Tornadoes – 2 fatalities – 32 injured – UPDATED
January 31st, 2013 at 2:45 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Adairsville tornado has been classified a “high-end” EF3 with winds of 160 mph! This was a very significant severe weather outbreak for January. Over the past 2 days we had 23 tornadoes (preliminary number – which will probably be reduced as they determine if there were multiple reports of the same tornado), 664 reports of wind damage and 12 reports of large (1″ or greater in diameter) hail. The worst tornado was the one in Adairsville, Georgia (one fatality there and 14 injures) where they had cars flipped and building damage. Video of Adairsville tornado here. Damage pictures here. There was a rare moderate risk from the Storm Prediction Center – you don’t see that too often in January! The Slight Risk Area for Tuesday covered 11 states. Here’s a link to current watches and storm reports.
ALSO: Grand Rapids is +4.1 deg. above average thru Wednesday. Snowfall for G.R. thru Weds.: 0.9″ Sunday, 12.2″ for Jan., 19.7″ for the season. Muskegon: 0.2″ Sunday, 27.8″ for Jan., 36″ for the season. Lansing: 0.8″ Sunday, 5.1″ for Jan., 9.6″ for the season.
The back and forth Michigan weather is back.
The 12z has backed off on the snow….only gives about 2-3″ through 120 hrs.
Thunder Storm chase with snow on the ground don’t buy into it!!THE COLD WILL HOLD!! INDYY…..
I sure hope your right Indy, I do not wana see it go already.
Perfect winter! Doesn’t start till late January, lasts a week, then melts quickly away with temps in the 50′s and rain!!
… and then repeat?
It’s not perfect for people who earn a living because of the snow. It’s kind of like when we don’t get rain and it’s extremely hot and sunny and crops fail, it’s a double-edged sword.
Before this arctic spell hit, I called for a warmup early next week. I said 50s/60s. It looks like 60s was a stretch but, for the most part, “that’s a bingo!” Bill, you should hire me to run the blog when you retire!
Yeah, for ONE day…what would you forecast after that? More 50s when the temps in fact crash into the 20s the next day? You would never forecast a cold snap. So in my opinion you are a big FAIL!!
I never specified a duration. It wasn’t hard- we rarely stay cold in this new normal!
Brad, you’re a dumbass.
Bill, please remove this insult from the forum. Let’s raise the level of discussion here, folks.
Eh, no sense of humor?
Shut up, dumbass. Wait, did I type that out loud? Uh, sorry, sorta…
Toot toot (the sound of your own horn for at least the tenth time). Sorry son, no one is impressed.
Pick yourself up off that sticky floor at Rick’s and get to work, buddy.
Big warm up to melt the snow, cool down back to 20′s for highs for a few days, and then sort of a muddle through bouncing around between the averages (low to mid 30′s) as we get more into February.
Looking at the average temps, we are already starting the march back up to spring.
Last February was very warm with only one day in the 20′s the entire month. I’m envisioning we are closer to average for Feb 2013.
Febuary could be below average temp wise, but as always time will tell.
SlimJim
CPC has us below average temps for the next 8-14 days. My guess is we do get warmer on Tuesday but, 50? I’m not so sure about that. Only, because of the most recent air mass has been COLD and there is some some snow pack in this area.
Those factors may not have that much of an impact as it would if it were earlier in the season. I’m guessing that we will top out around 45 or 46 on Tuesday, before we cool back down. Then, it looks like a couple other Arctic Air outbreaks and more snow. How long the does the colder air hang around after the warm up Tuesday?
You have to admit that this Arctic air has held on for a bit!!
It’s easy to underestimate the power of warm-air advection. I remember January 2005, we had a healthy snowpack and temperatures in the morning started out at the freezing mark, then over the course of the day, we warmed up into the mid 50s, which set or tied a record for that day. It was such a spectacle… You could see wisps of fog dancing over the snowpack in the breeze, then around noon time, the atmosphere saturated into a pea-soup fog. Then the fog dissipated as the temperatures warmed up further. By late evening, an approaching cold front triggered a line of thundershowers. There was even a severe thunderstorm warning issued for Newaygo county. Temperatures the next day crashed into the 20s.
Similar story in January 2008. I was in Mount Pleasant for that one. There was even a rotating supercell that produced an EF3 tornado in Illinois/Wisconsin, and it held together across the lake and moved over Muskegon and Mount Pleasant, triggering tornado warnings. I personally picked up nickel-size hail. Lightning struck a substation and CMU was without power for 20 hours, which cancelled the second day of the semester.
Is a similar warming event going to happen next week? Maybe… and that would be crazy if it did. Let’s find out!
Jan 2005: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/plots/monthly/?site=KGRR&year=2005&month=1
Jan 2008: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/plots/monthly/?site=KGRR&year=2008&month=1
We left for Memphis on the morning of January 10’2005 and it was in the low 70′s during the time we were down there. There was snow on the ground here and all the way down to mid Indiana where we got into some fog. On the way back there was a tornado in West Tennessee and a lot of flooding along the Ohio river. It was cold but dry when we got back to Michigan.
SlimJim
Oh yeah, I almost forgot. We have some more snow in the forecast for late tonight and into tomorrow. This will add to the snow pack and it is a synoptic event! More areas will get in on this!
Yeah, hopefully we can get some good synoptic snowfall with some sleet on top (I don’t say freezing rain, because it’s scary) to make it harder for the snow to melt. Sleet takes much longer to melt!
Again the COLD WILL HOLD don’t buy 50′s Tuesday more artic air will be rolling in Monday… STAY TUNED …INDYY…
I agree we may not even make 40 degrees yet alone 50 degrees with thunder? Bring on the COLD and SNOW. Get ready for a lot of SNOWSTORMS over the next 6 weeks!!!!
Going sledding!
For most the snow will be all gone and it will be back to brown grass and parking lot snow piles after Tuesday. While it may or may not hit 50 on Tuesday it will make the mid to upper 40′s easy and with a lot of rain good by snow for the most part (until more falls)
SlimJim
With yesterdays snow fall GR is now up to 9″ for January and all the way up to 16.5″ for the season. So all in all we are still looking at a sub 50″ snow fall season. Unless of course we get a lot of snow the next two months. But none the less we should end the season well below the 30 year average.
SlimJim
too early to call that
Depends on WHERE you are in GR obviously.
Its a far cry from the successive years of 100 inches of snow! What was that about 3 years ago? Those are the kind of Winters that I like!
Yeah becuase snow is sooo exciting.
How exciting?
Looks like Muskegon to the north could expect a nice 4-7 inch snowfall. I for one am excited for this!
Bring it!
Forget the rain. Keep the COLD and SNOW coming! The NWS is on board as they have GR for for 2-4 inches on Friday and SNOW for Sunday night and then a very brief warm up and then back to the COLD and SNOWY PATTERN! Get ready for 6 straight weeks of COLD and SNOW! ROCK N ROLL baby!! We have some lost ground to make up and we are well on our way!!!
Go back to pinerest. Too darn cold out.
Good i hope it warms up and melts this stuff. Ill take a tstorm any day. I will say after looking this morning wyoming doesnt have more than 5″. The city is doing a horrid job cleaning the roads.
Yep I just went outside and with my high tech measuring device I have a average of 4″ (took 4 measurements) and as the airport recorded 6.7″ falling in the last 4 days with settlement that sounds just about right.
SlimJim
Fixxxer,
The city of Wyoming does a better job than most in terms of “cleaning” the roads. I can always tell when I cross the line into another city. Must be you don’t get out much.
Do you complain that the city of Wyoming plows your sidewalk too?
Just complains.
There will be zero snow on the ground come Wednesday of next week……just some snow piles.
Rocky, I wish you were correct, but you are wrong.
Early next week will a tough few days for snow lovers.
Agreed.
You were right, theres been nothing on the ground for a solid 24 hours, SW Kent was right on.
It yet another cold night out now down to 15° here and cloudy
SlimJim
Maybe the clouds will keep us a little warmer tonight. Had a problem starting a vehicle this morning.
Id take 30′s over this.
Not sure 2 warm days can melt all the snow I have in my yard! We will be making the whole family of snowmen come mon/tues THATS for sure!….lol
As long as the rain isn’t to heavy we should be able to keep some.
Also I have more snow on the ground now then anytime last year.
We had snow last year but it melted within a week.
Yeah, and it is not looking like heavy rain either…
Ice storm worries?
That is exactly what I was wondering…
For everyone here, we must face the facts! Snow melts Monday/Tuesday (Especially in areas with little snow or south of 1-94)… But the snow and cold will come right back into the forecast next Wednesday!!
You should say it “may” come back.
I love snowstorms; due to murphy’s law we will get hit hard wednesday. I am heading south on vacation.
I take what may come rather I like it or not I have no control over it, sure it can be disappointing or exciting, all I know over the last 2yrs especially in the summer I’ve wasted so much needed sleeping tracking storms that never happened, looked promising then poof! So, I’m not buying all this 6 days out, but whatever happens, happens come what may.
2 years? More like 3.
I 1st wrote 3yrs but wasn’t sure but yeah 3yrs since 2009
Snow just a few hours away now! Its still Winter, YES! Enjoy the new snow tomorrow!
Rock ON!
I know fixxxer cannot wait for the snow. He also said that he cannot wait for snow and cold to return after the warm up, next week! Right, fixxxer?
Yeah thats what i said.
Forget the rain next week. You have got to love the 6-14 day CPC outlook! Below average temperatures and above average precipitation. You know what that means – a lot of COLD and SNOW is on the way and that will be on top of the 4 inches that we get tomorrow and another 2-4 inches Sunday night! I love it and ROCK n ROLL never dies!! The more COLD and SNOW the better!! Bring it on baby!!!!!
right on rocky! finally someone that agrees with me! rock on winter !
For those of you that think we will be getting a lot of rain and all the snow will be melted away. Mark it down – it is not going to happen!!!
Yeah becuase anybody listens to you.
You forgot your meds again? Mark it down fixxxer we will be having a brief rain shower and then so much COLD and SNOW that you will be crying till mid MARCH!!!!!!!!!
I’ll bet you lunch Rocky…
Consider the bet booked!!!
I want in too. This was a great week that did a lot of good, but is unlikely to hold. Next week we return to the the new norm, oscillations between average and warm.
6-10 day outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
8-14 day outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
February outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Not a chance – we will have a brief warm up and then right back to a long stretch of below normal temps with a ton of SNOW! Get used to it!!
ROCK ON Bill!
The warm air and rain will definitely rid all of the snow next week except for the piles around Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Lansing etc…
Local guidance is giving me 1 to 2.5″… Lots of dry air out there and models have done a poor job compensating for the dry mid/lower levels so far this year.
I think it’s safe to say Battle Creek, Lansing, and Jackson will end up with just under an inch out of this.
Hoping for another warm march.
Warm March. Yeah that was great when all the orchards got hosed.
Well since you lile to believe “long ranges” the cpc says march-august will be well above average temp wise.
get your golf clubs…i mean wii controller ready.
Yes, I will gladly take 6 straight weeks of COLD and SNOW and then transition back to golf about mid to late March!
How many posters does it take to say “all the snow will melt”?
Seriously, nobody knows. I know some will melt and I don’t look forward to it…enough with the whole “rubbing snow lovers’ faces in it” already.
It is kind of like “HA HA HA…. The thunderstorm got ruined by the lake. Oh, and next week it is going to be cold , SO NO THUNDERSTORMS”……………………….
Yes the warm weather freaks get very bitter when we get our COLD and SNOW and then they try and take out their frustrations on us!!!! Get used to it people it is winter and we will be seeing COLD and SNOW for about 6 straight weeks Enjoy it!!!
What’s the RDB saying for tomorrow?
Now there is true winter lover’s question. I love it! The RDB shows a solid 3.5 inches for GR and upwards of 5 inches for Muskegon and the lake shore to the North!! Bring it on – more COLD and SNOW is on the way!!!
Something like this is My QUESS , aye ROCKY…. Cue: Amboy Dukes, The Journey to the Center of the Mind – YouTube
► 3:31► 3:31
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN2VNFpiGWo
JEM MODEL Stiiiiiiiiillllllllll on Target 2/4/13….BLIZZARDDDDDDDC !!!!
ROCK ON Jack!!
Hey Folks, It is MICHIGAN, Don’t like thee Weather, Wait a Hr. Or 2……… It’ll CHANGE !!!!! GO- BLUE…B.Ball.!!!!!!
My question is, with cooler weather and if we can hang on to the cooler weather does that mean that we will have a better severe weather season this year? If so what is everyones thoughts about the severe weather season this year? More active or not
The cooler weather means nothing in terms of the storms this spring. Just going based on our past here. We are cooler this winter but as far as snow id say this year isnt much different, yet anyways.
Excited for the snow as well as school 2mmrw
Gov Snyder is coming to my school and speaking! Hope the snow doesn’t cause him to not come!
Bring on the COLD and SNOW. As for Gov Snyder I was taught that if you do not have anything nice to say don’t say anything at all. Silence is then golden!
“People may not agree about why climate change is happening, but it is certainly affecting Michigan. Historically low – maybe all-time low – water levels in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, last year’s drought and limited winter ice cover, and overall changing weather patterns across the country have stressed our lakes and groundwater. Water is in demand by farmers for irrigation use, and by Michigan residents and businesses who want clean, safe water, 100 percent of the time. Climate change will make Michigan’s water resources all the more valuable – and we need to be ready.” Governor Rick Snyder, December 4
I saw a bit on TWC this morning with Cantore in Switzerland talking to a “supposed” climate expert who said, “by 2022 there will be no more summer ice left”. Please. Didn’t Al Gore make some ridiculous prediction like that not to long ago. When asked about the polar bears adapting he had no real answer.
Climate change has always happened! I know this is hard for your climate profiteers to believe, but we actually had hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods and even heat waves long before people drove SUVs.
Once again…
CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UQHj8_JyGSo
Global temperatures have leveled off:
The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
Global snow cover has been increasing: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-namgnld/201201.gif
Antarctic icecap reaches greatest extent ever in satellite era last September and still way above average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Death toll from cold in Russia up to 207, with 4,500 treated for cold injuries: http://newsticker.sueddeutsche.de/list/id/1409339
But, hey! Let’s spend billions of dollars to try and make it colder…makes perfect sense!!! Now, give me that carcinogen-filled light bulb.
As to Lake Michigan/Huron – it’s not global warming that’s caused the lake level to go down. Lake Superior is at the same level as last year: http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/pressure-mounts-to-restore-great-lakes-water-levels-f76ug5a-170854881.html
Well…that settles it. Guess I’ll go burn a tire for warmth now…and later.
Kidding!
It’s too bad the Weather Channel has bought into the Al Gore mantra. He turned out to be such a stand up guy, especially when he sold his crappy cable channel to Al-Jazeera.
Interesting comment, Brian, considering that arctic ice fell to another record low, the second since Gore made that prediction. So far, he’s right.
And, Bill, I wouldn’t exactly call Rick Snyder a climate profiteer. LOL He’s about as conservative as anyone can get, and even he’s acknowledging climate change and its effects. How far to the right do you have to be for science to be considered liberal? Does that make logic liberal too?
Snyder’s like you…not very up to speed on climate issues. Does anyone seriously think that “by 2022 there will be no more summer ice left”. LOL!!
Check the ice in Antarctica: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png Antarctic ice set a record for greatest areal extent EVER in September. There is more ice there now in the middle of summer than in some winters! And the icecap there has been growing for over 25 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png !!!
As to the Arctic icecap: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png There’s more ice there now than there was on this date 6 years ago.
Here’s what you need to know:
CO2 emissions are falling in the U.S.: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1
Global temperatures have been flat for the past decade:
The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” James Hansen et al.
LOL Holy smokes. You’re a funny old man. Up to speed on climate issues? And then you say does anyone seriously THINK… So that’s really the problem. Up to speed is a visceral thing with you and has nothing to do with actual data. BILL: Stick your hand out the window gang and tell me if the climate’s changing. Have a look at this picture of snow and tell me if the climate’s changing. Ignore those scientists with all that irrefutable data because they’re all getting paid by someone. Ignore those governments and those churches and those farmers, because I have a buddy that has a blog who says the data’s all wrong. It’s actually not warmer, kids! Please believe me! LOL
The Antarctic has gained sea ice BECAUSE of climate change. That’s already been explained to you by the experts. It’s still losing land ice. The arctic lost more ice last year then ever recorded. Overall, the NSIDC tells us ice volume is down 60%+. Hey everyone, the emperor isn’t wearing any cloths! Keep on denying, Bro. At least we got one good week of winter here in West Michigan. Anybody get their sled out? Time to put it back in the garage!
So, if the Antarctic gains ice..it’s global warming…if it loses ice, it’s global warming. The vast majority of Antarctica never gets above freezing in the summer! Sorry, bigD – no one’s going to buy into that nonsense. Read my last comment…CO2 emissions down…even the most rabid climate extremist, James Hansen, admitting that global temperatures have stopped warming. Strong to severe tornado count is down in the last 30 years. We have now had the longest period of time EVER without a Category 3 or above hurricane hitting the U.S. and overall tropical cyclone energy is a historic low. The Texas State Climatologist says the drought is NOT related to any “climate change” because rainfall has actually increased in the last 75 years in Texas. You’re politically-driven attempt to use climate to confiscate more money from the lower and middle class and to force them to buy carcinogen-filled light bulbs to “save the planet” is globaloney!
I think you’re finally getting it! If it loses land ice, it’s warming. If it gains sea ice, it’s global warming. Not too complicated. Has to do with a variety of effects that range from increased humidity to a stronger Antarctic Polar Vortex. Sea ice adds very little volume relative to perennial land ice. Yes, I believe your loyal righty followers will continue to doubt it’s warming while the poles melt and hurricanes race up the east coast into regions rarely touched by these types of storms, while record droughts ravish the southwest, while our great lakes evaporate away, while the north pole falls to increasing record lows, while we experience the hottest seasons of all time, while winters seemingly pass us by, while averages climb and continents like Australia are forced to invent new colors for their weather maps! LOL You’re ridiculous.
Here’s a link that might help. It’s kind of a beginners guide to climate change. Hope it helps.
http://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/understanding-climate-change-global-warming
NWS is issuing WWA for Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Lake, and Mason counties right now for 4-6″ tomorrow. Update was about 15 minutes ago.
For all You Outdoor Winter LOVERS…This Weekend WILL BE GRRRRRrreat, 4 U 2….. SPIN: Kick Out The Jams – MC5 – YouTube
► 3:14► 3:14
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwFeN0Zl1bQ
ENJOY…..MICHIGAN…..woooo..Hoooooooo.
I saw the MC5 live a couple of times. They could play, but man they were a wild bunch. I believe there’s only one or two members left; the rest have passed away.
Two of them died of heart attacks in their mid 40s – another died of liver failure. You have a short shelf-life when you live like that.
The only good thing about retirement is I can look out the window and say yup it’s cold and snowing and find a good book. I feel for the folks who have to drive in this mess.
That is the only thing good about retirement? I’m sure you have others…
Blessings towards you, the relaxation time, as well as leisurely time that you have.
Moderate risk tomorrow for down south!
http://stormchasermovies.com/moderate-risk-of-severe-weather-for-jan-29th/
No severe storms for us…..no global warming going on and no 4-6 inches of snow tomorrow as a poster noted for north of grand rapids…..hard to get 4-6 inches of snow at 50 degrees. But then, most posters practice voodoo meteorology….(a dart board).
how bad is the storms going to be in Grand rapids MI for severe weather