Euro. backing off the snowstormMarch 6th, 2013 at 4:34 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
A quick update. First the earlier post from last night: The European model has the potential (and it’s only a potential from one model) snow event on Monday. First it has 0.42″ of rain Sat. night thru Sunday midday. Then, on Monday, it has rain fairly quickly changing to snow (this would be similar to the concrete-like snow we got Feb. 26-7). With 850 mb temps. of -3 and falling, it would be mostly snow and it prints out a bunch of precipitation (0.90″ for G.R.). The GFS is warmer with 0.33″ of rain Sat. night/Sun. and then 0.59″ of mainly rain (less than an inch snow) on Monday. Both models have a chilly day to follow on Tue. with temperatures 10 degrees below average in the low 30s. The GRR NWS discussion from this early morning is right on and says: “THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW… HANGING UP THE SFC FRONT AND SHOWING THE SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH LWR MI. MEANWHILE THE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM IND TO TOL AND IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECENT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT FOR OUR AREA ON MONDAY.” The FIM model has the low coming up over S. Lower Michigan with rain changing to maybe an inch or two of snow. The Canadian has a low up over Alpena and the UKMET has a weaker low over Lake Erie. Check in around 2:30 PM and I’ll try to post something about the new European. We could be in for a rocky Monday.
Weds. PM Update: Euro. has a good soaking for us, just shy of an inch - now almost all of it is rain, with the heaviest rain to the southeast of G.R. and a changeover to snow at the end of the event. The Canadian would also have almost all rain. The track of the low still varies widely on the models. That’s all for now. I’ll write more later this evening.