll my 2 nieces at middle school/ high school – I was astounded at the kids walking around outdoors in tennis shoes and hoodies. No jackets. And shorts. Yes, SHORTS.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Signs of a mild winter….my students do that too.

          I remember wearing shorts to school when I was a teen. Teenage boys do NOT get cold very often.

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          Matt – I think it’s all those raging hormones…LOL!!

    2. Meterologists make predictions based on weather knowledge, forcast models. Yes they are wrong sometimes, but gosh ! Complain on your living room like normal people do. Could you imagine what your life would be like if you had to just let whatever weather just come to you….

    3. Dan says:

      tim: post a weather forecast!

  29. GunLakeDeb says:

    I’m sorry for all those who are experiencing a “bust” on the forecast – I know how that feels. But for us – it was dead-on accurate. Lots of snow/icy roads/drifts. Started snowing around 7 PM last night – and when I let my dogs out at 6 AM, we had about 4″ on our deck and it was snowing HARD. And it’s clearly LE, because the sun is shining behind me, yet to the NW it’s dark and visibility is about 1/2 mile.

  30. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    If the hype bothers you, then you should probably switch to another news/weather source. A lot of us enjoy the weather chat on here, that’s why we’re here! One thing I hope we can all agree on, is that it is very beautiful outside today :)

  31. Tom L says:

    I was just out driving on Alpine Avenue, up in the Comstock Park area. The road conditions are very bad, folks! As we all should know, the road salt they use here in our region does not work very well at all in temperatures below (about) twenty degrees. So….slow down and watch out for the other guy, or gal driving infron/behind/next to you. Give yourself plenty of time to get to where you are going and, just one more time, slow down on the road!!
    :)
    OK…now, back to the weather….

  32. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    Just took a Trip to Wesco….. holy bad roads! Solid snow/ice and maybe 1/2 visibility at best. Then the wind gusts and it drops to zero.

  33. Brenda C (Otsego) says:

    Heavy snow banding here, really piling up now!

  34. Mike in Hamilton says:

    Looks like southern Allegan Co is really getting nailed right now. That dark band on the radar has been sitting right there for a while… Anybody from South Haven, Glenn, or Pullman area on here to confirm?

    1. Brenda C (Otsego) says:

      I can only confirm Otsego and it’s been steady all morning, really starting to pile up.

  35. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Got 3.5″ up here so far!!!

  36. Dan says:

    I’m not so sure I would say this is a bust! Perhaps, we are going to get to those snow totals especially, closer to the LAKE! It is the most snow I have seen yet this Winter. I would say there is about 3 to 4 inches of snow and its still snowing at a good clip! No bust here! I said the Lake Effect Snow Machines would get cranking and that IS what is happening. I bet, we receive just shy of 6 inches of snow!! Colder weather forecasted for later today and tonight!

  37. michigan won says:

    Why are all of you winter lovers still writing about what it’s doing outside. Stop talking about it and go outside and enjoy the freezing cold and snow you’ve been complaining you’ve been without for the last 3 months. GO OUTSIDE.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m at work now; but I’ve been outside much of the morning – and as soon as my son gets his horse trailer out of the way – I’m going snowmobiling. Not going to waste one moment of this – because we don’t know how long it will last…..

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Just for you, Michigan won – I just got back from a lovely snowmobile ride down the locals trails :-) I’m glad I can type a smiley because I think my face is frozen…holy windchill!!

    2. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Some of us HAVE TO WORK.

  38. Don (Battle Creek) says:

    Snow is falling pretty steadily here now…probably the heaviest I’ve seen it all winter so far.

  39. GunLakeDeb says:

    On my “drive to work” (one mile…LOL!) the visibility was about 100′ it was snowing/blowing so hard; now the sun is peeking out. I’m on the edge of a snowband, clearly….

  40. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Funny from I’d say 13mile Rd from Rockford/Sparta line South heavy snow this morning while driving to/from the boys school to a “Split from 14mile North” than dark clouds I’d say around the Big Rapids area. Sun shining up here without a flake in sight, although my flock ran out, hunkered down and said hell with it, ran back inside their enclosure, no pools filled today for them little footsies.

  41. Redd_Leader (Hamilton) says:

    Report from West side of Hamilton (Closer to Saugatuck):
    Can still easily see the grass. Snow bands are currently coming by every 15 minutes or so, and lasting for 5 minutes.
    Total snow cover in open areas is less than an inch.

    As is typical with LES, I’m sure there are areas within 10 miles of my location that have more snow, so I guess that the snowmobiles will have to be on the trailer to go find it.

    As far as the forecasting goes, first of all I suspected all along that this event was over-hyped. I’m not blaming Bill, or any of the other local forecasters, but instead the NWS, paid for with my tax dollars is really missing the mark too often. I miss the days when Bill, and the other local guys would give their own forecasts. Instead nowadays it seems like it’s just a re-hashing of the NWS forecast, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that’s just the way the Government, in their infinite wisdom requires forecasting to be reported.

    As an EXTREMELY amateur forecaster myself, I could see that the moisture aloft West of us yesterday at this time was not conducive to an organized LES event. Even so, I took today and tomorrow off (I work second shift) so that I could take my 14 year old son on his first ever snowmobile expedition into the Allegan County trail system.

    Bill, correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t forecasters/meteorologists nowadays confined to a limited amount of how far they can stray from the NWS outlook?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I hope some of these bands go your direction and your son gets that trip!! This was my first time on the trail system – and I was blown away by the “road signs” and directional information!

  42. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    It’s been snowing about an inch per hour in Marshall for the past several hours. About 3.8 inches so far.

  43. tinainvbcounty says:

    From a trucker FB friend “just don’t get on the *****ing highway!” US 131 at D Ave. Kalamazoo ….

  44. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Hurry April!! :)

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Tom,

      Florida is pretty nice right now ;)

  45. Scott (west olive) says:

    Well if it keeps this up we might hit the 6 inch before midnight. Nice normal snow in Holland right now.

    1. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

      just shoveled about 1.5 inches here. Gets heavy then gets sunny and repeats

  46. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    Typical lake effect snow, only about an inch since 7:00 am. But it’s cold!

  47. SE GR says:

    It’s snowing really hard out here by the airport. Visibility is low and winds are making it worse. This is the hardest I’ve seen it snow so far today!

  48. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    On our way home this afternoon from Post Rd we hit white out conditions around 13-14mile road and my boys are hoping for a snow day tomorrow, told them doubt it! Boy I’m looking forward to my Smirnoff’s from Indy!! ;-)

  49. Keaton says:

    I was wondering how cold it has to be for schools to get a cold day in MI?

  50. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Cold…cold! I have received 3.5 inches of snow and I am ready for Spring. :)

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