Mid-Month Cool Down

May 5th, 2013 at 4:16 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Tulip Time Carnival - Gary at Report It   I’ve mentioned the possibility of a mid-month cool down and chance of frost for a couple weeks now…mostly based on the pattern this spring and the large amount of cold air/snow cover across much of Canada.  The Great Lakes are on the chilly side, too.  The mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a water tempereature of 41.4F, an air temperature of 44.6F and a north wind at 13 mph.    I just looked at the European model.  It takes the 850mb temperature in G.R. to -2.7C on the 12th, with morning surface temperatures in the low-mid 30s.  The GFS has a high/low of 48/33 on the 12th.  Bottom line – beware of planting frost sensitive flowers and vegetables unless you can cover them up.  Anything that can take a little frost can certainly go in now.   At 4 PM Sunday PM, the beach temperatures at the S. Haven Lighthouse is 73.9 with an east wind.  At the beach in Muskegon, a NW lake-breeze has developed, with the temperature falling from 72.4 to 56.6 between 2 and 3 PM.  The temperature on the beach in downtown Chicago is 46.5 with an east wind at 19 mph – a pretty chilly day for early May.   Showers have stopped the race at Talledaga, where the temperature is a chilly 51 (20 degrees colder in northern Alabama than it is here in W. Michigan!  24-hr. rainfall:  3.08 Greenville SC, 2.83″ Atlanta, 2.28″ Chattanooga, 2.93″ Jacksonville FL. Record low temperatures were set in at least 6 states this morning with a very cold 31 at Fayetteville AR.  For the 11th – Riverbank Run – the GFS shows 50 degrees at racetime with a chance of a light shower (no lightning).  The European would be dry and low-mid 50s (so, be optimistic at this point).  For the afternoon Musikparade in Holland on the 11th…the models say mid 50s with a cool breeze off Lake Michigan.  Both models would have a chance of a light shower…but only a chance.  Here’s today’s MODIS Great Lakes image.   The picture here is the Tulip Time Carnival from Gary at Reportit.   Here’s the picture full screen.

18 Responses to “Mid-Month Cool Down”

  1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Man, I was hoping not to have to go through another cold spell this spring. It’s been great the past several days, although Thursday and Friday turned very cool both afternoons.

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Warm here, cold most everywhere else so far this month….

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m
    So far for CONUS, month-to-date (May) has started off about 4.5°F below last 30-year average, whopping 10°F less than 2012.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Right.

      Last year was the 27th consecutive year with an above average global temperature and the ninth warmest year on record. I haven’t seen the global data from April 2013 yet, but the first three months were all warmer than average.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        April globally was above average, but only by 1/10th of a degree. I don’t buy the faux “adjusted” temperatures and keep in mind that even Hansen has admitted the warming has stopped:

        “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

        The IPCC computer models are, in the words of Dr. Judith Curry, “deeply flawed”.

  3. Mike M. says:

    Bastardi agrees…

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/331090209099902976

    Please, no Pinatubos now.

  4. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    I noticed something cool today. La Crosse Wisconsin with no snow cover was at 70 degrees when I looked at mid day today. At the same time with 9 inches of snow cover in Rochester Minnesota it was only 58. Escanaba got up to 72 today with all sun! At the same time Marquette airport was only 52. Still some snow left up in the Copper country.

  5. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    Rochester now reports 62. Also 70 in Iron Mountain and only 43 at the same time at Sawyer airport just south of Marquette. I did notice for the first time this spring today the trees are showing some leaves starting to come out just west of town.

  6. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    Anyone notice in the Twin Lakes U.P. cam there is still alot of snow left and there is somebody standing in the cam next to the snowman waving lol.

  7. INDY says:

    Highs in the 50′s are done sorry NWS must out with thee Sparkey tree 12th -17th of May will have highs in the mids 70s and INDY shine! Fat term everyday even our severe storms are gone fishing till about June bug or so sit back grab a sprite and drink on whats right coming !!!! Bill INDY says high…….Stay tuned INDYY……

  8. Barb says:

    Temp. up here in Cheboygan fluctuated this afternoon/evening between 62-70 depending on if you’re away from the lake. Tonight is pretty chilly.

  9. AlleganJoe says:

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=49010

    This forecast is quite diff-from WOTV Weather…I tend to believe channel-8 forecast. The above one seems to be mistaken-perhaps a wishful-hopeful thinking-?? :)

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    It looks like a good mid month cool down just in time for the “three chilly saints” I would think that this year I will wait until late May before planting the tomato garden. My target right now is around the 25th give or take a day or two. I have to say its been nice that last few days it will just be too bad if it gets real cold yet again! And do not be too surprised if parts of Michigan pick up some more snow mid month.
    SlimJim

  11. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Looks like a day, maybe two, around 60 for me and then right back to the mid 70′s. Loving this weather!

  12. Terry says:

    The ECMWF model is still forecasting the latest, greatest Arctic cold air shot ever for next week for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northern Plains and parts of the East. It even showed flurries down to Dixie!

    1. Nathan says:

      Dont say that please!! Not looking foreward to MORE cold after last February’s brutal cold blast

    2. Cort S. says:

      I was very worried a day or two ago when the Euro showed -10 Celsius at 850 mb. That would have been awful. Now it has backed off on that somewhat, bringing temps up to -2 C. Still a cold snap, but not bad. And I am comforted by how fast it wants to bring the warm air back. It quickly brings 850 mb temperatures back to 16 to 18 C, which would put surface temperatures back into the 80s Fahrenheit next week. I hope this pans out.

      1. Nathan says:

        Yea becuase maybe a few thunderstorms could be in the equation as well of the highs reach 80 degrees next week after the annoying coldshot… But we shouldnt be complaining! Just look at the states around us

  13. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    Ugh. Do not want.

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