Showers, Storms and Fog
January 29th, 2013 at 12:42 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
1:35 AM Lots of rain in the area – Already cooling off west of G.R. Grand Haven (beach) went down 5 degrees in 5 minutes. Light rain will continue into the morning. Small hail was reported in SE G.R. with the first t-shower that passed by around 5:15 PM Tues. Movement of the rain is SW to NE. Rainfall thru 11:45 PM: 2.73″ Norton Shores, 2.48″ Muskegon, 2.39″ Shelby, 2.10″ Grand Haven, 1.28″ Holland, 1.44″ Grand Rapids (WOOD-TV), 0.96″ Battle Creek, 0.90″ Oshtemo, 0.86″ Mt. Pleasant, 0.80″ Jackson, 0.76″ Benton Harbor, 0.72″ Kalamazoo, 0.59″ Lansing, 1.41″ Allendale (GVSU), 1.30″ Jenison, 1.38″ Hudsonville (Daybreak Church), 1.25″ Boatwerks on Lake Macatawa – Holland and 1.65″ on the beach at Grand Haven at BilMar’s. As of 7 AM: 1.22″ Sparta, 1.09″ Fremont, 1.02″ Caledonia, 1.00″ Rockford, 0.83″ East G.R. There’s still some very fog in places. Some temperatures early Tues. morning from Iowa into Illinois were 40 degrees warmer than average (and they’ll be 20 degrees colder than average Thurs. AM). The Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms comes up to the south edge of Lake Michigan (see thread below). There should be a significant outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes down south (we get more winter/early spring tornadoes in the south in years with a weak La Nina/and or cold PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation). There was a Severe T-Storm Warning for St. Joseph County Michigan early this AM for large hail! Hail nearly to 1″ in diameter and 1″ of rain in 25 minutes with some of these storms! See the other threads below for more on our current and long-range weather and check out these useful links: For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total precipitation for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.
I’ve noticed that the Chicago NEXRAD reflectivity is much more intense than the other local radars (Grand Rapids and South Bend). It has been that way for awhile now.
You’re right. They are experiencing miscalibration issues. It should hopefully be fixed soon. I think they are waiting parts to arrive.
Let’s Send Fixxxxer , There to FIX IT…
You tell em Cort…
It’s been raining so hard here where I’m at in Muskegon for several hours straight. The drive here was pretty scary as the fog was so dense I couldn’t see in front of me. The roof here at Branns in Muskegon is leaking and there is water all over the floor. I was soaked from head to toe just running out to my car. What fun!
Of course…the snow always disappears over us…but when it rains…it pours.
BWWAAAK! try to keep the rest of your feathers dry, Katie in Kentwood!
Raining pretty hard here now.
Thundering….
WORD 4 Today’s WEATHER.. SHSTFO.!!
Saw couple flashes nothing more. BORING!
Sorry…
Another FLASH for U…..WINGS WIN !!!!
If I recall correctly, last winter the longest consecutive stretch in which we had snow cover was 11 days. With the snow cover now gone once again, what’s the longest stretch of snow cover we’ve had so far this winter?
Could someone calculate how much snow this storm would have produced if it had been snow, not rain? My daughter asked and I k we I didn’t know, but this blog would! Thanks all!
2′
ALL THIS RAIN, Made Me Think of THIS… (roll Cameras) ::::::: BILL COSBY 1965 NOAH.mpg – YouTube
► 1:28► 1:28
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kK3QMiJ5NY
A CLASSIC…Enjoy (snicker,snicker)
(((Shaking Head))) This i have to say is the perfect picture of the GR BUBBLE, look at how big and round and clear it is all around the GR Dome.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GRR&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
WOW, THAT’S ….. http://www.celticsejuiceshop.com/images/watermelonbubbliciousejuice.jpg.
What can I say! I’m Bubblicious!! LOL!!
Yeah, Just that kinda Person and Personality U are !!! Got Your ” BUBBLY ” Hat on ?? Lol ..
New Mesodiscussion for Southern Lower MI…. possible extension of Tornado watch into our area….
http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20130085/
Had a transformer blow in front of my house this afternoon….. pulled out the generator. Ran some cords fired it up and all was good. Then the power clicked back on. DAMNIT!
WOW how about that for January 30th?
Doesn’t look too promising and looks to mainly stay south of the MI/IN border but the mention of it is still rare!
we gonna get hit with some snow 2moro or what???? what time will it change over? GONNA BE NASTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This would have been in impressive snow system
no kidding…how much snow would it have been? hoping for lots of snow and ice 2moro!!!!!!!!!
rory.. My calculations, came to 2 Feet of SNOW !!!! http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_yG2HbYQQYOw/TVFvwPxp_2I/AAAAAAAALnA/MdEKXgH3Bmg/s1600/%25210_2011_0208_PittsburgKS_TwoFeetOfSnow_TheMORNING-SUN.jpg
What an awesome looking cold front!
http://www.weather.gov/Radar
A new foot of snow? Oh yeah!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR
Sad part is ..It took what 24hrs., or so 2 lose it, and 120hrs. 2 get it BACK !! Pure Michigan !! Bring on The SNOW !!!!!
Seriously…I was thinking the same thing. We lost most of our dense 7 inch snowpack in SIX HOURS!!!
Matt, I lived in Michigan, my entire Life ! And theRoller Coaster Ride, Never Ceases 2 Amaze ME ..
I could see my grass when I left the house this morning….. now everything is gone
What your Grass , Is Gone ? Lol.
lol SOMEONE STOLE IT!!!
Anyone else think this week is deja vu of last week? Warm, rain, flash freeze, heavy lake effect snow. Looks like the same exact spots are going to get hit with lake effect again. I’m only 6.3″ away from 30″ for January.
http://grib2.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=00Z&STATIONID=IWX
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=00Z&STATIONID=IWX
OMG – I SOOOOOOOO hope those forecasts are right!!!! The one truly scary thing about this situation is lake ice: I have to assume most lakes look like Gun – the thin layer of ice that’s left is sickly-looking, crumbly and weak. If we get a big dump of snow – it insulates the ice so it doesn’t freeze well. But folks still see fluffy snow on the ice and head out – only to find that the ice doesn’t even give any warning before it dumps them in the water
down to 38 here! 45 to 38 in 2 hrs!
I am hoping our area can get in on some of the deformation zone that is currently out in WI and IA. That could give us a couple inches of REAL snow before the LES.
7 DAYS OF SNOW AND COLD STARTS THIS AFTERNOON!!!!!!BACK 2 WINTER…..INDYY…
Rainfall From MAC Stations (7:00am) Wednesday
Newaygo 2.50
Middleton 1.98
Breckenridge 1.73
Lansing 1.57
Brown City 1.41
Marlette 1.21
Jasper 1.16
Blissfield 0.80
St Thomas Ont 1.81
London Ont 1.39
Tupperville Ont 0.72
BILL NEEDS TO UPDATE HIS BLOG LK EFFECTT SNOW WATCH IS COMING!! INDYY,,
6-12 INCHES OF SNOW COMING WITH WIND STAY TUNED….INDYY..
WHere lk shore or inland? Oh please let the heavy stuff hold off until after tomorrow night after 4pm PLLLEAASEEE I have a very, very special delivery coming home tomorrow
<3
We’re just supposed to have steady accumulations – which means the plows on the roads and at our airport can handle it. It might be a slower drive than normal – but I don’t think Mother Nature will stop any flights? I’ll keep your Special Delivery in my prayers for an on-time arrival!
So, when do the watches fire up for the LES?
Starting tonight Thursday and Friday….INDYY..
Swatzzee by Friday u will have over 12 inches of snow on the ground !! Going to be a west wind all day tomorrow, Friday Inland will be getting it!!! INDYY..
000
FXUS63 KGRR 301155
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS…
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY RESULTING IN RAIN
GRADUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM…(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
NUMEROUS SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND DEALING WITH
HYDROLOGICAL/FLOODING ISSUES (PLEASE REFERENCE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
FOR THOSE DETAILS).
KGRR RADAR/SFC OBS INDICATE RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AREA AROUND LDM AND
PENTWATER FIRST AS NNW FLOW CAA STRENGTHENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM.
LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST P-TYPE UP AROUND LDM WILL
ALREADY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY AROUND 12Z. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN DEFORMATION
ZONE DYNAMICS IN THAT AREA.
PCPN TYPE WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE KGRR
AREA TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND IN OUR SE FCST AREA TOWARD LAN AND JXN
BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR NW FCST
AREA THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT WNW FLOW LES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO
AROUND -18 C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE MOST PROLIFIC WNW FLOW LES SHOULD
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS OF -19 TO -21
C… DEEP MOISTURE… GOOD UPSTREAM RH AND INSTABILITY ALL IN PLACE.
DGZ DEPTH IS FAVORABLE AS ARE OMEGAS… PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN OMEGAS ON THE ORDER OF 15 MICROBARS/SEC ARE NOTED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE DGZ NEAR LAKE MI. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY.
OUR FAVORED WNW FLOW SNOW BELT REGIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT LIKELY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. WE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
Fox weather says heavy lk efectt snow on Thursday and Friday for Grand Rapids ……Fox don’t ever say that!!!!! INDYY..
Remember they just tell it how it is not to scare you! LOL!!! Well I will be happy for our boys if there is a snow day on Friday, more so for my husband so he can actually sleep in without hearing us up and about Friday morning. The vice principle has been hinting for a snow day again this week.
What school is that? Somewhere in Belmont?
Yes, ChandlerWoods on Post/Jupider Rd just at the 131 N ramp.
WINTER is coming back! I heard, lake effect snows through the weekend and then, a possible synoptic event for us on Monday! BRING ON WINTER!! Question is does it stay here into early February or do we warm up again?
February will be below normal with lots of snow winter is running late this year!!!! INDYY..
It was 53 degrees on my way to work this morning. Felt like April!
Looks like NWS is standing by their 64 degrees yesterday at both Jackson and Pontiac:
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130130/METRO/301300358/1409/metro/Warm-up-then-back-winter
Lansing and Holland broke record highs yesterday. Detroit broke their record high this morning.
Pontiac supposedly hit 68° last night at 10pm, that didn’t happen…
I was cool to hit the max at 4-5am across the area.
Official records in Detroit NWS area:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
0816 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES…
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES WAS SET AT DETROIT THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 53 SET IN 1969.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 58 DEGREES WAS SET AT FLINT MI THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 51 SET IN 1988.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAGINAW MI THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 50 SET IN 1988.
And so did Grand rapids 54* at midnight was a recored high for today!! INDYY..
I keep hearing that it is possible to get 5-10Inches of snow through Friday. But i also heard that most of it will be lake effect, does anyone think much of this will make it to Ionia area or will it stop around the lake shore like usual?
this is what the NWS thinks
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=92187&source=0
SlimJim
thats only through Thursday evening!!!
I think you have a better shot of getting snow with this event than last week. There will be times this week where the winds will be more westerly.
Thanks, really hoping i will be able to get the snowmoblie out. If we get more than 4inches you guys know what i will be doing
Jeff where do you work in Portland? I work at the hardware store.
Reading today’s GR NWS discussion almost sounds like a post one would read from the Indy and or Rocky persona’s on this blog But as always time will tell.
I have now lost 3° in the last 45 minutest here its now 39°
SlimJim
lolololo theee mancave is ready!! INDYY…
and so is my generator if need be, I’m PROUD of myself! I’m getting to be quite the handywoman
You go girl! Come hook up mine now please
With a west wind the next 2 days Ionia will be getting snow Jeff get ready!! INDYY,,,
Thanks Im really excited to be able to get the snowmobiles out!!! For the first time.
The deformation band is looking pretty good for some of us to get possibly a couple inches of snow before the LES. Let’s see if it can hold together.
This sounds very promising! This is even after the snow today through Friday. They were talking about the clipper missing us to the north but it’s trending farther south.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND THAT TURNS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MORE WESTERLY. THE MOISTURE STAYS DEEP
ENOUGH AND 850 MB TEMPS COLD ENOUGH THAT A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND LAKE
EFFECT EVENT IS LIKELY. THAT IS FOLLOWED SUNDAY BY A DIGGING JET ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX THAT BRINGS A DECENT SOUTHWEST
WIND LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH IS FOLLOWED BY MORE
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SUNDAY. THEN THERE IS THE MONDAY
SYSTEM…IF THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH WE COULD HAVE
ANOTHER SNOW EVENT MONDAY.
I’m seeing a lot of graphics from different models pretty much hinting at at least a 6-10 inch event all the way down here towards the IN state line. But of course, the NWS in northern IN downplays it as usual, & refuses to even put out an advisory, much less a watch or warning for here. Go figure.
Man, that’s one big, powerful winter storm. There are Winter Storm Warnings up all the way from Missouri to the UP.
Too bad it misses us again, and we’re left with only lake effect.
this weather is ridiculous. either stay cold or warm up and stay that way.
These big up and downs usually happen in early spring, not the end of January.
And it looks to continue as CPC and others showing another warm up on the horizon for next week.
Cort had a good post a couple days ago with examples of similar January swings in years past. I wish I could remember where the post was in the more than 1000 comments in the last few days =)
Yes, LAKE EFFECT! Batten down the hatches, this could get interesting! Temperature has been dropping since this am! We are now down to 42 degrees!
If the wind picks up and the freeze happens, can you imagine the Lake Effect dumping?!! Woo Hoo, WINTER IS BACK!!!
The 12z GFS shows a couple clippers coming through before the warm up next week.
ohhh yeaaa WEST MICHIGAN is under thee gun bang heavy lk efectt snow coming with west winds Schools will be shut down in Grand rapids ….Stay tuned…INDYY..