Thursday

May 2nd, 2013 at 2:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  4:08 PM – Hey, the mid-Lake Michigan buoy is in…40 miles west of Holland.  Get this…it shows an air temperature of 39.7 and a water temp. of 40.1 with a north wind at 22 mph.   A few showers and t-showers have developed in a north-south line from Van Buren Co. up into central Allegan Co.  then from  Newaygo Co north thru Lake Co. and along the Manistee/Wexford Co. line.  Nothing severe, though I can’t rule out some gusty winds and small hail.  Brief heavy rain with the shower moving north from Allegan Co. toward Hudsonville/Jenison.    Look at temps. and wind. At 3 PM, it’s 82 in Fremont and 49 on the beach at Muskegon!  it’s 80 in G.R. and 50 on the beach at Grand Haven!  It’s 82 in Cadillac, 83 in Big Rapids, but only 53 with a wind off the lake at Ludington, 56 at Traverse City.   Kalamazoo is 80, S. Haven with a wind off the lake is 53 degrees!   There’s some dandy surface convergence.  Muskegon has a west wind at 8 mph.  Big Rapids has an east wind gusting to 23 mph.  Where the air is meeting – that’s where the showers and storms are forming.     Nice satellite loop of the clouds over the Eastern U.S. from Weds.  I’m move radar to the top of the blog.  The European model prints out a whopping 0.02″ for G.R. this afternoon/evening.  Don’t hold your breath.   Check out the snowman cam at Krupp’s Resort in the U.P. (the snow melt has been steady and significant – still ice on the lake).  NASA satellite IR shows Jan – Apr. was 9th coldest out of 35 years for the Lower 48 states and that March/April was coldest since the mid 1990s.    Also 9.92″ of rain near Dees, AL – flooding also in MS.  Other rainfall totals from Weds:  3.89 Okeechobee FL, 3.42″ Biloxi MS, 2.02″ Fort Lauderdale FL, 1.30″ New Orleans.  Weds. G.R. had a high of 85 – compared to 76 in Tampa and New Orleans, 73 in Mobile and 78 in Galveston.  Cheyenne, WY had an afternoon high of 27.  The average high for them is low 60s!

For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours.

 

74 Responses to “Thursday”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    I promise not to hold my breath. I want the ponds surrounding my house to DRY up before those mosquitos wake up.

    NO MORE RAIN.

    1. Nathan says:

      Yea, if you hold your breathe I dont think you would make it

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Overall, yesterday was a +18 degrees above normal day for GR. +22 for Houghton Lake. It would have been a warm day even for July. I love when summer comes early. Go Wings!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      +12 for Detroit also. Go Wings!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I was close at +17 for Flint.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      For fun 6 days ago GR was -10, and -17 degrees 11 days ago. Hopefully it doesn’t go back. Hockey ends for me this weekend, and sailing season begins. I need warm and windy.

    3. Brad says:

      Absent freak blocking events caused by melting ice, this is the new normal!

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Melting ice causing it? That’s weird. If there is so much melting ice, and worldwide ice is above normal, it must have been even colder than I thought the last few years.

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          World wide ice is above normal? I want what he’s drinking. Just cause you say it, don’t make it so.

          http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/global_ice_viewer

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s true: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

          Here’s Arctic ice extent: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/ (within one standard deviation of “normal” (satellite era)

          Antarctic ice extent waaaaaaaay above average and more than last year at this time: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          WOW! Look at US/CANADA snow cover: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif It’s May 2! Most of Canada snow covered…snow on the ground in Iowa and Minnesota!

          Snow and ice melt about 3 weeks behind average in Alaska: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

          Nearly 12% of the Lower 48 states STILL has snow on the ground: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

          NASA April satellite IR says the globe was -0.038 deg C colder than average for the month.

          Tens of thousands of animals freeze to death and you want to make it colder? http://www.u.tv/news/43000-carcasses-found-in-snow/cafcb06e-1dfd-4391-934b-2ef5af316942#.UYCIJuOAsvQ.twitter

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          See Kevin, there is a difference between DATA and PROPAGANDA.

  3. Nathan says:

    TWC says high of 72… Its 71 right now and the hourly forecast shows 78 at 3PM!!

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    70′s and well above average temps through at least next Thursday… Wood is the warmest forecast on the block! They must have gotten summer fever. I like it.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Unless any/all temps above normal are well above… I am just not seeing it.

  5. Dan says:

    The European model prints out a whopping 0.02″ for G.R. this afternoon/evening.

    0.02″ of what?

  6. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    How about the 11am update….Benton Harbor at 52 degrees, SHaven at 60, Holland at 77. The wind directions across the area are all over the place.

  7. jason Brock says:

    What a beautiful day outside!!!!!!!! Go Wings!!!!!!!

  8. Brad says:

    400 parts per million,

    vs. the Koch brothers’ 100 billion.

    1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

      Brad educate yourself before you make more dumb comments with regard to 400 ppm.

      http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

      1. Brad says:

        Whatchoo talkin’ bout, Willis?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          We’re talking about global temperatures holding steady for over a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Everyone admits that’s the case, even James Hansen:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          CO2 emissions in the U.S. are going DOWN not up:

          http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UYLn3Erou3M

          Dr. Judith Curry has called the climate models “deeply flawed”.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Interesting position to defend considering…

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Take a look at the graph at your link…temperatures flat for over 10 years. That’s what NASA says:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Hansen admits it…and you look foolish trying to claim otherwise:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          This graph from Dr. Hawkins at the Univ. of Reading shows that the IPCC climate models are about to bust big time:

          http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/290-width/images/print-edition/20130330_STC334_1.png

          This is funny…even the graph that MediaMatters uses shows temperatures are flat! http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/item/nocooling.jpg

    2. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      The Left’s evil boogey men, the Koch brothers. I’d back them rather than George Soros any day.

  9. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    LOL the weather channel ran out of names for winter storms so they stated to use next winters list

    besides that what a wonderful day in West MI

  10. GunLakeDeb says:

    That snow in Wisconsin is 4 hours away from us as the crow flies?? And here we sit enjoying a PERFECT day…I’m SOOOOOO glad I have to “mow my lawn” and NOT “shovel the driveway”

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I agree, this is about perfect.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      As far as I’ve been watching, CPC never predicted this big warm up, so I’m not sure about them lately.

      This one says a warming trend will re-accelerate by the end of next week before dipping back to the 60′s for a bit. But no signs of any prolonged below average.

      http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585

      1. whatisthedeal says:

        Travis,

        I concur completely. I don’t know if it has to do with the CPC relying on the GFS (which usually has a cool bias) for their long range forecasts, versus the Euro, but lately they have been off. No one really saw the magnitude of this current warm up happening, although the current contrast in temps between here in GR and across the lake in Wisconsin (Milwaukee is currently 50 degrees) is astounding.

        How do you predict the set up for something that extreme more than a few days in advance?? Like you mentioned earlier in an earlier post, the increase in forecast temps for this coming weekend and most of next week is also shocking versus what was forecast just a few days ago. I do agree it will cool off for a time in the middle of the month, but how much and for how long? Either way, this next week looks like a treat, so everyone enjoy, it, including Rocky!!

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Yep, exactly. Well said.

        2. Cort S. says:

          I feel like every year, the first really big warm-up in the spring is always underestimated. Every year. I mean, I can’t blame any forecaster for wanting to be conservative on the high temps, because they’d tick a lot of people off if the first burst of spring didn’t arrive as planned. But it seems like the first 80+ degree day of the year is always a bit of a surprise. But the models (or at least the statistical models, not sure about the dynamical models) are also built to resist straying too far away from the climatological normals, so that doesn’t really help on those days.

          As for this weekend, to see such a drastic change is not too big of a surprise. That nasty cut-off low which was scheduled to plague us is thankfully plaguing those who are west and south of us. This weekend was certainly a boom or bust forecast, thanks to that ugly cut-off low. Luckily for us, we didn’t get the bum end of the deal this time!

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        What sources does whatever weather 360 use?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          They won’t reveal their secret sauce, but I like it because it usually blends a bunch of the most popular models together to build the underlying trend.

  11. INDY says:

    I wish I had time to sit on Bills blog and talk temps with u all but I don’t this time of year means sprites lights white candy and ice!!! Facts are it’s May its warm get outside and love somebody……SUMMER IS HERE!!!!!! INTO THEE 80′S LATE NEXT WEEK!! no sighns of any Travis downs, stay tuned INDYY……

  12. Jen in Middleville says:

    TWC app says 86, they forecast 75 for middleville today…..so I am just going to assume this weekend will be hot too? Going to have to get chemicals in the pool soon at this rate.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Back to back 80+ degree days the first of May. This is starting to remind me of the scorcher of last May.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Yeah, it’s almost as warm as last March.

  13. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    77 here with a 53 dewpoint and a 10 mph SE breeze. Perfect day.

  14. Deb says:

    Just checked weather.com for there 10 day forcast for next week, (I know not that reliable, but Bill does not have a UP forecast, maybe you should add that Bill at least for the weekends! ) while we are in the UP. It is actually looking pretty good and better then in years past. We go to the same spot every year and while most years are cold 30-40′s with some rain and snow this year looks to be 50-60′s. I thought for sure a few weeks ago, there would still be snow up there.

  15. mr. negative says:

    Dark little groups of clouds beginning to gang-up and head North of GR…

  16. Jerry hoag says:

    Showers and storms are forming!! WAHOOOO! Now can we get some in Grand Rapids? I sure hope se!! Be nice to have some convergence on wind storms….lake breezes and se/e winds, perfect! Bring them on!

    1. Jack says:

      Weather History Tid..Bits…Here : 5/2/1929
      A snowstorm puts down a slushy coating of 2 to 3 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.
      5/2/1930
      Grand Rapids was struck by a tornado that moved through the factory district on the south part of the city. Four people were injured as many buildings were unroofed. Damage totaled over a million dollars.

  17. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    There was a lot of grass showing yesterday. What a difference a day makes!
    http://www.michigansnowcams.com/webcams/ontonagon.htm

    1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

      Notice the 50 degree temperature difference from us “southerners”.

  18. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    Cooled off here to 58* around noon time. About 1000ft from Lake Michigan.

  19. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    wow! Was nice and warm then this breeze kicked in….. its chilly now!

  20. Brad says:

    We’re going to smash average temps this May.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Give us an exact figure. How far from normal will the average temperature for G.R. be in May 2013.

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      Beware, Brad. Bill doesn’t honor his bets. He’s challenged me on the winter forecast two years in a row, lost both times, and then conveniently forgot about the bets.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        My snowfall prediction for this winter was 67″. We are now at 66″.

        http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/12/a_winter_dumping_or_a_dusting.html

        global temperatures are flat – not warming!

        HA! Even Media Matters confirms it: http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/item/nocooling.jpg

  21. Paul says:

    Somebody may want to tell the Norton Shores Police Department to find the guy who is parading those glasses that he found around like a new toy. They may contain DNA and may be evidence in a murder.

    What a bunch of goobers, lol.

  22. Jo Anne says:

    Bill,is it just me, or is the sun not where it is supposed to be in the early morning? Any one else notice this?

    1. Blue Moon says:

      ummm no, it’s not, it’s the apocalypse Joanne

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Dr. Lennart Bengtsson, formerly of UN IPCC: ‘We Are Creating Great Anxiety Without It Being Justified…there are no indications that the warming is so severe that we need to panic…The warming we have had the last a 100 years is so small that if we didn’t have had meteorologists and climatologists to measure it we wouldn’t have noticed it at all.’

  23. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Well well my little weather hobos, your ol uncle sparks just got poured on in the back woods! That’s ok the the 40th blessing of seeds and buds went off very well! We had smokey treats and did the hokey pokey dance around the outdoor crop today. Tomorrow we will get the thongers out and do our first trip down the mighty pine. Saturday we put bones the hog in the smoker and celebrate beast and man living as one. Let the back woods fest and feast begin!

    1. Jack says:

      Keep up the GREAT Work…UNCLE Sparkee….. ;-) . http://i.myniceprofile.com/114/11451.gif. :-)

      1. Uncle Sparkee says:

        Will do cuz jack! Roll on

  24. big Daddy BC says:

    Great piece. Made me think of Bill Steffen and his continual bashing of anything green.

    http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/04/why-do-conservatives-waste-energy

    1. SW Kent says:

      big Daddy, please just go away.
      If you don’t like Bill’s blog then blog somewhere else…..I’m sure there is a blog out there where you can bash hard working, job creating, conservatives somewhere…..

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Just like he wasn’t here in April, ignore it and it will get cold again.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Honestly, read this and tell me you want to fill your house with carcinogen-filled light bulbs: http://www.maine.gov/dep/homeowner/cflbreakcleanup.html We could fill every home with these cancer-causing bulbs and not budge global temperature 1/100th of a degree.

    3. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Mother Jones? As if they would ever print anything that’s unbiased. big Daddy, why don’t you go blog on HuffPo or the Daily Kos; you’d fit in nicely there.

    4. dano (Norton Shores) says:

      WOW, motherjones.com, that’s one of the most negetive far left liberal websites. They are negetive on everything. Come on Big Daddy, you can come up with something better than that site.

  25. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Only 77 officially in Detroit today, you westsiders beat us by 5 degrees… Enjoy.

    1. Jack says:

      Speaking of DETROIT WINGS Ahead, Tigers Tied… Stay Cued, and Rite NICE Night, in GRAND RAPIDS !! ; -)

  26. Jack says:

    BIG DDDDDDD update WINGS TIED 4 2 4 in the 3rd. TIGERS ahead 6 2 3 in thee 14th…Go Red Wings !! Go Tigers !

  27. Jack says:

    Dddddddddddd “……..TIGERS WIN 7 to 3 !! Wings Ready to drop the PUCK…4 OT……GO RED WINGS !!!!!

  28. Jack says:

    WWWWWWIIIIIINNNNNNNGGGGGGSSSSSS. WWWWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNN!!!!! In OT…5-4 !! See Ya at the JOE saturday NIGHT!!!!!!! :-)

  29. Skot says:

    Where is fixxxer???? during this wave of HEAT.

    1. Jack says:

      Lol….Working….MAYBE ?? His wrist hasn’t been here in awhile either…hmmmmm Keep the warmth coming billly bob.. ;-)

  30. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    Be happy you live in Michigan today.

    Here’s what Wisconsin has:
    http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=WI&searchType=WEATHER

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