Winter Storm Watch

February 25th, 2013 at 2:42 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   We have a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the entire area for Tues. afternoon and Tuesday Night for up to 6″ of (wet, heavy) snow.  If you look at the National Advisory/Warning Map, you’ll see the National Weather Service offices agree that the Plains storm is headed up here toward Michigan.  This storm will produce another 6-12″ of snow in parts of the Plains, more much needed moisture for them.  The system will weaken as it comes our way, with maybe 3-5″ here, so certainly not the biggest storm of the winter for most of us.  I anticipate the Watch being upgraded to an Advisory this PM.  It may come in two time periods, with a mix of rain/snow Tues. PM/night, then snow Weds. PM night.  Dry and cool weather will follow for Thursday and Friday. This storm will add or our already high February snow totals.  Muskegon has already set a record for February snowfall at 46.4″ and, while I don’t have snow records for Holland, their monthly total (also now at 46.4″ is either a record or very close to it.  Grand Rapids has picked up 27.1″ of snow so far this month.  In the meantime, enjoy a little sun today.  Through Sunday, we’ve had just 18% of possible sunshine this month.  There are patches of ice this morning, snow that has melted and refrozen overnight.  There were some patches of thick fog this morning, but they should evaporate by late morning.  High temperatures average in the upper 30s for the last few days of February and we should be close to that this PM.  Friday to Sunday look cool, with temperatures holding only around the low 30s in the PM – plan on another great weekend for winter sports.  The overall pattern looks cool for the first half of March (which would be much cooler than the first half of March last year.    This storm system will produce isolated severe weather from LA to NC, SC, GA and FL.

189 Responses to “Winter Storm Watch”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    A WARNING will be needed for this storm! The fun is about to begin and then a great weekend for winter sports and then the following week get ready for well below average temperatures. I love it!!!

    1. Bobby (Ada) says:

      Rocky, i see your 3.5″ over-under and raise you an inch to 4.5″ over under ;) PLACE YOUR BETS!!! THE SNOW IS COMING STRONG TOMORROW AFTERNOON!!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Nice – if the over under is 4.5 inches I will still take the over, however I might not bet quite as much money!

  2. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Such a favorable track to .. But spring is just around the corner !!!! http://wintercast.tripod.com/id8.html

  3. Jim Shultz (Kzoo) says:

    I’d be happy with the snow that Wichita and KC are getting but I guess I’ll have to move south to see it.

  4. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    This was a nice day. 42* and sunny, I’ll take it for this time of year. Had a nice bike ride today and actually saw a guy on his motorcycle! Huh…

    I am really still on the fence with this thing. I think Charles brought up some good points earlier. Honestly, I think the bulk of the precip will be off to our East at this time. We might, might be in the 2-4″ range at this time. Let’s see what the models tell us in the morning.

    Steelie

    1. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

      Better Idea lets see what the radar tells us tmw evennng

      1. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        That too… ;-)

        Steelie

  5. Brad (Lawrence) says:

    We got 2″ from the last storm in my area. Thinking this will play out for me just like last time. I’m going with 2″ again.

  6. Nathan says:

    Haha, the Blizzard of Oz? I like it Bill!

  7. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Couple inches of snow coming .. Nothing major.. Spring baby is on its way !!!!

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      That’s what i said last storm, ended up getting more than that. I still think a good 5 inches for me. And yes, spring is indeed on its way..on March 20.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Correction, meteoroligical spring is only FOUR DAYS away!!

  8. Dan says:

    There is a lot of uncertanity about this system. NWS offices out of Chicago and Detroit seem to think that the warm air advection will influence the snow totals, trending them down. Also of note, is when the system begins to transfer its energy. Do we get a few inches of snow BEFORE this takes place?
    A lot of dynamics are still coming together with this system! We COULD get a major dump, it is possible! I’m still staying with the 6 inch total that I predcited over 24 hours ago! We shall see how that plays out! If I’m wrong, so be it. I’m just trying to figure this out and I certainly do NOT know what the experts know!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Hey, why not? Even a blind squirrel gets a nut every once in awhile.

  9. Tim says:

    Bill, you said south of Grand Rapids (Ottawa, Kent and Ionia County). The Northern Indiana Weather Service office which covers Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties has the advisory starting at 10am tomorrow, not 1pm.

    1. Tim says:

      oops, worded it wrong, north of Ottawa, Kent, and Ionia county the advisory starts at 4pm, and south of there it starts at 1pm. The Northern Indiana Weather Service office which covers Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties has the advisory starting at 10am tomorrow, not 1pm.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Right…I wrote that last night before the AFD came out and all I knew was we were going to get an Advisory for the afternoon.

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    For those of you that think we will getting an inch or two of snow and this will be not big deal will be in for a RUDE AWAKENING come Wednesday AM! Get ready 5 to 7 inches of SNOW is on the way! I also love the mid and long range models. Below average temps with plenty of SNOWSTORM chances!!!!!! WINTER IS REALLY ROCKING!!

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Nope, we’ll get a mojor dry slot that will kill our totals.

    2. Barry in Zeeland says:

      This storm will be as big of a fail as he is. He’s been barking about all the cold we are having, yet 3 days in a row now of near 40 or better with awesome sunshinie has left our area with bare spots to maybe an inch or 2 left. Can’t deny the suns higher angle any more. Just the facts.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        It is still February…snowstorms have happened where the snow has stuck into March. Explain the suns angle to the folks in the central U.S. getting buried in over a foot of snow. Sorry but your little explanation doesn’t hold up.

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          Have you been outside the past couple days?? If this was mid January, you wouldn’t have mass melting of snow and dry roads just from sunlight. You can’t possibly tell me you couldn’t feel the suns rays feeling stronger on a day like today. Yes, we could get snow in May, but how long do you think it’s going to stick around? Fact is the sun will soon be halfway up to the highest point in our sky, can’t deny that.

        2. SW Kent says:

          Actually Barry is correct and you are wrong.
          This time of year considering the sun angle, more sunshine, and longer days, it is very rare to be in a snowstorm pattern this late in the season.
          Yes, you can get a storm, but to say we are in a snowstorm pattern with lots of snow and cold is just wrong.
          IF we get into a snowstorm pattern, it is most often between Dec 15th and Feb 15th…..Friday is March 1st.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        FYI, the high temperatures the past 3 days have been 31 – 37 and 43. We’re predicting upper 30s tomorrow and mid 30s on Weds. The average high is now 37 going to 38 on 2/28. Grand Rapids is 2.7 degrees colder than average for February. March is going to start with below average maximums.

    3. Sparty says:

      Oh noes Snowmegeddon 1-2″ coming!!!!!!!!

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    After a nice,sunny late winter day with a high here in Walker of 43° with melting snow its now clear and still a mild 36° here. As for tomorrow??? There are still a lot of uncertainties. One is when will the snow fall? if its after sunset there will be a better chance of more snow accumulation then if its earlier in the day. Right now on the information that is available I would think we have a shot of around 3″ or so but like stated above lets wait and see how thing look tomorrow at this time. By then we should have a good idea one way or the other LOL
    SlimJim

  12. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Well well my little weather hobos, looks like you all r gettin ready for 2 to 4″. Should be reel nice for varmint huntin. Your ol aunty Edna is sick of fryin fish and is ready for some good ol varmint stew. Any who the indoor crops been doin reel good gettin ready for the second trim! Livin in the back woods!

  13. I think there will be more 4 or more amounts then less than 4 inches.

  14. Tom L says:

    Because I have to work the night shift, I always worry a bit about driving after the major rush hour has ended and the snow plows are less “active” out on the roads. Anyone want to offer a guess at how much of that precipitation will be covering the roads as snow around nine ten’oclock Tuesday night…?
    Hopefully, the roads here around town will still be more wet than snow covered at that time…
    (Fingers crossed!!!)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It depends on where you are. Temperatures will be pretty close to the freezing mark, so I would imagine with the residual (and new) salt on the roads that much of this will melt on contact on the heavily traveled roads. If it snows heavily for awhile, it could be a different story and snow will accumulate on the expressways. Snow may also start as rain, or be mixed with rain into Tues. evening. Precipitation amounts will be higher along I-94 than north of I-96. It won’t be the biggest event of the winter. I think you’ll get through all right.

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    By this time tomorrow evening you will know we in a full blown SNOWSTORM! Get ready people!

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Still not buying it. Not saying you are wrong, just not buying it yet.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Fair enough and we will both know in 24 hours!

        1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

          I actually hope your right. I’ve just seen too many fails in the past. It hurts when she breaks your heart.

  16. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Just the facts people. It is still winter and we are entrenched in a SNOWSTORM pattern with no change in sight!!!

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      wow. now you’re just being silly. no one is buying it anymore.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        WINTER IS ROCKIN and ROLLIN – we will see plenty of SNOW between now and the first official day of Spring! MARK IT DOWN!!

  17. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z GFS vs 18Z NAM shows a difference of 8-10″ for Chicago or 3-4″. Considering the Chicago and Detroit NWS seem to think most amounts will be in the 2-4″ range, I assume they are siding with the GFS. Both only give me 3-4″, so I’m not expecting much.

  18. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    The 6-12″ forecasted totals are back, but now they are only for eastern Michigan.

    http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/floater6_large.html

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Looks like I’m in the sweet spot, finally!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You may end up in the sweet spot, however I predict this area of heavier SNOW ends up closer to GR! We shall see in about 24 hours!

        1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          I don’t think anyone will approach 10″…my guess is a few 6-7″ amounts around SE Michigan.

        2. David(Ashley) says:

          Do you get your forecast everyday at 4:20? Get real dude your like the back of a shampoo bottle rinse lather repeat.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It is still looking good for us!!

  19. Bob B says:

    Bill,
    Tell me when to tap my maple trees. I want 28* for the low and 40* for the high for a week or two straight! I will take anything that isn’t consistently in the low 20′s.

  20. Dozer says:

    I wish it would just freeze for good or totally thaw. I have a leaky roof and everytime we get snow/thaw/snow/thaw/snow/thaw, my recliner gets wet which makes for unpleasant TV viewing. Who wants to watch the 11 O’clock news with a wet butt?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Might I suggest you get up on your roof and get it fixed! We will continue to have thaws, freeze, thaws, freeze, snow and rain for the next 4 to 6 weeks!!!

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