Winter Storm Watch
February 6th, 2013 at 2:21 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The GRR National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Muskegon, Montcalm and Gratiot counties from 6 AM tomorrow (Thu.) to 6 PM tomorrow for (drum roll) 6-12″ of new snow! The overnight European model is still the most BULLISH on a snowstorm…giving Grand Rapids a whopping 0.92″ of precipitation. It looks like all snow and that would be at least 10 inches of snowfall. Here’s the totals off the (NAM and GFS) Caribou models: Grand Rapids (4.8″, 3.0″), Lansing (4.6″, 3.7″), Muskegon (7.8″, 11.4″), Kalamazoo (2.7″, 3.7″), Jackson (1.3″, 3.5″), Pontiac (3.3″, 4.3″), Big Rapids (7.8″, 11.1″), Snow Desert (aka Mt. Pleasant) (6.3″, 8.8″), Cadillac (10.7″, 6.8″), Ludington (8.4″, 12.5″), The NAM caribou gives Holland 5″ and S. Haven 3.6″. The GFS plot gives G.R. 0.42″ precipitation, which would be a solid 5″, maybe 6″. The GFS also gives us 0.38″ of rain from late Sunday into Sunday night and takes the G. R. temperature only into the upper 30s to near 40. The European is the same…upper 30s to near 40 Sunday night and we stay below freezing all day on Tuesday. Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.
Season Snowfall as of midnight: G.R. 35.7″, Muskegon 53.6″, Kalamazoo 36.2″ (WMU), Lansing 13.9″.
Yes the 12z GFS is cold, cold, cold after mid next week. Who knows though, both Joe B and the GFS showing it may mean it will be opposite now.
Haha. So true.
No, the fact that the EURO is showing it is interesting so I’d chop up a few extra logs for the fireplace.
haha He sure hasn’t been right about anything this winter!
The coldest I see from the models is a -5 degree temperature departure from average when average at that time is close to 35 degrees. So we may get one or two days in the upper 20′s. Real cold
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif
That is from yesterday.
18z isn’t out for today yet. This is 12z 240 hours out though, much colder than a 5° departure…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Not saying it will happen, since it has been jinxed, but maybe.
Doubt it. GFS had GR at 50 for Monday yesterday.
Yeah, now only to 39°… back and forth.
It won’t make 50 – never thought it would.
It’s about time we had a big snowstorm around here. COME TO PAPA! I need to get some new footage for Charlesimages-Stormedia!!
You go Chuck!
BWWWAAAK! NASA approved glowing thermal beak warmer at the ready!
KWC you quack me up!
The CPC wild guess forecast is picking up on cold in the long range. This might be the final jinx…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
So now you like the CPC again?
For the past week, it’s been showing nothing but above average temps for the next week ahead.
Time marches forward, and so does their forecast window. So, they suggest it’ll get warm (based on outlooks several days ago) before cooling down again (based on today’s outlook).
Why didn’t you post it? I am no fan of the lame probability map made to look like temperature.
No way…ALL the models are showing warm…too bad ALL the snow will melt in ALL the rain…. “end sarcasm”
NCEP SREF total snowfall plume. Quite a spread.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GRR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap
Looks like 4 to 8 inches is most likely for GRR.
3-hourly snowfall rates:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=3hrly-SNO&SID=GRR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap
If you focus on the thick, navy blue line (that is the mean of all the ensembles), it is suggesting that the heaviest snowfall rates tomorrow will be between 18Z (1 pm) and 06Z (1 am), peaking around 00Z (7 pm).
Whoa, Cort! What is that? I’m fascinated, but I have no idea how to read that thing.
HERE IT COMES !!!!!ARE U READY????? INDYY…..
WOW Winter Storm WARNING for Kent County until 12pm 2/8/2013
Going to the grocery store now my friend stock up, lock up and ready to roll.
Fun stuff!! A real snow storm!! Imagine that!!!
LOL, you sound just like Indy…
So ready!!! Ionia County now in a Winter Storm Warning!!!!!
+1
WINTER STORM WARNING!!!!! Sounds like this may be it folks !!!!!
18Z NAM looks to have the heaviest precip right over GR and just north.
Sounds like my bubble will be bursted and I’m in the sweet spot.
Not looking forward to the drive home from work tomorrow.
NWS zone only has a minor 2-4″ for Van Buren….yet just a SLIGHT shift south by 20-25 mi. over next couple of model runs and could be looking @ 6″ + …wait and see i guess……;(..not too excited down here….YET!
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENT!!!!!! AHHH!!!!!!!
Right there with ya Nathan !!!
I think this is our 1st WARNING of the entire season. Am I correct on this?
You’ve had Lake Effect Snow Warnings which are pretty much the same criteria.
But lake effect snow is a lot dryer snow and easier to shovel/plow and drive in. Also we still have a good six inches of snow on the ground ect. But it still has to play out before we get too excited one item that will be missing is wind so no blowing and drifting.
All in all not a bad day here today sun is out and the temps are in the 30′s with the sun there is a good bit of melting on the dive way and road and the snow is melting off the roof,
SlimJim
The Lake Shore has but not Kent County
Hey, Swat- Zoo!!!!!! JEM MODEL…SPOT ON !!!!!! Thank-You………..
. ENJOY !!!!!!! 
Great call Jack!!
CUE to you Jack….http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12VUjgYMm1U
Thank- You Sherry and Swat-zoo !! Swat zee thanks for the CUE!! And Yes ! This OLD Dude was DANCING ALONG , as My Wife laughed Her Butt of, at ME….. LOLLOL…..STAY CUED! JEM THEME CUE! cCueing Soon !!