Flood Watch – Fog Advisory

January 28th, 2013 at 2:36 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  This is the HPC 5-day precipitation forecast (click to enlarge).  That’s a LOT of rain for W. Michigan and much of the eastern U.S., especially considering this is January (wish we could pull the area a little to the west to help the dry parts of W. OK up into S. Dakota).   The G.R. National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning.  Model data suggests 1 1/2″ to an isolated 2 1/2″ of rain will be possible thru Weds. PM.   The combination of the rain and melting snow could cause significant rises in area rivers.  There is also a fair amount of ice in the rivers and ice jams are a possibility.  There is also a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire area until 7 PM tomorrow (Tues.).     The European would take the G.R. temperature to 56 Tues. PM (I could see an isolated 60 degree reading S or SE of G.R.), with steadily falling temps. on Weds., a high of 21 on Thurs. and maybe 15 on Friday.  Temperatures in the snow on Sat. would be in the low 20s.   The GFS has a similar high of about 56 Tues. night, but down to 28 by Weds. evening and mid teens for Thurs. PM.  The NAM is 57 for Tues.  Friday we might get to +16 with mid 20s on Saturday.   Lake-Effect snow could be moderate to heavy in a few bands that develop from Weds. night to Thurs. night.   So after this wonderful weekend for winter sports…it gets to 55…the cold and snow come back and ski areas (with a little help from the snow guns) could very well be back to very good conditions for next weekend.   You gotta love Michigan weather!

Lots of REALLY warm air to our south.  Columbia, Missouri tied their warmest day ever in Jan. with a high of 77 on Monday.  Other daily records:  66 Quincy IL, 74 Kansas City MO and Wichita KS and 80 at Wichita Falls TX.

297 Responses to “Flood Watch – Fog Advisory”

  1. kevin. w says:

    I went for a walk a while ago and saw over a dozen robins in a crab apple tree, now thats a little crazy. I do know some of them winter here in Michigan but they can’t really be starving that much but who knows.

  2. Nathan says:

    I am feeling really sick and I think I might pass out and no one is home… Im sitting at the computer. Breathing fast…

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Call the doctor, they will return your call or if you are that concerned call 911

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        What about a neighbor? Family cell phones? Have you ever suffered panick attacks, they can feel simular as well.

    2. Uncle sparkee says:

      you need medical smokeys boy!

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Ya, that’s the answer.

  3. INDY says:

    BILL this blog has thee same old IDIOTS on here I really think it’s one person with 33 names that needs a job life and a sprite!!Just come back from the B and C side streets are becoming slippery slow down u all, I hope the kids have school becouse humpday they all will be home again with the flash frezz coming ..Stay tuned INDHYY…

    1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

      It’s Jordan.

  4. Brad says:

    Hi temperature records were smashed in Missouri today.

    Massive flooding in Queensland: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21226178

    It’s time to prepare for the failure of global agriculture, folks. Change is here.

    1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

      Hey Brad I have a couple of questions for you. If co2 is so bad then if humans quit burning fossil fuels do you think weather extremes won’t happen?

      Do you think that more extreme flooding is caused by more of the earth being paved over or is it something else?

      When humans weren’t on the the earth how was the weather then?

      Thanks.

      1. Brad says:

        On the floods, you’re talking urban “flash flooding” vs. regional floods. If regional floods were caused by paving, you wouldn’t see severe floods in rural areas.

        1. bobcat says:

          So you can’t answer the questions. Not really surprising.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      The “FAILURE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE!!!” QUICK…GET BRAD ANOTHER SHOT OF HYPERBOLE!!!

      1. Brad says:

        Hey- you’re the one with the hyperbolic reaction! I contend the increase in human population and increase in weather disasters will buffet global agriculture in the coming decades. Take it or leave it.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          I leave it. You guys have been alarming about population growth for many decades. At the Univ. of Wisconsin, part of their indoctrination was forcing us to read “The Population Bomb” by Paul Ehrlich. It was a litany of horror from population growth…massive famines that were coming that never came! Man and the Earth grow plenty of food to feed well beyond our current population – 10 times that if we all became vegetarian. And population is shrinking across Europe, Russia, China, Japan – here in the U.S. only immigration has kept out population numbers steady to a very slight increase.

          The increase in “weather disasters” is largely because we have spread out from the cities to the suburbs and beyond. There’s more for tornadoes to hit. And we’ve built on barrier islands that were totally unoccupied…built to the Jersey shore where there is great damage when there was little damage 100 years ago from even stronger storms than “Sandy”. With much more available transportation and communication, we don’t have to be all crammed into cities. We have spread out and become a bigger target…but as I have shown on this blog…the number and intensity of weather events is not increasing.

        2. Brad says:

          C’mon, Bill, you’re one of the most indoctrinated folks I read…combining hard-line Christianity with Ayn Rand-style objectivism. It’s an interesting combination. What I have to remind myself is ideologies are impenetrable to facts and data- hence peculiar phenomena like “Unskewed Polls,” etc.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          When politically-driven ideology fails, as Ehrlich’s book certainly did – it’s time to abandon that failed philosophy and move on. When you predict snowfall will practically disappear: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

          …and it doesn’t happen…in fact there is an INCREASE in snowfall: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201112-201202.gif It’s time to be open-minded…progressive…and explore other concepts, theories and ideas. You, Brad are the regressive, set in ideologically-driven blinders that force you to follow whatever leftist is ranting at the current time.

          I went to college with an open mind…not willing to blindly accept what I was taught. Coming to my political and religious perspectives on my own is a threat to people who hope that simple indoctrination will be the means to control, regulate (everything down to the light bulb you use) and limit the freedom that is clearly, historically the best method of accumulating and growing the wealth that people like you are so intent on confiscating and redistributing to your crony friends (LG Chem, Solyndra, etc.). BTW, did you hear about all that oil money that Al Gore is collecting?

        4. Brad says:

          Bill, that screed reads like something John Stossel would write. You’re not independent. You’re living in the Right-wing bubble. I bet you believe the earth isn’t billions of years old, too.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s your ideas that are old, Brad…population-phobia, and climate alarmism.

          CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UQcaYvJyGSo

          Even Hansen admits that global temperatures have leveled off: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          The global climate models that the climate profiteers use are, as Dr. Judith Curry has said, “deeply flawed”.

        6. Brad says:

          LOL, and the sure mark of a right-wing ideologue is a polemic on Paul Ehrlich, and fits a pretty simple logical fallacy- the “this guy was wrong on the details of X, therefore X is untrue.” Your blown winter forecast last year, using this logic, would doom you to meteorological irrelevance, but you choose to not use the same (il)logic to judge yourself.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Even James Hansen has a more open mind than you do, Brad – you are so politically-driven to control, regulation (and eventually bankruptcy) that you can’t even acknowledge what even the most radical of profiteers has been (by fact and data) forced to concede. Look again: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          Confiscating the hard-earned money of the middle and lower class to waste of boondoggles like LG Chem and Solyndra doesn’t help the environment, doesn’t make the water cleaner, doesn’t change global temperature. It takes money away from projects and programs that do work. You have to learn to accept that.

        8. Brad says:

          I notice you’re not addressing my points but making unsubstantiated claims about my politics (probably because your understanding of politics is strictly authoritarian/ideological, derived from the mental apparatus that frames your religious beliefs).

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          LOL – My perspective on global warming has NOTHING to do with my spiritual philosophy…NOTHING! If I were atheist, Buddhist or even if I worshiped government (!)…NOTHING would change. I would still be opened-minded and accept the facts, data and logic that imply that catastrophic global warming from CO2 is not the #1 threat to civilization that the alarmists and profiteers preach. I have addressed your points, as I see fit. I’m not here to act as your interviewee. I’m taking you back to the issue at hand. Global warming theory is showing many cracks and crumbles. Even the most rabid of climate profiteers is admitting that global temperatures have leveled off:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          The other most rabid of climate profiteers has sold out to oil money from Qatar.

          It’s time for you and your ilk to be more open-minded. We have to stop wasting money on boondoggles and rewarding cronies. We have to stop the free-fall to bankruptcy. We have to look to new ideas and dismiss the old failed ideas that are clearing melting in the sunlight of fact and data.

        10. Brad says:

          “Open-minded” meaning Republican. LOL. Too funny.

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          There’s a lot of Democrats who question catastrophic climate change from CO2. Just like the over 700,000 Obama supporters who voted against Proposal 2

      1. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        And then… there was the “great flood” which many believe eventually becxame the story of Noah. This was less a climatological event as it was a geological event. Evidence is fairly clear that the Mediterranean and Black Sea were once separated by a slim “natural berm” that eventually failed leading to the Mediterranean inundating the Black Sea turning it from a fresh water inland sea to a salt water sea. Pretty interesting…

        Steelie

      2. Cupcake says:

        Oh No, Bill!! That’s exactly where I will be on Friday!

  5. Brad says:

    How is the scale adjusted? This looks like a typical graph that “recenters” average.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      A graph can have a very steep or an almost non-existent increase or decrease depending on the scale that is used.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    You know that it is slow weather night when the blog is cluttered with all of this global warming debate. It is like beating your head against a wall. Both sides just cherry pick their numbers and the madness continues. Ridiculous!

    1. INDY says:

      Yeaaaa fake bots that don’t have any oil!!! rust rust!! INDY!!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Forget the rain. We have a lot of SNOW on the way. Lake effect, clippers and system SNOW are all on the way. The JEM model is still on track for a blizzard the week of 2-4-13 and the RDB model shows 4 to 6 inches of snow this week and two system snows in the first half of Feb. Get ready to ROCK n ROLL. If you like winter weather you are going to be very happy! COLD and SNOW will rule baby!!!

  8. Uncle sparkee says:

    eeeekkkks!!!

  9. Uncle sparkee says:

    your ol uncky sparks got a little wet when the ice let loose, thank the heavens to hell water your ol aunty edna was their to pull me out. Tokes alerted her that i was in abit of trouble. anyway the fish was great!! I think your ol unky sparks will varmit hunt tomorrow!!

    1. INDY says:

      Uncle Sparks time to put Edna in a home or cut the hair, she better be out of the house Friday when INDY and family move in for the Hardball Bowll….U copy???? going to be verry snowy like that Blizzard we had a few years agao when the Colts won it…..U ran out of wood and the outhouse when up in smoke member that it was cold snowy that week’nd the women had it with us………INDYY….

      1. Uncle sparkee says:

        yeahhhhh, gettin the disco ball of yarn out!

  10. Brad says:

    Off to exercise- maybe I’ll see some Right-wingers as I pass by the Old Country Buffet! Peace out.

    Bill, I await my earnings for absolutely nailing this week’s weather with my January 15 blog post. Like a Barry Bonds home run into McCovey Cove, minus the steroids. :-)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      You’re more likely to see Michael Moore at Old Country Buffet: https://twitter.com/ChipCheezum/statuses/236322877127938049

      1. Uncle sparkee says:

        Guns smokeys 4X4s and aunty ednas erb bread, right wingers r green n lean. beware of the dog, tokes!

      2. INDY says:

        yeaaaa that fat A$$ ……INDYY..

        1. Brad says:

          Indy, rumor has it you’re a “big fella” as well…

  11. Todd In Nunica says:

    Just outside playing with the kid and its below freezing here…things icing up fast. Didn’t think it was going to get below freezing tonight, must be all this snow pack we have. (still sitting on 6-8″ here)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Same here. I was wondering if the snow would freeze up. Might help it to last a bit in the thaw. The snow is DENSE now.

      1. Todd In Nunica says:

        Yea it is! We were going to build a huge snowman but could not get the snow to stick, was weird we could make awesome snowballs but no luck rolling it around to make the snowman…..then on my way to the garage I about fell on my arse on the deck (when I realized “hey its below freezing)…lmao

  12. arcturus says:

    New normal is showing decent Torcon values for MS … in January no less. Looks like Reed Timmer will need to start chasing twisters earlier and earlier.

    1. INDY says:

      NEVER NEVER HAPPEN…..NEW NORMAL!!!!!! REALLY OK IDIOT 33…..INDYY..

      1. arcturus says:

        Touchy, aren’t we? Certainly shows your character.

        1. INDY says:

          AHHHHHHHHHH..PLEASE!!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      January Tornado Climatology: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/01/02/u-s-tornadoes-the-month-of-january-by-the-numbers/ Average # of tornadoes in January since 1950 = 20. Number of tornadoes in Jan. 2013: 11. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

      1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

        Bill you know facts don’t work with Brad, bDBC, arcturus, and the other people. I mean just look at their terminology over the years, like global warming, global weirding, and now climate change, after all we were heading into an ice age in the late seventies.

        1. Brad says:

          Robert, I am a rational, logical, scientific person. I understand your difficulty in approaching me.

        2. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          Brad if you were rational you would realize extreme weather events are nothing new. All I here is new normal, what is that, climate has never been static, and human activity may have a very small effect , unless we decide to control the weather then all bets are off (not co2 related).

        3. Brad says:

          Robert, do you have a link to your papers? If not, I’ll continue to read the folks who know what they are writing about. Thanks!

        4. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          Oh Brad I have a lot more if you want them.

          http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/27/expert-predicts-monsoon-britain/

        5. Brad says:

          You guys all source the same few “scientists.” I meant your papers, as you insinuated you know more about climate than the folks who actually study climate.

        6. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          So Brad where are your papers and not from other scientific people like you say you are.

        7. Brad says:

          I am trained in science, hence I know what to look for when perusing the primary literature (not blogs).

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          “trained in science” can mean many things…even “political science”. What is your training in climate science and meteorology?

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Nice.

    3. Cort S. says:

      Dixie tornadoes in winter months are not uncommon.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwcQgXjjTbA
      According to that, from 1982-2011, their daily risk of tornadoes in January is about the same as Michigan’s daily risk in April/May and July/August.

      1. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        True… remember the Christmas tornadoes just a few weeks ago…?

        Steelie

  13. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Oops – typo – collegue.

    Steelie

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Lots of lake effect SNOW and ARCTIC air is on the way!! You gotta love the COLD and SNOW. I love it!!! All the warm weather freaks can go back under their rocks starting on Wednesday!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      You SIR, are CORRECT !!! It’s Winter Time in MICHIGAN !!!!! Ye OLE JEM Model, Still Indicates a HUGE SNOWSTORM , for Week of 2/4/13……… TIme 2 CUE :TED NUGENT- WANGO TANGO – YouTube

      ► 5:02► 5:02
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqFUEcM9wR0
      ;-)

  15. INDY says:

    Hey uncle Jack how about a IDIOT song the blog has a few on here tonight!! INDYY…..

  16. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Oh I am so hoping for some thunder boomers up my way tomorrow. It sure would be nice. Anyone know what Thursdays weather has in store around 2-3pm?

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Thunder snow in January would be better.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I was thinking that last night, listening to the thunder and wishing it was snowing….

    2. Cort S. says:

      Thursday looks like a return to lake-effect snow, with temperatures in the upper teens. Hard to say if Cedar Town will get that snow. You know how fickle LES is in your area. If you see snow, accumulations will only be minor.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I don’t care rather we get it up here I’m looking at possible flight delays Thursday with flights coming in from Detroit to GRR.

    1. Steelie says:

      Good Day,

      Reminds me of way back in the day when I worked at a 50′s theme bar. Even had a pink Caddy on the floor…

      Steelie

      1. Jack says:

        Steelie, Wild Guess if ya Please, Was That Place Called… SHOUT.!!! In Easttown ????????

        1. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          Indeed!

          Steelie

        2. Jack says:

          Hee, hee…I knew it ! I was known 2 , Partake of a FEW 2 MANY !!! LITTLE KINGS ! They used 2 serve at SHOUT.. I also miss The Good OLE, Eastown Saloon Days. Saw at of and Partied With a lotta of Country Rock Bands , Back Then… ;-) . Ahhh thee Memories ( what in can remember at least ) Lol… Peace my Brother ! :-)

        3. GunLakeDeb says:

          “Cabbage Creek”?? or was it Cabbage Crick? It’s been a few years….LOL!

  17. Beth says:

    Interesting that the fog advisory is now extended until 7 PM. I don’t think I have ever seen that before.
    I hope we don’t have school delays! I have morning meetings!

  18. Cort S. says:

    .UPDATE…
    ISSUED AT 850 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013

    WITH THE EVENING FCST UPDATE WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG
    ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A CONSENSUS
    OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
    DENSE AND WIDESPREAD TUESDAY IN SPITE OF STRENGTHENING WINDS AS
    RAPID SNOW MELT OCCURS RESULTING IN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
    IN ADDITION DEW POINTS TOMORROW SHOULD SURGE UPWARD THROUGH THE
    40S. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OF
    SFC VISBYS BELOW A MILE SHOW VERY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
    DENSE FOG TOMORROW.

    ALSO IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
    ALREADY IN EFFECT… THE DENSE FOG ATTM IS CONFINED TO AREAS JUST
    SOUTH OF I-94 OFF TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
    FOG OVER OUR AREA WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY
    LATE).

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      So could there be school closings again (btw I’m not going because I’m sick, just curious anyways)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Doubt closings but 2hr delays, but you never know.

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      I drove to Three Rivers today. Some of the most dense fog I’ve ever seen. Like driving in a blizzard.

      1. Jack says:

        I for 1 would Rather Drive in A Blizzard, than DENSE FOG, I Feel Totaly OUT of CONTROL,,While Driving in DENSE FOG !!! Drives my CRAZY !!! Just SAYIN….Anybody Else Feel The Same Way ??? ;-)

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          yup, even when you have headlights on you still can’t see cars coming at you until it’s to late. I’m very uneasy about it too

        2. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          Id take a snow storm any day, got into some Fog (DENSE) on the way home from work one night after working 2nd shift. Had to keep stoping find white lines in road and get centerd on road again and start over again. Was trying to follow reflectors on mail boxes to stay centerd on road but after 1/4 mile or so it had a tendacy to pull me off road again. At least with heavy snow i could always find tire tracks to follow.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I was wondering how you were doing

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Oh I’m going to the docter to get checked up, so I should be fine :)

        1. Brad says:

          You’re back so chances are you had a panic attack…nasty SOBs. Get checked out though because rapid breathing is a symptom of more dangerous conditions, too.

        2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Brad that was my 1st thought to with Nathan, I agree those panic attacks are SOB’s, rather mild or severe, they’re no fun it can make one feel sick.

        3. Jack says:

          Yup, I have had 3 Panic Attacks, in my Life, They act Similar to a Heart Attack.!!! Most Definatly Get checked OUT, by Your Physican Nathan .

        4. Brad says:

          It’s amazing how awful they feel, and the triggers can be random and not intuitive.

        5. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I find that panic attacks can be brought on more when under a lot of stress, and didn’t you just have or will be having exams this week? Just saying. Even when there is no stress they can be brought on but stress can play a role. Glad you are getting checked out.

  19. Slimjim says:

    Was just outside and the moon is shining through thin clouds and as several others noted its below freezing and there is some ice on the road. It’s 30 here.
    Slimjim

  20. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Near Breton and 52nd… 36* at 9:45 p.m.

    Steelie

  21. Brad says:

    A guy just wants to marvel at this incredible, amazing weather we’re having, and a few folks spoil his fun and respond with insulting comments. Bill, let’s join forces and clean up the attitudes on this blog!

    1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

      Wait a minute Brad are we talking about weather or climate, make up your mind please.

      I actually like all the weather talk on this blog not your agenda driven drivel.

      1. Brad says:

        See my original posts. None of them insulted a single person here, yet several folks replied with personal attacks. The topic of personal attacks comes up here often, and I am just reporting the facts.

        1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          Brad I will leave it at this, I believe that the fluctuations in climate are driven by the ocean cycles. The warming that we saw up until a few years ago was due to the PDO being in its warm phase. I am waiting patiently for the AMO to turn negative to drive NH temps down since the PDO cold phase has flattened temps.

        2. Brad says:

          The physics are incredibly complicated, I’ll hand you that.

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      I do dissagree with your view points, but try to steer clear of the insults. When this blog goes off topic it sometimes gets ugly. Keep it classy boys and girls. :)

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        That was for Brad.

        1. Brad says:

          I try not to go that route, either. I admit to stirring the pot a bit, but I learn a lot here, too, and I make sure to contribute to the blog and not just criticize Mr. Steffen.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      OK Brad…marvel:

      Another 114 people dead in India from the cold: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/more-than-100-dead-as-cold-snap-hits-india/story-fn3dxix6-1226547279652

      Record cold in Korea: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/01/03/67/0302000000AEN20130103005900315F.HTML

      Record cold in China: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/02/c_132076347.htm

      Ice roads open early in frigid Canada: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/cold-revs-up-highway-network-185134621.html

      2/3rds of U.S. has snow on the ground! http://iceagenow.info/2013/01/usa-current-snow-cover-10-years/ …the most in over a decade as we start the new year.

      Coldest in decades in Russia: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/12/28/2012122800375.html Over a hundred dead from extreme cold and 16 1/2 FEET of snow!

      UK – 2012 second coldest year since 1996: http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/uk-weather-2012cold-and-wet/

      Dozens dead from the cold in the Ukraine: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20809898

      Dozens dead from the cold in Poland: http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/dozens-die-in-poland-cold-snap-578660.html

      “The deep cold that took ahold this winter so far is unseasonably early…”
      (in Alaska): http://homertribune.com/2012/12/ice-breaker-opens-basin-for-troubled-barge/

      “Severe Cold” in Pakistan: http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/201194/

      “Historic” snowfall in Washington State: http://www.missionridge.com/news/item/historic-start-to-the-season.html

      “Harsh Winter” in Mongolia: http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/?p=2385

      2012 was the second coldest year since 1996 in the UK: http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/uk-weather-2012cold-and-wet/

      Unusually heavy snowfall in Turkey: http://www.turkeytribune.com/turkey-tribune/winter-in-turkey.html

      Record cold in Bermuda: http://bermudaweather.wordpress.com/2013/01/27/cold-snap-reaches-bermuda/

      Antarctic ice reaches areal extent RECORD: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/121013-antarctica-sea-ice-record-high-science-global-warming/

      1. Brad says:

        Right, we know unusual (in shape or in duration) jet streams can cause polar air to spill to lower latitudes, all consistent with potential effects of climate change. Show me the average temps (on the 1880ish-2012 scale) and the biological indicators- distribution and abundance of boreal and alpine taxa and vegetative structure in boreal and alpine habitats- and glacial activity (are we break-even? Losing ice?)- again, an average.

        1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          Brad what is your take on the rebound of temps since the LIA.

        2. bobcat says:

          Brad, you stated.. “I meant your papers, as you insinuated you know more about climate than the folks who actually study climate.” Please post a link to your own papers showing you study climate. Google doesn’t count.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Speaking of biology, here’s an interesting comment that was in the New York Times:

          Dave | February 26, 2011 at 11:37 am | Reply

          “I also have to agree with Jim West. My firm ‘belief’ in AGW had already been undermined by some extremely bad papers about mosquitoes, arthropod borne disease, and the effect a warmer Earth on wildlife (I am a biologist). But, I assumed these were just opportunists jumping on the gravy train and that the problem was with the journal review process, not AGW.

          But the Climategate emails made it all too clear that there was no science at all in ALL these famous papers in Nature and other ‘prestige’ journals. Rather, all the sound and fury appeared to be generated by an unscrupulous cabal eager for grant money, fame, and lots of CO2 generating trips to warm and pleasant spots where they could regurgitate their story to a corrupted press and conniving politicians.

          As far as I can tell now, many of the assumptions of AGW appear to be false, nothing that one reads on climate change from Nature to Drudge is reliable.”

          Ice has decreased in the Arctic in the past 20 years, but there is more ice now than on this date 6 years ago: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png Antarctic ice set a record extent this fall: http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/3620-antarctica-sea-ice-record-image.html

        4. Brad says:

          A quote? Seriously?

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Yes…quotations are fairly common in journalism.

  22. Zachary Lassiter says:

    Mesodiscussion in Northern IL for a severe weather potential…. CRAZY

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20130063/

    1. Cort S. says:

      Cool! Looks like at least a few of those thunderstorms should linger and spread across West Michigan in the wee hours of the morning. RAP model suggesting it’s possible. MUCAPEs will be about 100-500 J/kg, so instability will be sufficient for some thunder.

      A note on the Chicago radar… it appears to be miscalibrated right now. The horizontally oriented radar beam returns are coming back much too strong compared to the vertically oriented returns. ZDR values are way too high. Reflectivity values may be a touch too high, and that may also affect Level III products such as Probability of Hail. Surrounding radars do show pretty strong reflectivity values, though.

  23. INDY – you READY for the blizzzard wednesday??

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      For who, Northern WI, and MN .

  24. Randy M (Comstock Park) says:

    Home outdoor thermometer says 32 degrees- treated roads up here are fine, but parking lots have icy spots. Hazy-clear skies with a not-quite-full moon. I hope temps rise overnight so tomorrow’s surfaces aren’t slippery.

  25. Cort S. says:

    Hey, look at that! This is a better Low Level Jet tonight than what we’ve seen practically all last year! LONG LIVE 2013! (Click here for the RAP model’s depiction and forecast of the LLJ, which is overriding the warm front and touching off thunderstorms in Illinois as we speak. I’m sure someone in West Michigan will hear thunder tonight! If not, color me surprised!

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      Looks like some storms are headed this way from Chicago! http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=IL-rad-48

  26. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Sick of seeing global warming debates on here. If you don’t like Bill Steffen, please feel free to never come to this blog again.

  27. Jack says:

    WELL, Well, When it Gets Down 2 the Nitty Gritty, This What I BELIEVE !!!! CUE: I Believe sung by Wes King (HD) – YouTube

    ► 3:03► 3:03
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHo26oTwp6k
    GOD BLESS! BILL’s BLOG… ;-)

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      and it’s coming this way :) hope it stays severe all the way here

  28. Irish coffee says:

    “Global Warming” hype/attention(nearly all of it espousing NEGATIVE EFFECTS/, while completely ignoring any positives- which wouldn’t fit with political agenda of intellectually DIShonest misinformation ‘doom & gloom’ climate prophets/profit-eers)..will soon meet it’s demise in public discourse much as nuclear fall-out shelters in the 50′s….OVER-population threats pre-2000…Y2K hype/hysteria…depletion of all oil reserves..etc, have had their day/s in the sun, followed by gradual reduction of attention/interest due to ‘NEW & IMPROVED’ APACOLYPTIC disaster threats on the horizon….give it time, AL Gore et;al climate-gate prophets will get their last drop of milk from cash-cow and MOOOve on to next $$$$$ pimp-scheme.By 2025, people will LAUGH about how incessant climate-change talk was just a decade or 2 past!

  29. Irish coffee says:

    Of course by 2025, when all cars/vehicles have “Little Black Boxes” installed by big M.I.B to monitor/report ALL movement…& Bloomberg has succeeded in lowering soft-drink ban to ANY beverage OVER 8oz. in volume(outlawed at national level)….ammunition limits(10 bullets/week- sans skeet-shooters @ Camp David) w/ Feinstein-type firearm restrictions which EXEMPT elected officials(sorta like healthcare and other provisions that don’t apply to politicians/just citizens….computer chips implanted in all UNaborted babies @ birth to ensure no lost, abducted ,or MISSING persons<at least it will be marketed as such-w/ real intent purpose to trackmonitor ALL living human beings…..Chrtistians will still have some freedoms left- maybe not to provide Communion to minors,or only practice bigoted, discriminatory selective marriage of man + woman, or lead prayer in public/ +crosses/bibles banned in public school…not to mention WINTER BREAK shall NOT be referred to as CHRISTmas ever again!!! Still legal? certainly not choice in lightbulbs or SCHOOLS(via vouchers); yet new forms of marriage between multiple persons/agape love,all in the family,etc so as NOT to discriminate against ANYONE EVER! So as not to look at the future in purely negative terms,I do believe we will still retain the right/freedom to choose which side of the bed to sleep on(w/ only one camera in bedroom for government to make sure nothiong 'bad' happens to us in our sleep! …cheers

    1. Brad says:

      Alex Jones much, Irish? ;-)

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Nah, Brad…just using a little tongue-n-cheek satire for levity!! That said, POWER=CONTROL..Gov’t continues to gobble up more and more POWER a la PAC-MAN.Said power has, and will continue,to result in more and more restrictions on 1′st, 2nd,etc amendments and less freedoms…non-politically correct speech will become “HATE”-speech/dissent & will be frowned on and discoraged at best/banned at worst…privacy and private propery rights and freedoms are slowly/subtly being restricted as well…but no big deal, as most seem content to let gov’t takeover any/all forms of our lives– energy,health,schools,property,transportation,etc…fogettabout ‘We the PEOPLE’.. power to the Gov’t, for the gov’t, from the gov’t & by the gov’t!!;)

  30. GunLakeDeb says:

    Fog is not “burning off” here – visibility is about 20′ in places. Might have something to do with a bazillion-gallon ice cube down the street…LOL! Gun Lake is still frozen – although the ice looks VERY sickly. I doubt it will survive the winds forecasted for teh next 2 days :-(

  31. I email the NWS, What The Hell are they thinking, were under 200 feet here in Breckenridge, this is as bad of fog as we’ve had in years.

    What a bunch of morons….. sorry but it’s a hell of a lot more threat to peoples life then the pending flood watch….

  32. The NWS is just dead wrong on there thinking on this one.
    I asked them to make a few more calls to law inforcement up this way, I have to think it’s not much better in Isabella Co. either

  33. If the fog is lifting from south to north fine then drop counties as needed

  34. Ok, about 1:15 after the fog advisory the fog has rapidly lifted, but we should have not been dropped until that happened, you would say ok the tornado just cleared Grand Rapids so the tornado warning is now over for Kent county. I know a tornado isn’t the same as fog but I bet more people get hurt each year to low visibility than tornados, just as I’m writing this Isabella dispatch took a police report of a 2 car crash in which the one driver said I didn’t see him, no kidding…..

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