Severe Weather this Weekend and this Summer

March 22nd, 2013 at 12:14 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1200 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook   First, the weekend storm is going to produce severe t-storms and possibly tornadoes across the Southern U.S.  These are the severe t-storm (in yellow) and general thunderstorm outlook (in green) for today, tomorrow and the next day.  Second, we’ve had a very quiet March in terms of severe weather in the U.S.  So far this month, we’ve had only 12 tornadoes in the entire U.S. with no fatalities.  Last year, we had 154 tornadoes in the U.S. in March and 43 fatalities.  The severe weather season came early, then really died down.  We had no tornado fatalities in May 2012.  Severe weather is going to pick up to at least average in the 2nd half of April to June.  As was the case last year, the main area we’re concerned about for severe storms will be farther east than the usual “tornado alley”.  So, watch out in Missouri, Arkansas, Illnois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and northern and maybe central Mississippi and northern Alabama.  As usual, in Lower Michigan, the threat of severe weather will be greater to the south (Indiana border) and lower to the north and near Lake Michigan (the water is cold).  There will also be at least an average chance of a derecho or significant severe t-storm complex with more widespread wind damage.  Here’s derecho climatology.  I think we have a heat ridge over the E. Rockies and Plains that will give us WNW upper flow.  Last summer, the heat ridge extended into the Great Lakes in June and especially July.  I still think we’ll have some hot days, but the WNW flow will keep the hottest temperatures relative to average to our west for much of the summer and the WNW flow is favorable for fast-moving west to east or WNW to ESE t-storm complexes.  Last year we had very little severe weather in W. Michigan.  I think we’ll be back to an average year this year.  Last year we had a deadly outbreak of tornadoes on March 2nd. I took two of my vacation days last spring to drive along the path of tornadoes in Indiana and Kentucky to see what I could learn. The storms caused 40 fatalities and 1.5 BILLION dollars in damage. There were more tornadoes that day than any other day of the year. A tornado was reported yesterday in N California. The Dexter (MI) Twister also occurred in March last year. Here’s pictures and a video of the small twister. Several hail reports in Arkansas Thurs. AM

17 Responses to “Severe Weather this Weekend and this Summer”

  1. Dan says:

    The Summer forecast is out! Thanks, Bill! Looks like average to just below average temps for summer. When do we look to begin warming up, Mid to Late April, May, June or Summer of 2014?

  2. Dan says:

    Anybody have an idea of what the weather will be like in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina? Matt Kirkwood put up a graphic to represent that it would be cooler than average down there during the week of Spring Break (March 29th through April 6th) What does that mean? Would I be far off if I planned for temps to be in the 50s and 60s for that area?

    1. Laker says:

      It’s going to be probably in the low-mid 50′s through most of early next week in the southeast. Florida will be in the low-mid 60′s with 40′s for lows. It’s going to be chilly next week in the south. It looks like a slight warm up will occur later next week into Easter weekend.

    2. Lynne Postma says:

      It means wear your long johns, lol….

  3. INDY says:

    No severe weather just yet fact below normal temps with snow and cold to mid April….Stay tuned INDYY..

    1. Jerry hoag says:

      Hey INDY!! Sounds like it maybe our year for severe weather with the fast flow in the upper levels!!

      Maybe a derecho???? Or two????? Who knows 2013 maybe our year!!

  4. Jeremy says:

    The GFS has shifted the snowstorm back north again for Sunday, the Indiana bordering counties getting a few inches.

  5. Paul says:

    I would love a thunderstorm right now!

  6. Michael g (se gr) says:

    Sunny most of the day in Benton Harbor. Headed back toward GR now, looks like lots of low clouds ahead.

  7. Katie in Kentwood says:

    I enjoyed the winter, but I am SO ready for spring! I can’t wait to get out and bike ride for fitness, and go swimming, and disc golfing…and go to the beach…the list goes on haha

    1. Jack says:

      Ditto..Katie !!!! Stay cued ! TGIF !!,

  8. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

    No matter Spring or winter, the crocuses are starting to push up in the front of my apartment complex courtyard….. I’ve seen many Robins and beautiful cardinals, though I know some of them stay all winter…. :)

  9. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    OOZ NAM still keeps the system south maybe 2 inches around 94 at most

  10. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Great summer forecast. Looks like average to slightly above average. I’ll take it

  11. Jack says:

    Bill, Looks like This SUMMER, we will Have a few of These… CUE: ;-)

  12. AlleganJoe says:

    It appears this Summer will not go down in history as a Hot one…just the usual temps. Fighting to reach 80′s and dropping back down to the 70′s.!! :(
    We have been there many times before. Well…it’s Better than the cold and snow–the dreary days!! Hurry Up Spring and esp….SUMMER!! :)

  13. Jerry hoag says:

    Yeah sounds like we will have an average severe weather season to maybe more with the fast flow.
    Derecho chances better because of this!! Who knows 2013 maybe our year for some really good storms! Bring them on!!

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