Flood Watch – Fog Advisory

January 28th, 2013 at 2:36 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  This is the HPC 5-day precipitation forecast (click to enlarge).  That’s a LOT of rain for W. Michigan and much of the eastern U.S., especially considering this is January (wish we could pull the area a little to the west to help the dry parts of W. OK up into S. Dakota).   The G.R. National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning.  Model data suggests 1 1/2″ to an isolated 2 1/2″ of rain will be possible thru Weds. PM.   The combination of the rain and melting snow could cause significant rises in area rivers.  There is also a fair amount of ice in the rivers and ice jams are a possibility.  There is also a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire area until 7 PM tomorrow (Tues.).     The European would take the G.R. temperature to 56 Tues. PM (I could see an isolated 60 degree reading S or SE of G.R.), with steadily falling temps. on Weds., a high of 21 on Thurs. and maybe 15 on Friday.  Temperatures in the snow on Sat. would be in the low 20s.   The GFS has a similar high of about 56 Tues. night, but down to 28 by Weds. evening and mid teens for Thurs. PM.  The NAM is 57 for Tues.  Friday we might get to +16 with mid 20s on Saturday.   Lake-Effect snow could be moderate to heavy in a few bands that develop from Weds. night to Thurs. night.   So after this wonderful weekend for winter sports…it gets to 55…the cold and snow come back and ski areas (with a little help from the snow guns) could very well be back to very good conditions for next weekend.   You gotta love Michigan weather!

Lots of REALLY warm air to our south.  Columbia, Missouri tied their warmest day ever in Jan. with a high of 77 on Monday.  Other daily records:  66 Quincy IL, 74 Kansas City MO and Wichita KS and 80 at Wichita Falls TX.

297 Responses to “Flood Watch – Fog Advisory”

  1. Jack says:

    First, Out of my Mind MONDAY MOANING ! ;-) . Ya, Gotta Love MICHIGAN !!!! ;-)

  2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Well, well just got a phone call from the boys school, SNOW DAY! 33F and raining up here

  3. Skot says:

    Coopersville schools closed and its 37 outside? Why not just a 2 hour delay???

    1. phlrnnr says:

      that’s what I thought. A 2 hour delay would have been more than sufficient.

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Wow, 327 school closings? Why?? It is raining out now!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Haha, Laura put a bus stop forecast on Twitter!

      1. Skot says:

        Go back to bed Nate.

  5. Yup (Grandville) says:

    While the main roads are in good shape due to salt, there are thousands of miles of secondary roads that are down right treacherous this morning. It will take more than a few hours for those roads to melt up. Schools and their bus drivers just don’t want to take the risk.

  6. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Should be a wild week. Nam keeps showing pretty good snow as the low goes over the east side of the state…yesterday’s gfs was showing that, but now has the low going over Milwaukee with little snow on the back side until the lake kicks in.

  7. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    3″ of snow here overnight and now freezing rain. A lot of the schools around me are closed.

    Channel 4 out of Detroit predicting 60 tomorrow!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      … and 19° for Friday. Should be an entertaining week!

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Looking forward to more record highs!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Yeah, 58° from 1914 is the record. Hopefully I can take down the Christmas lights =)

  8. INDY says:

    Northview Is Closed Going Back 2 bed …………INDYY…

  9. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    All schools in this area are closed.

  10. I don,t know why they closed all the schools. My wife said the roads are not bad.

  11. Mike (Wyoming) says:

    How does this weather system go as far as helping with the drought conditions in the US?

  12. Irish coffee says:

    Fwiw, dewpt in So Haven now up to 44!!(as of 8am)…GOODBYE SNOWPACK;(

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its a damp 34° here in Walker. After last nights snow/sleet/freezing rain and then rain. Well just as was the idea late last week and into the early weekend it looks like the temps will rise well into the 50′s (even though several blogers thought otherwise) and the snow on the ground will melt, there will be a good chance of low land flooding and maybe even some river flooding with ice jams. Then it looks to turn colder with some snow. I am not convinced as to how much it could be a lot or very little as in the past it has gone both ways.
    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      You better be right, I didn’t shovel =)

  14. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    BTW ground hogs day is Saturday so there is at most only 6 more weeks of winter LOL But some indications are for a chance of a early (warm) spring of course I will believe that when I see it. My gut feeling (not based on any long range information) is for a colder then average spring with more snow then the past several years but that is just a feeling as it could be said we are over due for a cold spring!
    SlimJim

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I agree with you Slim, I’ve had this feeling as well and Farmers Alacamc indicates cooler and wetter spring/summer all we can do is what we’ve been doing for the past year since this odd weather pattern has come on us is , “Wait and see”. I just hope and pray my husbands flight is on time and it is a safe uneventful flight. The next few days will drag yet go fast in some sense. So having this mixed bag of weather will keep my mind off time while I track with the best of them!

  15. DF (SE Mich) says:

    2″ of snow in just a few hours over here last night. Then it was covered with about 0.1″ of ice. Let the Michigan roller coaster weather begin, the way it is supposed to be. 60° Tuesday, only 18° high for Friday =)

  16. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Am I right in assuming January will wind up as another warmer than average month?

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Yes, by quite a bit. Bill mentioned yesterday in one of his blog posts that we were 2.5 degrees above normal for January. Add a temp. of around 45 today, mid 50′s tomorrow, and an early Wednesday AM reading at least in the 40′s, and we’ll probably end up closer to 3 degrees above normal for the month. That said, I think we’ll wind up near normal snowfall for the month in GR for January.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Okay, must have missed it. Thanks! That’s a warm month!

        20.8″ is the average snowfall for January for GR. Is the total snowfall even that high yet?!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          With the rain coming GR should be well above the average precipitation for the month even though it wasn’t snow. Good for the big lakes, hopefully.

        2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Except a lot of precip was lake effect.

          Moreover, ice cover is well below average for this time of year, so evaporation is draining the big lakes every day as well.

          What’s worse, there are a number of proposals on the table to further dredge since boats need a way into the ports. It’s a vicious cycle.

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          GR has only 1.7″ of precip in January so far, 1.07″ of that was definitely not lake effect. 2-3″ of additional rain in the next few days will be way over average precip for the month.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We are 1.7° above normal in Detroit through yesterday, and that will go up.

  17. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Here is the 12z nam. Unlike the gfs, it shows quite a bit of snow accompanying the cold front. Still not close enough to give gr much.

  18. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Here is the 12z nam. Unlike the gfs, it shows quite a bit of snow accompanying the cold front. Still not close enough to give gr much.
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

  19. INDY says:

    Good Morning! Funny how the storm is over now and the eastsiders are taking Bills blog over lololololololo WEST IS BEST!! INDYY….

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It is funny how we can get a word in after all the aliases sleep.

      1. Rumrunner says:

        Hahahahaha!

  20. INDY says:

    It’s great coming on here and reading everbodys fun and thoughts!! Togeather we are one!!! Bring on thunder storms tomorrow!!! INDYY..

  21. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Dense Fog advisory posted. Figured that one would happen. Although the fog isn’t too bad currently.

  22. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    Very thick fog here, cannot see the neighbor’s house across the street!

  23. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    Be careful Driving!!! BLOWING FOG!!! It’s looks like Blowing Snow going across the Feild behind my House!! Several Years ago it cause a HUGE Pileup on 96 just East of Lansing,Fatalities and many Injuries!!

  24. kevin. w says:

    I’m seeing a big warmup out in the west in about a week so I wonder if we get into a northwest flow with clipper storms. I see on the high res Euro that we could go back into a milder pacific flow in about ten days or so….So maybe winter is coming to an end early?????????????

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still have us pretty firmly in the likelihood of below average temperatures and above average precipitation (meaning all or mostly snow). A mild shift would allow us to tap into that warmth, but a further shift the other way could put us back in the core of the Arctic air. I think February and the first half of March will be much like we’ve seen the last few weeks, i.e. roller-coaster temps., plenty of rain and snow, and perhaps near-record highs and/or near-record low highs.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        I definitely think the arctic air is done after the mini blast we see after the warm up. Lots of 30′s, 40′s, and 50′s in February.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          I think the warm-up is done after the mini-blast we see before the cool down. Lots of 30s, some 40s and a few 50s in Feburary.

      2. Dan says:

        Please tell me this is not true. I’m not ready for Winter to be over after the end of this week! Winter, really, just got started.
        I am hopeful we can get a decent synoptic snow event or two before Winter is over. We are running out of time for this season.

  25. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Some items to watch for the next several days. The record high temp for GR on January 29 is 59° (may be hard to reach) If we could stay in the mid 50′s after midnight the record high on January 30 is only 52° On rain fall if the projected amount is reach we would set a new record rain fall amount the amounts are for Tuesday 1.03″ and for Wednesday a higher 1.39″ So we could be looking at both near record high temps and Precipitation at the same time.
    SlimJim

  26. INDY says:

    And floods……INDYY..

  27. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We are still “0 for X” on snowstorms this winter. Isn’t this like our 4th or 5th big rain event this winter? And also, it is looking like a WNW-W wind for the lake effect later this week. I could be getting hammered again!

  28. Cort S. says:

    Eye candy… Precipitable water normalized values will be 6 standard deviations above the climatological normal for this time of year.

    http://pic.twitter.com/w2WDOZnI

    Translation: A rare amount of moisture throughout the depth of the atmosphere with this system, as far as late January is concerned. Good news for us, this water will be coming from the Gulf, not Lake Michigan.

    1. Nathan says:

      So in other words, we could be getting plenty of rain Tuesday-Wednesday?

      1. Cort S. says:

        Absolutely, here is the HPC’s quantitative precipitation forecast:

        http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_wbg.gif

        GR could see as much as an inch and a half of rain (now through Weds 7 a.m.). A little less to the north, and a little more to the south.

  29. Nathan says:

    Dense fog advisory and flood watch are both in effect in January! Crazy weather

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Not really, we usually get a decent January thaw where these conditions persist.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        One January thaw happens most years, but two record-breaking thaws is pretty remarkable, indeed!

    2. Cort S. says:

      This sudden thaw and freeze should rank right up there with our memories of January 2005 and 2008. We don’t see such an extreme temperature swing every year, but it’s always a crazy time when we do.

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/plots/monthly/?site=KGRR&year=2005&month=1
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/plots/monthly/?site=KGRR&year=2008&month=1

      1. Cort S. says:

        And Dec 31 – Jan 1, 2010-11.

        Btw, here is the Day 2 moderate risk:
        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
        We have greater than a 10% chance of hearing thunder tomorrow.

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Nice, I love looking back at those.

  30. millekat says:

    When’s this rain supposed to start tomorrow?

    1. Cort S. says:

      We’ll see a wave of rain come through very late tonight into tomorrow morning. Then we’ll see our heaviest rain and possibly some thunder Tuesday evening.

      1. millekat says:

        Thanks Cort. And glad that you’ve resurfaced on the blog recently! I had wondered where you had been!

        1. Cort S. says:

          Thanks! Happy to help out.

      2. Cort S. says:

        And a chance of thunder during the overnight period tonight too. Here is the probability of thunder tonight:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/imgs/enh_0400.gif

        (Note: The thunderstorm probabilities take into account both the expected areal coverage and probability for thunder to occur. Therefore, a 40% probability means that given similar environmental conditions, thunder would be observed at any one location (in either a county or city) within the 40% thunder probability area four times out of ten, or 40% of the time.)

  31. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Ugh. Well perhaps we can get some synoptic snow on Wednesday that doesn’t compact quite as much an hour after falling. It would be our first 1″ or more of synoptic snow this year in the Muskegon area.

  32. Vincent(N.E.Kent Co) says:

    Down to 1 3/4 inches of snow on the ground. Just plowed the drive so it melts faster. If we have thunder on Tues,that will make 3 times this month. Temp is 39.2 here.

  33. Brad says:

    I called this warmup two weeks ago. Folks, let’s keep in mind in the new normal, snowpack in S Mich does not last, and 50s are routine during winter.

    1. Dan says:

      uh check your facts, Brad. You called the warm up and we received the Arctic outbreak last week. I’m not making this up. You even told Bill he had missed the forecast. Remember?
      There is no such thing as “new normal”

      1. Brad says:

        Dan, here’s my post from January 15. January 15 was a Tuesday; “by the beginning of the week after next” would be this week.

        Brad says:
        January 15, 2013 at 5:29 pm

        Hate to say it, folks, but it looks like we’ll see a strong push of warm air by the beginning of the week after next…50s and 60s. Can we hit 70 in Feb?

        1. Brad says:

          BTW, I rule ;-) .

        2. Brad says:

          Who said anything about snow?

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          You talked about snow pack – just pointing out that it’s still snowing.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          UPDATE – MARCH 3 – Brad – Not only did we not hit 70 in G.R. in February, we didn’t hit 60, we didn’t hit 50. In fact, we never got warmer than 45 in G.R. in February! That was only the 4th time in the last 20 years that we failed to get above 45 in February. The month brought 33″ of snow to G.R. and a record 53″ to Muskegon!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      UPDATE – MARCH 3 – to Brad – our snowpack has now lasted 32 consecutive days and 40 of the last 42 days. We’ll add most of this week to the number of days with a snow pack.

  34. SW Kent says:

    New normal?? You have no clue. This is NOT a new normal. We will have cold winters, mild winters, and snowy winters. There is not a new normal.

    1. chuckles says:

      You took the words right our of my mouth… We have a couple of years that are a little warmer than normal and people talk about a “new normal”. I remember not all that long ago we had a couple of summers that it barely hit 90 degrees 1-2 times the entire year. It is called an AVERAGE temperature for a reason.

      1. Dan says:

        Brad looks to interrupt. Just wait, his friends will come join him soon, you can count on it!

        1. Brad says:

          I’m here because I nailed this warmup (see above). Out of the ballpark. Snowpacks have no chance in this new winter normal!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The 2000s were the snowiest decade in G.R. history. Northern Hemisphere snowpack has been INCREASING: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201112-201202.gif

          We had 5″ of snow or more on the ground continuously from Jan. 8 to Feb. 7, 2009.

        3. Brad says:

          Right, I am talking about duration of snowpacks. It can snow a lot, melt, then snow again.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          UPDATE – MARCH 3 – We have now had a snow pack in G.R. (1″ or more of snow on the ground) for 32 days in a row, and 40 of the last 42 days. February brought +33″ of snow to G.R. and a record +53″ to Muskegon (+50″ to Holland). Muskegon is up to 93″ of snow for the winter!

    2. Brad says:

      Don’t get emotional, SW Kent.

      1. poad says:

        SW Kent is right again

  35. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Gotta love the sound of melting snow!! Almost amazing at how fast it is going away. Nice breeze out keeping the fog at bay. Where are all the nay-sayers now that said the warm up would never happen, and we were in for 6 straight weeks of non stop snow and cold? Or the endless posts of “The cold will hold”? Sorry, but the cold did not hold.

  36. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    Hey Bill… Today is the 150th anniversary of a snowball fight during the Civil War!! 9,000 participants until General James Longstreet called a halt to it.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I LOVE history. Here is another one that took place during the Civil War.

      http://www.weatherbook.com/Snowball.htm

    2. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      Oops… it’s tomorrow the 29th!!! Got a day ahead of myself!!!

  37. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    2 Questions 1) will we see any training with the storms/Rain TMW night and how much back edge snow are we expecting on WED

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Going with the theme around here….lots of rain and little synoptic snow.

  38. INDY says:

    *****SEVERE THUNDER STORMS ARE A COMING WITH A MAJOR FLOOD THEN BACK TO HEAVY SNOW ONLY IN WEST MICHIGAN*****….STILL GOT ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND!! STAY TUNED INDYY,,,,,,,,,

    1. Rumrunner says:

      Wait, what? Wrong is all you are. Wanna try again? You guessed cold and snow, now it will rain, flood, then snow, but only in west MI. So many ways for you to fail again at this game. LOL

      1. INDY says:

        Hows it feel to be the only one to read my post u ding dong! go chase cars!!!! INDYY….

  39. Red in Allegan Co. says:

    INDY I kinda hope your right…about the snow that is. Just came in from sledding with my dog (English Lab). We both fit perfectly in our plastic sled and the snow is just right. And the best part is, living on a hill in the country means I don’t have to travel to go sledding.

  40. Nathan says:

    Anyone catch the typo on TWC? Slikery roads instead of slippery :)

  41. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Cort, Bill, or whomever. If my memory serves me correctly during the Spotter training classes last year I thought they mentioned with all these fluctuations in temps cold, warm, cold, warm, that it could be a set up for a very active severe storm season for Spring/Summer?? Can’t remember why they said that is so but wondered what your thoughts were or if I heard or understood correctly, and do you foresee Mi being in a better “Ring Of Fire” position this year or is it basically again, “Luck of the draw” on where it places itself.

    1. Cort S. says:

      A wavy jet stream pattern like we have this week…
      http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
      …is perfect for big severe weather events in the mid-South and Dixie in the late winter and spring, and sometimes for us northerners. A jet pattern like this is associated with big temperature swings and strong low-pressure systems, especially when that wave marches from west to east across the country like it will do this week. Other times the jet stream may be more flat across the country, and there will be no big temperature swings or big low-pressure systems that form out of that pattern.

      These different wave patterns can come and go during a season, though certain patterns may be favored to happen more often in some years and not others. Lots of reasons why that is (El Niño or La Niña is just one of many reasons), and that’s the basis behind seasonal forecasting. Needless to say, it is very difficult to predict the favored jet stream pattern for an upcoming season, and scientists are only scratching the surface in understanding it, but we’re slowly getting better at it.

  42. Tyler says:

    Had about 5 inches of snow last night here in Escanaba in the U.P. I think were up to 28 inches on the season.

  43. arcturus says:

    Skilling is calling for record warmth in Chicago. No calls for the same here in Grand Rapids?

    1. Brad says:

      There seems to be a tendency to “hide the increase” in temperatures in the eight-day forecast. The blog remembers I predicted 50s and 60s for this timeframe two weeks ago, yet few took my warning seriously. It is almost impossible for snowpack to last in this new winter order.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Good call! Wood had 44 for Tuesday on their 25th forecast. Always cold bias!

        1. Brad says:

          It’s like they can’t believe how warm we are getting. The atmosphere is simply charged; juicy.

        2. Cort S. says:

          There’s a less cynical reason for this. Put yourself in the shoes of a forecaster. You see indications of a warm-up coming 5-8 days from now, but the magnitude of the event is naturally very uncertain. You bump up your temperature forecast a bit, knowing that you can always bump it up a little more each day IF your confidence in a big warm-up happening continues to increase. You’ll get hundreds of angry emails accusing you of HYPE!! if you predict 50-60 degree January temperatures but you end up having to tone it down later to 40-degree event, which is statistically a more likely scenario. But people are much more forgiving and able to adapt to changes in the forecast if you do it incrementally as your confidence in the forecast becomes more certain. If your temperature forecast for a certain day bounces drastically up and down over the course of a few days, people will write you off as an untrustworthy meteorologist.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      The record high for G.R. tomorrow is 59. Unless the temperature in Grand Rapids reaches 60 degrees, it will not be a new record high. The record high for 1/30 is 52, which is the lowest record high temperature for any day in January. It’s possible it could be 53 at 12:01 AM on Weds., but the temperature will be falling quickly as the cold front comes thru and the weather story for Weds. will be temperatures falling below freezing, roads icing up and the rain changing to snow. It’s not what the temperature will be when most people are asleep.

      January’s average temperature, including today, is 27.3 degrees – no where near a top 10 warmest January. NASA global IR satellite data shows the average global temperature for Jan. 1 – 27 has been colder than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png -0.242C as I write this.

    3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Lots more record highs to be broken in Michigan the next two days I do believe!

      1. Brad says:

        It’s getting ridiculous! It looks like we will have four 50+ days this January, something that has not happened since <2001, even in our warmed state. We're at +2.5F in Grand Rapids for the month, and that number will soar over the next couple days. This leads me to wonder if any of us will experience a year below the 1900-2012 average again in Michigan?

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          What is the 1900-2012 average? I think we will see a year of colder then average temp again heck it could come as soon as 2014 (even 2013 is still possible) while I do not think its the 112 year average here is the average (for the whole year) high and low temps for selected Michigan cities..

          http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Michigan/average-annual-temperatures.php

          SlimJim

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The first four days of January had highs of 53 to 56 in 1897!!! In 1932, we had 3 days in the 50s in January (max. 58) and a 48. In January, when advection is more important than radiation, you can get two hours of 50-degree temperatures and it counts as the max. for two days, despite that fact that the average temperature for the day may be much cooler than that. We could be 55 at 12:01 AM on Weds….but fall to 19 by 11:59 PM that evening. Even if we get two days in the mid to even upper 50s…it still won’t boost this month into a top-ten warmest January.

        3. Brad says:

          That’s something that always bothered me about daily “averages”- wish we had the “real” integrated average rather than the H+L/2 thingy.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s unfortunate that so many weather/climate-monitoring stations have either been moved around or been subject to urbanization and land use contamination. The official weather station for Grand Rapids has been downtown at the old Post Office, it’s been at the Veterans Home on Monroe NW, it’s been at the old airport near what is now Division and 44th St. and now at the Gerald Ford Airport. Just the move of weather stations from field, forest clearing and prairie to airports had a significant effect on the climate record. Note the effect of urbanization: http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/141_3.png (image is from a study of urbanization on climate/weather records from the State Climatologist of California.

    4. Brad says:

      Here’s a good blog on the “exceptional January warmth” and “near-record January moisture” we are experiencing this week:

      http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2337

      This on the tails of last year’s balmy winter, this March’s ridiculous, record-smashing heat wave, this summer’s heat and 100+ temperatures, this summer’s widespread, severe drought, and the second balmy winter in a row. Something’s amiss with atmospheric energy and the jet stream pattern…I bet I know the culprit ;-) .

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Detroit will have had 10 days of at least 45 degrees in Jan 2013. Very crazy is right.

        1. Brad says:

          That is downright absurd. While we have had some “chilly” winters over the past decade (though nothing remarkable), folks need to remember that weather patterns can quickly and dramatically change in response to various stimuli, hence our new order.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Including today, Detroit is only 2.1 degrees warmer than average for January…nowhere near a top ten warmest January.

    5. Cort S. says:

      Skilling also has the luxury of his air not having to overcome a snowpack and a cold Lake Michigan. We in Grand Rapids have underpredicted January warm-ups like this one before, but we have more ways that our forecast can go wrong compared to what Chicago has. Lower confidence forces us to be more conservative on the temperature forecast.

    1. Brad says:

      Holy freaking crap. Remember, my latest prediction is 70+ in February. The drought in the Midwest is going to expand and intensify. Prepare for the second Dust Bowl, folks. It ain’t gonna be pretty.

      1. Brad says:

        To put that in context, our highest February temperature since 2001 was 61F in 2009. We hit 69F in 1999 (2/11) and Battle Creek hit 72. We’re gonna do it. Big time. And I think 80s in March are inevitable.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Reminder: The drought is not caused by “global warming”:

          The Texas State Climatologist said this: “There is no evidence that climate change contributed to the lack of rainfall, because rainfall has risen over the past century in the state.”

        2. Brad says:

          LOL, you don’t find that reasoning specious?

        3. Brad says:

          Does the Texas state climatologist have a college degree? Sheesh. Although it’s no surprise- Texas does oppose critical thinking in schools: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/texas-gop-rejects-critical-thinking-skills-really/2012/07/08/gJQAHNpFXW_blog.html.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Absolutely not…there’s nothing misleading…it’s a simple fact from a scientist who knows a lot more about the subject than you do.

        5. Brad says:

          C’mon, Bill. Good thing you didn’t go into research if you can’t see that is a flawed statement.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s more on the Texas State Climatologist, Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Nielsen-Gammon

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Kevin, In both the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day if that pans out we could get a good bit of snow or ice even with above average temps.
      SlimJim

  44. Brad says:

    Remember when lightning was an unusual phenomenon in Michigan winters? I think we’ve had several days with lightning this “winter.”

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I seem to recall thunder happen in the winter for many years if one thing has been missing has been the times of thunders snow seen that many times when I lived in both Bay City and Alpena but have only seen a good thunder snow storm here once and that was in October of all things.
      SlimJim

  45. kevin. w says:

    The new euro is saying zonal and warmer and very warm in the southeastern states.

    1. Brad says:

      I’m reading Canadian locations may record all-time highs for February…in January.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Oh, and I heard somewhere that some locations in the U.S. may reach all-time record lows for February IN JANUARY!! Quick raise my taxes and give me carcinogen-filled light bulbs!!!!

        1. Brad says:

          Bill, this thread is about weather, not taxes. Or is it?

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          This thread is about the potential for local flooding and ponding of water Tuesday night into Weds.

        3. Brad says:

          And I replied to Kevin’s weather post about warm temperatures.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          You seemed confused…so I thought I’d be helpful and answer your question.

        5. Brad says:

          Why, thank you! ;-)

  46. INDY says:

    SUN IS OUT GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW STAY TUNED!!! INDYY..

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Sun is not out here but do see blue sky.
      SlimJim

  47. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Mmm, I seem to remember many posts from one of you that predicted this unseasonable warmth. I just can’t seem to remember whom that was. C’est la vie.

  48. kevin. w says:

    Lifted indexes are higher now for tomorrow than were forecasted for this morning so I think thunder bumpers are in store. Weather is sure crazy.

    1. Brad says:

      It says a lot when the blog fills with hopeful posts about what should be an average winter day (<32 with frequent snow). Now, we're talking thunderstorms and record heat (look at the Plains!) in January.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        And, once again, WORLDWIDE temps are BELOW NORMAL. Think our local weather may be influenced by all of the hot air coming from Kevin/Big Daddy/Joanne/arcturus/Brad/Travis (Oxford).

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Okay, Joe B

        2. arcturus says:

          How about some data instead of some unsubstantiated declarative? About a month ago I provided data showing that places as widespread as Berlin, Moscow, and Beijing had generally experienced above avg temps for a considerable period.

          Your turn …

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Not a lot of hot air in the Western U.S. this month! Look at this: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png The contiguous U.S. has been COLDER than average in January!

          Temperature departures from average this month: Grand Rapids +2.9 El Paso TX -2.1, Missoula MT -4.5, Laramie WY -4.1, Gunnison CO -7.3, Tucson AZ -2.7, Las Vegas NV -3.3, Sacramento CA -2.4, San Diego CA -1.2, San Francisco CA -1.8, Burns OR -10.7, Elko NV -13.0 (WOW!), Salt Lake City UT -11.3, Spokane WA -5.8, Boise ID -13.3 (WOW).

          Beijing is 1 degree colder than average for Jan. 1-28, 2013.

          “Snowpacalypse Russia!” http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/

          Berlin is 1.2 degrees colder than average for Jan. 1-28, 2013.

        4. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          It’s okay Michael, it’s obvious Brad is too stubborn or ignorant to understand that Michigan, and even the United States as a whole, is an extremely small fraction of the entire globe. Maybe he needs to be reminded that the world is not flat and that there’s no wall or cliff in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. We just happen to be in one of the warmest relative-to-average places in the world right now, but the globe as a whole is actually at or below normal. I’m sure when we had the coldest July EVER in July 2009, or back-to-back years of over 100 inches of snow (2nd and 3rd all-time) in 2008 and 2009, he was singing a different tune.

        5. Brad says:

          Colder than what average? Specify a period.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Records in G.R. go back to 1892. The four coldest Julys in G.R. are all recent: 2009, 1992, 1996 and 2000. Only two of the 12 warmest Julys in G.R. have occurred since 1955.

        7. Brad says:

          Because of corn, right? Or is it because we’re not warming? I’m confused.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          I know you’re confused. Hang in there…keep trying to learn. Even James Hansen is pulling back:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

        9. Brad says:

          No, I asked about the implication of your comment about cool Julys.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Transpiring corn has raised minimum temperatures during the growing season by raising dewpoints. It’s man-made climate change, but not warming from CO2. CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1

        11. Brad says:

          Atmospheric CO2 concentration is declining? Is that what you meant to post?

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          You appear to have a reading comprehension issue, Brad. Here’s what I said and what I meant:

          CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1

        13. Brad says:

          And that is irrelevant to the discussion, Bill!

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          The thread is about the threat of flooding and ponding of water Tuesday night into Wednesday. And, no – CO2 emissions declining is relevant.

        15. arcturus says:

          Above average temps all the way from Miami to Alaska, Houston to Greenland based on the map.

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          Colder than average temperatures from Acapulco to British Columbia, from Argentina to Venezuela and from Japan to Norway!!

    2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Sweet! I hope i reaches my area because I love a good big boom!! It was so nice to hear thunder last night even if I only heard it once or twice, made me crave for more.

      1. Jack says:

        Consider Yourself Blessed that ya Heard THUNDER, Last Nite. I didn’t Hear ANY, Saw the FLASH on 2 occasions ! I could go for HOUSE SHAKIN,Earth MOVIN, THUNDER BOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMER !!! !!!!! CUE : The Animals Boom Boom – YouTube

        ► 4:18► 4:18
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEESmHXUUjM
        ;-)

  49. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Bill – I thought you might find this interesting:

    Norway Data Shows Earth’s Global Warming Less Severe Than Feared

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-27/norway-data-shows-earth-s-global-warming-less-severe-than-feared.html

    Steelie

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Interesting article, Steelie – good find. Of course, it’s easier to “meeting targets for minimizing global warming may be more achievable than previously thought…” when global temperatures aren’t going up:

      The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…”. – James Hansen et al. (from Dr. Judith Curry’s blog)

      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

      1. Brad says:

        Profound…I can pick several segments of the 1880-Present temperature graph and claim temperatures are “leveling off” or even declining. But we see the long-term trend clearly. Most folks know global warming is not a linear process.

        http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Your graph stops at about 2004, so it’s almost 10 years old. It starts with a temperature of -0.3 degree from “average” and ends at +0.5 degree from average. Assuming you can believe this “adjusted” data…that’s a warm up of a whopping 0.8 degree over +100 years. Note the scale on the left has been adjusted to make the graph show a steep increase (to make it look scary). That’s well within the range of natural climate fluctuation, not even considering the warming from land use, urban heating and moving weather stations to airports in the early-mid 20th century.

      2. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        Indeed. In a report released last week, James Hansen (NOAA) and two colgues agreed that temps have been flat the last ten years or so.

        Steelie

        1. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          Oops… “collegue”.

          Steelie

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