Spring on HoldMarch 14th, 2013 at 3:37 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click the graphics to enlarge. You know it was 80 degrees in G.R. one year ago today…on the 14th! This is the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlooks for March 21-27. The map on the left is temperature relative to average. Look at all that blue! The darkest blue is over the N. Plains and Great Lakes. The map on the right is precipitation relative to average. The letter “A” for above is about over Berrien County. The overnight run of the European model says G.R. could get some significant snow. It prints out 0.42″ of precipitation Friday PM/Night and it looks like most of that precipitation will be snow. The question is how soon does it go over to snow. It’ll start Friday – maybe early afternoon with the temperature close to 40. The temperature will go down once it starts precipitating at a decent rate. It’ll be warm enough initially that even if we start as snow, some will melt on contact with the ground. By evening we’ll be down to the low 30s and then we’ll fall to the mid 20s overnight. The NAM (caribou) has less precipitation (0.20″ for G.R.) and less snow (virtually none south of a line from S. Haven to Coldwater) and only 1-2″ north of I-96. The GFS is quite cold…nothing higher than the upper 30s thru 3/30 (remember, it’s the GFS, but still). It would also be mostly snow Friday PM/Night with perhaps 2-3″ for G.R. Monday’s system would start as rain and then over to snow showers and it’s cold. It has temperatures here Tuesday afternoon in the mid 20s, about 20 degrees colder than average. The European is also mid-upper’s Tuesday and is cold enough that we cold see 2-4″ of snow after a changeover from rain Monday PM/Night. The GFS would have more snow showers next Thursday and it even prints out 1-3″ of snow around the 29th of March. The Euro. clears us out and takes us to 10 above Sunday AM with the fresh snow cover (that’s probably too low). The slick driving will come Friday night into early Saturday and again late Monday thru Tuesday night. Plan accordingly. This should be yet another great weekend for winter sports across the U.P. and at least the northern half of Lower Michigan. The NAO stays negative, the Arctic Oscillation is very negative, the PNA is negative. That all means that the odds of an early spring are negative.