Lake-Effect Snow Advisory to 10 AM Thurs.
March 20th, 2013 at 4:09 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Not much going on. Kent, Barry and Newaygo Counties have been removed from the Advisory. We’ve actually were mostly clear in G.R. for a couple hours. The snow showers overnight have been mainly in the lakeshore counties and Cass County. The G.R. National Weather Service has issued a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory until 10 am for slick spots during the morning commute. Here’s the latest GRR NWS discussion.
As predicted by Nathan last night. Nice work, young grasshopper.
As quickly as you can, snatch the pebble from my hand! Love it.
Than you, sensei
The Sunday/Monday system keeps flip flopping on the Gfs. The 00z and 12z models the last two days have shown the system hitting us, while the 06 z and 18z keep showing the system further south. If the 00z is right, I would be in the 10-12″ range…the 06z that just rolled in is would give areas south of 96 about 2-5″. I haven’t been in the bullseye for a storm all year, so I have doubts.
Yuck! That’s all I got!
Get that snow out of here!
Kent to be in the advisory this afternoon? What do you guys think?
No, we don’t get the heaviest snow with a WNW or NW flow… Maybe 1-2 (possibly 3 in the SW corner) btw, it’s officially spring! Awaiting Bills yearly spring equinox post…
Grandville can get heavy snow in WNW flow.
Yea, I didn’t notice your location.
This weather is good for me, farming was tough last year. At least the ground will stay cold, but we don’t need the snow for that, because its harder to trim the plants.
I heard somewhere that the farmers are going to have a very bountiful year! Hope this is true for the farmers especially West MI!
I heard that too. Especially apples
I hope the apples are!!!
Our blueberry place had a lot of them last year!!! We picked about 8 times and froze most of them. Still eating today!!!
I want spring :*(
So, is it Spring or is it still Winter? We may have a Snow Storm next week!
WOW, WINTER! Bring on the biggest snow storm for Spring!
The 06Z GFS has about 2.4″ for Monday…Kalamazoo is around 6″.
Am curious how the temps this March compare to history! I don’t remember another March this cold in my 67yrs!
you must not be from michigan then. we have had snow in both april and the first part of may as well. pretty sure this isn’t the first march we have had that was this cold.
shoot, 95.6″ in Muskegon so far, might as well break the 100″ mark!
BRING IT!
More money falling from the sky
Missed yesterdays snow, not enough to plow last night (most lots were dry and bare)
I’m going to have to hop on the plow-mounted ATV today – we’ve got some serious drifts at work
Had some big drifts in my driveway yesterday, but fortunately my wonderful neighbor with the tractor/front end loader had dealt with that by the time we got home from work!!!
Amazing that Muskegon will end up with above average snowfall, perhaps even significantly. Absolutely amazing with the unbelievable lack of snow through at least mid-January not only in West Michigan, but in Muskegon in particular. Remember the Snow Bubble earlier this year, where everyone else had snow cover and the narrow strip from Grand Haven to Muskegon had absolutely nothing? To bounce back in such a way is a fascinating weather event in my mind.
Yea I remember it well, we had like 7″ before Jan 20. I REALLY started to think this would be the year of no snow since the last 2 years we never got snow AFTER Feb 20th or so….it sure did turn around.
Sweet 10 inches would put us at season avg!!!
i just hope this isn’t the start of a cold spring and summer here.
Sunday-Monday sounds interesting…GFS showing a pretty healthy system, but don’t get your hopes up could end up well south as par to the euro
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
well soo much for the above average they were predicting. seems now they say about an average spring and summer which basically means it’s gonna suck.
WOW, fixxxer! I thought you didn’t place any value in the long range outlooks?
Big surprise that you are complaining here! ENJOY the SNOW!!! First week of Spring and we get a snow storm!!! Gotta love Michigan weather!!
go troll somewhere else dan.
Troll? Is that what you are calling me? I’m on this blog frequently and I post frequently. I have been called many things. Never a troll! Why don’t you get a life fixxxer and quick complaining ALL THE TIME! Why is that you think Bill is to blame for the weather? You should consider moving if you hate the weather so much. I know, why don’t you consider NOT POSTING!
Yeah, I wouldn’t pay too much attention to that long range. Look how it’s worked out in the past for us. I’m sure next week that map will be swapped around
That link shows us in the +40 for above average temps from April – June. Look again.
5″ from yesterdays lake effect…..uncle ! Uncle !
Still reading Ernie Ostuno’s book about the 1956 tornado outbreak – and one person’s account caught my eye: they talked about the “winter that just wouldn’t leave”. YIKES!!!! The book says GR had significant snow on Mar 30th; and just 4 days later, suffered the worst tornado outbreak ever recorded for West Michigan. I sure hope we’re not setting up for something like THAT again.
Look at this picture of the drifted over snow on the snowmobile trail near Paradise, MI. Those turn signs are about 3 to 3.5 feet tall for a reference.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=630183957007311&set=a.193099900715721.55104.192336687458709&type=1&theater
And I’m not exactly sure where in the U.P. this one is, but wow!
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=438041342945616&set=a.111149122301508.19116.111111752305245&type=1&theater
With the knowledge and satellites we have now, would we have been able to see the set up for the ’56 tornados days ahead of time ? How much pre warning Would there been on the day? Also did they pick up any radar images during that tornado?
I wouldn’t worry about any tornados over here.
I don’t think she’s worried, she’s just curious about how our modern technology would have handled the 1956 outbreak. That outbreak, by the way, spawned a strong tornado somewhere on Lake Michigan, and it hit the shore right at the Saugatuck lighthouse, which was destroyed.
I have a feeling that we would have been able to see this outbreak coming nowadays. Not sure how many days in advance, but certainly the day before and the day of, the blog would have been buzzing with the potential. There were tornadoes in Wisconsin several hours before the Michigan tornadoes started. They even issued a “tornado forecast” back then (today’s “tornado watch”). I don’t think there are any radar images of those storms. If there were, I probably would have seen them somewhere. With today’s radar, I bet those storms would have looked like classic supercells with hook echoes. There is more information about that day’s weather setup in the “Meteorological Conditions” section of this research article:
http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/36/36
In Ernie’s book, he mentions that there was a big push to install weather radar after the outbreak of ’56; so I’m reading into that, that it wasn’t available before?
I know we all poke fun at “media hype” – but SO many people stood and looked directly at the ’56 Hudsonville/Standale tornado (which was clearly visible – no precip for the most part) and DID NOT RECOGNIZE what they were seeing until it was practically on top of them. Some folks drove TOWARDS it, thinking it was a big fire and they were seeing “smoke” – OMG. So at least, in this hype-filled day and age, I doubt there’s a person alive who doesn’t know what a tornado looks like.
There may have been some radars scattered around the country after the war, but radars suited for weather may have been few and far between back then.
When I came to WZZM, they used an old RCA AVQ-10 radar that was pulled out of an aircraft. We didn’t get a REAL weather radar until 1983.
The 12Z GFS has trended south from the 00Z with the storm for Sunday night/Monday. It still has a good 3-5″ south of I96, more south of 94 and less north of 96. Still a lot of time for the models to fluctuate.
Sure we have Jim, just not when it counts LOL
By rule….if I am in the bullseye 4 days ahead of the storm, that is not good. How often are the models that accurate 4 days out?
Isn’t that the truth
Hope it trends all south. Time for spring!!
I think the snow has followed us home from Cabela’s in Grandville. I looked out the front window there and it was snowing hard. Now here back at home i have less than a 1/4 mile vis. Its coming down good. The store is beautifull and well laid out. Just 2000 to many people shopping at once. 23.0° here.
I’ll bet whatever pistol ammo. and 22. caliber shells they had in stock, sold out real quickly!
And .226 and 9mm….. drats.
All of this cold weather and snow isnt going to be any better for the farmers. Especially if we get a cold spring and summer. Seriously this lake effect just needs to stop already.
Seriously, this fixxxer needs to stop already!
Would you like some cheese with your whine?
Maybe we should ask the farmers what they think would be better?
Its alright. The growing season will be here, it will be delayed that’s fine with me it just means more money. We won’t be dealing with the north west which tends to flood the market.
I was very glad that we (in Fennville) weren’t in the heaviest snowfall area for a change. I’m hoping for the same today.
The snow is good for the farmers since it keeps the ground wet and doesn’t encourage growth too early. But by April it’s time for at least 50s. Any 50s in the forecast Bill for April?
Folks around my nape of the neck put up maple syrup buckets about a week ago.
I already have more sap collected this year than I did all last year!!!
yea I do as well, we tapped 2 weeks ago and until today have been drowning in it. I am still sitting on 400 gallons but its so frozen in the tank, all the valves are froze, I just shut it down till the weather warms a bit.
Guarenteed. There will be at least one day in the 50′s in April.
Lol…like we would listen to you mike.
Probably should. He realizes that the average high by the end of April is 64 degrees. You’ve been nothing but an ice queen today.
12z Canadian has a stronger low that gives the SE part of the state a good snowstorm…with little snow for West Michigan (other than Kalamazoo to the SE.)
12Z GFS buries Northern Indiana.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR
How about a little farther north please?
How about not please? Check the calander… it’s now officially Spring. Even for those of us who are indifferant towards winter, it’s time to put it to bed.
4 days out, 100 mile shift to the north is still very possible. I’d probably be more worried if it had us in the sweet spot right now.
12Z also has an April Fool’s snowstorm missing us just to the SOUTH. The new normal sure is COLD!!
Still a good day or so before this storm is sampled. But definitely a high likelihood of some sort of shift between now and Sunday-Monday. Euro is still holding its ground with the more southern track.
looks like quite a bit of snow for Kalamazoo County as well..
I hope not but it is what it is at this point.
Still gives us about 5-6″
These storms usually trend north through time altough I’m still in the 8-10 range
Anyone know when the LE is supposed to pick up this afternoon?
According to the aviation update, they say there will be a little lull this afternoon before they crank up again overnight.
Note the direction of the snowbands in the UP, and then the direction of the ones coming off lake Michigan, now look at the small blips in WI thats the wave moving southeast then east and you should see things crank up any moment and continue into the night.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif
Hey Nathan… check it!
Issued by The National Weather Service
Grand Rapids, MI
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 3:32 PMEDT
Local Radar Map
Updated Mar 20, 2013, 3:25pm EDT
Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady
Prepare for Winter Storms
Keep Safe During the Storm
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… LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY… WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
* SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
* WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
IMPACTS…
* ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK THIS EVENING.
* SUDDEN LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
* CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS… SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. PRACTICE YOUR WINTER SAFETY RULES… KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT… FOOD… AND WATER IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.
I figured they would put Kent in the advisory eventually.
The endless winter.
+1
Crazy snowbands here – one minute it’s not snowing – then the next, it’s a whiteout. Roads are just wet, however – no accumulation. Yet.
Been That way here as Well, all Day Deb. I Think it’s just THE GOD model, trying 2 tick Fixxer Off.!! Lol….
. … Stay Cued !
Most days, that’s not too hard to do, Jack
TRUE, How VERY TRUE !
So, with the projected high for Monday being in the low 40′s, how are we supposed to get a ‘snow’storm?
I’ve got out 39 for a high temperature. The temperatures aloft are cold enough for all snow. It can warm up at the ground when the sun is fairly high in the sky as it is now, but any precipitation into 39 degrees would quickly lower the temperature closer to freezing and any initial raindrops that would make it to the ground would quickly go over to snow.
SNOW STORM 8 to 12 inches on the WAY!!!!! This is going to be GREAT!!!
No..Way…HOSEA !!!!!!!
Anyone know when this is supposed to intensify this evening? I see it getting weaker right now, is this it? Or is it going to kick back in later?
x2…wondering the same thing, so close to two inches.