Winter Weather Advisory ends at 1 PM
February 21st, 2013 at 4:07 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area will expire at 1 PM. We’ll still see periods of light flurries and freezing drizzle this afternoon. Light snow tonight and tomorrow will accumulate another 1-3″. We get a break Sunday PM into Monday. The next storm on Tuesday is significant. It looks like rain changing to snow. If mostly snow, at least several inches accumulation will be likely with snow showers continuing into at least Thursday. Temperatures won’t be too far from average as we’re not really tapping Arctic air. Stay up with the blog and on WOOD-TV for updates this coming week. A special “hi” to everyone who was at the Kent-Ottawa Skywarn meeting tonight and congratulations to our WOOD raffle winners. One fatality today from a severe storm in E. Texas. There were 2 tornadoes and more than a dozen reports of wind damage and hail.
Season snowfall up to 9 AM: Grand Rapids – 1.4″ today, 23.7″ for the month, 48.2″ for the season. That’s still 13.8″ below average to this point and 7″ ahead of last year to this point. Muskegon had 2.7″ new up to 9 AM. They are at 41.8″ for February and 81.4″ for the season. That’s 2.3″ above average to this point in the winter and 36.8″ ahead of last winter to this point. Kalamazoo had 2.5″ as of 9 AM with 26.5″ for February and 52.6″ for the season, about 9″ below average for the season so far. I’m just going thru the model data now and I’ll try and update before I head into work. The GFS has the warm air making a run at Michigan on 3/10 along with the possibility of thunderstorms.
Maybe Holland will get to 50 inches for February after all.
Oh ya and plenty more SNOW next week. I see the NWS is already downplaying the system for next week, however the models also show this storm coming together!! Keep the COLD and SNOW coming for at least 3 more weeks!!!
So it looks like Bill and storm team 8 agree with the NWS! This is really fascinating as the models show GR getting closer to 5 to 6 inches??
Hmmm, Last week of FEB. Stormy and SNOW !! Where have we Heard that before ? I think I KNOW !… Loll… Stay CUED!
Bring on the SNOWSTORM, the cold temps and the BLIZZARD!!! You gotta love it baby!!!!!!!!!!
Wow! Rocky saying it’s going to SNOW!!! Never heard that before! Surprise Surprise!
Soooooo ready for spring!
You will need to wait about 4 weeks, so enjoy the SNOW and COLD!!!!!!
Where are you guys getting the 18z forecast maps from and seeing them updated so quick. The site I am using is still only showing the 6z forecast.
I am basing it on what the NAM model run shows – the actual 18Z snow map should be out very soon!
Ahh ok…thanks!
+1 Rocky! The NAM is in the KNOW!!! 18Z run will confirm my 5-8″+ prediction…. NWS is wrong unfortunately. SNOW TIME!
Bill take a look at this.
http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/135-atmospheric-co2-not-linked-to-humans-says-global-and-planetary-journal.html#.USZrmwv4Cus.twitter
Holy that’s a psycho cult. Scientology like. Sad people would even consider that lol.
well Stacsh it has been proven many times in peer reviewed journals that CO2 follows temps not vice versa.
No it hasn’t.
You have to concede (like even the most rabid of global warming enthusiasts) that global temperature has leveled off:
“The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2Laz4MNxp
and that CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USboj_KzeSo
Which is fine. I’m not on either side it’s just funny that people would post that garbage. I don’t care either way. I believe that the arctic ice is melting. That’s a fact. Otherwise whatever. For every article one side posts the other posts another. It’s sad that it’s become political.
It’s political because there is so much money involved. Remember this comment in the New York Times:
Dave | February 26, 2011 at 11:37 am | Reply
“I also have to agree with Jim West. My firm ‘belief’ in AGW had already been undermined by some extremely bad papers about mosquitoes, arthropod borne disease, and the effect a warmer Earth on wildlife (I am a biologist). But, I assumed these were just opportunists jumping on the gravy train and that the problem was with the journal review process, not AGW.
But the Climategate emails made it all too clear that there was no science at all in ALL these famous papers in Nature and other ‘prestige’ journals. Rather, all the sound and fury appeared to be generated by an unscrupulous cabal eager for grant money, fame, and lots of CO2 generating trips to warm and pleasant spots where they could regurgitate their story to a corrupted press and conniving politicians.
As far as I can tell now, many of the assumptions of AGW appear to be false, nothing that one reads on climate change from Nature to Drudge is reliable.”
Arctic ice is now at a greater extent than on this date in most of the last 7 years: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png and Antarctic ice extent is at a record high: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Yet here we are with the Earth warmer than normal still, still “cooling back down”.
The University of Copenhagen concurs…
http://news.ku.dk/all_news/2012/2012.7/rise_in_temperatures_and_co2/
The oceans warm from the sun and release co2, period. Co2 sucks as a forcing as is evidenced by the long periods of time temps do not rise while co2 does. 1940-1976, 1998-present e.g.
Stasch, what is normal? Going by agricultural productivity as a measure, I’d say we haven’t reached an optimal level yet. I sure as heck wouldn’t want to return to the temps of my youth. Besides, it’s been warmer than this three times since civilization gained a foothold. Each period was better than the cold times for the common man. Warm is good, cold is bad.
What’s “normal”? There is no such thing as static climate. We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers here in G.R. Global temperatures fell from the 1940s into the 1970s as CO2 levels increased: https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1152&bih=702&q=global+cooling&oq=global+cooling&gs_l=img.3.
For Global Cooling, the solution was the same as Global Warming…hefty tax increases and fees that go into the General Fund and out to those with connections to the politicians in power.
In summary:
CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USboj_KzeSo
global temperatures are flat: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
No need to burden the poor and middle class and further weaken the economy with “skyrocketing” utility rates, more tax increases and $9 a gallon “European level” gasoline prices.
I’ll add that both animal and human (even in this day and age) mortality peaks in the coldest part of the year.
Bill, please stop posting about palm trees in Michigan unless you also state Michigan was once near the equator. It’s a grossly misleading statement, and the smart folks on your blog do not appreciate being misled.
No, I won’t. “Pole shifting” is part of climate change. If you’re soooooo smart, why can’t you accept the fact that CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.USboj_KzeSo and that global temperatures have been flat for a decade: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
Yawn: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/fig1.pdf
Q is knocking and showing no signs of slowing down
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php
Q is knocking and showing no signs of slowing down
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php
It will be fascinating to see how much this storm actually shears and how much frz drizzle we end up getting? I am still waiting for the 18Z RDB model run before I make my official prediction
what site do you get the 12z and 6z from?
>>>>>>>LATE BREAKING WEATHER BULLETIN >>>>>>>>> This just in, the 18Z RDB model agrees with INDY and Bobby! Get ready GR – 4.5 inches of SNOW by Friday night and then another 2 inches by Saturday night for a storm total of 6.5 inches with more than that North of GR!!! Then another SNOWSTORM early next week. ROCK N ROLL will never die!
YUP!… Has the NWS been blindfolded?? Check out the 18Z NAM…. +10 for me & INDY!! WOOOOHOOO
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=DTX
Nice looking map – let’s hope it verifies. Most of that snow will be from tonight thru Friday night and then more light snow right thru the weekend. Could it be that Bobby, INDY, the NAM model and the RDB model are all correct and the NWS is 100% WRONG? It will be very interesting to see the result!! Stay tuned!
Seriously! Either the NAM or the GRR NWS is going to majorly BUST!
All it Is.. IS… Another JEM Model……. ” BULLSEYE “……. STAY CUED….. Thank- U !!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR
18z NAM really upping the snow totals…I’m on the line now for 6-8″ to 8-10″
Here is a list of available forecast model links that I put together.
http://supercellweather.com/models.htm
Thanks ! Mike G.
Good stuff, Mike .
Is that the 120 hour? If so, then it may be accumulations from Satursday-Tuesday. (If its just tomorrow then awesome!)
it’s the 84hr NAM
Ok, thanks. Not sure how to get models… Are others agreeing with it?
This should be a good start for you:
http://www.wxcaster.com//models_main.htm
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
Ok, thanks Bobby! It looks like the GFS doesnt agree with the NAM… But either way, you can’t trust models. I’m thinking a general 1-4 inches of snow across the area… Localized higher amounts are possible but unlikely at this point.
The 00Z & 06Z GFS runs were looking fairly decent… The 12Z was ehhh…. i havent seen the 18Z GFS snowfall as of yet…still waiting to see if it jumps on board. STAY TUNED!!
I think the NWS is down playing it because of the low liquid ratio… We shall see!
I know what you’re saying, but if that’s the case…it’s just silly. Especially early on, it is not going to be THAT warm. GRR just likes to set themselves up for failure….. or maybe they will somehow be right.
That’s pretty typical of them, they downplay the event and look at what the minimal impacts will be first to get a basis.
I went from being in the “up to 3″ in yesterdays 18Z NAM to “up to 8″ in todays 18Z NAM.
Channel 3 has the snow moving in by midnight, channel 8 only has us in the 1″ snowfall by 7am.
I don’t think anything/anyone is agreeing on this storm for our area! Hopefully we get another surprise snowfall like we’ve had quite a lot so far this year.
Either way, the heavier/wetter snow is an awesome base for the snowmobiling trail.
None of the locals know what is going to happen??? “end sarcasm here”
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_T7O_yHqa25I/R3p4MsUBvqI/AAAAAAAABGw/OzwjiwoVFR4/s320/gomer-surprise.jpg.
So is it 1-3 inches or 6-8 like the model is showing? Are they erring on the side of caution by advertising the less amounts?
5-8″ with localized 10″ amounts… (ME & INDY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION)
STAY TUNED!!
If in doubt always go with the RDB – 4.5 inches thru Friday then another 2 to 2.5 inches thru Sat night for a storm total of about 7 inches of fresh SNOW!! The trails are calling me! It looks like another GREAT winter weekend for sports!! I love it!!!
Did somebody say something about temps moderating and Winter being over? Is just is not true! More Winter weather is on the WAY! Lets see if we get 5 inches or more from this system (my location)! WINTER is STILL HERE! What do you make of the freezing rain? Do we actually get any? Seems to cold for Freezing Rain!
Oh ya all of the warm weather nuts and the warm weather biased people just will not face the facts. I have been trying to tell them for the last three weeks that we were heading for a good 5 or 6 weeks of COLD and SNOW! We are right on track so get used to the COLD and SNOWY pattern. There is no change in sight!!!!
too cold
Well Well BOYS & GIRLS….. EVEN THE GFS IS ON BOARD NOW…. 18Z RUN – - -
http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=APX
Bout… TIME… Stay CUED !!
Some of this SNOW will fall in the Monday night Tuesday AM time frame, however this is a nice looking map! Bring it on!!! COLD AND SNOW ROCKS!!!
Yes sir Rocky, but i think my 5-8″ with a few 10″ totals thru Saturday are looking pretty good as of now.
Agree.. Bobby.
10 inches…AT…. ” Theeeeee Yard of Bricks ???? Rite Indy ?????
Speaking of Tuesday, That should be a Very Interesting , 2 say the LEAST…. Stay Cued !! Side note Wings ahead 1-0 , Go RED- WINGS ! Stay PUCKED..
I really like the looks of the Tuesday storm and the Red Wings really need a WIN! There is nothing better than RED WING hockey while a SNOWSTROM in on the way!!!!!!!!!!!
Wichita is up to 14 inches, their second biggest snowfall amount since 1888. Too bad the storm is mostly fizzling as it approaches us. Unless you hate snow, then you’re lucky.
I’m not quite seeing the fizzling you speak of… Good flow of moisture yet from the gulf as the low works its way NNE. We just may have another case of NWS BLINDFOLD SYNDROME happening here
5 or more inches coming STAY TUNED!
Well, yeah, the increase in snowfall predictions since the past few days is a nice surprise. But I mean, 5 inches just isn’t quite as amazing as what Wichita got.
Well no haha… but we may have a change for a good one next week…. Jack & Rocky will fill you in… STAY CUED!!!
I’ve been watching that too. I hope the cut-off low lands just in the right spot, and Holland gets 5 days in a row of lake-effect. After that, I want spring.
The NWS is predicting 1 to 2 inches and WOOD TV is predicting 1 to 3 inches for the GR area thru Friday night. Who will be correct? The models and the bloggers or the experts? That is the question!! I am putting the over/under at 3.5 inches! The betting is now open!
I’m loving the reports of late I’ve got a sneaky feeling about this system. Should be a good Friday to sit back and watch it snow!
Don’t look at the radar. It will fizzle, especially with the dry air in place. 1 inch if slop at the most. It’s good to see forecasters not hail almighty computer model for once. They are always wrong any way.
So your over/under is set at one inch? I will take that bet for any amount of money! Name your price!!
I’ll throw down $100 on that haha
I will bet $100,000 on the over!!!!
TIME… Will TELL ! Spin : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK_hftXn4dk.
We shall see id definitely bet if you think over 4 for tomorrow.
I have the over under at 3.5 inches thru Friday night! I will take the over!
Where are the boundaries for some of these snow totals? Will be on the road @ 3am & be driving in it all day all over the state.
This will give you a rough estimate:
http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=GRR
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=GRR
When you look at the National radar it sure looks like the gulf moisture is feeding right into this storm as it heads directly for SW lower MI!!! I am very intrigued at how this storm will end up when it actually arrives in GR?
My thoughts exactly… apparently it is going to fizzle out
Why do you keep talking to yourself?
Why are you the debbie downer of the blog tonight? Take your misleading information and go apply for a job at the NWS. You’d fit in perfectly over there. No need to start drama, it was a joke. I’m sorry to get your panties in a bunch. Carry on.
Why do you even bother making lame comments? Are you related to fixxxer?
1-3 inches Rocky.
Next week is a light mix, maybe 2 inches at most.
Moderating temps and snow melt next week as well.
Relatively cold for early March, until about the 13th or so, then some 50′s!
That is too funny. You have been making statements like for this for about two weeks now and all we have seen is SNOW and COLD with no change in sight!!!! WINTER IS ROLLING baby!!!!!!!!!
wow
Get Ready GR – here is what you have to look forward to:
1. Snowstorm tonight!
2. SNOWSTORM Monday night and Tuesday.
3. Next week temps in the 2o’s and 30′s with on and off light SNOW after the Tuesday storm.
4. The first week of March well below average temps with off and on SNOW – maybe a big SNOWSTORM!
5. The second week of March still below average temps!!
6. By the third week of March the COLD and SNOWY pattern may actually start to change!
7. ENJOY WINTER PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) total snowfall plume for Grand Rapids:
Click Here
Range of snow accumulation is 2.5 – 6 inches, with a mean of 4 inches, by 7 pm Friday.
Thanks for confirming that my over/under of 3.5 inches is a good bet and I will still take the over baby!!!
Let me correct that. That was the 15Z run. This is the 21Z run:
Click Here
Still a range of 3-6 inches, with a mean of 4.7 inches by 7 pm.
Exciting to watch who will be correct, humans or computers. If we switch over to drizzle around midday as the human forecasters anticipate, these models are overdoing the snow accumulations somewhat.
That is even better!!!! ROCK ON CORT!!!!
Interesting – my prediction from about 5 hours ago was for 4.5 inches of snow thru Friday night! This will be very interesting!!!
I liked how Matt Kirkwood and then Rick Mecklenberg(fox 17) and I am hearing it a lot in other places to today on how they are calling this snowstorm “The Blizzard Of Oz”. Hahahahahahaha.
A cold east wind outside tonight.
Is anyone still willing to bet on the under – 3.5 inches?
I’ll bet 3.6in LOL!
I’m going with 1-2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts.
Prolly a 1-4 inch event tonight based on the radar trends right now. I’m definitely anxiously awaiting the next model run of the GFS & Euro for the Monday night/Tuesday storm though. The afternoon Euro was showing a pretty major storm & now the 00Z NAM is catching onto it as well. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Rollin,Rollin,Rolling…Keep those STORMS, a ROLLIN…….
Bill, do you know where we can purchase a copy of the book about the Palm Sunday tornado? It looked like a great read, but I didn’t win the raffle.
I’ll bet if we can contact Ernie – he’ll know!! If I had won the Outback Gift Cert – I would have traded it for a book! But I won neither – and would LOVE a copy, too.
HAHAHAHAHA…… The Adonis model on the futurecast has GR getting 12-18 inches with tonight’s system!
The Tuesday system might be a rain event. The temperatures are usual a little higher than forecasted around this time of the year. And I am not saying this because I had enough of the snow.
According to the latest radar, it doesn’t look as though it will snow very long since most will stay west.
Tom S says ” major storm coming tonight and Monday night
Winter is here and here to stay
>>>>LATE BRAKING NEWS>>>>>>> SNOW and Cold is Here to Stay!!!!!!! LET THE NEW ICE AGE BEGIN!!!!!!…Oh sorry Just Channeling my inner Rocky. Guess What…It’s Michigan, we are going to have snow and cold or at least a chance of cold and snow through March. Get used to it. Thanks Rocky, but I think we get it!!
BAM BAM BAM BAM SOME OF YOU NEED TO EAT ROCKY’S HAM!! WINTER BROTHER ADVISORY OUT DON’T MES WITH BILL’S BEST!!! STAY CUED!!! GREAT CALL ROCKYROCKFORD!! LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW !!!!! INDYY….
LOL Just as I thought, You are Rocky along with about 15 other people on here. I love reading this blog, or at least the post of the people that actually make sense. Thanks Cort, Slim, Kevin along with a few other that actually know what they are talking about, without posting the same BS every other post.
Deb u forgot Bill !! And what about your post how about BS BS!! INDYY..
SNOW ANS COLD IS HERE TO STAY!!!!!! BEWARE!!! MAJOR SNOW STORM COMING!!!! GO TO STORE NOW AND STOCK UP!!!! GONNA BE SNOWED IN FOR WEEKS!!! There Indy/Rocky feel better.
U learn fast u pass dEB!! INDY…
Went to the SKYWARN meeting tonight, got to meet a couple of the weather bloggers and had a nice chat with Bill. I was the person in the wheelchair.
Mike – it was GREAT meeting you!!
My sister, who’s tornado-phobic, was already getting the heebie-jeebies just looking at the Skywarn logo….ROFL!!!!
Short Term…Winter Storm Q will end up producing a general 2-5″ snowfall for NRN IL and produce a general 1-3″ maybe an isolated 4″ amt. for W. MI.
Long Term…There will be another stprm system affecting the graet lakes region for the Mon.- Tues. time frame. Right now this system is trending both colder and stronger than once was, howevete timing on the system is very uncertain at this point, for example, the GFS has the sysem over NRN MO./SRN. IA. Mon., whiles the Euro has the system still over the desert SW on Mon. So the Euro is trending a little slower than GFS. On the backside of the system there very well could be a significant L. Effect snow event especially for Mkg. NWd with a SW wind event. Models are are hinting at a decent shot of arctic air on the backside as well. The Euro also saying the system could have ample moisure with it at least up to 850 MBs. I will not give snowfall amt.’s as the system is still too far out, will wait for more model guidance before I release any snowfall amt.’s.
Like it Javon …Don’t forget thee greenRidge Block that may slow down systems coming and give us longer cold and more snow next week..One thing for sure March will have snow on the ground been a while since that has happend around town ..Should be a fun week to track rack and stack snow!! INDYY…
INDY, soon it Will Be Time 2 :::::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20Feq_Nt3nM. Oh, Yeah. BROTHER. !!!
Thanks INDYY!
And also for the east coast storm based on current model guidance, am thinking mainly, if not all rain for the coastal cities including Boston. Maybe some significant snow N and W of Boston.
Why do we always have to have snowstorms on Tuesdays?
I am supposed drive out of town to Muskegon for business. I am always driving out of town for business haha.
Flurries are RAMPANT in my neighborhood! I should run to Meijer and STOCK UP ON FOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
z-z-z-z-z…..
I think we will get about 3.6 inches here in Hastings. I have been right 50% of the time this winter(haha). Maybe by Easter Sunday, we will have spring type weather. I bet in the morning schools will start out with 2 hour delay, and then call off school. Looks like the weather will really get bad as the school buses will head out. I am ready for spring, so we can start camping again out at Yankee Springs, Gun Lake.
Armed with hindsight – good call, Larry! That’s about what I shoveled this morning!!
Well the winds are howling this am!! Woke me up about a half hour ago with a tree branch landing on the roof… Now all I hear is ice pellets hitting the window. Looking outside here the snow has covered by sidewalk again, and with the wind I cant see the sides of the walk anymore….looks like about 2-3″ here…and really drifting… be careful on your commute this am! reporting from Glenn, MI