Lake-Effect Snow WARNING!

January 31st, 2013 at 4:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  7:10 PM – One snow band sits right along I-96 now from Muskegon to Detroit.  Roads are snow-covered and very slippery at times.  Major accident on I-94 near Mattawan.  Multiple semis involved, road closed.  3″ of new snow at the G.R. airport, nearly 6″ at Paw Paw and Schoolcraft.  17″ of new snow at Marquette, +7″ at Traverse City.   Models give us snow more on than off thru Friday with periods of snow continuing through Tues. of next week.  Latest European keeps us below freezing until at least Weds. and possibly beyond that. There’s a Lake-Effect Snow Warning for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties and a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory for Mason, Lake, Oceana, Muskegon, Newaygo, Kent, Barry, Berrien and Cass Counties.  This is going to be a long-duration event with not only significant snow, but also drifting and some blowing snow.  We’ll also have cold temperatures (in the teens much of the time), strong winds (15-25 mph steady, with gusts to 35 mph, esp. at Lake Michigan) and low wind chills near zero.  For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total precipitation for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.

The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.39″ precipitation and at a conservative 20-1 water to snow ratio, that would be 8″ by early next week.  For W. Allegan Co. it has 0.72″ precipitation which would be nearly 15″.  The NAM caribou has even more snow…thru Sunday AM it’s up to 13.3″ for Grand Rapids and up to 20″ in Allegan Co.   The GFS Caribou has 6″ for G. R. by Sunday AM and 11″ for Muskegon with over a foot in Allegan Co.  BTW, the totals for G.R. are at the airport – there would be more snow than that in western and especially southwestern Kent Co.  This is a long duration snow period and even light snow is going to add up.  The GFS doesn’t take us past 30 until the middle of next week.  We have the lake-effect thru Friday, then a couple of clipper systems.   Also, whoever gets a foot of snow will see at least 2 foot drifts.  I did see a couple of G.R./Kent Co. plows out this morning and the streets I drove home on had all be salted.  Keep up with 24-hour news 8 – we’re in for some significant winter weather thru early next week.

217 Responses to “Lake-Effect Snow WARNING!”

  1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Prolly 5… maybe approaching 6 inches in southern Berrien so far, with a Lake snow warning now in effect…… all I can say is that if it weren’t for Lake Michigan, we’d all probably have maybe 1 inch or so of snow for the entire season so far. Even some of the latest model runs take the next clipper system well south of here over the weekend…… though it appears that we definitely get some more lake effect out of it though….. Definitely I do see many areas across west/southwest Michigan getting 1-2 feet of lake effect snow over the next several days. It’s just too bad we can barely even squeeze out an inch or 2 of synoptic snow anymore….. bottom line………….. if not for the “big blue water”…. we’d all be screwed beyond words right now in terms of snow.

  2. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I do miss West Michigan sometimes, here is what happens when driving and snow mix over here:
    http://www.freep.com/article/20130131/NEWS01/130131036/4-dead-horrific-multi-vehicle-crash-75-Detroit

  3. SE GR says:

    Back to whiteout status. Though it seems to be lightening up slightly.

  4. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Doing nothing up here if it’s this way at the airprot in another hour or so I’ll be happy.

    1. Jack says:

      Drive Safely, On your way to and fro, Thee Airport ! Glad to hear your Husbands Plane made it on time to DET. Also looks like a Snow Day, for your Boys on Friday ,! Prayers and Thoughts your Way ! And and as always, God Bless You and Keep you, and may his Glorious Face Shine Upon You and Give you HIS PEACE…. Amen !!! :-)

    2. Tom in Alger Heights says:

      Swatz…Our office is located just north of the 44th St & Broadmoor intersection (Allied Van Lines). The Beltline south of 28th St is snow covered. We had some LE banding for about a half hour. Be careful on the roads.

      1. Tom in Alger Heights says:

        Wave as you go by.

  5. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    very heavy snow here… about 100′ visibility. Roads are horrid

  6. Cort S. says:

    Boy that’s a hefty band of snow in southern Allegan county:
    http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=GRR-N0Q-1-24

    1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

      Been that way all day with few let ups. Guess I’m in the ZONE this time.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I guess I know where to trailer the snowmobile to! Maybe we’ll catch a band when the winds shift?

  7. Michele L says:

    Indy~big snow in Kentwood…what is it doing on the roof of Taco Boy? I have talked to Uncle Sparks three times today, he is getting crazy! Look out later Bloggies!!! Miss ya Indy, we need a family get together soon!!! :)

  8. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Just measured 4 inches of snow here in Kentwood, and its still coming down hard :) I have some snow drifts outside my apartment door..

  9. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    We have been lucky so far here in Hastings. I am sure we will get the snow later on. I bet the truck stops on I-94 and I-196 along the lake shore are busy serving hot coffee with the drivers getting off the bad roads. Looks like a heavy band of snow is moving ln. THINK SPRING

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      While I understand you get sick of dealing with bad drivers and slick roads…. I’ve only been on my snowmobile twice :-( I need a little more of a “Snow Fix” than that ;-) SO many trails, so little time……

      1. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

        Happy trails to you. I really do like winter, but I like summer better. I do alot of camping in the Yankee Springs/Gun Lake during the summer. Have fun on your “snowmachine” and becareful.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          This whole area is a treasure, isn’t it?!

          I drive the sled like the little ol’ lady that I am :-)

  10. Brian says:

    It’s coming down hard in Kentwood. Big flakes. Some people in our office were asked to leave since so many live out in Jenison and Greenville. Be safe all!

  11. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Still have grass showing here. The aviation update mentioned the winds will go more NW tonight, shifting the lake effect a bit closer to the lake, then a let up after day break tomorrow before the next wave comes through later tomorrow.

  12. Nathan says:

    With the wind shift, will GR (I’m on south side) still get heavy snow?

  13. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

    Barley even snowing here the past hour. Still not much snow on the ground, i hope we get more before the wind goes NW and we lose all hope of more snow.

  14. Snowing hard here in Jenison. Just snowblowed my drive 5 to 6 inches of snow.

    1. Where in Jenison are you located?

  15. Made it home – M89 between Allegan and Otsego is almost 0 visibility in places – 50 yards at best – no slide offs (yet) – we have 5 inches of snow here at 21 degrees.

  16. This LE is starting to slow down. I thought they said it was to pick up.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Discussion at 2pm:

      .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
      ISSUED AT 202 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

      THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND AMOUNTS.

      NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS ZONE ISSUANCE.

      ONE WAVE PASSED THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING ENHANCING
      THE SNOW. THE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ROUGHLY 1 INCH AROUND
      LANSING 6 INCHES FOR PARTS OF KALAMAZOO AS OF 8 THIS MORNING.
      SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE SNOW AT THIS TIME AS WE ARE BETWEEN
      WAVES. HOWEVER THE NEXT WAVE UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN ARRIVES AFTER
      22Z. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND THE
      LIFT STRONGER FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. AS A RESULT TONIGHT WE WILL
      LIKELY SEE MORE SNOW THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING. ALSO…MIXING
      HEIGHTS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE. THIS
      WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS…LIKELY OVER 25 KNOTS IN COMBINATION
      WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. I 94 WESTBOUND IS CURRENTLY SHUT DOWN NOW
      IN VAN BUREN CO DUE TO AN ACCIDENT. ALREADY TODAY MULTIPLE HIGHWAY
      CLOSURES DUE TO THE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE
      LOCALIZED INTENSE SNOWBANDS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES
      GOING.

      IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH LESS SNOW FRIDAY AND HEADLINES
      MAY VERY WELL BE CANCELLED EARLY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE MOISTURE
      DEPTH AND LIFT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER THE DGZ WILL BE
      MOIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS…TYPICALLY A GOOD SETUP FOR
      GRAND RAPIDS 12Z TO 18Z. ROUGHLY 260 FLOW DURING THIS TIME.

      THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES SAT AM. SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE
      MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES UP OVER 700 MB. NOT MUCH OMEGA SEEN.
      HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT CLOSELY.

    2. Irish coffee says:

      New WAVE of energy incoming this eve…intensities will increase GREATLY after 6pm & crank on w/nw winds 10pm- 4 am looks interesting so. Allegan/western Kazoo cty/most of Van Buren…perhaps 6-12″ in SPOTS 6pm-6am

    3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      The LES is slowing down? I’ve been getting 1″ per hour snowfall rates the past few hours, and it’s still coming down like crazy.

  17. mr. negative says:

    It’s snowing in Michigan in January! The Earth is doomed…headlines at 6

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks , mr. Negative.. I was in Need of a Good LAUGH !!!!! Rofl… You are POSITIVE in my Book !!!! LOLOLOLLO. ;-)

  18. Red in Allegan Co. says:

    I’ve been getting a good, persistent dose of snow for the past 2 hours or so. And it is pretty much horizontal out here in the open country between Martin and Allegan. It’s definitely drifting and I’m guess there will be many school closing in Allegan Co. tomorrow morn.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Yup, I received 2″ in 2 hours here, and still coming down at a good clip. 4-5″ on the ground right now.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I agree about school closings – even though we haven’t really had that much snow STICK – it IS keeping the roads nicely glazed.

  19. Jeff (Portland) says:

    2″ inches down here and suns out at the moment. But when it snows, it comes down hard !

  20. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Been in a snow drought in northern Kalamazoo County most of the afternoon. Heavy snow bands in Portage and north of us but nothing really going on here. :(

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Your time will come this evening.

  21. Wolverdog says:

    Blizz…?

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Don’t say it!

  22. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Nothing here in Ceresco for the past 2 hours. 1.3″ officially.

  23. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We left for Leader’s Marin on M-43 in Kzoo to get snowmobile oil at 1:45, and the snow just started picking up. We just got home and we received 2″ of new snow in those 2 hours. It wasn’t even snowing from Plainwell and south. Saw 2 cars in the ditch between Martin and Plainwell. Here are some pictures of the snow, and car in the ditch. These pics are about 5-7 miles apart, and look at the difference in the snow!

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151405713056418&set=a.10150097766036418.306861.641556417&type=1&theater&notif_t=photo_comment

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151405887621418&set=a.49746716417.82763.641556417&type=1&theater

  24. Nathan says:

    Heaviest snow I have seen in almost 2 years!

  25. Jack says:

    On and Off, Heavy to Moderate and Light Snow Showers Here ( N.E. G.R. ) , It’s Beatiful and oh Sooo WHITE !!!! This old Song came 2 Mind as I gaze out My Back Door. Enjoy and God Bless !!! CUE: Whiter than snow – YouTube

    ► 2:45► 2:45
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh8d15JmLCQ
    :-)

  26. arcturus says:

    My guess is water temps on Lake MI are above average (there’s that description again!) which creates greater delta’s for lake effect.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Water Temps: 33 Michigan City IN, 35 Chicago Shore, 37 Harrison Crib (3 miles out into the lake east of Chicago). There is ice in Green Bay now and at the northern end of the lake. Coastwatch has mid-lake temperatures in the upper 30s. Maybe a couple-three degrees warmer than average mid-lake (maybe), but near average along most coast areas and in the northern part of the lake.

  27. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    We are TOGETHER AGAIN ONE BIG HAPPY FAMILY!! Flights were all right on time but boys driving to/from the airport in some spots was challenging. Hoping for a snow day tomorrow, I get this feeling there will be just little comments from the school, plus evening events there already cancelled so most likely, in a way I’ll be surprised if there is, however up here, not a flake falling over my house, drive 1mile down almost white out.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yay!!!! Ignore my other post asking if you “had your man in your possession” – clearly you do and I’m so happy for your family!!

  28. SANDY (HUDSONVILLE) says:

    SNOWING VERY HARD HERE IN HUDSONVILLE. VERY WINDY & BLOWING SNOW. WHITEOUTS.

  29. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Snowing heavily in the Norton Shores/Spring Lake areas for the past hour and a half. We seem to do better with NW winds than W winds. Even though people say West winds are good for this area, I have yet to see many good events. It often seems the wind is too strong and pushes the bands over us.

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      yep you are correct Matt, while others are buried in snow I just drove into Spring lake to check how much snow and except for the occasional drift and the East side of buildings I didnt see all that much, im sure they got 2-3″ but yea blows around and piles up only in certain areas. (not as much “on the average” as we have in Nunica. I have about 3″ at my house in my drive (which tends to be sheltered and piles up fairly good)

      Alot of the lots (I only view lots cause thats where I plow…lol) had maybe 1″ on 90% and some drifts (in small areas) up to 3-4″

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        So you’ve noticed west winds aren’t very good for this area? When you say “buried in snow” are you referring to today or in many other events too?

        By the way, just dumping snow now. The winds are a bit more northerly now, I think.

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          Yea anytime they say 20mph or more west winds, it usually means those from Nunica (or say about 144th ave) to the east get more snow than they get in town spring lake.

          Been plowing the same accounts for 13 years now and yea MOST times its the same with a very strong West wind.

          Yea I was referring to those that have already gotten 6+ inches today.

          At any rate I have enough to plow tonight so I am happy, its light and very easy to push (not much wear and tear on the truck) Should be a quick easy night! (well quick being 6-7hrs)

          Seems NW and FOR SURE sw flow are best for our area. (which I read something about a SW flow Sat night)

  30. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Wow, white out conditions right now!

    1. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

      Same here!! Lovin it!

      1. Todd In Nunica says:

        Im loving this radar as it really color codes the intensity nice. I have a hard time seeing the way the NWS site radar color codes the bands. Plus I love being able to go back so far in time!

        http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

        1. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

          I just found that today too. I like it alot

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Hey Nick and Todd! It is nice having some local guys to talk to about the weather. Todd, you will definitely have some snow to plow.

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          yea! sure is. Im just relaxing right now, but will be heading out around 10pm to start my night shift! I DO love the light fluffy snow! Gonna be COLD shoveling walks tonight!

        2. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

          Sure is! Fun to see the differences in the snow bands that set up so close to each other too!

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Seriously Todd, if you want somebody to help you shovel walks, I am your man! I love shoveling, especially at night when it is quiet.

          Stay safe.

  31. Deb(Wyoming) says:

    hows the weather going towards holland?

  32. Tyler says:

    6 inches was the official storm total for Escanaba.

  33. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    Must be with all the LE SNOW is the reason WHY Gas Prices Have SOARED!!!! Fron $3.37 just over a week ago to $3.75 !!!! GOUGERS !!!!!!

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