Spring on Hold

March 14th, 2013 at 3:37 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

814temp.new  814prcp.new  Click the graphics to enlarge.  You know it was 80 degrees in G.R. one year ago today…on the 14th!   This is the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlooks for March 21-27.  The map on the left is temperature relative to average.  Look at all that blue!  The darkest blue is over the N. Plains and Great Lakes.   The map on the right is precipitation relative to average.  The letter “A” for above is about over Berrien County.   The overnight run of the European model says G.R. could get some significant snow.  It prints out 0.42″ of precipitation Friday PM/Night and it looks like most of that precipitation will be snow.  The question is how soon does it go over to snow.  It’ll start Friday – maybe early afternoon with the temperature close to 40.  The temperature will go down once it starts precipitating at a decent rate.  It’ll be warm enough initially that even if we start as snow, some will melt on contact with the ground.  By evening we’ll be down to the low 30s and then we’ll fall to the mid 20s overnight.   The NAM (caribou) has less precipitation (0.20″ for G.R.) and less snow (virtually none south of a line from S. Haven to Coldwater) and only 1-2″ north of I-96.  The GFS is quite cold…nothing higher than the upper 30s thru 3/30 (remember, it’s the GFS, but still).  It would also be mostly snow Friday PM/Night with perhaps 2-3″ for G.R.   Monday’s system would start as rain and then over to snow showers and it’s cold.  It has temperatures here Tuesday afternoon in the mid 20s, about 20 degrees colder than average.   The European is also mid-upper’s Tuesday and is cold enough that we cold see 2-4″ of snow after a changeover from rain Monday PM/Night.   The GFS would have more snow showers next Thursday and it even prints out 1-3″ of snow around the 29th of March.   The Euro. clears us out and takes us to 10 above Sunday AM with the fresh snow cover (that’s probably too low).    The slick driving will come Friday night into early Saturday and again late Monday thru Tuesday night.  Plan accordingly.  This should be yet another great weekend for winter sports across the U.P. and at least the northern half of Lower Michigan.  The NAO stays negative, the Arctic Oscillation is very negative, the PNA is negative.   That all means that the odds of an early spring are negative.

Heavy snow in northern France.  Video here (English here).  Ice, snow and cold across much of NW Europe.

158 Responses to “Spring on Hold”

  1. kevin. w says:

    Some idiot forecaster from the Buffalo office is saying that the Greenland blocking may hang on through the spring and early summer which could give us a rather cool spring and early summer. I always thought it was hard to forecast past two weeks. I remember one summer it was very cold and it didn’t warm up til the end of July only to have it get cold in September to have a very long brutal winter which I think we had snow from mid October all the way til the following May.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Seasonal forecasting is a crapshoot, but if you looks at Slim’s post way above, the most recent cold Marches appear to have been followed by fairly cool Aprils and Mays. Don’t know how much of a part the cooler than normal Lake Michigan temps might have played in those numbers.

    2. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

      A cool spring/summer will really hurt alot of businesses. I hope this idiot forecaster is dead wrong. Then again, you never know.

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi
    Dreaming of a White Easter? ECMWF says coldest Easter since at least 07 for US.

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi
    Euros weeklies are the coldest run of the cold season. brutal through day 20, lets up 25-30

    1. Jack says:

      Yeah, Those March Temps. Are just Plain…COLD, COLD, COLD. Cue : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyQTtAm8yrA. ;-)

  3. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    I am forecasting 1.1 inches of snow on Friday. Next week storm, maybe 2.1 inches. Fox 17 claiming late next week it will warm-up. There forecast always scare me.haha

  4. Battle Creek- i94 says:

    Seems the 0z GFS is a bit broken.

  5. Jack says:

    Top of the FRIDAY Morning , 2 Ya’ all …. Here is a Little J.J.Cale. Simply Called. FRIDAY :: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCVEAtb3y1I. Enjoy… And, Stay Cued. ;-)

  6. Jerry hoag says:

    I remember when I was younger there was snow on the ground on Easter!!! And not to long ago it snowed on Memorial Day!! Remember people???????? I am so hoping this year is not a crap shot but only Mother Nature knows. And of course, GOD knows too!!! Maybe this weather will bring us some severe weather!! PLEASE???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. Jeff says:

    Bring on SPRING!!!!!! Sure I’m going down to our place in Fort Myers beach Florida for three weeks but, would like to get back and get going on my garden.

  8. GunLakeDeb says:

    US-131 Motorsports Park (dragway) is supposed to open in 3 weeks. This year, that REEEALLY feels optimistic…..

  9. GrampGrumpy says:

    Bill,

    What has the syrup run been like this year? Supposedly days above freezing and nights below are signs of a long run until it grows warm enough for the little red buds to pop out on the maple branches. Haven’t seen any yet.

    Last year was a real beast for syrup production with a run of only a day or two. I’d like to see a bumper year with a drop in the astromical high price so I could enjoy my pancakes.

    PS What did Warren say to Glen Eckelkamp that broke up everybody on the set? I didn’t hear the comment, but saw the results.

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