Thursday PM – a little rain/snow
February 14th, 2013 at 3:23 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Happy Valentine’s Day Night! The BIG STORY tonight is temperatures falling below freezing are going to cause some very icy patches to develop on roads, sidewalks, parking lots and driveways. Those icy patches will be a concern for the morning commute and could even cause a few school closings if unpaved roads get icy. Second, we are getting mostly light snow…most areas get an inch or less accumulation, but that will add to the icy road potential for tonight and tomorrow AM. Watch your car thermometer. When that gets below 32, be very careful. Remember bridges and overpasses often ice up first. For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total precipitation for W. Michigan.
Model update. The European has just a dusting of snow from G.R. east. It has 1/3rd inch of rain to snow next Tues. The GFS also has rain to snow next Tuesday. The NAM caribou has the same dusting for G.R., but does print out heavier lake-effect snow mainly Friday night and Satuday with S. Haven getting the most with a little over 7″, Holland gets 5″, Ludington 3″ and Muskegon 2″. We lean toward the higher lakeshore amounts.
88 degrees yesterday at Orlando and Palm Beach FL. Ramona CA set a record low at 23. Over 2″ of rain fell at Montgomery AL, Savannah GA, and Charleston SC. It was a very welcome 0.92″ of rain in Wichita Falls TX. Also, there was a partial roof collapse due to the weight of heavy snow at the ill-fated Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukraine.
Oh Mr. April, where are thee?
Hey sw kent u know how to read??? LK EFFECTT SNOW WATCHES OUT!! INDY….
10-12 INCHES OF SNOW COMING BY SUNDAY FOR WEST MICHIGAN HOLD DOWN THEE FORT!!! WINTER IS STILL SNOWING STRONG!!! STAY TUNED INDYY..
Hey INDY u know how to read? No LK EFFECTT SNOW WATCHES OUT FOR KENT COUNTY!!
* POTENTIAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. That is for Ottawa and the other lakeshore counties in case you couldn’t read the warning map.
I guess by your measuring standards your 2 inches you could get could be 10-12 inches in your book lolol
Probably 2″ or less for GR. Lots of north in the wind direction. Hopefully next week we can get some good synoptic snow.
DAAAAA WHO SAID KENT COUNTY!! OK FIZZER 33!!! INDYY..
NWS Detroit talking about 1″ precip for Tuesday but could be mixed with rain now. Next chance at a storm would be Friday.
NWS GRR never seems to go out as many days in their outlook – unless I’m looking in the wrong spot?
Two days ago it was too far south for us to get any snow, hopefully it moves back south. It is still a long ways out.
Wow Bill u have some real snow haters on your blogg maybe they should go to the store and get more !!! Last we knew it’s winter right???? so sorry winter is running a little late this year May is only 3 months away !!!! INDYY..
Lake effect looks like it will start with NW winds, then go NNW. Heaviest at this point looks to be in far SW Mich.
GET READY WE HAVE 2 MAJOR SNOW STORMS COMING NEXT WEEK NOWS THE TIME TO GET THE HOUSE IN GEAR WARNINGS ARE NEAR!!!!! STAY TUNED….INDYY…
WHY ARE YOU ALWAYS SHOUTING IN YOUR POSTS.
Great question Sparty. All I hear on this end when he writes is blah, blah, blah.
HOW MANY NAMES NOW??? OR HOW OLD ARE HOW OLD ARE WE BEAT 33 KEEPS GOING AND GOING AND GOING!!! INDYY…
Off to a rather mild start to the day the temp here in Walker at my house is now at 36° To me it looks like most of this weekends snow will be near the lake should and to the SW of GR and for next week??? its still a toss up as it could be mixed with some or a lot of rain. With several systems heading across the US in the next few weeks there is a chance that one of them may give west Michigan a big snow event but do not count on it one way or the other and all the wish full thinking by some will not make it happen (or stop if its coming) My take is that West Michigan will have a near average late winter heading into early spring.
BTW my total winter snow fall for GR is still in the 60″ range. But that could change with one or two big snow storms or end up being closer to 50 to 55″ without a big storm or two….
SlimJim
One has to wonder why the HPC came out with their snow fall totals
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Look at the 4″ for days two and three
SlimJim
Left Rockford at 7:25 this morning, and the snow as coming down at a moderate clip and covering the roadways quickly. Temperature was 30 degrees. It stayed that way until roughly West River Drive, and then it quickly changed to mostly dry conditions and only wet roads.
A few inches tonight & Friday then 8-12 additional coming for Berrien Friday night & Saturday + more additional snow next week. SPRITES YA’LL!!!!!!!! http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ077&warncounty=MIC021&firewxzone=MIZ077&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch
The sun keeps peeking out!!!
Right now it is sunny and fairly warm out here in the Alger Heights area, looks like another beautiful winter day!
The passing precipitation is falling as all rain here in A2.
12Z GFS still showing the biggest storm since the blizzard of 2010 heading toward Michigan by the end of next week. Lots of changes I am sure regarding the track, but all models agree on a big storm.
INDY…..get the Sprites ready. Update from Tom Skilling (minus the satellite photo):
“Well, there it is! That arc of clouds southwest of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands is the basis of model forecasts of a formidable mid-US storm system–the details of which are impossible to know with precision at this time range–over at leas the past four days. This is certainly to be one of the systems followed closely in and out of meteorological circles in the coming week. This is an era in which many of our biggest weather events have been picked up by our models more than a week in advance–The 2011 blizzard, Hybrid Sandy and last week’s mammoth New England blizzard among them. So the fact that multiple models and their ensembles are onto something cooking later next week with this one and have been for days–a meteorological event which could take place a little over a week from now from the looks of things–warrants notice. What isn’t known–and won’t be for some time, is what form its precip may take and precisely where and in what quantities it will fall. That’s what makes following the evolution of huge weather systems so fascinating”
12Z Canadian model gives us more snow with the Mon/Tue system, but misses us to the south with the big storm late next week. UKMET has rain to snow for early next week.
Wow, I’m sitting at 40°, and I think we’ve already had more melting snow today than yesterday.
“IT SEEMS TO ME WITH NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING THAT THEN BECOMES MORE NORTH NORTHWEST ALLEGAN AND VAN
BUREN COUNTIES WILL GET THE MOST SNOWFALL. EVEN SO SINCE A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE EVENT FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW”
These events usually leave me right on the line of getting nailed, and only getting a few inches. Let’s hope for just a NW wind, and not a NNW wind.
It still looks like much of the event will be NW…but not sure how much that would amount to…4-6″ perhaps…then add on 2-4″ or when the winds go NNW so the heaviest should be right near the lake. GFS still shows more of a north wind and takes the band off shore more quickly.
The GR NWS is talking more of a NW than NNW. They give me 6-8″, and from about Allegan to the West 10″. Which is very typical for a NW event. I have a feeling it is going to be a short lived, but intense snowfall Friday night into Saturday morning.
well i assume the rest of the winter will be crap along with spring. l@@ks as were back to a “typical” west michigan pattern.
More fuel for Indy.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151441256901760&set=a.10150114911481760.319343.87625716759&type=1&theater
WE HAVE TO GET THEE FORT READY BLIZZARD BILL IS COMIN G TO OUR TOWN SPRITES LIGHTS CANDY AND ICE DOG FOOD CASH AS WE GET BASHED BY WHATS UP COMING 20-25 INCHES OF WINDY SNOW LOCKnLOAD NOWS THE TIME TO GET IN BLIZZARD MODE!! STAY TUNED ….THIS COULD BE OUR BIGGEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL EVER!!! INDYY..
Ignore button for caps posts engaged.
Can you tell me how to do that?
wow more blogg scammers!! INDYY..
INDY… you and all of your aliases are incredibly annoying and really clutter up this fine blog with nonsense. Caps lock is the most annoying thing you could do to people that read this blog. Believe it or not most people come to this blog to find information on the weather… not read about your life. You really need to spend some time on Facebook or Twitter. You seem lonely.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s just blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Yeah, because everybody else talks about weather only…
So that makes it ok? Whatever.
There is room for everyone…..and some days if it weren’t for Fixxxer and Indy, there would be 3 or 4 posts per thread on ‘boring’ wx days.Believe it or not, i’ve heard people talk about weather inside a church building…or at political functions, so feigning shock that anyone could be so presumptuous as to offer personal or political opinions on a wx-blog seems unnecessary…
Silence is golden sometimes.
Hey michigan won….. YOU OFF…… Lolllolool..;-)
what? I don’t get your point.
There are other places on the internet to go when there are “Boring” weather days. And other social networks. This is a weather blog. Not a political blog or a religious blog. The point I am making is that there really is no need to type in all caps or have multiple aliases. To each their own I suppose but I bet most people would prefer to just stick to relevant weather related posts that are not all hype and bluster.
I agree 100%
Blue Roster, U are Wrong!! So CUE YOU !!!!! ps. Last I checked it’s BILL’s BLOG !!
God Bless….anyway… 
It is Bills Blog… you need to keep reminding that yourself when you keep logging in as one of your many aliases and spewing ridiculous comments! I can’t think of one of your past posts that was intelligent in any way! You are ruining what was once a great blog!
Blue Roster, Real name ??? Or alias ? Where oh where are your intelligent, Weather comments ??
It is an alias. My only alias. And I don’t know very much about the weather so I don’t “predict” anything. That is why I am here on this blog. I want to read about the weather from intelligent people that know much more about it that I. That is where my frustration with all of the nonsense comes from. It just clutters up the blog and makes it harder for people like me to find the information we are looking for.
Fair Enough Blue Roster, I came to Bills Blog, 2 learn More about The Weather, which I have always been Intrigued with, Since I was a child ! I have learned TONS more about it, From Bill’s Links and others on Here, CORT, comes to Mind First ,awesome LINKS, and Learning Tools ( bookmark Em).. I also Enjoy, The FAMILY, Side of BILLS BLOG !!! I guess My advice 2 YOU, is Take What Ya Need and Just LEAVE The REST ! Ya, Get my DRIFT ( wheather word)
Peace God Bless, and Stay Cued ,, 
BLUEROSSTER LOLOLOLO PLAY A SAD CUE FOR HIMS UNCLE JACK!! INDYY..
BlueRooster you’re absolutely right. Many forget this is a weather blog and detract from the discussion by posting non related stuff.
One has to wonder how much longer this blog is going to be going. It must be filling a need other wise it would not be here this long. But its safe to say when Bill S. retires the blog will then end for sure.
SlimJim
I totally agree. And it will be a shame! Thank you for all of your insight and information Slim. You are a model poster for this blog. If only others would follow your lead.
I’ve been a lurker for a long time and just started posting not too long ago. I always enjoy your posts, Slim.
This weekend lake effect snow event (if it develops) will be in a rather small area very near the lake and to the southwest of GR. In GR and areas to the east I feel there may not be much snow fall at all. And the system early next week may end up being a good amount of rain for Michigan. Then the system late next week??? We will have to keep an eye on that but its still way too early to make a prediction one way or the other.
34° here with light rain still falling.
SlimJim
There was a recent post about snow coverage across the US. Does anyone know how we stack up versus historical averages and NOT compared to simply last year?
On February 13th, the contiguous U.S. had a 43.7% snow cover. I looked at data for the past 10 years on Feb. 13th. The highest was 68.1% in 2010 and the lowest was 21.9% in 2005. The average of the 10 years was 42.3%.