Cool first half of March

February 25th, 2013 at 9:47 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

    Last year on March 11, the high temperature in G.R. was 65 degrees.  Five of the first 12 days of March 2012 were in the 60s.  This is the GFS model from the 18Z run for March 11 (2013).  Click on the picture to enlarge.  Now, keep in mind it’s the GFS and…it’s 336 hours out…and…it’s 99% likely that it’s overdone….but…WOW, that is one blast of Arctic air plowing down thru the Great Lakes.  However, with March starting with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, a very negative Arctic Oscillation and a positive Pacific North American Pattern…it’s a no-brainer that the first 3 1/2 weeks of March 2013 won’t be anywhere near as warm as the first 3 1/2 weeks of March 2012.   The average high temperature for March 1 is 38, for March 11 it’s 42 and by March 28, the average high is 50.

31 Responses to “Cool first half of March”

  1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    The ‘New Norma’ hardest hit

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Normal even

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    And yet, CPC says warm March. That would have to be one heck of a warm back half if, indeed, it starts below average!

    The Euro is warmer than the GFS as well.

    February’s been pretty average over on this side of the state. Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw were only about 1 degree or less below average before today’s warmer temps.

    Bring on Rocky. I’m looking at 6-8″ for me right now!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Including today…Ann Arbor and Pontiac are -1.1 for the month and Detroit is -1.4. Flint is -0.6 below avg. and Saginaw was -1.2 degree below avg. not including today.

    2. Brad says:

      Another warm meteorological winter (Dec-Feb)in the books!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        February about 2 1/2 degrees cooler than average. Looks like the first half of March may also be about 2 degrees cooler than average.

        Average U.S. temperature for the last 7 days 2.453 degrees C cooler than average!

        1. ~ Sandy ~ from DeWitt/Clinton County says:

          Thanks for sharing those facts!!

        2. Brad says:

          Right, I included February (that’s the Dec-Feb thing)…a warm winter. I’ll battle fixxxer and state I’m excited for a coolish early spring.

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Yep, another warm winter overall… especially on this side of the state. Dec/Jan warm, and Feb only slightly below right now.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          You are correct. It has been relatively warm. Per NWS GR, December was a warm +5.9, January was +3.6 and as Bill said above, February is approx. -2.5 so far.

    3. Irish coffee says:

      CPC will change their temp. map (valid Mar) on Thu…..showing much LESS areal abv avg temps, fwiw…and much to DT, JB, and Larry C’s chagrin(ALL were calling for well abv avg GL>EAST for Mar)

  3. Brian(Grandville) says:

    NO repeat of last March PLEASE.
    Or June
    Or July

    1. Slimjim says:

      Other then for a few hot days in July last summer was just great. But I would expect this summer will be cool then last.

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        Don’t care about the heat so much…lack of liquid was a killer.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        A FEW HOT DAYS. I guess at 34 I have still not acclimated my body to anything over 90. Those few days over 100 were some of the wost days off my life.

        1. Irish coffee says:

          “FEW”?????? LOL!! I guess you don’t define “HOT” as any day >90?….which there were MORE than just a “few” of last summer! More like FEVER-PHEW!

        2. Julie says:

          Having been very pregnant last summer, I would concur…..I hated last summer. I was never warm and my electric bill showed it. Would like to spend some more time outside this summer.

        3. Brad (Lawrence) says:

          Well, seeing how we had 30 some 90+ days last summer, I wonder if we’ll end up with only one 90+ day this upcoming summer. Remember 1988/1989 anybody?

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          I sure remember…1988 we had 10 days in June that reached 90, but we also had 10 mornings with lows in the 40s! We had only 1/4″ of rain in June after about 1″ of rain in May. We had 37 90-degree days that summer. The last was on 8/17 and I believe we didn’t get past 81 the rest of 1988. We had 62.4″ of snow in the winter of 1988-89.

    2. AleganJoe says:

      ** I DISAGREE **

    3. AleganJoe says:


  4. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Good chance we won’t see our first 50* day until after the 15th.

    1. Slimjim says:

      I don’t know about 50 but I would say we may not get above the mid 50′s before March 15. But not to be a smart a– but when I posted some events that could happen in march someone mentioned we already had our first 50 and 60 days. But any way yes this March will be much colder then last March!

  5. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Holy crap!!! Here’s Amarillo, TX today with the 19 inches of snow & hurricane force winds. Talk about whiteout!!

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      im shivering watching that!!!! lmao

  6. Mr. Negative says:

    Snow, overcast, dark, cold. No “warm-up” in sight, or imagined. This year, the new warm normal, is worse than Michigan’s old normal.

  7. ~ Sandy ~ from DeWitt/Clinton County says:

    Yay, fingers crossed for a bumper apple crop!!!!!

  8. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    00Z models are looking better for more snow in west Michigan. The NAM lowered totals for the Allegan/South Haven area, but increased them for Muskegon and to the east.

  9. Daniel (Denver, CO) says:

    The pattern is a very interesting one. This is the 2nd year in a row where Feb has been so far our snowiest month along the Front Range (Feb is historically our driest month). In looking at both the EC and GFS models, it wants to continue troughiness primarily east of 100W with some waves moving through on the NW flow. I’m questioning how long this blocking pattern can last though given we’re just starting March and the sun angle is getting pretty high in the sky now.

  10. Tonka says:

    Bring on the warmth!

    1. AleganJoe says:

      ** I AGREE TONKA **

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