Winter Storm Watch

February 25th, 2013 at 2:42 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   We have a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the entire area for Tues. afternoon and Tuesday Night for up to 6″ of (wet, heavy) snow.  If you look at the National Advisory/Warning Map, you’ll see the National Weather Service offices agree that the Plains storm is headed up here toward Michigan.  This storm will produce another 6-12″ of snow in parts of the Plains, more much needed moisture for them.  The system will weaken as it comes our way, with maybe 3-5″ here, so certainly not the biggest storm of the winter for most of us.  I anticipate the Watch being upgraded to an Advisory this PM.  It may come in two time periods, with a mix of rain/snow Tues. PM/night, then snow Weds. PM night.  Dry and cool weather will follow for Thursday and Friday. This storm will add or our already high February snow totals.  Muskegon has already set a record for February snowfall at 46.4″ and, while I don’t have snow records for Holland, their monthly total (also now at 46.4″ is either a record or very close to it.  Grand Rapids has picked up 27.1″ of snow so far this month.  In the meantime, enjoy a little sun today.  Through Sunday, we’ve had just 18% of possible sunshine this month.  There are patches of ice this morning, snow that has melted and refrozen overnight.  There were some patches of thick fog this morning, but they should evaporate by late morning.  High temperatures average in the upper 30s for the last few days of February and we should be close to that this PM.  Friday to Sunday look cool, with temperatures holding only around the low 30s in the PM – plan on another great weekend for winter sports.  The overall pattern looks cool for the first half of March (which would be much cooler than the first half of March last year.    This storm system will produce isolated severe weather from LA to NC, SC, GA and FL.

189 Responses to “Winter Storm Watch”

  1. Bring it on! I’ve been bored lately. I’d like to get some good snow footage before Spring comes. Heavy wet snow is my favorite kind, as long as it’s not too windy. I like it to accumulate on the trees, etc undisturbed.

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Chuck, you deleted me from your FB…. The rage inside me builds…. make this right or I’ll voodoo you!

  2. Mike Geukes says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    324 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=AFD&node=KGRR

    1. Mike Geukes says:

      AT THIS TIME WE ARE GENERALLY THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO
      LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WE ENVISION THE WATCH
      EVENTUALLY GOING TO AN ADVISORY…BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
      YET TO DO THIS.

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ZONE FORECAST
        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
        332 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

        MIZ057-252115-
        KENT-
        INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GRAND RAPIDS
        332 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

        …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
        TUESDAY NIGHT…

        .TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG UNTIL MIDDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
        30S. LIGHT WINDS.

        .TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
        MID 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

        .TUESDAY…WINDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY…THEN SNOW IN THE
        AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
        EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT.

        .TUESDAY NIGHT…PERIODS OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES.
        LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
        SNOW 80 PERCENT.

        .WEDNESDAY…LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS.
        HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
        70 PERCENT.

  3. Paul says:

    Bill, you were a “hippie”, I don’t believe it! Congratulations on your “Silver Circle” award Bill.

    1. Phil says:

      Yes, I agree! Enjoyed the segment on last night’s news giving the overview of your career. You are a true professional and well deserving of the award. We’re blessed to have you in West Michigan!

    2. AleganJoe says:

      He wasn’t the original….. “Hippie Dippie Weather Man” though!! LOL :)

      1. AleganJoe says:

        The weather forecast for tonight is dark…..with scattered rays of Light in the morning!! LOL :) :)

  4. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Huge differences between gfs and nam. Gfs would produce about 1-3″ while nam shows about 4-8″.

  5. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Well, I’ll throw my guess in here. 1.5 inches in Grandville of heavy snow from this system.

  6. Kris says:

    Silly weather question – in my mind, I think a “watch” is more serious than an advisory, but apparently not in the weather world?

    1. Cort S. says:

      A watch is usually a precursor to a warning, which is more serious than an advisory. A watch is just an advance-notice “heads up, this might happen.” A warning tells you something serious is happening or is imminent. An advisory tells you something more inconvenient (but still kind of serious) is happening or is imminent.

      Check out the warning map across the country: http://www.weather.gov/
      Warnings and advisories are out for places where the storm is happening or about to happen. Watches are farther down the line toward us. Our watches will get transitioned to warnings/advisories this afternoon or tonight.

    2. Melissa says:

      Kris – I had the exact same thought.

      1. AleganJoe says:

        I agree–the watch usually precedes the Warning…SO…I expect it to become a warning. Unless it slips by us….hmmm….yeah, slips by. :)

    3. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Same here. I always thought a watch was more extreme than an advisory, until I started visiting this blog. My mom called me today and said they had downgraded us from a watch to and advisory. I had to correct her and explain. She told me it doesn’t make sense. This just goes to show how messed up this system is. How many other people are thinking the same thing?

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      The HPC still has us in the solid 4″ range so we shall see. I think a 2 to 4 with some 5″ will be the outcome stay tuned.
      SlimJim

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well one has to wonder just how much snow will fall from this weeks system. I have been saying 3 to 6 for some time now and it looks like the NWS now agrees, but my thinking now is that may be now too high in the snow fall amounts. If the heaviest of he snow falls during the day time we may not quite get that much snow on the ground, while that much may “fall” not all of it may accumulate. We shall see. Right now its up to 20° here now (it was 16° earlier) with full sun.
    SlimJim

  8. Need to keep in mind on the last storm the GFS painted out a whopping 0.16 for alma but we ended up with around 6 inches ! So it might be weakening it to quick again and the NAM and the CAN show much more QPF and snowfall.

    1. Cort S. says:

      The 06Z models are the least accurate of the day, which appears to be primarily due to a lack of TAMDAR data (airplanes).

  9. DF (SE Mich) says:

    This morning’s model runs are looking good for Ann Arbor! I can’t wait.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Ann Arbor is 8-10″ off the NAM or 3-4″ off the GFS. Divide by two…..5.5″-7″ Actually, that is what the Wood model was showing that way.

  10. Tammy H says:

    I wanted to comment on the Ionia snow totals reported by news 8 during the last snow event. You reported Ionia got a total of 1.6 inches… my husband plows and I am here to tell you that Saranac got no less than 4 or 5 inches, and Ionia appeared to get approx. the same. Who gives you these details anyway?

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Most likely they get their info. from the national weather service spotter reports. Next time, have your husband measure and submit a report to the NWS follwing this link.

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/spotter/

    2. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

      I agree Tammy, there was enough to ge my snowmobile out. So definitley more than 1.5in.

    3. Remember that might have been a spotter report during the storm, if they don’t get a final storm totlal they will post the report they have, often thou they “NWS” will use the final total they have and do a map that will look more like the 4 or 5 you say you got but sometimes thats a day or days after the event.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Right, and watch out for those CO-OP and CoCoRaHS reports. They do 24-hour reports for a period that starts/ends at 7 a.m., so that would have been a source of discrepancy with the last event.

  11. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z NAM is not looking good for those hoping for a big snowstorm. Precip amounts are less than half of what they were with the 06Z NAM. Looks more like the GFS with amounts in the 2-4″ range for most of west Michigan…a little more in SE Mich.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Hey Jim…could you post the link to your much faster snowfall maps for the NAM? Thanks!

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Off the same site as the overlays…but this shows the entire U.S.

        http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

        1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          This usually loads faster than the overlay map. The bottom says 00Z which is the time of the 84hr map so it is the current map 84 hours from 12Z today.

        2. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          Looks like the 12Z NAM and GFS are now in good agreement on precip amounts. NAM backed off and GFS bumped up a bit. Looks like a general 3-6″ for most, with more near the boarder and far SE Detroit. NWS pegged it in their discussion if it ends up holding true.

    2. My 12z nam hasn’t loaded yet ??

  12. Nathan says:

    Is Chicago getting lake enhancement?

    1. Nathan says:

      Btw TWC has us in the 6-12 inch range! I doubt that’s right, I’m expecting about 5 inches here

      1. Skot says:

        Never trust a drive thru weather source.

  13. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    NWS Detroit is saying .6-.8″ of precip with snow ratios close to 8:1 due to the warm air (heavy, wet snow).

    So that would be what, 4-7″ ish for me? Not too bad. About in line with the two biggest snowfalls I’ve received this winter.

    1. Yep your in a very good spot as it looks now

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We will take it!

  14. Cort S. says:

    Congratulations to Muskegon. You set a snowfall record for February:
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=92856&source=0

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      And if you take Jan 20 – Feb 20 its like 60″+ Incredible 6 weeks of winter thats for sure!

  15. Again, models tend to weaken these systems to fast so plenty of potential, not that it will happen but it’s very well worth keeping an eye on. I’m thinking 4 inches give or take but wouldn’t be shocked if we got 5-8, that first band could really put down plenty of snow in a hurry and then deformation is just hard to know until it starts for form.

  16. Brian says:

    Here we go people,gas is going up to $3.99 today.

  17. Cort S. says:

    Blizzard footage from the NWS Amarillo:
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=569404203071482

    They were gusting 50-55 mph for a few hours.

  18. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    It looks like Detroit will have not have a tough time justifing a Winter Storm Warning for there CWA but what will GRR do with the counties along I-94 they’ll be border line warning critera there and most liekly a solid advisory event north of 94. However our weather service is gun shy so an area wide advisory is what I expect, unless there’s some increae in moister in this afternoons model runs

  19. Dan says:

    We are still about 24 hours away from event, so a lot could/will change! I am hoping that this is a decent snow maker for us! I’ll look at the model runs late tonight and early in the morning tomorrow!

  20. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    What happened? This map, in its latest update, went from showing a wide area of 6-12″ in Lower Michigan to no areas of 6-12″ now.

    http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/floater6_large.html

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      The 12Z NAM and GFS are in agreement now….from that, it looks like 2-4″ for most, but some in far SE Michigan could see a bit more. Here is the updated GFS map.

      http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        I’m thinking one more run and if it stays an Adviory will be issiued

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Thanks, Jim. Still not exactly sure what happened… if it’s weakening or a slightly more eastern track or what. But that was a big change.

        1. Dan says:

          Yes, really how unusual. Storm tracks and amounts of precip never change.

        2. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

          Quicker transfer to the east coast?

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      That is the weather channel for you.

  21. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    lol at TWC…Overall snowfall of 3-6 inches

    Tuesday 1-2 inches
    Tuesday night 4-6 inches
    Wed 1 inch

    That my friends is 5-7 not 3-6

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Maybe you work for TWC too? lol. From what you posted, my calculations come to 6-9.

  22. AleganJoe says:

    No doubt here in the Allegan area…we will most likely receive 3-6 inches or more. My vicinity is M-89 East and 26th Street. It doesn’t Snow here…it Avanlanches.!! :) :)

  23. fixxxer says:

    you got to be kidding me bill? how much more damn snow are we going to get this winter? i can tell the snow will be hanging on this year through april. back to a crap pattern, no high hopes for a good summer either.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Just enough snow to keep you whiny. On the other hand, I don’t think snow, or the lack of snow has anything to do with that.

      1. fixxxer says:

        don’t act surprised that i dislike winter.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I would only be surprised if you actually wrote something remotely positive.

        1. Skot says:

          He’s a fool, and we all know it.

    2. paul says:

      You said that last year.

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Check this out fix, all 40′s in the back end of the current 14-day forecast:

      http://www.wxyz.com/subindex/weather/forecast/7_day_forecast

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Check the link again, Travis. No 40s in the next 2 weeks on their evening planner.

    4. Move to Lansing – we have well below average snowfall here. What a difference 60 miles can make!

  24. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    This upcoming storm reminds me a lot of the storm on February 24th of last year. We started out being in the 6-10″ snowfall forecast, which turned to a 3-6″ snowfall forecast. I ended up with 6.25″, and places to my west received 8″. It was extremely wet, and heavy snow as well. It seems the models weaken them a little too much, so hopefully that is the case with this one too.

  25. paul says:

    Good 4-7 inches of wet snow for West Michigan.

  26. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Nice to see the sun on my lunch hour! I see GR is up to 39 already. Nice day.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Average high for GR is already up to 37° at this time of year. Spring is coming.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        GR’s up to 41… bump that forecasted high of 37 Wood! ;)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Clear and calm with the weather station next to cleared runways. That late February sun warming the tarmac! I bet it never got past the mid 30s in the forests.

  27. Dan says:

    Winter Storm Watch to go to a Winter Storm Warning? It doesn’t look like we get into the Warning criteria. However, I know that NWS is playing it safe on this way. A lot could happen. Do we get rain and/or a mix? Does it stay all snow?
    WINTER IS STILL HERE!!!

  28. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Spring Spring Spring !!! Melt that snow away !!!

  29. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Looking at the 16 day forecast from the GFS….no sign of spring in sight. That goes out into mid March….spring fever will be in full force by then. This last run actually has another snow maker early next week…followed by more cold.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Looking out the window right now would say otherwise. Just like yesterday, looks and feels like spring out right now. Grass is starting to show in the yard, and the fields are re-appearing quickly as everything is melting away. We went to Holland beach yesterday and all we needed was lite jackets. Parking lot was over half full. Any snow we get is going to be melting on contact.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      That’s weird because the weather guy I follow in Detroit says all 40′s and up beginning next Wednesday. I guess it depends what model you look at.

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Is it Jerry Hodak? Dude is older than Bill Steffen!!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          He retired in 2010… where have you been??? =) Kidding.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          haha I follow Chris Edwards the closest

        3. Dan says:

          Rob Kress still do the Weather for channel 7? I used to be a short order cook in the Farmington Hills area. Rob would come in and get breakfast where I worked almost every morning! He used to be pretty good. My favorite weather person from the Detroit area was Sony Elliot! He was the best!

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Poor Rob got Lyme’s disease. Sony was the man!

        5. Dan says:

          You are serious, Travis? Rob Kress got Lyme Disease? You were kidding, right?

        6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I’m afraid so, Dan =/ Found an article here backing up my memory.

          http://www.mlive.com/living/flint/index.ssf/2008/09/lyme_disease_often_misdiagnose.html

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      By mid march normal highs are well into the 40′s. The higher sun angle warms much more than it did a month ago, so even if the GFS says it is cold, it will be relative to March.

  30. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Thought this was interesting from Chicago NWS:

    WITH REGARD TO THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY…NO CHANGES TO
    GOING HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
    EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DURING
    TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH 2M TEMPS AND SNOW PACK
    WITH INITIALIZATION OF SNOW COVER THIS MORNING SHOWING NEARLY THE
    ENTIRE STATE OF INDIANA COVERED WITH SNOW ALMOST TO THE OHIO
    RIVER…WHICH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY LITTLE SNOW
    REMAINING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTH OF I-80 OR ANYWHERE BUT THE
    MICHIGAN BORDER IN INDIANA. PROGGED 2M TEMPS TOMORROW SHOW A SHARP
    GRADIENT RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF WHERE THE MODEL INCORRECTLY ASSUMES
    THE EDGE OF THE SNOW PACK IS WHICH RAISES SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT HOW
    COLD PROGGED 2M TEMPS ARE TOMORROW AND THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE
    OVER OUR CWA AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHERE THAT TYPE IS SNOW.

    WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL DATA
    INCLUDING THE ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
    WATCH HEADLINE…BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT OUR CHANCES OF
    REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ARE VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCH
    AREA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW DOES EXIST AND ANY TIME YOU GET
    CONVECTIVE SNOW (WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING) ALL BETS ARE OFF WITH
    REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL…BUT WOULD SEEM MUCH MUCH MORE
    LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATCH AREA WILL END UP WITH LESS
    THAN 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THAN IT WILL
    WITH 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO DATA AND WILL AIM TO HAVE
    ANY CHANGES TO WSW OUT BY 2000-2030Z AND NEW AFD BY 2100Z.

  31. kevin. w says:

    I’m seeing a more colder bias to the GFS than I am with Euro model. Yes it will be cool through mid march and nothing warm like last year, but I think the GFS is much more colder out in the long term like it shows during the month of October. The Euro still shows a couple of more snowstorms but once you go out past the 12 day mark on the euro were looking more milder at the surface so that may mean more of a mix/rain type of pattern than a snow/snowstorm pattern. Pretty much what Jim. S from Sagatuck posted about Chicago NWS 2meter temperature and were getting to the point where the sun angle will do more good now and it will have to snow harder during the day or especially at night for anything big to really stick. I’m saying were just now starting to wind down winter and average temps. really start going up once we get into March. I’m just going to enjoy the next few weeks of winter and then start looking forward to more of a spring regime. I talked to my brother in law up just northwest of Newberry and he says they have almost 6 feet of snow on the level up there. They must have got a lot of lake effect up in the U.P. over the past month and that’s good for them that might just keep the fires at bay this year for a change. Lake effect really doesn’t do a heck of alot of good for the water table there.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Was just going to mention that the Euro. is much milder than the GFS. GFS always has a cold bias….especially in the fall it seems.

      1. I believe the new Euro weeklies come out tonight. Be interested to see how they pan out.

  32. Nathan says:

    Normally I have spring fever by now, but not this year! Keep it cold and skip the fourties!

    1. Dan says:

      You may get your wish, Nathan. May stay cool right through March. I’m talking mid 30s, we shall see though. I doubt we get into the 60s or 70s until we get a month or two into Spring! I could be wrong but I think we stay cooler this March!

      1. RJ says:

        so, it will be May before we get to the 60′s? That is unlikely.

      2. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        I hope so at least for our farmer friends… would like them to have some good yields this year… Missed our apples from local places!!!

      3. Dan says:

        Not for sure, I’m just saying cool for a while. I am pretty sure that we will not get into the 80s like we did last March!

  33. Nathan says:

    North Texas got up to 20 inches of snow…

  34. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I didn’t think I was feeling it as strongly with this system. WWA issued.

  35. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    WWA just issiued,

    I’ll say it ends up on the high side of the Advisory criteria 5 inches most places

  36. Sparty says:

    The sun today and now multiple posts that include “spring” and “warmer” is making me smile today!

  37. Sparty says:

    Is the progression : advisory, watch, warning? In that order?

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      The Watch was issued first, now its an advisory,the lesser of a warning. They should translate that over to summer…you have a tornado advisory in effect please take cover at a semi rapid pace…warning would be take cover immediately.

    2. Cort S. says:

      A watch is usually a precursor to a warning, and a warning is more serious than an advisory. A watch is just an advance-notice “heads up, this might happen.” A warning tells you something serious IS happening or is imminent. An advisory tells you something less serious, more like an inconvenience to be aware of, IS happening or is imminent.

      1. Sparty says:

        Thanks guys.

  38. DF (SE Mich) says:

    It is the CPC vs WXYZ in SE Michigan =) Who will win?
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    Although, low 40′s are below average in 14 day range. That is why the CPC maps are lame.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Average on March 6th is 40. Starting March 6th, WXYZ has 40, 40, 45, 45, 40… so they are saying well above average temps.

      CPC says below average temps for this timeframe.

      I bet we get what usually happens (whether it’s Euro vs GFS or Wood vs Fox). A nice meet in the middle of the two.

    2. Dan says:

      Mother Nature will win! She always WINS! She always has the last laugh.
      Models, Shmodels! CPC or no CPC!

  39. Todd In Nunica says:

    Well Im not ready for the maples to start running so I say let it be cold a bit longer…lol

    (although they are probably running today!) :)

    Last 2 years I was tapping trees by now.

  40. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I hereby DEDICATE WINTER STORM “ROCKY” to all of the warm weather nuts and the people on this blog that are clamoring (almost begging) for warm Spring weather. Guess what – it is still winter and we have a good 2 to 3 weeks left of COLD and SNOW!! You will all be in for a rude awakening come Wednesday AM when we have 6 inches of fresh snow on the ground and then next week when high temps will be in the 20′s with SNOW! I love it! Get used to it!!

  41. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18z nam is more similar to its 06Z run…if true, we would be on the higher end of the 3-6″.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The GFS and NAM models are totally confused. The RDB model still shows a solid 5 to 7 inches for the GGR area. Get ready!!!

  42. I’m becoming concerned with the amount of warm air advection we will see. The models show quite a bit of warm air being pulled back to the NW around the low. That could really cut down some of the snow totals.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      The forecasted high this morning for GR was 37. It’s now 42 and sunny.

      I think this is a really good point. If the weatherman were at least 5 degrees off today on a forecast less than 12 hours out, just think what this could do tomorrow. Lots of variables still going on here.

      1. That’s part of why I was concerned. Another reason is, at least 3 storm systems that have been forecast to dump snow over the region have had more warm air advect in than expected. The overall nation’s weather pattern is very reminiscent of 2008. At least to me. A good example of a storm system was that freezing rain system. Things looked on track for freezing rain across lower Michigan, but warm air was pulled in over the NW side of the low, and the bulk of any freezing rain missed our region. We’ll see what happens.

        1. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          Indeed. Well put Charles.

          Steelie

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Too funny! Get ready for a SNOWSTORM people!!!!

      3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Yeah it’s amazing what a little sun can do. If it would’ve stayed cloudy we would’ve been lucky to get above freezing.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Right and I wondered what the maximums would be like in the old days with a solid snow cover in fields and forests, rather than having the weather stations at airports where the stations are surrounded by cleared runway and roads.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      All of this warm advection that you are referring to will actually increase our SNOWFALL rates! Bring it on!

      1. Not sure you understand what we’re getting at Rocky. Lol.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Check back with me on Wednesday night and we will see who understands more about this storm!!!

  43. SBPortage002 says:

    I will guess about 5 inches for my area by Wednesday morning. See how clos eI get.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      Ooops…hit something wrong before I finished my post. Anyway, I will see how close I get. I love winter and snow but come March I am ready for spring mode. So for me one more winter blow then I am ready for it to start warming up :)

  44. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

    Me too, that is our only income for one year (for me that’s three months of harvest). Last year was devastating. Alot of people think farmers are rich, there right, because they have to be able to weather the (weather) that’s out of anybody’s control.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      Here is to a more normal spring. For farmers sake.

      1. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

        Thank you.

  45. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

    Sorry that was a reply to SS (p well)

    1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      I know when we were all loving that warm weather…I kept thinking about the farmers!!! It was tough not to go to an apple orchard and get the apples and fruits we normally do. For whatever reason or local Blueberry place was full of blueberries…enjoyed our blueberry picking last summer and still enjoying them from the freezer!!!

      1. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

        That’s what I grow.

  46. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>>>>>>SPECIAL LATE BREAKING WEATHER BULLETIN>>>>>>>> Winter storm “ROCKY” will bring Grand Rapids 5 to 7 inches of SNOW! WIND, HEAVY SNOW and FALLING TEMPERATURES will create hazardous conditions. There will be school closings! Then we will have another 2 – 3 weeks of COLD and SNOW on the way! ROCK n ROLL baby!!!! Keep the SNOW rolling!

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      I’m calling for 1.5 inches. We’ll see who’s closest!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You are on. All bets are now open and the over under is set at 3.5 inches!

  47. North side of holland says:

    How much is holland expecting , dh’s plane comes in tomorrow

    1. Cort S. says:

      Here is one opinion, the HPC’s snow accumulation probabilities:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48&ptype=snow
      (Use the buttons on the right to select snowfall amounts)

      Through Wednesday evening, they give Holland a 90-95% chance of at least 2 inches, a 70-80% chance of at least 4 inches, and about a 10% chance of 8 inches. So, a snowfall forecast of 3-5 inches seems like the right idea for Holland. That’s from HPC’s maps.

      And it does seem that the NWS agrees with this. They are going for 2-5″ for Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent and 3-6″ for Allegan-Barry.

      1. Cort S. says:

        One other thing to note, this will be a wet, heavy snow.

  48. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    GRR kept things open for the chance of an upgrade to a warning notice the wording

    IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF HEAVY…THE ROAD SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MUCH QUICKER…AND LEAD TO A GREATER
    IMPACT. SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY

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