Sunday

February 17th, 2013 at 2:10 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Catching some serious air in this pic. from Pando Park NE of G.R.  Looks like fun.  This’ll be a great Sunday to get outside and enjoy some winter sports.  9:15 PM – I’m down in the basement with my wife.  We have a fire going in the wood insert, the cats are wandering around the basement, I’ve got a nice tropical beverage…nice night.  The past 2 days I’ve been at the Public Museum.  We saw the Titanic exhibit.  I thought it was very interesting.  We also saw the planetarium show and most of the rest of the museum.  It was a cool day in the Southeast.  Orlando had a high of 55 and a low of 38.  Miami had a high of just 59.  It was 33 this morning at Daytona Beach and 24 in Tallahassee.   Cold this AM here in Michigan, low temperatures:  +4 G.R., -6 Holland and Zeeland, -7 Hudsonville and West Olive, -13 Lawrence, -18 Leota and Grayling, -26 in the U.P. at Wakefield and Watersmeet.  Muskegon was zero, Kalamazoo +1 and Battle Creek -1.  Lansing with only a trace of snow on the ground stopped at +10.  When was the last time that Lansing’s low was 16 degrees warmer than Holland?  Snow on the ground:  trace, Lansing – 4″ Ford Airport, G.R., 8″ Muskegon, 17″ Hart, 18″ Gaylord, 21″ S. Ste. Marie, 23″ Marquette, 24″ Houghton, 31″ Hoist Basin.  So far, the month of February is 2.9 deg. cooler than average and today will drag that below 3 degrees.  Some places are down below zero to start this Sunday.  Here’s current Michigan weather observations.  Here‘s Michigan skycams.   Muskegon is up to 69.9″ of snow for the winter, getting back closer to average.  Grand Rapids is up to 45.5″.  We have less than half a foot to catch last year in G.R. and Muskegon is already ahead of last year.  Hey, check out the picture/video here from Spain.  That’s a wall of snow up to 29 1/2 FEET deep (3 stories high).  Check out the video here.

Model update – overnight runs:  European says it gets to at least low 40s by late Monday (mid 40s I-94) with .55″ precipitation for G.R. – mainly rain with 1-2″ of snow on the backside as the cold air comes back in.  It has 0.27″ of precipitation next Thurs. night/Friday and that would be a mix to snow (if all snow about 3″).  The NAM (caribou) has 0.27″ for G.R. late Monday – Monday night with 1.6″ snow to follow. Other snowfall forecasts for Tues:  4.2″ S. Haven, 3.3″ Muskegon, 2.1″ Holland, 3.5″ Cadillac, 0.3″ Lansing.  The GFS (caribou) has 0.37″ rain for G.R. late Monday-Monday night then 1.8″ snow…and another 2″ of snow on Friday.  S. Haven is 4.8″ of snow mainly Tue. and 2.1″ Friday.  Kalamazoo is 1.7″ Tue. and 2.1″ Friday.      Here’s the GRR NWS summary of the weekend snow.

Tuesday could be a tougher driving day.  With temperatures falling below freezing and a snow showers, things could ice up quickly on the roads.

Also:  Meteorite fragments have been found in Russia.

94 Responses to “Sunday”

  1. Jack says:

    First, Hey Bill we Need to get Those SNOW inches UP, for THUR ./ Fridays Storm !! Also NEED the Wind to RAMP Up. A good Sunday Morning 2 All , and a CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpYKyTz7b3k. God Bless…. ;-)

  2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Nonsense. We need HEAT!!
    I can smell APRIL already! Whoo-hoo!

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Meh 2

  3. Vincent(N.E.Kent Co) says:

    Down to 5.2 Above now. It feels colder than that. I will be good for one more big snow, then bring on Spring. Hey,only 21 days untill time change. Then it will be light till 8 pm. Hot sumer nights will be here soon.

  4. Dan says:

    Yep, 8 degrees outside, seems like April to me. NOT! Winter is NOT done here yet.
    We will get a couple really good snow makers into the month of March!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      we shall see danny.

  5. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    -3 the low this morning. Very rare for this area to go below zero.

  6. Brent - Zeeland says:

    I had -6 at 2:30 this morning. Went past Lansing last night. Can’t believe the lack of snow from the eastside of GR to Lansing.

  7. Paul (Barry State Game Area in Yankee Springs) says:

    Bottomed out at -3 here in the woods….

  8. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    So…..no snowstorm of the century for the end of the week now?

    1. Sparty says:

      No, that was the figment of Indy’s and Rocky’s delusional imagination only.

  9. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Sounds like the Tuesday morning commute could be rough. Flash freeze Monday night, followed by strong winds and lake effect/enhanced snow. I suspect there won’t be much accumulation but the combination of ice, snow, wind should be enough to make the roads treacherous. The Friday system looks anemic with perhaps 1-3″ of wet snow. Beyond that….a big rain or snow maker possible 9-10 days out…and more up and down temps as we head into March.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      If it plays out it could be like the one last week where we did not get much snow but it sure did look bad at times. And the roads were slippery at best.
      SlimJim

  10. big Daddy BC says:

    How many more inches of snow do we need to get above-average precip for the season…my prediction from November?! I also predicted above average temps. Bill said below average. Could it be that I’ve beaten the Great Conservative Pontificator two years running??? LOL

    1. SW Kent says:

      If you were right it’s only because you got lucky.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Perhaps, but Bill hasn’t gotten it right in years. I’ll be at two and two.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Sure I have. I said global temperatures would level off, you said they’d rise like a rocket from Cape Canaveral. Here’s what happened:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          You said snowfall would decrease dramatically because of so-called “global warming”: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html that didn’t exactly work out: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/02/Figure41.png

          Here’s what’s happening to the climate profiteers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7GJcKuVGm8

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          *Smiles and shakes head as Storm Team Eight sidesteps the conversation*

          We were talking about seasonal predictions for West Michigan, your actual job. LOL

          And Bill never predicted anything would level off. A couple years ago he was on here using Bastardi’s ‘work’ and claiming that global cooling was right around the corner. That, obviously, never happened. Instead we had the hottest summer on record, hottest month on record, record ice loss in the north, and record droughts in Europe and North America. This summer in the southern hemisphere looks like our last summer in the north.

          But back to West Michigan. You did ask me to bet. I WAS specific and so were you. It’s hilarious that you’d deny it. It doesn’t really matter. I expected you to honor the bet in the same way you honored last winter’s loss.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s NOT my job to make seasonal forecasts. It’s my job to attract thoughtful, intelligent weather enthusiasts to Bill’s blog with my mostly near-term weather-related threads. If I get an extremist, lying (about Mitt Romney, my wearing a “big Daddy” shirt and other things) special interest shill to come on several times a day, that’s fine – it increases my hit count. Now, click on a banner ad.

    2. fixxxer says:

      im sure not seeing any above average temps.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      Bill didn’t say below average. Bill didn’t make a winter forecast. The people on the blog know that you are a serial liar, like when you said that Romney was a polygamist. He’s not, you lied. Global temperatures have held steady for a decade now, you and your special interest shills didn’t see that coming. Now even Hansen has been forced to admit the obvious:

      “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…”. – James Hansen et al.

      “. . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data.” – James Annan

      1. ~ Sandy~ from Dewitt/Clinton County says:

        Thanks for clarifying, Bill!! Always good to know these things!

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          HE didn’t clarify, unless he’s Bob Dole and is speaking in third person about himself! LOL

          And anyone who’s followed the blog knows that he dared me to bet him. I did and was very specific – for the second year in a row. Own up, Bill (and the team that posts as you.)

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          I don’t post as anyone else and no one else posts as me. We had no such bet. The truth is simple

          1) Carbon Dioxide emissions in the U.S. are falling and are at a 20-year low: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USEpF2e3hi8

          2) The science, the facts, data and logic clearly show that global temperatures are not rising: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade….” – James Hansen et al.

          3) You have wasted too much of the money you’ve received to “correct” this “problem: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house and http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Then why do you talk about yourself in third person??

          Hansen goes on to say, “The current stand-still of the 5-year running mean global temperature may be largely a consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominantly El Nino conditions, and the second half had predominantly La Nina conditions.”

          He also describes the effects of aerosols and black carbon, two additional variables that cannot be ignored. Keep on cherry picking those quotes, Storm Team.

          But again, we were talking about your actual job as weather forecaster. You and I had a bet about this winter, which you’ve conveniently forgotten about.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          LOL! It’s happening every day! Here’s another scientist who’s switched and is now a skeptic: http://notrickszone.com/2013/02/17/meteorologist-dominik-jung-turns-skeptical-after-germany-sets-record-5-consecutive-colder-than-normal-winters/

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.

          Even Prof. Phil Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2LIqhR1HG
          Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

          Hansen’s own data says global temperatures have leveled off: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          All taken out of context again. Get some new material. Not one of these scientists has said that anthropogenic climate change isn’t real.
          Even the catholic church agrees that it’s our moral obligation to stop climate change.

          http://catholicclimatecovenant.org/

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Not taken out of context at all. NASA data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Temperatures have leveled off. Scientists are jumping ship: http://notrickszone.com/2013/02/17/meteorologist-dominik-jung-turns-skeptical-after-germany-sets-record-5-consecutive-colder-than-normal-winters/

          We want union jobs! Build the Keystone Pipeline!!!

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          What’s taken out of context are the quotes you like to post. I’ve shown in almost every case how misleading your cherry picked quotes are. I’m sure if you followed anyone around with a mic, you’d pick up evidence of just about anything you want.

          You’re dishonest.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Not taken out of context…the quotes, data and facts I share can be checked at the links I provide.

          For instance…this is THE NASA graph of temperature over the past 10+ years: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Look at the period from 2002 to the present. Global temperatures have been steady…flat…not rising. There is no other way to spin this. Hansen even admitted it. Phil Jones even admitted it.

          CO2 emissions are FALLING: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USRrufJS6So There’s no other way to spin it…it’s plain and obvious.

          You’re scheme to force skyrocketing, confiscatory utility rates on the poor and middle class is foolish, unnecessary and will be a terrible burden on our economy.

          BUILD THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE! We can either use Canada’s energy in a cleaner manner here in the U.S., or Canada will sell it to China where it will be burned in a much more unclean fashion…not counting the CO2 that will be emitted by ships taking the oil to China. You’re actually helping the environment by building the pipeline…and creating thousands of good paying jobs, many of them union jobs.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        That was it..I said 67″. We’re at 45.5″, so I’ve got a ways to go, but it’s certainly doable. I think we get enough precipitation. The question is will it be cold enough to get most of that as snow instead of rain. The storm track missed us for much of the winter. We’ve had above average snowfall since 1/21.

      3. big Daddy BC says:

        And my prediction was above average precip in the form of snow OR rain. That’s one of the effects of climate change as has been predicted by the experts. This isn’t difficult.

      4. Bill Steffen says:

        You were talking about the massive drought and the Texas St. Climatologist and I set you straight about that…not related to so-called “climate change”.

        Global temperature has been flat for a decade now. The global temperature for 2012 was less than 4/100ths of a degree from average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_2012.png

        CO2 emissions are going down: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USEpF2e3hi8

        Global temperatures are flat, even the most rabid of climate profiteers has been forced to admit that:

        The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade… – James Hansen et al.

        Snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere has actually been INCREASING (and it’s not increasing because it’s getting warmer!): http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/02/Figure41.png

        We’re exposing the fraud and waste of government global warming boondoggles:

        http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle (thanks to the investigative team at WOOD-TV for exposing this!)

        and http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house

      5. big Daddy BC says:

        Again, they sidestep the actual subject of West Michigan’s winter forecast. You were wrong and I was right. Of course it’s not over yet. If you’re lucky it’ll get REALLY cold and not snow or rain again until spring! Can’t wait to see you wearing that I LOVE BIG DADDY T-SHIRT on the air!

      6. Bill Steffen says:

        I didn’t make a seasonal forecast. If I did – go find it, I haven’t erased anything from the blog. Despite today, we’re still more than 3 degrees colder than average for February!

        You need to buy (no I won’t give you one free) one of these shirts: http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2011/06/bills-blog-t-shirt-cartoon.jpg I get a royalty on all the shirts the Russian couple sells there on Red Square!

      7. Bill Steffen says:

        CO2 emissions are FALLING: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1

        NASA confirms global temperatures have been steady for a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        Even the most rabid of climate profiteers has been forced to admit that fact: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

        US floods have not increased over a century or longer (same globally).
        US hurricane landfall frequency or intensity have not increased (in US for over a century or longer).
        US intense hurricane landfalls are currently in the longest drought (7 years+) ever documented.
        US tornadoes, especially the strongest ones, have not increased since at least 1950.
        US drought has decreased since the middle of the past century.
        US East Cost Winter Storms show no trends (here also).
        Disaster losses normalized for societal changes show no residual trends (US, other regions or globally).
        Trends in the costs of disasters are not a proxy for trends in climate phenomena.

        Links to document the above at Dr. Roger Pelkie Jr’s blog here: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/02/a-case-for-playing-it-straight.html?spref=tw Check it out.

  11. Scrap Man says:

    Just came across this article today.

    A leading climate scientist predicted that the Arctic would be ice-free in five years — five years ago.
    An article in The Guardian published in August 2008 reported the Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey Calif., and his team produced a forecast “which indicated that by 2013 there will be no ice in the Arctic, other than a few outcrops on islands near Greenland and Canada, between mid-July and mid-September.”
    Maslowski said: “The crucial point is that ice is clearly not building up enough over winter to restore cover and that when you combine current estimates of ice thickness with the extent of the ice cap, you get a very clear indication that the Arctic is going to be ice-free in summer in five years.”
    The article also quoted Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University in Britain: “Now the most detailed computer models suggest the Arctic’s summer ice is going to last for only a few more years.”
    Arctic ice did not disappear last summer, however. And the National Snow and Ice Data Center has reported that the “average sea ice extent for January 2013 was 5.32 million square miles.”
    President Obama showed that he has bought into the global warming hysteria when he declared in his State of the Union address on Tuesday: “For the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change.”
    Respected climate scientist Richard Lindzen, who is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in remarks quoted by the Climate Depot website: “Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Scrap Man? LOL …Another Weather Team avatar.

      I love that you have to put, “Respected climate scientist” before the name Richard Lindzen. Generally we don’t ‘qualify’ people unless their UNqualified. This guy is THE ONLY MIT prof that doesn’t believe climate change will result in a 5.1 degree by the end of the century (MIT’s official prediction.) He’s the MIT holdout that actually attended the Heartland conference of global climate change deniers. This group is so radical in its assertions that even John Christy said he wouldn’t attend due to the possibility of “guilt by association.” LOL

      This is who the Storm Team 8 Weather Team puts up?? LOL Hilarious

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Lindzen (read about Lindzen here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen) is NOT the only MIT prof “that doesn’t believe climate change will result in a 5.1 degree by the end of the century”. 5.1 degree what? If you mean temperature rise…prove that EVERY other MIT prof that believes in a 5.1 degree temperature rise. That’s total nonsense, but typical of you. There are 1,022 faculty members (professors of all ranks) at MIT (from MIT facts). There is no one more to the left, more panic-stricken, more rabid than “Handcuffs” Hansen. He’s been arrested now 3 times…the latest last week, chaining himself to a White House fence because he’s mad at Obama. Even HE wrote this:

        “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

      2. Kris McHale says:

        Get real. If I say the sky will be purple in the year 2105 due to algae growing in the sky thanks to increased temps and therefore increased clouds and therefore increased moisture NO ONE will be alive to call BULLSHIT when it doesn’t happen. Thanks MIT for making a prediction that NO ONE will be here to laugh at when the time comes.

        Go post on MSNBC blogs, that seems to be your intellectual speed dude.

        1. Irish coffee says:

          ALL boils down to POWER & CONTROL!….gov’t hypes a crisis-in this instance “climate change”, then offers a ‘solution’ which transfers 100′s of billions out of private hands(via increased taxes) and INTO gov’t coifers….followed by massive gov’t restrictions/regulatory controls aimed at limiting freedoms of individual property rights, movement/ transportation,etc…when all is said and done, their(gov’t) ‘investment’ influences the temp. LESS than .1C/century, but that doesn’t stop them from celebratory song and dance w/guest Beyonce and lobster tails at White House! It wasn’t too long ago that Obama promised to “not rest” til people needing/wanting jobs were back to work …but reality shows since that comment he has taken 2 months of VACATION, and played MORE golf than any other Prez. in HISTORY!! Sadly,he probably was too busy getting beauty sleep during Ben Ghazi affair to be bothered w/ briefing ;(

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Yet it’s the nerd republican Governor Snyder that’s proposing a gas tax! Right-wing paranoia, in this case, doesn’t quite match the situation. Democrats are not talking about climate change, scientists are…ALL OF THEM! Go crawl into your ‘freedom’ shelter with your gun collection and wait for the democrat supported end of days. They own the scientists and are probably somehow warming the temperature just to get their hands on your tax dollars…POWER AND CONTROL! LOL

        3. Irish coffee says:

          +1 BDBC!…UNlike yourself, i’m Independent= AGAINST many of Snyder’s policies…also Bush’s BIG gov’t liberal spending policies….POWER AND CONTROL?- yeah, dems have Senate + HOUSE(WHITE)= TOO MUCH POWER+ SPENDING!!!!!!!Maybe we need to wait for Ms. Pelosi to PASS before seeing what’s INSIDE HER!The ONLY true bi-partisan support in past 4 years was 97-0 vote AGAINST Obama trying to facilitate economic SUICIDE via HIS $$$$$$$$$ budget! LOL

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          How funny is that you linked FOX NEWS!!!

          So, I take you’re for the second Michigan tax hike as proposed by Snyder. You can accuse Obama of whatever you want, but the proof’s in the pudding. Your republican Governor has been for raising taxes on the middle class since he took office. I guess as long as he’s giving all that cash to the rich in the hopes it might trickle down on the rest of us, you’re okay with it, huh. LOL

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          How funny that you link to “TED”, the guy who opens his video with a picture of Al Gore!!!

          Did you miss this video: Hey BigD – got just the car for ya: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html?_r=0

          BUILD THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE! More union jobs!!

        6. Irish coffee says:

          Should also double drilling permits, in addition to Keystone…+ a couple dozen of the new safer , more effective modern nuclear plants…triple fracking /nat. gas, dig more coal– we could be energy independent w/in 7 years, w/o gov’t interference.Technology will provide MORE efficient/effective/cleaner forms of energy in time(if free-market is allowed to flourish), but for now- we need carbon-based fuels for manufacturing, energy + transpo.

        7. Irish coffee says:

          Hey BDBC : how often do you criticize &/or challenge liberal Dem. policies or Pres Obama’s ? Have you NO issues w/ Dem party politics?Or are you political party slave? For instance Teacher’s Unions violate R.I.C.O statute by pimping dues from teachers then prostituting the $ out to Dem. party!You probably have no problem w/ political pandering if it serves YOUR will/self(ish)-interest. BUT, if union dues were collected and subsequently handed over to Catholic Church/Vatican- you would probably bust a walnut!

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Who’s Ted? I didn’t link to anyone named Ted. Have another Martini you old alcoholic. LOL

          I can’t believe Irish has the nerve to start spouting his crap after a year of silence. You’ve been hiding from me since last spring when you refused to pay up on the bet you lost. Unions cannot use union dues dollars to pay for campaigns. It’s illegal and if you think they don’t all get audited regularly, you’re standing too close to Bill’s mud trumpet. Get some perspective and back away, Sycophant. And before you start accusing me of being married to a particular party, how about looking in the mirror. We need ‘clean’ fossil fuel now? Really? There’s no such thing as a clean fossil fuel, Nimrod. There’s renewable and nonrenewable. That’s it.

          I love it that Bill’s claiming not to have erased any of the threads or posts and then asking me to go back and find where he challenged me to a bet. Idiotic. All the regulars saw it and if you want to lie about it, who cares. You have no credibility as anything more than someone’s strange uncle with half an education who spouts ignorantly about taxes and black people around the Thanksgiving table. Keep on, Uncle Billy!

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          All you’ve got left is insults and lies. I have not erased any of my posts or comments. Wood is renewable!

          From Dr. Roger Pelkie:

          In a nutshell here is the state of the science (here I focus on the US as Shepherd did):

          US floods have not increased over a century or longer (same globally): http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/01/extreme-misrepresentation-usgcrp-and.html
          US hurricane landfall frequency or intensity have not increased (in US for over a century or longer):
          US intense hurricane landfalls are currently in the longest drought (7 years+) ever documented.
          US tornadoes, especially the strongest ones, have not increased since at least 1950.
          US drought has decreased since the middle of the past century.
          US East Cost Winter Storms show no trends (here also).
          Disaster losses normalized for societal changes show no residual trends (US, other regions or globally).
          Trends in the costs of disasters are not a proxy for trends in climate phenomena.

          Links to document the above at Dr. Roger Pelkie, JR’s blog: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/02/a-case-for-playing-it-straight.html?spref=tw

  12. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well, here we are more then half way thru this short month and so far this has been the worst (or best) month of this winter. We are not only running below average temp wise we are well above average snow fall wise as well and we are on tract for average to above average total precip as well. Now looking ahead into a cloudy Chrystal ball what do we see??? It almost looks like more of the same, some rain, some snow, some wind, and some sun. With temps up and down. So no big storms expected some good warm up and then good cool downs. All in all a typical late winter pattern for Michigan. So What will March bring?? Hold on to your hat (windy maybe) keep your shovel ready (snow maybe) dig out your water boots (mud for sure) keep your umbrella handy (rain for sure) also we should see the first 50° (likely) the first 60° (most years) first 70° (many years) and in some years first 80 (almost rare)
    SlimJim

    1. kevin. w says:

      I don’t need to add anything to that.

    2. Jeff (Portland) says:

      Way to cover it Slim Jim .:)

    3. Brad says:

      We had our first 50s and in some cases 60s in January. 70 is the next target.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Despite reaching 45 degrees late this PM, G.R. is still 3.1 degrees colder than average for February.

  13. spoon says:

    Another busted winter that’s starting to be the pattern. Rocky and indy were way off with ever storm that showed on the models.

    1. Barb says:

      We’re not well above average snowfall for the season, and the swings in temps, super storms, etc. seem more common than any other time in my lifetime (well over 50 years).

  14. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    CPC now has me in above average temps from Feb 22nd on.

    I was hoping for at least one big snow before spring, but it’s not looking that way.

    100% sun here with a dusting of new snow last night.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      And the “Travis Who Lives Somewhere Else Boy It’s About To Be A Scorcher Roadshow” continues unabated.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Ah, the snow nuts are getting restless when they don’t even like you bringing up a CPC that doesn’t show what they want.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          CPC forecasts on the weekend are completely automated, ripped right from the GFS. If you want to count on it, go for it.

        2. Cort S. says:

          That, and a 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures is not the same as a call for above-normal temperatures. These outlooks are probabilistic, not deterministic.

          But the general trend nationwide that is being portrayed is the correct idea to keep in mind… a cold trough in the west, a warm ridge near the east coast, and in between will be the spawning region for low-pressure systems, with good chances of precipitation for us.

        3. Cort S. says:

          (And you can infer that if there are going to be low-pressure systems frequenting our region, there will be those naturally associated temperature swings as well.)

  15. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Like i said, spring around the corner folks . ;)

  16. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We received 4″ total over the past 2 days giving me 33.65″ for February, and 70.2″ for the season. 61.05″ in the past 27 days(2.26″ per day average)!

    1. Barb says:

      A very different story in SE GR.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Yup, 10 miles to my east/south/north only received about an inch and are a lot thinner in snow cover.

    2. Todd In Nunica says:

      its been a very impressive 4 weeks here along the lake shore for sure! Not sure I can remember a year when we had so much snow in a month.

  17. SW Kent says:

    We are in a NO snow storm pattern.
    Looking ahead looks just like I predicted a week ago……typical late Feb weather.
    Warm front, cold front , a little rain a little snow.
    4 inches of snow on the level in Byron Center.
    Still predicting a warm second half of March when we will see our first 65 degree temps…..

    1. Me :-) says:

      I am ready for the second half of March :-)

  18. Jack says:

    JEM Model********** Sunday Update ******Snow STORM******** Still ONNNN**** Last WEEK of FEB.. ******* STAY CUED. ;-)

  19. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Tuesday is looking like quite a nasty day for driving. Flash freeze Monday night and windy with a good 2-4″ of snow late Monday night and Tuesday.

    1. Jack says:

      Exactly, Winter is Not, Over ! Folks ! ;-)

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Basically deja vu of last Sunday/Monday. Hopefully the roads aren’t as bad as last Monday though.

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Another storm 9 days out looks exactly the same as Mondays storm.

  20. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    No big storm this week. Maybe we will have one last big storm before spring. I hate to hide and hunt for easter eggs in the snow. I am still looking for that golden egg.

  21. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    What a beautiful winter day. It was nice needing to wear sunglasses.

    I’m looking forward to spring also. You bloggers are getting grumpy.

  22. mr. negative says:

    Cold with snow and overcast, Feb, Mar, and Apr. Michigan weather does not unfold according to Unicorn sightings, or the obsessive use of the word “maybe”.

  23. Storm waning says:

    A powerful low will bring strong winds and heavy snow to the Central Plains Thursday and that system will weaken significantly before reaching us Friday. We’ll still see several inches of snow despite the weaker status of this storm.

    Per the good people at WOOD

    Poof! So much for all the swagger by some who said in regard to Friday’s storm that “you can count on it!”

    1. Storm waning says:

      “It” being…. A BIG STORM, now it’s going to snow, that’s all, a few inches of white stuff to keep the car washes busy on Saturday and Sunday.

      Spring is startling to say, HALLO!

  24. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Looks like temperatures will starts warming soon! I really hope we skip March and move straight to the heat and thunderstorms! (Although if it affects the crops then nvm)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      And Bill I need a picture of us so I can put it as my avatar :)

  25. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    The Friday “Storm” wont be the big BLizzard we all wanted but I believe we it will be a brush by storm. as of now I’m thinking 4-6 inches

    Stayed Tuned

  26. Jack says:

    Jack says:
    February 17, 2013 at 4:49 pm
    JEM Model********** Sunday Update ******Snow STORM******** Still ONNNN**** Last WEEK of FEB.. ******* STAY CUED.

    Reply
    Repeat….Update !, ;-)

    1. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

      Will it be a blizzard? If not, I am not interested.

      1. Jack says:

        Maybe, Maybe Not. Hence STAY CUED !!! ;-)

  27. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z GFS and Canadian give the lake shore counties a period of some decent lake effect/lake enhanced snow and pretty windy for Tuesday. Canadian also only gives us about 6 hours of snowfall on Friday, but it looks like it could be snowing pretty hard for 3-4 hours. I wouldn’t be surprised if some places in the lake shore counties received 8-10″ for the week.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        LOL!!…not to mention what actually ‘drives’ the electricity to power said vehicles(hint: dirty coal!:)

  28. Peggie says:

    does anyone have a link to the pic of grand rapids that was taken from a satellite. i saw it on the noon news but can’t find it now.

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