Thursday – KinderparadeMay 9th, 2013 at 1:19 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The 2nd of the 3 big Tulip Time Parades is this afternoon at 2 PM. It’s the Kinderparade. The chance of rain is not zero, but it’s pretty small. We’ll start the day partly sunny and cool, but clouds will roll in and we’ll get rain Thurs. night into at least Friday AM. The NAM (caribou) overnight model run keeps most of us dry during the day today, with afternoon rainfall forecasts of 0.01″ for Lansing, Jackson and Big Rapids, 0.04″ for Mt. Pleasant and 0.07″ for Jackson. The model gives these forecast rainfall totals for Thurs. night/Friday: 1.35″ Lansing, 1.31″ Grand Rapids, 1.24″ S. Haven, 1.13″ Holland, 0.99″ Pontiac, o.78″ Mt. Pleasant, 0.74″ Kalamazoo, 0.72″ Jackson, 0.53″ Muskegon, 0.47″ Ludington, 0.38″ Big Rapids and 0.28″ Cadillac. For Saturday the model gives all stations measurable rainfall, but everyone (except Cadillac at 0.11″) is less than a tenth of an inch. the rain comes after the RiverBank Run. The race looks dry with perfect temps., starting in the upper 40s and heading into the 50s as the morning progresses. The model prints out 0.04″ of rain for Holland around the start of the Musikparade (2 PM) Saturday. It looks like a quick shower and done. It will be breezy and a bit chilly at the Saturday parade. The NAM takes the wind at Holland up to a maximum of 22 mph at 2 PM with the wind diminishing a bit after that. That’ll make it tough to put the balloons in the parade. The model really brings in the cold air, with the model taking G.R. to 31.5 deg. Sunday AM…(lakeshore areas hold around 36 deg. with a wind off the lake). Monday still looks like the coldest morning to me with Frost and Freeze Advisories/Warnings likely. The GFS (caribou) gives G.R. 0.89″ starting around 2 PM. I think that’s too fast. That model gives Lansing 0.66″, Muskegon 0.90″, Kalamazoo 0.49″, Jackson 0.66″, Pontiac 1.15″, Big Rapids 1.57″, Mt. Pleasant 1.38″, Cadillac 0.78″ and Ludington 0.72″. It keeps most of the area dry on Saturday. The model gives G.R. a low of 35 Sunday AM and 29 Monday AM. The European has less rain, with only 0.18″ for G.R. Thurs. night, 0.01′ Sat., 0.01″ Sunday. Thursday night the European model has more rain as you go south: 0.24″ Holland, 0.37″ Kalamazoo, 0.62″ Sturgis, only 0.09″ Big Rapids. It takes our temperature down to freezing Monday AM, briefly, but warms us up into at least the mid 70s Tues. PM. Picture by “raven.042″ at ReportIt.
Also, Hoist Basin in the U.P. is down to their last inch of snow on the ground on average…that should melt this PM. There will still be piles and I’m sure there will be pockets of snow on the north slopes in the conifer trees that will linger for another week or two.