Lake-Effect Snow Watch

February 14th, 2013 at 12:53 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  The GRR NWS has issued a Lake-Effect Snow Watch for the lakeshore counties (inc. Mason County) plus Cass Co. and La Porte and St. Joseph Co. Indiana from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.  There could also be significant snow in W. Kalamazoo and W. St. Joseph (MI) Counties.   Most of the snow will come Friday night through Saturday afternoon.  A total of 4-8″ of snow is expected.   Not everyone in those counties will see +4″ of snow.  Remember, watches, warnings and advisories are issued by county, so if a part of the county is expected to get significant snow, the entire county comes under the advisory or warning.  The most significant band of snow will most likely come onshore in SW Ottawa or W. Allegan Co.  The heaviest snow may be in W. Allegan down into Berrien Co.   We’re also tracking storm for next Monday night/Tuesday that could give us rain and then accumulating snow and a potential significant storm system for Friday the 22nd, which would affect the entire area with heavy snow and some healthy wind.

95 Responses to “Lake-Effect Snow Watch”

  1. fixxxer says:

    is this ever going to end billy?

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Last I checked, it is still winter. If this was April, I would understand

      1. fixxxer says:

        i suspect in april it won’t be much different this year.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      ha meteorological winter ends in 14 days, fix

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Would you like some cheese with that whine?

      1. Matt in New Era says:

        lol!!!!!!!!!

    4. mr. negative says:

      Mid June…

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    So is everyone giving up on the Mon/Tues storm already then? The NWS has kept saying an active snowy week for all of Lower Michigan, but now it looks like maybe 8 more days of waiting?

    I suppose I can wait if it turns out to be BIG! That would be a good winter send-off before the spring weather arrives.

    On the temperature front, I see Detroit is now only 1 degree below average for the month of February and may be back to average after today’s warmth. I guess that snow pack has kept temps a little cooler for GR.

    1. INDY says:

      Only u Travis we still have snow on the ground our winter is going good yours?? Wait till next week West Michigan gets more snow!! Just what all u snow haters want and so late what spring hahahha love it!!! STAY TUNED INDYY……

      1. Allendale says:

        Yea, INDY still has at least 3 feet of snow on the ground…lol

        1. gvsualumni says:

          You forgot blizzard conditions!!!!!

        2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          I still have a snow pile of around 3 feet at the end of my driveway. Other then that it looks to be around 2 to 3 inches in most of the yard.
          SlimJim

        3. Rumrunner says:

          HAHAHHA thats awesome.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I am not giving up. We are on the warm side and it seems to be weakening, but there is still time darn it =)
      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Okay, good! ha

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    37° here with some light rain. And of course the snow is melting,while for the most part the ground is still covered in GR there is bare ground showing up here and there and on the side of the overpasses in the city, sort of a sign of things to come. As for he lake effect this weekend I do not expect much here in GR and for the potential storm late next week??? That one will have to wait until we get closer to the event as a lot can and will change between now and then. For some reason there are way too many (or at lest persona’s of one or two) blogers on here that seem to take ever thing way out of proportion. That system for late next week could be a rain or a mix or a snow storm or it could go to our SE or NW where we could get either not much of anything or just rain. There is still a lot of time before anyone gets too wound up one way or the other.
    SlimJim

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looks like the rain has jsut started to change over to snow here, but the temp is still 36° so do not expect much for now.
    SlimJim

  5. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Interesting map from the 12Z GFS regarding next weeks storm.

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/302113266233131008/photo/1

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Here is the 12Z European model snowfall amounts for the next 10 days.

      https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/302148778859835392/photo/1

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, I sure do love the “new normal”! It is currently SNOWING, an arctic cold front will be moving thru, the lake shore is in a Lake Effect SNOW WATCH, we will all be seeing SNOW this weekend and then a MONSTER SNOWSTORM by the end of next week!! BRING IT ON!!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          I look forward to Monster Snow! Just getting SRS (snow/rain/sleet) here with a bone-chilling (because it’s “damp”) wind. Hopefully for Gun Lake’s Winterfest, the snow predicted for Friday night will move just a fuzz east and bring us fresh white stuff!!

  6. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    What a nasty day. Everything is slushy and muddy around my house, and there is currently a rain/snow mix. At least the temp has dropped a few degrees since noon. This week ended up being a warm week. Near 40 degrees late Sunday, early Monday, yesterday, and today.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      It’s rather breezy here on the hill overlooking the lake….brrrr!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I predict the monster SNOWSTORM for the end of next week will be even bigger than the models currently show! Get Ready!!

    1. Jack says:

      JEM Model…. Huge Snowstorm…. Last 7 Days.. Of…. FEB. Stay Cued ! ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Rock on Jack – the JEM and RDB model have been all over this storm! I hope we get absolutely hammered. Temps in 20′s, wind and 18-24 inches of SNOW!!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Ooooh – I’m loving that thought!!

        2. Jack says:

          This Storm just maybe THEEEEE BLIZZARD of 2013, Stay hyped and CUED::::::::::::::: ;-)

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          If the current models are correct it could be the Biggest SNOW STORM of this century! We can only hope that the models are onto something! The one positive is that all of the models show a big SNOWSTORM for us! The GFS, EURO, DXEX, JEM and even the RDB! ROCK N ROLL is here to stay!!!

        4. Jacob G (Kent City) says:

          Not to ruin in on your parade, a storm exceeding 18″ will not happen with a eastward movement storm. The legendary storms with high snowfall totals work there way in from the SW and you will get socked with significant overrunning moderate snows well ahead of the main low pressure system. Now this one does have a lot of moisture to work with and could slow down but I don’t see much more then what we just had a week ago but could be more wide spread and effecting more counties.

        5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          We shall see and this storm has some great potential!

        6. I always wonder who the first person was to forecast 2 feet of snow and a blizzard a week in advance.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          This is about as good as it gets from a synoptic storm. This was the Halloween storm for MSP and DLH: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Halloween_blizzard Minneapolis got over 28″ of and Duluth got 37″.

          You don’t get that much snow with a storm that is moving along at a good clip.

  8. Tonka says:

    The Holland Sentinel is saying Friday and Saturday, we could be looking at 8 to 10 inches. Is this accurate? Whens it going to start?

    thanks to those who respond. Appreciate it.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is very possible. The NWS has you getting about that much SNOW! If all the ingredients come together you could be looking at 12 inches of SNOW! ENJOY!

      1. Tonka says:

        Thanks Rocky. Im laid up with a bad neck, no driving, so I guess let it snow.

  9. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I just went outside to take some snow depth measurements, and it sure is chilly with that wind! I measured 4″ in my front yard which gets the most sun, 6.5″ in my back yard that gets the least amount of snow, and 7″ in our field. So I would say an average of 5.5″ even though the hills facing the south are thin/showing grass.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I took these pics this afternoon. The first pic is on West Main just east of US-131. As you can see, little to no snow by the road. The 2nd pic is from the field looking towards our house. Country > City.

      https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151453898361418&set=pcb.10151453900541418&type=1&theater

      https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151453898021418&set=pcb.10151453900541418&type=1&theater

  10. big Daddy BC says:

    Speaking of disappearing snow and ice. Have a look at this impressive video from James Balog.

    http://www.ted.com/talks/james_balog_time_lapse_proof_of_extreme_ice_loss.html

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes it must be the “new normal” :)

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Speaking of ice taking over the globe, antarctic sea ice at record high for the day…

      http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-record-for-most-ice-on-this-day/

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Now if we could only find a way to transport that sea ice to the melting glaciers.

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Think again, old white guy.

          http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/antarctic-ice-melt

          “Antarctica is losing ice mass while gaining ice extent. This is a confusing point to some. There are a few keys that can help us understand what this means in the context of global warming.

          Land ice is different than sea ice. Antarctica is losing ice as illustrated below in the ice mass chart from the GRACE satellite.”

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Ah, age and race insults. Real classy. Shows you’re true character (or lack thereof) and it shows you’re getting frustrated and desperate. Your link is nonsense. Here’s reality:

          http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          Antarctic sea ice extent is at an all-time record estent, a historic maximum! The volume hasn’t shrunk by half…you couldn’t get a 3rd grader to believe that. Special interest climate profiteers that run on government grant money can shell out anything they want. They can call the Jaguars the best pro football team…they can call Bozo a brunette…but people can see that they are nothing but special interests, less interested in facts than in scamming grant money.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          I would think you’d like that label. You’re the one, after all, that called the democrats in this country NAZIs. No insult intended, but you do belong to a pretty exclusive group.

          My link is nonsense? Does that mean you don’t understand it? It’s pretty simple science.

          “The sea ice-extent is increasing as expected also. Context is important here. While it is warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), there are other things happening as well. It remains cold during winter which allows ice extent to grown each winter. Summers are warmer so ice mass loss results from that.

          Warmer oceans increase atmospheric moisture which adds to the ice extent around Antarctica.

          Models and studies hypothesized in the 70′s and 80′s that this would occur, so the observations are in line with the expectations and the results are reasonable.”

          It’s the science that explains an issue you’re obviously confused about. ;)

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          I NEVER called Democrats NAZIs. I factually pointed out that NAZI in German: Nationalsozialismus; English long form National Socialism. The whole second half of Hitler’s book, Mein Kampf was entitled ” The National Socialist Movement”.

          “Sea ice increase was expected” you say…hardly…you expected the opposite: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html You thought snow and ice would be “a thing of the past!” How’s that working out: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201001.gif LOL!!! You had to shift to reality by claiming that you “predicted” more ice and snow!! LOL!!! Desperate…you are so desperate…

          In the 70′s you guys were all talking about “global cooling”! http://viewfrommidamerica.blogspot.com/2010/09/from-global-cooling-to-global-cooling.html Dr. Bill Gray was the only one who correctly predicted that the reverse of ocean temperatures would warm the Earth! And he predicted the warming would stop, which it has! http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Even Hansen admits that global temperatures have leveled off:

          The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…. – James Hansen et al.

    3. Stacsh says:

      They won’t listen or care about facts. Why bother here? All about politics. If republicans said climate change is real, they would too. Same vice versa.

      1. Wmi says:

        In English please?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          :)

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Right on, Stacsh. Agreed, but I do love to stir the idiots up. And besides, it’s fun watching them scramble to support the unsupportable.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Idiots huh. Someone disagrees with your theory and they’re an idiot, that’s nice.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Actually, big Daddy is losing the battle for “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 a gallon “European level” gasoline prices. Even the most rabid of climate profiteers, James “Handcuffs” Hansen has been forced to admit that global temperatures have leveled off:
          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          Then we learn that CO2 emissions in the U.S. are FALLING, not rising: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UR11yvJyGSo

          Hard-working families don’t want to be forced to pay “skyrocketing” utility bills and $9 gas so that the money can be thrown into the general fund and doled out to special interests and cronies. Doubling your electric and heating bills will not budge global temperature and will burden the middle class, families, the elderly, minorities, those of fixed income the disabled and children.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Disagreeing with a theory, as in an ‘idea’ is one thing, but ignorantly battling against a scientific theory that’s supported by mountains of evidence just to gain political traction IS idiotic. Those who blindly follow men like Mr. Steffen because he’s a staunch republican and fail to analyze or think critically about the claims he makes are idiots. Sorry.

          http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/antarctic-ice-melt

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re the one battling science, data and fact…even Hansen has acknowledged the obvious:

          The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade… – James Hansen et al.

          NASA Global Temperatures: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Those who follow special interest shills like bigDaddy and the climate profiteers are a shrinking minority. Carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. are falling and are now at a 20-year low:

          http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UR7rQ_JS6So

          It’s about jobs and the economy, not about confiscating large amounts of money from the middle class to fund boondoggles that reward campaign donors and cronies:

          http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house

          http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          What’s shrinking? …Certainly not consensus on the issue of climate change or CO2 emissions as the primary driver. That’s hilarious. Do you remember last summer, the hottest one the northern hemisphere has ever had on record. Do you remember July and 108 degrees in West Michigan? You’re a broken record.

          http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/antarctic-ice-melt

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Wrong..the highest in G.R. last summer was 104 – that was four degrees cooler than the highest temperature of 1936, when it was 108 in G.R., 111 in Newaygo and 112 in Mio. That was 77 years ago!! And it hasn’t been warmer since. Check this out: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/07/12/the-heat-wave-of-1936/

          As I said…CO2 emissions are FALLING in the U.S. and are at a 20-YEAR LOW: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UR7rQ_JS6So You look silly challenging the data!

  11. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The monster SNOWSTORM is still showing up on the 18Z GFS and 18Z RDB model!!

  12. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Any idea of what mb was for the Ground Hogs Day Blizzard 2 years ago? The 18Z GFS has next Friday’s storm deepening to 988mb between Chicago and west Michigan.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It will be even stronger than that by the time it hits West MI!! Get ready for the MONSTER storm of the decade and maybe the century!!!

      1. fixxxer says:

        Oh great now rj is talking like indy.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      According to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_31_%E2%80%93_February_2,_2011_North_American_blizzard it was 996 mb or 29.41″.

      I remember we had a gust to 49 mph here at WOOD. It’s not just the central pressure, but the pressure relative to what’s around it. If it’s smack dab against a big high it can still be a big storm, even if the central pressure it’s spectacular.

      1. Jack says:

        Nice…. Here’s Hoping That This Hits on 2-22 or There after ! JEM model would get another Bullseye ! That would be Awesome. 2for2… Hee Hee…. ;-)

      2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Thank you for finding that, Bill. I’m not very good with determining the power of the storm other than knowing a lower pressure means a stronger storm. And in my opinion it’s almost always the wind that is the crippler in storms like these.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    All long range models show a lot of COLD and SNOW at least thru the end of this month and probably well into March!! The warm weather nuts and snow haters better just face the facts and go hibernate!

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      YES!!!! 2-3 feet coming over the next week or so!!

    2. fixxxer says:

      Or you can get your golf clubs ready in a few weeks.

  14. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z GFS looks like it would be all snow GR north…south of GR looks like 8-10″ possible..then a changeover to rain for a few hours, and then back to more snow. Total precip is showing at least an inch or more liquid…it would stay all snow north of GR with a foot plus across a large area. It looks to start sometime around Thu. afternoon and continue into Friday. It’s a week away, so things will change.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      This map shows the total precip from the for the entire storm, including any leftover lake effect on the back side off the 18Z GFS.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p60.gif

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Looks great, only bad news is that the GFS is almost never right about anything from 7 days out. Hopefully the blind squirrel theory works out this time.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          All of the models are showing this storm not just the GFS and the amazing thing about this storm is the fact that all of the models have been showing this storm consistently for the last two or three days! I realize that does not mean the storm will happen, however this does increase the likelihood of this storm actually verifying! Lets hope the models get this one correct! Bring on the COLD and SNOW!!!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          I really don’t like it when meteorologists say snow north of GR and rain south… What does Grand Rapids get then? Snow or rain? It’s like a hit or miss situation for us

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Nathan, way to far out to tell right now. They will have a better handle on this thing early next week.

  15. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We have been getting snow for the past couple hours here. Roads are slick.

  16. Mikeyd says:

    Snowing like crazy in Portsheldon Wow this will add up fast.

  17. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Warnings for parts of the u.p. Nws says 10-18 inches, with 2-3 inch rates per hour possible, 15-25 mph nw winds. Wow!

  18. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    This monster storm everyone is talking about is about 7 to 8 days out. Alot can happen between now and then. Dry slots, change in weather patterns, anything can happen. I might get happy next Wednesday, if it looks like a major storm. Look at all the times we have seen big storms heading our way, and then something happens. We need a major amount of snow, and spring rains, to prevent another drought here in Michigan. Our Great Lakes water levels are way too low and the Mississippi River water levels are real bad. We need a major snow storm here in the mid-west also. It will be fun to watch to see if this storm does development.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yes Larry, the lakes, rivers, and the entire mid west really needs that. And yes, it will be fun to watch.

      1. fixxxer says:

        No brian it wont be “fun” to watch.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I know this is a foreign concept for you fixxx, but some people like to have fun and enjoy life.

    2. fixxxer says:

      #1 i dont need a snow storm.

      #2 i have no desire for a rainy spring.

      #3 stop believing long ranges.

  19. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    The snowfall forecast map that channel 8 uses for the lake effect seems to be on the light side. It gives me 1″ of snow through Saturday night. Although it could happen, I highly doubt it will.

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Yeah the latest NAM seems rather low for here too. It gives at least .25 inches water equivalent, but only 2 inches of snow, which seems rather impossible considering the liquid to snow ratios will be rather high. I think the models are having a hard time with all the factors that are coming into play and are significantly underplaying things at the moment.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        .25″ water equivalent would be 5-7″ for lake effect most likely. They always have trouble with the lake effect. Channel 17′s forecast model showed some pretty impressive lake effect from Friday evening through Saturday evening for the usual places west of US-131.

        1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

          Yeah I just checked out their sight & it looks like it. On a side note to that, I’m shocked to see that Rick Mecklenburg is their chief meteorologist. He used to be for one of the stations down this way across the stateline in South Bend, but got into lots of trouble & got fired from what I heard. I was quite shocked to see him when I just looked on their website though. lol

        2. Keith Thompson of channel 3 giving my area and most of the typical lake snow belt areas 6-10″.

        3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          Yup, they give me 5-9″ more than channel 8′s snowfall forecast model. And with what has already happened this year, a 6-10″ 24 hour event has been very common for our areas.

  20. CAROL says:

    Glad it is not on the I-94 corridor this go around..but maybe next week..we will see..we are usually in for at least one big storm per winter and we haven’t had that in the eastern counties yet.

  21. rory says:

    snowing like crazy in holland!!!!! snowday?

  22. fixxxer says:

    You guys can keep the snow. Bring on spring i say!

  23. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z GFS shifted next Friday’s storm SE, and now puts the low over Toledo instead of right through west Michigan. Biggest shift I’ve seen it make on this storm over the past 3 or 4 days.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Nice, though still a long ways away. Get the shovel ready fixxer.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Lol i dont shovel snow anymore.

    2. Jeff (Richland) says:

      If you want a big snow storm, you want the low to pass south/south east of us. Having it travel right over us would dry slot us bad, so this is a good thing.

  24. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I received 1.1″ of snow for the 14th giving me 29.65″ for February so far, and 66.2″ for the winter.

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