Cool Start to MarchFebruary 21st, 2013 at 3:56 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
This is the 8-14 day outlook for the first week of March from the Climate Prediction Center, showing higher probabilities for cooler than average weather for S. Lower Michigan and much of the east. If you look at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), you can see that it’s below the zero line (negative), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) trends negative and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) goes positive. That combination does not lead to warm weather for Michigan and the East in general. So, we’re pretty confident that we won’t be seeing a significant warm-up for awhile. Keep in mind that average temperatures start to rise at a faster clip now (mid 30s today, upper 30s by the end of the month and low 40s by the 2nd week of March, so if it’s a little on the cool side, we’re still looking at temperatures in the afternoon a little above freezing most days. We remain close to the general storm track. While I see no really BIG storms…we’ll continue to get above average precipitation and at least some (if not most) of that will be snow. When the pattern breaks down (2nd or 3rd week of March), we’ll see more days in the 40s and even 50s. We are gaining daylight at a rapid rate now, about 2 1/2 minutes per day. The overnight models were cool. Both the European and the GFS keep our temperatures no warmer than the mid 30s into the first couple days of March. The European has 0.4″ precipitation Friday/Saturday and 0.62″ from next Tuesday thru Weds. night. That would be rain or a mix to all snow. Muskegon is up to 39.1″ for the month and 78.7″ for the season. Holland has had a little over 41″ of snow for February. Kalamazoo has hit 50″ for the season and Oshtemo is a little over 58″.
WOW, they’ve had a little snow in the U.P. Grand Marais reports an average snow depth of 43″ with 10-12 foot drifts! Other snow depths: 37″ Munising, 33″ Twin Lakes and Mohawk, 31″ at the Marquette Airportm, 30″ at Watersmeet and 26″ at S. Ste. Marie. In Northwest Lower, Gaylord has 19″ on the ground, with 13″ at Traverse City and 12″ at Lake City. In our area, Baldwin checks in with 13″, Scottville 12″, Nunica 11″, Muskegon 10″, Fremont 9″, Hart 8″, SW Grandville 7″, Big Rapids 4″, East G.R. and S. Bend 3″, Hastings and the Ford Airport in G.R. 1″ and just a trace in Lansing.