Euro. backing off the snowstorm

March 6th, 2013 at 4:34 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

A quick update.  First the earlier post from last night:    The European model has the potential (and it’s only a potential from one model) snow event on Monday.  First it has 0.42″ of rain Sat. night thru Sunday midday.  Then, on Monday, it has rain fairly quickly changing to snow (this would be similar to the concrete-like snow we got Feb. 26-7).  With 850 mb temps. of -3 and falling, it would be mostly snow and it prints out a bunch of precipitation (0.90″ for G.R.).  The GFS is warmer with 0.33″ of rain Sat. night/Sun. and then 0.59″ of mainly rain (less than an inch snow) on Monday.  Both models have a chilly day to follow on Tue. with temperatures 10 degrees below average in the low 30s.  The GRR NWS discussion from this early morning is right on and says:  “THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW… HANGING UP THE SFC FRONT AND SHOWING THE SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH LWR MI. MEANWHILE THE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM IND TO TOL AND IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECENT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT FOR OUR AREA ON MONDAY.”   The FIM model has the low coming up over S. Lower Michigan with rain changing to maybe an inch or two of snow.  The Canadian has a low up over Alpena and the UKMET has a weaker low over Lake Erie.  Check in around 2:30 PM and I’ll try to post something about the new European.  We could be in for a rocky Monday.

Weds. PM Update:  Euro. has a good soaking for us, just shy of an inch -  now almost all of it is rain, with the heaviest rain to the southeast of G.R. and a changeover to snow at the end of the event.  The Canadian would also have almost all rain.  The track of the low still varies widely on the models.  That’s all for now.  I’ll write more later this evening.

155 Responses to “Euro. backing off the snowstorm”

  1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    A Rocky Monday?

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Yo, Adrian.

    2. Yup (Grandville) says:

      EL OH EL

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      A little snow humor there…if you get my drift.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        *rimshot*

      2. Yup (Grandville) says:

        *Snort* Heheh.

  2. Dan says:

    Rocky that was your cue. A Rocky Monday! Winter is not over JUST yet!
    We still have a couple weeks to go with it!! Winter is going to save ts best for last!!! BRING ON THE SNOW!!!

  3. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Bill posting subliminal messages to Rocky. Cool. What is next…..”we are in for a fixxer of a heat wave.” I’m going to record Bill’s next weather segment and play it backwards.

  4. Dan says:

    Jim: That is really funny!! Let me know if you receive a message from playing Bill’s weather segment backwards!! Takes me back, thinking of all that with vinyl records!

      1. Jack says:

        LOL, Bill I remember That ! I also remember a Poem from MAD Magazine That Said. Ringo , Paul, George, and John. Played a Trick , and put us on. Hinted Paul, was Dead as Nails ! And Rocketed Their RECORD SALES !!

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Bill is really trying to appease the winter nuts who have seemed to go into hibernation. Sometimes, it feels like Groundhog Day on the blog with all these long-term model postings that never pan out.

    Another bright sunny morning here! This week has been fantastic, and this weekend looks perfect too.

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Have you seen the lack of activity on this blog in the summer when no storms are present? Yeah, it goes both ways. And I can tell you, Indy will be just as crazy about thunderstorms as he is about snow ;)

  6. Dan says:

    Travis: Bill has been hitting the mark with his forecasts. Can you do better? If you can, I would like to see you post a couple of predictions! You constantly ask others for a prediction but you never make one. Why is that? Please, don’t hid behind the CPC!!
    You and your warm weather bias!
    Winter is not over. We are in March and we can still get a couple of decent snows. Don’t forget that!!!

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      I said this week has been fantastic and it’s been colder than average. No bias here, winter nuts. I enjoy all Michigan seasons. Every spring you guys seem to get mad.

      I said the long-term models alluded to here (not Bill’s forecasts) have been awful. Just last week, there was a thread where the GFS showed an arctic blast coming that we won’t get. A week before that the models showed the defining snowstorm of 2013 that didn’t transpire. A week before that the GFS was showing another arctic blast and we ended up being in the 30′s and 40′s.

      1. Dan says:

        Not mad, just wondering why you feel like you need to correct Bill.
        Yet, you never make a forecast. I was just questioning that.
        Most of your posts you seem to always want to correct.
        Are you making any forecasts? I haven’t seen one that you have made.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          We’re having a blogger snowfall prediction thread next year, so get ready! Otherwise, no, not a lot of people make predictions on here except for Rocky and Indy lol

          Working in finance, I guess my education has trained me to see how models and forecasts pan out, so we better know what to follow in the future.

        2. INDY says:

          Travis has nothing better to do but tell us about our weather miles and miles away!! We thank him!!! INDYY..

        3. michigan won says:

          Way to chime in INDYY. Nothing says critical thinking and well educated thoughts like the ones you post. Seriously?

        4. INDY says:

          Put up or shut Michigan won show your facebook on Bills blog page then u can talk to thee INDYY… Seriously? lol!

        5. michigan won says:

          Pretty sure knowbody needs your permission to post on the blog INDYY. Next…

        6. INDY says:

          F A K E……enjoy!!!! INDYY..

        7. Rumrunner says:

          LOL. You have no credibility Indy. None.

        8. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          You can only post on here if you agree with a select few who have deemed themselves keepers of the blog. Rock on. Get used to it etc. ect…..

        9. Blue Moon says:

          chill undy

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          I’m the one that writes the threads (little articles), but anyone can post a comment. I have more fingers on my right hand than the number of people we’ve deleted.

      2. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        My guess is the purpose of the blog, or any blog, is to facilitate discussion. What fun would the blog be if we didn’t have to comment, argue, disect, etc. the computer model forecasts? Does Bill want a blog about a partly cloudy day in March…which would probably have about 10 comments…or would he rather have a blog talking about a massive arctic outbreak or warm up which will get the crazies going about global warming, cooling, or everthing in betwee? It’s media.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          haha this is true! Nothing seems to do the trick like a good snowstorm potential.

        2. Dan says:

          Good point, Jim S. I much prefer a lively and perhaps heated discussion about the weather. I’ll admit, I can come on a bit strong and maybe, overly critical.
          No problem, Travis! I get where you are coming from!!
          The models have been HORRIBLE! There has been no consistency and certainly not a lot of accuracy.

        3. Blue Moon says:

          The models have actually been pretty good say 2 days out. euro nailed the latest non storm about 3-5 days out, gfs got it right something like 2 days out.

  7. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    We need to make this coming Monday, “National Rocky Day”. This means no school, no mail, everything closed down, for this national holiday. Rocky I enjoy your post…really.

  8. Nathan says:

    I’m signing up for class’s. Would you recommend AP Chem and AP Bio for meteorology?

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      If you school offers any kind of Advanced math take those classes

    2. Cort S. says:

      Hi Nathan. Unless you want to do something for a career that involves biology and how it is affected by weather, you don’t need to take Bio classes for a meteorology degree. In my meteorology degree program at CMU, I only had to take one class of chemistry and its associated chem lab course. Chemistry is only a small part of meteorology (unless you want to be an Atmospheric Chemist, but there aren’t too many of those that I know of).

      If you have other choices besides AP Chem or AP Bio, I would recommend taking a math course, preferably one that leads you into Calculus. So, something like Pre-Calc or AP Calculus would be immensely helpful, because you need to go all the way up to Calc 3 (3-dimensional calculus) and Differential Equations (which is kind of like a Calc 4) in order to get a meteorology degree. Alternatively, you could do AP Statistics if you wish. That might be able to knock out the one Statistics course requirement that your degree may have, but you’ll have to check. But certainly, if you take AP Calculus, you will be able to get college credit for Calc 1… a time-saver and money-saver, and such a vital step toward your degree.

      Understanding how the atmosphere behaves is basically a branch of Physics, so taking a Physics course in high school might also be helpful, as you will develop skills needed to be able to mathematically diagnose the world in which you live. That, and you do have to take a couple Physics courses in college to get a meteorology degree.

      If your schedule is not already full, I would also recommend that you look into a computer programming course. Something like C, Java, Perl, Python, etc. The language doesn’t necessarily matter; the most important thing that these classes teach you is how to think logically like a computer does, and problem-solving skills. You’ll need to have programming skills to be able to dig into how computer models of the atmosphere work, and ultimately, it seems like more and more jobs in the world need good computer programmers (this is true for lots of careers other than meteorology).

      So, if I may recap. If you want to get a meteorology degree in college (good for you!), the most important classes you can take in high school to prepare yourself are: Calculus, Physics, Computer Programming, and Statistics. And to a lesser extent, Chemistry.

      1. KF (SE of Lowell) says:

        Cort…I so enjoy the information that you post. My son is in the 7th grade and hopes to be a meteorologist also. Thanks for the list of important classes. It will come in handy when my son moves on to high school in a few years.

        1. Jack says:

          + 1… Keep up the Great comments CORT !!! U dah MAN !!!! ;-)

        2. Nathan says:

          Thx Cort for the information!

        3. Cort S. says:

          That’s good to hear, KF! Keep encouraging him to pursue excellence in math and science. If you or he would like to learn more about weather right now, there is a terrific website called JetStream from the NWS that explains just about any weather topic that you can imagine: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/

          The list of topics and sub-topics on the left side of that page is chock full of great information and lots of helpful illustrations. I like it a lot.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        I know your reply was for Nathan’s benefit – but that was pretty interesting!

  9. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

    Let’s hope this next system is a rain only event. Loved the snow but ready for a warm up.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Yes! mid-30′s and heavy RAIN …doesn’t get much better than that!;)

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Seems all models are on board with two storms..first is definitely rain and temps creeping to near 50 perhaps. The second storm will either be a cold rain, with a changeover to some light snow, or more snow than rain. 06Z GFS still says more rain than snow. Time will tell.

        1. RJ says:

          lets hope its rain… no need for the snow to linger on any longer.

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Speak for yourself RJ..wait i guess you already DID! J/K….you’ll have your bloody 8 months of warmth- patience!

  10. Irish coffee says:

    My guess is that 12z Euro will come in warmer & farther n/w(READ:more reain than snow ;(…UNFORTUNATELY!!

  11. Irish coffee says:

    “reain”? how about “rain” instead!… darn Irish keyboards

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      At least it’s not a Polish keyboard.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Polish keyboard?….that would be my wife’s! sheeesh, i used to think all her relatives were pro downhill skiers– there’s the DobkowSKI’S..GrabowSKI’S,etc…but man oh MAN can they COOK!!!My uncle Seamus (Moriarty)would put baked beans on toast and call it a meal…thankfully me father did NOT do any of the cooking– & my mom’s French- OUI!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Haha! Speaking of cooking, I’ve had country-style bbq ribs in the slow cooker since 8 a.m., can’t wait. I think the smell of them is actually starting to stick to my ribs.

        2. Irish coffee says:

          YUM! Hope you enjoyed them! ;)

  12. INDY says:

    Again snow piles in May get ready for it!! Not even close to last years spring warm…..BRING ON A NOTHER SNOW STORM!! INDYY…

    1. Irish coffee says:

      cue: KID ‘ROCK’-YOU LIKE A HURRICANE SCORPIONS SNOW-STLYE…& while Jack’s at it- might as well CUE a lil’ TED NUGENT just for BDBC!!! (as i’m holding a BOW(tie) and ARROW(shirt) in one hand ; KING JAMES in the OTHER!!! ROCK AND SOUL BRO’S!!! LET IT SNOW!!!

      1. INDY says:

        lololololo going to see Ted in May can’t wait!!! INDYY…

      2. Jack says:

        Please, Don’t Use my Name or Cues, In Vain… Thank- You ! Carry on My wayward Son….. Lol….. Stay Cued !! ;-)

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Seen some snow in the woods and snow piles in town in Alpena in the early 1960′s
      SlimJim

    3. Bruno (Northview H.S.) says:

      Indy… We are in Grand Junction and heading to Denver tomorrow to stay with my daughter and son in law. Talked to her yesterday and they are predicting in feet for Denver for Saturday. We have been soooo lucky this trip so far. We were ahead of all the storms you got by one day (from Mi. to Az.)and have had full sun everyday Since Feb. 22. (except when we were at the Phoenix Race, it was actually cloudy. Perfect Raceday weather :) ).

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its cloudy and 36° here in Walker. One has to wonder how much faith to put into any long range guess and while its true they are fun to look at and talk about the fact remains too many people get too wound up over ever detail in a long range guess. On type of precipitation that has been left out in the early next week scheme of events that I will add is a ice storm. While the set up may not look right one has to add that to a possibility just to make the possibilities complete. I know it was stated that one reason to toss up a possible snow storm event into a blog is to stir up a discussion and for now we will consider that to be the case. My take??? To early to say and as always time will tell. As to who will be right?? That is hard to say the battery in my watch has died but even that watch is right twice a day.
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      As always, the most level-headed advice on here, Slim!

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Slim Jim also has a database larger than the NWS. The guy could pick out a day from the last 100 years and tell you what the weather conditions were that day.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          That’s why I call him the stats man!

      2. michigan won says:

        +1

  14. Irish coffee says:

    INDY: cue last weekend in MAY & the following “SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT” FROM NWS KIND — “Indy 500 *postponed due to leftover banks(snow) in turns 3 and 4…Danica shovels as Big Daddy piles GO by bye” updtate & PICS tomorrow..;)

    1. INDY says:

      Kiss thee snow not thee bricks this year at INDY!!! INDDYY..

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      There will not be any snow on the ground in the end of May down in Indy……that said there is an old weather saying “cold spring,hot summer”
      SlimJim

      1. INDY says:

        And snow piles in May!!! INDYY…

        1. Irish coffee says:

          BRING IT!!!…CINCO DE MAYO BLIZZARDO “VILLENIEVO”!!– w/ piles not melting (on NORTH facing slopes) until Memorial Day!! <D. Patrick can make snow angels IMBY *ANY day- *that my wife is working that is!!

  15. Irish coffee says:

    NASCAR….BIBLES …GUNS [N'ROSES] = TAILGATE party at BDBC’s PLACE it is then!!B.Y.O.Bible, SPrites,turntable, V-8-tracks,ETC ;)

  16. INDY says:

    Irish I cant wait to put a coffe with a face at Bills hot luck this summer u better come!! HOT luck Andy SUNNY DAYS aheadd please with BILLS best SOME Of the REST only if WE say HO get Ready NOW….INDYY..

    1. Irish coffee says:

      OH….i’ll be there….YOU schedule a date and time- i’ll schedule an Iron Chef dish to pass! PEACE

  17. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS…instead of taking a low through upper Michigan, now takes a low well south…no phasing, no snow. Rain this weekend a sure bet though.

  18. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Hey rocky… I believe that last sentence was for you. ;)

    1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      Oh… A bunch of people already mentioned that. Haha… Doesn’t change the fact though. I really hope it is mostly a rain event because I would rather not have to shovel concrete-like snow… Ain’t nobody got time for that!

  19. fixxxer says:

    BRING ON spring bill!

  20. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Any chance at 50 this weekend…with a little sun?

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Will be close for some. My forecast this morning was 49, 48 for Sun/Mon. Losing some sunshine here now but still partly cloudy and another nice day! My car read 40 degrees in the sun at lunch.

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Wunderground is saying 50 for Caledonia on Saturday and 52 for Sunday… That’s 10 degrees warmer than their forecast said this morning. Looks like things are bouncing all over the place with weekend predictions!

      The next two days are supposed to be moderately nice, though (low-to-mid 40s with sun), so I’ll take what I can get! :)

    3. Brian(Grandville) says:

      With all the new snow pack off to the s.w., not to sure.

  21. INDY says:

    Hey Bill still have about 5 inches of snow on thee ground and over 2 feet in piles out at thee YARDofBRICKS …JUST FACTS NO CREDIBILITY ABOUT IT!! INDYY..

  22. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    I don’t think the European model is showing much snow now. Doesn’t look as cold..but does show some precip. Someone with more knowledge could probably elaborate.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      as i suspected this am…..euro was out to lunch! low track is further n/w..850′s much warmer …low is weaker,etc.Expect a pretty good soaking- but it WON’T be a warm rain…carry on

  23. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Let’s pause, and once again review the FACTS!

    1. Meteorological winter is OVER and it is now SPRING!!
    2. We are in a NO SNOW & WARMING PATTERN. GET USED TO IT.
    3. I just finished washing and waxing my car, and now I will do the van and other 2 cars.
    4. The grill is coming out Friday for brats on Saturday.
    5. March will end on the day before April.
    6. The BFE (yes those are my actual initials) model shows LOTS of rain in the coming 3 to 4 weeks.
    7. The BFE model is also showing a major THUNDERSTORM outbreak the first week of May.
    8. I refuse to annoy everyone and make a new post every three minutes, so this is my last facts review.
    9. Metal killed Rock & Roll years ago. Again, GET USED TO IT!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      LOL Perfect.

    2. Irish coffee says:

      Barry: Rock w/ a side of METAL is just fine! How can you have your pudding if you don’t eat your meat? ;)

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        ROFL!!!! I was just going to mention that the Brit Floyd concert last night was a packed house!! Must be some rock lovers out there yet!!!

  24. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    5. March will end on the day before April. LOL

  25. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    And just like that….winter (at least the snowy part of it) is over.

  26. Dave (Jenison) says:

    I have a full tank of gas in my snowblower and I would perfer not to have to syphon that tank. Need more snow soon!!

  27. Nathan says:

    GFS 5 days out= Trash when will a new model technology come out? It seems like the government would favor it to protect lives.

    1. Cort S. says:

      A model is a very, very, very long computer program which is full of thousands of physics and math equations which represent everything about how the real atmosphere behaves. They ingest all the weather observations from around the world to come up with a pretty close estimate of what the current state of the atmosphere is around the world. Then they run trillions of calculations of those physics equations to come up with 3, 6, 9, 12, etc. hour forecasts of what the future state of the atmosphere will be, based on the current state of the atmosphere that it started with.

      They are limited by 3 main things.

      1. Our current conceptual understanding of how the atmosphere works, and the mathematical equations which describe or represent those processes.

      2. Limitations of available computing power. This is a big challenge but keeps improving as our technology gets better. Because there isn’t enough computing power in the world to be able to model small-scale processes in the atmosphere (think the size of an individual thunderstorm or smaller) across the entire globe, we have to design global models which mostly focus on the big-scale processes like the jet stream and low-pressure systems, and then “fake it” when it comes to representing small-scale processes like a thunderstorm that might arise out of the right atmospheric setup. We could build models that can handle both big and small processes around the entire world, but the time it would take to compute a 24 hour forecast would be much longer than 24 hours.

      3. Availability and quality of current observations. Our observations of the current state of the atmosphere, which come from ground weather stations, weather balloons, radars, airplanes, buoys, and satellites, cannot possibly tell you the exact weather conditions on every single point on the planet. So we can only come up with a close, but inexact, guess of what the state of the whole atmosphere is currently like. Those small errors in estimating what the current atmosphere is really like, when fed in the models, will make the errors grow larger and larger as you forecaster longer and longer into the future. It’s the “garbage in, garbage out” philosophy. So the better and more abundant our weather observations are, and the better a model is at coming up with a current representation of the real atmosphere (“initializing”), the better our forecasts can be.

      The ECMWF (European) model is currently better than our American models (e.g. the NAM and GFS), there’s no denying that. They took a different business approach to develop their model. Their model is proprietary, and you need to pay for it. The American models are taxpayer funded, so their output is free for everybody. The Europeans spent a lot of work developing ways to “initialize” the model in the best way possible (item #3 in the list that I just gave), and that seems to be why their model usually outperforms all other models. Yes, the American people should be upset that we are falling behind in modeling the atmosphere, especially when our country is the most vulnerable to all different sorts of weather hazards. They should tell their leaders to adequately fund short-medium range weather models. But don’t worry, even though the GFS is not as good as the ECMWF, it is still continually being improved right now. Just not as fast as we would want it to be, for lack of $$$ and allocation of computing resources.

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        We have our priorities set wrong with the computers we allocate, that’s for sure…. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Very interesting. If you explained the issue and took a poll, you can bet that over 80% of the public would rather see the better computers used for daily operational forecasting (of tornadoes, hurricanes and blizzards that affect everyone) rather than giving the best computers to climate modelers. However, the majority of people are not informed and the I would imagine that most of the politicians are too. So, how does it get like this? There is too much money to be had. Note that the Hurricane Sandy relief bill was 60 BILLION dollars. It had money allocated for fish hatcheries in Alaska! 60 Billion is more than the entire budget for the state of New Jersey! You can hide all kinds of pork and payouts in a 60-billion dollar bill. The news media won’t dig into this…they want to know why Justin Bieber was booed, or they’re busy whining about the loss of White House Tours because of the sequestration (psst…the tours are done by VOLUNTEERS!!).

          This country spends 3.7 TRILLION dollars every year. Just in our area…between the 151 million dollars wasted at LG CHEM to the Federal grant of $147,138 to build a magic museum in Marshall, Mich. to promote the “history of magic entertainment.” Somewhere, we can find the money to buy a better computer to run the GFS model.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Yup: I remember reading that, and I wanted to post it at the end, but I couldn’t easily find it back. Thanks for posting it. Enlightening blog post, and the comments at the bottom of that page aren’t all that terrible either.

      2. Nathan says:

        Wow, thanks court. Hopefully we see some improvements within the next ten years!

      3. Blue Moon says:

        thanks Cort, a lot of people expect miracles out of computers and software without understanding the limitations.
        I have heard the euro is doing better b/c they are feeding it more discreet data.
        I dont know the exact figures but as an example, say the gfs samples the atmosphere every 100 square Km and the euro every 10 sqr Km. More data, better result

        1. Cort S. says:

          Hmmm, you might also be right about that, but I am not too familiar about the spectral/grid resolutions of the GFS and Euro. All models have the challenge of assimilating tons of observed data from all sorts of different points around the planet, and then massaging that data (and running quality control checks) to turn it into a nice gridded data field or wave spectrum which the model can then run calculations on. Really quite a mind-boggling process. You have tons of weather data coming in from all different heights above sea level and from times that are almost never equal exactly to 12:00 or 00:00 UTC. And somehow they need to tweak and interpolate those data points to make a uniform picture of the globe for 12:00 or 00:00, for the horizontal grid points and vertical levels that exist within the model. I’m glad that there are people out there much smarter than me who can develop these techniques.

      4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        You really think with the budget cuts and proposed budget cuts that there will be MORE taxpayer money for any government $$$$$ I don’t think so. I know you say the private sector should (will) take over!!! To that I have only have to say (Accuweather) need I say more????
        SlimJim

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Wonder what the new computer would cost. We wasted 151 million federal dollars on LG CHEM in Holland: http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle

  28. As for next week, lets wait until Friday or Saturday and then we can right off or jump on the storm idea, until then it’s just the models playing games.

    1. Jack says:

      The Models Playing Games, Just Like Pepole Do, SPIN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAGyENr3_44. ;-)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Mark you are the man!!

  29. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    TMW’s Blog Headline. EURO BACK ON FOR SNOWSTORM
    To much jumping ship and counting our chickens before they hatch on this blog

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON bnoppe!!!

  30. INDY says:

    Just keep drinking theee sprites..Last year it was warm thee YARDofBRICKS was about to open what a year makes we will be outside with snow piles drinking sprites this year can’t wait!! ..INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      *LIKE*…….. CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i5k4I1AOEI. Enjoy….YARDof Bricks !!!! ;-)

  31. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    SNOWSTORM or NO SNOWSTORM? A ROCKY Monday or not? Could it be that winter is over and we will not see anymore snowstorms? Could it be that the cold is retreating and March may end up with some nice weather and very little snow?

    NOOOOOO! Here are the facts:
    1. We will be having a “ROCKY” March!
    2. The 6 to 14 day CPC shows below average temperatures!
    3. We will have at least two more SNOWSTORMS this season!
    4. The warm weather nuts are living in fantasy land!
    5. Out with heavy metal and in with ROCK n ROLL!
    6. The COLD and SNOW is still rolling! Get used to it baby!!!

    1. Nathan says:

      Rocky, below average could mean temps in the 35-40 range! Winter is basically over, with maybe a snowstorm or a couple days of snow showers… Now its time for the worst part of the year, cold rain!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Nathan at least you say that we may still actually see a SNOWSTORM! Some of the warm weather nuts act like winter is over! They are in for a rude awakening and I can hardly wait!!! Keep the COLD and SNOW coming!!

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          I will never say winter like weather can not happen until mid May. As I have seen snow in both April and seen some snow in May.
          SlimJim

    2. Blue Moon says:

      my 2 cents. we will see snow, no snowstorms. my guess is 2 inches at most from any one event

      1. Jack says:

        Blue Moon: sorry couldn’t Resist this Cue 4 You…. Enjoy, and Peace. ;-) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohIqi35LiQ.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Next week we will be seeing a MAJOR SNOWSTORM! Get ready!

        1. Jerry says:

          That’s what you said for this week’s storm, which missed most of Michigan. Models are already backing off snow forecasts for next week’s storm. This weekend is looking mild and rainy.

          Poor Rocky is in denial.

  32. Tim from Zeeland says:

    It’s March people. The pattern changed over a month ago and now we are in for more in the lines of normal weather. Last March was not normal. So we will see some snow yet and we will see rain, and yes we will see it warm up and little and the snow we do get will not be around as long. I’m all for a good winter storm still, but thankful for the rain or snow we get. The lakes need it.

  33. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The Boyne Mt ski trails should be great this Saturday! We will be seeing a SNOWSTORM next week. Have you checked the JEM model lately? Get ready Grand Rapids!!

    1. Jack says:

      JEM MODEL….Still Showing a DECENT SNOW STORM…. Week of 3/ 11/13……. Stay CUED !!! 4 further Updates !!! ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I am ready and it could be big March SNOWSTROM next week! Stay tuned people! You are about to witness some more model mayhem that ends up with GR getting hammered with SNOW!!!!!

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      There is enough snow up in norther Michigan that there could still be ski trails open on Easter this year!!!
      SlimJim

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I like it and I also plan to be snowmobiling into April this year! I may need to drive up the UP, however that is my current plan. Skiing and snowmobiling right into April. Now that is what a call a GREAT WINTER!

        1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

          I’m glad I don’t have to pull my waverunners or bass boat 7 hours north to enjoy them.

  34. steelie says:

    Good Day,

    I went for a nice walk this afternoon. The birds were extra chirpy… almost as if they can sense the coming Spring as the days get longer and the sun gets higher each day.

    Saturday is sounding pretty nice too. I’ll take sunny and near 50* for this time of year.

    As far as the CPC is concerned… I think it is worth mentioning the difference in average daily high temperatures and their progression upwards through the month. If I remember correctly, the average high temps increase around 10* (give or take a degree here or there). By the end of the month daily average highs should be right around 50*.

    Steelie

    1. Jack says:

      Oh Yes, The sounds,sights,and Feel.Of the Coming SPRING. That is WHY, SPRING is My Favorite SEASON ! :-)

    2. kevin. w says:

      Exactly harder and harder for sticking snows!

    3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That’s right by the end of March the average high here in GR should be just over 50°
      SlimJim

  35. Mr. Negative says:

    Snow remains, overcast, gray, windy, cold…

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Sounds like FANTASTIC weather to me! I would take that type of weather for about 6 straight months!!

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      AKA: :( weather remains in place

  36. kevin. w says:

    The east Asian polar jet is looking to relax within the next week and the NAO is now trending to neutral and/or positive and the PNA looks to relax a bit so by looking at this I’m suspecting that a more normal weather regime is going to start shaping up once we get out in the 10-14 day mark. By looking at the Euro and especially the 18z GFS it is looking more and more likely that once we get passed the 20th of March the storms coming in should be mostly rain events as the temperatures at the surface should be warm enough to mostly liquid. Still can’t rule out a snow event within the next two weeks but time clock on any real big snows are starting to dwindle…But then again were in Michigan.

  37. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Sure enough, another long-term model misses (at least for now).

    Detroit hit 43 today, so I definitely think 50 is doable this weekend for parts of Michigan. We also have a chance at stringing together four or more days of 40+ degree temps for the first time since the early January thaw almost two months ago.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Got to at lest 39° at the airport here in GR….I had a high temp at my house of 41° and right now its still 34° with some breaks in the clouds….BYW I still have around 3″ of snow on the ground for the most part BUT there are large areas on the south side of the house where there is no snow at all….and yes some of the spring flowers are now coming up.
      SlimJim

  38. Cort S. says:

    Just be thankful that we are not Washington D.C. Their snowstorms are pathetic. Huge bust today. Sometimes predicting Michigan weather is not all that bad in comparison to some other places. AND we don’t freak out on the roads and in the grocery stores here in Michigan whenever we see a snowflake. :)

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/danoshinsky/washington-dc-is-the-worst-during-a-snowstorm

    1. Cort S. says:

      From @wxbrad
      Tough forecast for Washington DC they missed the heavy snow by 16 miles. http://twitpic.com/c9720j GFS model resolution is 17 miles.

      (Note from Cort: It wouldn’t have mattered if the GFS model resolution was 16 miles or less, the forecast still would have busted for them. Just an interesting trivium.)

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      You beat me to it. I was going to say the same thing. Models last night predicted up to a foot or more, turned out to be mostly all rain.

  39. steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Sweet! My wife surprised me with a new computer! (I needed it…) So here I am playing around trying to figure out Windows 8 and checked on their weather app. Calls for 52* on Sunday. The app tells me their info comes from WDT. Huh…

    Steelie

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      What are the differences in the features of windows 8 oppose to 7, which I have? BTW I saw some of the early spring flying insects outside today that you spoke of a thread or 2 ago. Strange seeing bugs with snow on the ground.

      1. steelie says:

        Good Day,

        Completely different so far as I can tell. Reminds me of a Netflix or Xbox interface to some degree. It has taken a little getting used to. But as I am now getting a better understanding, it isn’t too bad. Although it did take almost 2 hours to figure out how to use the DVD. (Long story…) It’s growing on me.

        If relative to their size the bugs looked long and VERY skinny, they were probably late Winter stoneflies. If they looked more like a small mosquito then they were probably midges. A good sign Spring is not far away.

        Steelie

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          They were the stoneflies. Similar to the ones I tie, to try and catch your type in the rivers around this time of year.

        2. steelie says:

          Good Day,

          You are onto me… hehe.

          Steelie

  40. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Today turned out being a pretty nice March day. We made the middle 30′s here in the woods. Today was the first day that the snow has softened up since the middle of last week. And since it softened up I was finally able to go snowmobiling around the house today. We still have anywhere from 4-6″ of snow cover with over 9″ on our deck.

  41. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Government get the day off for some rain! What next??

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      What’s next…someone from the government threatening to close down your airport because of the sequester (video at 11). After that probably a tax increase.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Haha, I’ll tune in for that and check it out so I impress my Civics teacher tomorrow. Unfortunately Laura is doing the weather today and not you

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Wait, I worded that wrong! Don’t tell Laura I said that :p I think she’s awesome!

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I would never say it’s unfortunate when Laura does the weather.

        3. Jack says:

          I’d would Rather Look at Laura, Than Bill. No offense Bill, You understand. I’m Sure. ;-)

        4. Mike (Mattawan) says:

          haha

      2. Jack says:

        And after That…..DRONES !!! :-(

        1. Irish coffee says:

          SPY drones already being used covertly to “check up” on U.S citizens,….coming soon- lil’ black boxes in every vehicle to keep track of your mileage,speed,location, fast food choices(GPS),etc.”1984″+ 30 YEARS!! ;)

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          And government monitored thermostats so they can make sure you sweat in the summer and freeze in the winter. The next step will be to follow your every click on your computer and cell phone.

  42. CAROL says:

    Longer days bring Spring all that much closer.. I haven’t seen one robin yet and when I do..it’s official for me. Near 50 temps this weekend I am tempted to check under the white stuff covering the yard for crocus. Mild winter here bouts in eastern Calhoun county the flowers will be up sooner than other spots. Winter Geese on the river in multitudes..They never left this year at all.

  43. sb(anchorage) says:

    Interesting that you mention the geese never left this year at all. I’m in Anchorage, AK. I saw a robin out my work window at Christmas..feathers all puffed up for the cold. I wrote the local Audubon society and they said there’s a dozen that started to winter over.

    1. Skot says:

      Woke up to a song bird out my window this morning.

  44. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Saw a robin in my front yard yesterday morning.

    1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      yeah… a couple mornings ago I heard a couple birds outside and the sun was peering through the window so (since i was still half asleep) I was sort of “imagining” spring and when I looked outside I was shocked to still see a ground covered in snow! Regardless… its a sign that spring is right around the corner which also means thats its ALMOST time to switch gears to start tracking stormy weather! :D can’t wait!

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