Winter Storm Watch

February 6th, 2013 at 2:21 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

The GRR National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Muskegon, Montcalm and Gratiot counties from 6 AM tomorrow (Thu.) to 6 PM tomorrow for (drum roll) 6-12″ of new snow!  The overnight European model is still the most BULLISH on a snowstorm…giving Grand Rapids a whopping 0.92″ of precipitation.  It looks like all snow and that would be at least 10 inches of snowfall.   Here’s the totals off the (NAM and GFS) Caribou models:  Grand Rapids (4.8″, 3.0″), Lansing (4.6″, 3.7″), Muskegon (7.8″, 11.4″), Kalamazoo (2.7″, 3.7″), Jackson (1.3″, 3.5″), Pontiac (3.3″, 4.3″), Big Rapids (7.8″, 11.1″), Snow Desert (aka Mt. Pleasant) (6.3″, 8.8″), Cadillac (10.7″, 6.8″), Ludington (8.4″, 12.5″), The NAM caribou gives Holland 5″ and S. Haven 3.6″.  The GFS plot gives G.R. 0.42″ precipitation, which would be a solid 5″, maybe 6″.   The GFS also gives us 0.38″ of rain from late Sunday into Sunday night and takes the G. R. temperature only into the upper 30s to near 40.  The European is the same…upper 30s to near 40 Sunday night and we stay below freezing all day on Tuesday.  Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.

Season Snowfall as of midnight:  G.R. 35.7″, Muskegon 53.6″, Kalamazoo 36.2″ (WMU), Lansing 13.9″.

143 Responses to “Winter Storm Watch”

  1. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Yes the 12z GFS is cold, cold, cold after mid next week. Who knows though, both Joe B and the GFS showing it may mean it will be opposite now.

    1. Nic says:

      Haha. So true.

    2. No, the fact that the EURO is showing it is interesting so I’d chop up a few extra logs for the fireplace.

    3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      haha He sure hasn’t been right about anything this winter!

      The coldest I see from the models is a -5 degree temperature departure from average when average at that time is close to 35 degrees. So we may get one or two days in the upper 20′s. Real cold ;)

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        That is from yesterday.

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        18z isn’t out for today yet. This is 12z 240 hours out though, much colder than a 5° departure…
        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

        Not saying it will happen, since it has been jinxed, but maybe.

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Doubt it. GFS had GR at 50 for Monday yesterday.

        2. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Yeah, now only to 39°… back and forth.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          It won’t make 50 – never thought it would.

  2. It’s about time we had a big snowstorm around here. COME TO PAPA! I need to get some new footage for Charlesimages-Stormedia!!

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      You go Chuck!

  3. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWWAAAK! NASA approved glowing thermal beak warmer at the ready!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      KWC you quack me up!

  4. DF (SE Mich) says:

    The CPC wild guess forecast is picking up on cold in the long range. This might be the final jinx…
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      So now you like the CPC again? ;) For the past week, it’s been showing nothing but above average temps for the next week ahead.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Time marches forward, and so does their forecast window. So, they suggest it’ll get warm (based on outlooks several days ago) before cooling down again (based on today’s outlook).

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Why didn’t you post it? I am no fan of the lame probability map made to look like temperature.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      No way…ALL the models are showing warm…too bad ALL the snow will melt in ALL the rain…. “end sarcasm”

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Looks like 4 to 8 inches is most likely for GRR.

    2. Cort S. says:

      3-hourly snowfall rates:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=3hrly-SNO&SID=GRR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

      If you focus on the thick, navy blue line (that is the mean of all the ensembles), it is suggesting that the heaviest snowfall rates tomorrow will be between 18Z (1 pm) and 06Z (1 am), peaking around 00Z (7 pm).

    3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Whoa, Cort! What is that? I’m fascinated, but I have no idea how to read that thing.

  5. INDY says:

    HERE IT COMES !!!!!ARE U READY????? INDYY…..

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      WOW Winter Storm WARNING for Kent County until 12pm 2/8/2013

    2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Going to the grocery store now my friend stock up, lock up and ready to roll.

      1. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

        Fun stuff!! A real snow storm!! Imagine that!!!

      2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        LOL, you sound just like Indy… ;)

  6. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

    So ready!!! Ionia County now in a Winter Storm Warning!!!!!

    1. Jeff (Portland) says:

      +1

  7. Jeff (Portland) says:

    WINTER STORM WARNING!!!!! Sounds like this may be it folks !!!!!

  8. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z NAM looks to have the heaviest precip right over GR and just north.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Sounds like my bubble will be bursted and I’m in the sweet spot.

  9. KF (SE of Lowell) says:

    Not looking forward to the drive home from work tomorrow.

  10. Irish coffee says:

    NWS zone only has a minor 2-4″ for Van Buren….yet just a SLIGHT shift south by 20-25 mi. over next couple of model runs and could be looking @ 6″ + …wait and see i guess……;(..not too excited down here….YET!

  11. Nathan says:

    WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENT!!!!!! AHHH!!!!!!!

    1. Jeff (Portland) says:

      Right there with ya Nathan !!!

  12. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I think this is our 1st WARNING of the entire season. Am I correct on this?

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      You’ve had Lake Effect Snow Warnings which are pretty much the same criteria.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        But lake effect snow is a lot dryer snow and easier to shovel/plow and drive in. Also we still have a good six inches of snow on the ground ect. But it still has to play out before we get too excited one item that will be missing is wind so no blowing and drifting.
        All in all not a bad day here today sun is out and the temps are in the 30′s with the sun there is a good bit of melting on the dive way and road and the snow is melting off the roof,
        SlimJim

      2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        The Lake Shore has but not Kent County

    2. Jack says:

      Hey, Swat- Zoo!!!!!! JEM MODEL…SPOT ON !!!!!! Thank-You……….. ;-) . ENJOY !!!!!!! :-)

      1. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

        Great call Jack!!

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          CUE to you Jack….http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12VUjgYMm1U

        2. Jack says:

          Thank- You Sherry and Swat-zoo !! Swat zee thanks for the CUE!! And Yes ! This OLD Dude was DANCING ALONG , as My Wife laughed Her Butt of, at ME….. LOLLOL…..STAY CUED! JEM THEME CUE! cCueing Soon !!

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