Tues. Snowstorm

March 3rd, 2013 at 11:45 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Click on the image to enlarge.  This is the Winter Weather Watch, which will likely be upgraded to an Advisory with the 3:30 PM forecast update.  It includes Van Buren, Cass and Berrien Counties in Michigan and much of N. Indiana and looks pretty good.  The new 12Z NAM  has the north edge of the snow from just north of S. Haven to Jackson, with nothing north of that line.  It gives only 0.6″ to S. Haven and 2.1″ for Kalamazoo.  The 4″ line would come up into Berrien Co., with the bulk of the snow in N. Indiana.   Here’s the latest NAM snowfall map  and the GFS snowfall map.  Here’s the larger NAM model snowfall map and the national watch/warning map.  This storm should be a significant snow producer for Chicago, S. Bend and Ft. Wayne.  Anyone traveling toward Chicago on I-94, or along the Indiana Toll Road or south of I-69 or I-75 will run into moderate to occasionally heavy snow, slick roads and low visibilities, tomorrow (heaviest in PM) and tomorrow night.  Chicago is 1o” shy on season snowfall and they’ll probably make up a good chunk of that with this storm.   12Z European model:  trace for G.R., Holland.  Approximately 4″ Benton Harbor to Sturgis, 6″ New Buffalo, 7″ S.Bend, 8″ Chicago, 3″ Milwaukee, 2-3″ Coldwater, 0.5″ Jackson, 2″ Kalamazoo (south side of town),   Join me at 5, 6 and 11 PM on WOOD for the latest.

During the day today check the  visible satellite loop (daytime) to see where the clouds are.    Also, there is no chance (0%…not even 0.01%) that March will be anywhere near as warm as last year.  Looks pretty average right now…with a lower than average tornado count for the U.S. for at least the first 3 weeks of March.  Tornadoes this spring may center in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys west into E. Arkansas and SE Missouri, moreso than in “tornado alley”, which runs from NW Texas up into Nebraska and S. Dakota.  Watch the news on WOOD for more.

186 Responses to “Tues. Snowstorm”

  1. Dan says:

    I’m still waiting for the later model runs. I am also hoping for some movement of this system to the north! We shall see. Looks to stay cold in the long range!
    If is going to stay cold, how about another snow storm or two?

    1. Bobby (Ada) says:

      Near 50 this weekend, with mid 50′s coming around the 20-22nd… Spring is on it’s way!!!

    2. fixxxer says:

      dan… no!

  2. Katie in Kentwood says:

    aw man!! NAM failed me with that 8-10 inches in GR lol. Oh well, bring on spring so I can start bike riding and jogging!

  3. DanielG says:

    Keep it SOUTH! I’m sick of playing trains in the snow. No fun anymore.

  4. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I think it’s safe to say the computer models still don’t know where the track of the low is going to go. I went from 0″ of snow, to 8″ of snow, down to 1″ of snow all in 24 hours.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Yesterday the 06Z run had Muskegon in the 10-12″ range….now, the snow is almost out of Michigan.

  5. kurt esseltine says:

    Bill i am a little confused why is st joesph county not in the watch if you look at the models they have 10″ of snow especially where i live in sturgis ….all county’s around in mich and indiana have watches but not ours and since i saw the modeles even more confused any logic on the nws ?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s a good question. They did put St. Joseph and Branch Counties into the Advisory when that came out.

  6. Nathan says:

    Keep it south and warm!

  7. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    GFS still hitning at alleast ADV snows into 94 area but I;m skeptical even on that with all the dry air that will be in place

  8. Brian says:

    Spring is around the corner,no more snow.

    1. Blue Moon says:

      LIKE

  9. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    UK model is slightly further north with 12Z run with some decent snow in the I94 corridor. GEM still keeps most of it south of the stateline. Guess I’ll have to wait & see what the next Euro, NAM, & GFS runs look like. This is like following a triple overtime basketball game or something, with the way these models keep flip flopping back & forth with each passing run.

  10. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Tom Skilling’s RPM model still taking 1-4 inches up close to I96 with 6-10 down here south of I94. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151476426031760&set=a.10150114911481760.319343.87625716759&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf

  11. fixxxer says:

    little early to call this a snow storm bill. im also liking the warmer temps i see coming. go back and hibernate winter nuts!

  12. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Let’s review the facts:

    1. We are now entrenched in a NO SNOW & WARMING PATTERN and will be for WEEKS TO COME!
    2. Winter is over.
    3. Meteorological Spring started on March 1.
    4. The coming weekend will be GREAT for grilling brats and disc golf.
    5. Thunderstorms and WARM weather ROCKS!
    6. Comet PAN-STARRS will be visible here in the northern hemisphere in just 8 DAYS!

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      How is this a no snow & warming pattern? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        There will be naysayers and haters in every crowd. That’s just the way it is.

    2. michigan won says:

      Well said Barry! I’m still waiting though for INDY and Rocky to chime in. BIG STORM!! BLIZZARD!!! MANY MORE TO COME!! 7 MORE WEEKS!!! Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah! Where are you guys????

      1. Blue Moon says:

        ToO MaNy SpRiTeS

    3. Undy says:

      Lol. That’s great. Add one more, the JOKE model shows a thunderstorm the second week of June. Get used to it.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Very well put. Yes, that must be added for #7.

      2. Jack says:

        Is that the Model Named after U…. Undy ? ;-)

        1. Undy says:

          No it’s a combo of the ever reliant RDB, IWS and JEM

        2. Jack says:

          Oh, Thanks for the Clarification UNDY … And Thanks for The Compliment , RELIANT, Those 3 Models Have Been Darn Near Perfect… Thanks Again! Stay Tuned and Cued, and Get Ready To ROCK N ROLL, Your UNDIES off !!! Lol… ;-)

  13. DF (SE Mich) says:

    The 12Z GFS has the relative cold coming back next week after the warm up this weekend/ early next week.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Keeps switching back and forth in typical March fashion. Just depends what timeframe you’re looking at with the big swings coming up.

        http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585/20130304000000

        WXYZ still has a 50 for next Tuesday. The above link says 54 for Tuesday and then 58 on March 16th before a three-day cooler swing.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          This is most unreliable weather site that I have ever seen! The high temp predictions are always to high!! This site must be run by someone that is pushing global warming!!!!

        2. Just wait until someone gets the bright idea to have a 45 day forecast!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          FYI – last Tuesday, my forecast high and low for today (Monday the 4th) was 33/12. Last Weds., my forecast high/low for today was 33/10. Last Thurs., my forecast high/low for today was 33/10. Last Fri., my forecast high/low for today was 33/10. Last Sat., my forecast high/low for today was 33/10. Last Sunday (yesterday) my forecast high/low for today was 33/10. On all of those days I wrote down partly to mostly sunny.

          The actual high in G.R. today was 33 and the actual low temp. for G.R. was 11.

  14. Mike Geukes says:

    87 right now in Texas

  15. Dan says:

    I heard cooler for the middle of March as well. We also have a one or more decent shots at snow before its all said and done! Wouldn’t it be pretty cool to have a snowstorm in early April?

    1. michigan won says:

      NO!

    2. GB (Hudsonville) says:

      No a snow storm would not be cool for early April. Who would ever think that? It would only be annoying, there wouldn’t be enough snow to do any winter activities in and it would be too warm for the snow to stick around. All it would be is annoying for people to drive in or try to start their spring yard work. The fact is that any snow moving forward is just a hassle, winter sport time is over for our area, new snow won’t last very long. So let’s get focused on our next season and enjoy all the great spring time activities. Don’t worry winter snow nuts I bet winter will come back in 8 or 9 months.
      Oh and it looks good for this storm to go completely south of us and that’s a good thing because 40+ temps over the next few days will get rid of this last 3 inches of snow pack we are stuck with.
      Here is to seeing grass again by Thursday!

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It will be a lot colder by mid March. Well below average temperatures are on the way!!!

  16. Jack says:

    Beautiful Sunshine and Beautiful Blue sky…..and Enjoying Detroit Tiger PRE season Baseball on the Tube ! Yeah I Got SPRING FEVER !!!!!! ;-)

  17. Nathan says:

    Best day ever! I’ll be outdoors all evening :) unfortunately, colder temperatures are on the way for NEXT week, but this week looks awesome! I just finished my new story about weather, it’s 20 pages! Plus I completed a kids story that is 10 pages :) I should be a weather reporter some day… Cough

    1. Nathan says:

      :) :) :) :) :) :) 48% sunshine for March looks likely! Too bad the time change next week ruins the morning… But we should make up the lost time in about three weeks or less

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        post a link to your story and essay I’m sure a few of us would be interested in a good read

        1. Nathan says:

          Sure Ill figure out a way to add it soon

  18. Dan says:

    Yes, Nathan! I would like to read your story about the weather. Please post the link!

    1. 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin says:

      The Chester Township tornado siren is in my yard. Needless to say, I was a bit surprised with the season-opening test this past Friday at noon. Wasn’t expecting it, but it was music to the ears of a warm-weather-lover!

      Oh hell yeah!

    2. Cort S. says:

      Hmmm, probably one of the largest “operational” tornado warnings ever issued:
      http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2013-O-NEW-KMKX-TO-W-0002/USCOMP-N0Q-201303041625

      The problem was this code in the tornado warning text:

      /O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0002.130304T1628Z-130304T1645Z/

      The first letter should have been a T and not an O.

      At least the text of the tornado warning stated it was a test:

      BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
      TORNADO WARNING
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
      1028 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

      * TEST TORNADO WARNING FOR…ALL OF WISCONSIN…

      * UNTIL 1045 AM CST

      * AT 1008 AM CST…NO SEVERE WEATHER WAS OCCURING OR EXPECTED. THIS IS ONLY A DRILL. THIS DRILL IS PART OF TORNADO AWARENESS WEEK. TREAT THIS AS IF IT WERE A REAL EMERGENCY AND PRACTICE YOUR EMERGENCY PLANS.

      * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…ALL OF WISCONSIN.

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. PLEASE PRACTICE YOUR TORNADO PREPAREDNESS PLANS.

      &&

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        ROFLMAO!!!!!!!! For something to cover THAT size area – what would it be? An F-97 or so?????? “Uh – Wisconsin?? Kiss your butt goodbye!”

      2. Nathan says:

        Wow Cort, thats pretty crazy!

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Here are the real facts – not the warm weather nut fantasy land propaganda!

    1. It is still WINTER!
    2. I love the CPC 6 to 14 day outlook. COLD and SNOWYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    3. I will be skiing this weekend!
    4. I will be snowmobiling next weekend!
    5. A SNOWSTORM is on the way for next week! Maybe two SNOWSTORMS!!!
    6. March will end up with well below average temperatures!
    7. The first two weeks of April will have below average temperatures! Possible SNOW!!!
    8. ROCK n ROLL will never die baby!! Get used to it!!!!

    1. GB (Hudsonville) says:

      Alright kid we get it you like cold and snow but school can’t be canceled every day.

    2. michigan won says:

      Sure Rocky.

  20. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    The CPC has a large area of below average temps and above average precipitation so with that there is a chance that we could still see several periods of snow in the next two weeks. Of course it could be just a cold rain or even some FR as well but the chance is still there.
    37° here now with lots sunshine.
    SlimJim

  21. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Let me congratulate the GR NWS for their correct predictions relating to this Alberta clipper. They stuck to their guns and nailed it, while the RDB model was WRONG! This raises the NWS forecast accuracy up to 29.5% and lowers the RDB accuracy percentage down to 71.7%!!!

    1. Jack says:

      And the JEM Model is at….. 1,000 %…. Thank-You… Stay Cued ! ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Lets hope it stays that way – SNOWSTORM next week! Bring it on and keep the COLD and SNOW rolling!!!

        1. Jack says:

          No Problem..Rocky…. Stay Cued! ;-)

        2. michigan won says:

          Like this week Rocky? You know, the one you gauranteed for tomorrow?

        3. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

          I am sure next weeks storm will go “south” on us. I am loosing all hope.

  22. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    I have plans to grill some steaks and shrimp this weekend. Maybe most of the snow will be melted off my back deck with-in the next couple of days. Another snow storm has gone “south” on us. Did anyone see the big snow storm that Japan got? Looks like the other side of the world got our snow this winter.

  23. Redd_Leader (Hamilton) says:

    Does anybody see those model runs maybe pushing the system back North? Or have we completely given up hope?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      There is always a chance, however currently the chances are slim!

  24. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GREAT NEWS – the long range models show much below average temperatures with plenty of SNOW chances for West MI! Keep the COLD and SNOW coming!!!!!!!!

  25. INDY says:

    INDY is on vaction 2 many fizzers on Bills blog!!! Stay cued !!!!! INDYY…

  26. arcturus says:

    Well, Rocky was wrong. Again. But we know this.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Oh boy fixxxer is back again. Go back under your rock fixxxer! Nice try!

      1. arcturus says:

        Just like your predictions you are wrong again, I have no clue who this fixxer dude is.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          That is really funny!

  27. Brian says:

    Rocky,you on drugs,sure sounds like it,get rid of this cold crap,SPRING is coming!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Keep the COLD and SNOW rolling for at least 4 more weeks!!! We have at least two more SNOWSTORMS in the works yet this month! I love it!!

  28. Jack says:

    Well, Well….and…DITTY WAH Ditty…… CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyWTLfsXDQg. ;-)

  29. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    GFS & NAM still hangin’ on to 6-8 inches for me. Less than 4″ about 25 miles north of here, & maybe up to a foot about 25 miles south. Hopin’ this puppy inches north just a lil’ further!!

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      Lookin’ like we’ll get just enough in my neck of the woods to make the roads NO FUN. I would rather have it all or nothing, in this case…Nothing. I am ready for spring.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Unfortunately this storm is still trending to the South. You will be lucky if you see more than 2 or 3 inches and GR will be seeing exactly ZERO!

      1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Yeah, now the 00Z NAM coming out isn’t even printing out nearly as much water equivalent precip with this. Even south of here, it had been showing up to 1.00 inch…. now it’s more like .50 or so. I’m between .25 & .50. Barring a miracle now, it looks like just advisory level snowfall for here, maybe low end warning south of here in Indiana.

        1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

          Well, thats good news for me.

  30. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Of course it looks like the east coast is about to get hit with another mega-bomb blizzard. Go figure. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

  31. Nathan says:

    Bill, when I visit Ill give you the weather paper :)

    1. Nathan says:

      Cant wait to show you the paper! Its about our journey into a supercell T-Storm!!

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      Bubble my ***. The last month put that silly term to rest.

  32. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    While the NAM is further south, the GEM-REG module is further north now. HAAA!!!!! http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en

  33. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I figured this system wasn’t a strong one, haven’t been aching all that bad and my flock have been carrying on calmly as if no care or worry in the world, accept to be twitter patted. Duck/goose eggs anyone??? They’ve been busy!

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