Storms Tuesday

May 20th, 2013 at 9:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Radar at the top of the blog for the showers/storms the next couple days.    Showers and storms moving into W. Illinois should reach our area after 2 AM.  At 10:25 PM, there is a tornado watch out for Western Illinois and a Severe T-Storm Watch for northeast IL and southeast WI.    More from GRR NWS.   The greatest threat will be isolated wind damage.  The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. 1.92″ of rain between Mon. and Thurs. night.  Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.  We have a chance of at least isolated storms for  Tuesday and Wednesday in Lower Michigan.   Use the links below and in the next couple threads to keep up with the weather.  Watch for updates on WOOD-TV.   For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures.  Links for watches and warnings in the thread below this one.

61 Responses to “Storms Tuesday”

  1. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Although I think it is a bit too hot, it has been nice to get out and sail!
    My guess is not many of you follow cycling like me but the weather in Europe has been brutally cold. They were climbing through a snow storm in the Giro d’Italia yesterday… crazy.

  2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Hey all,

    Been looking at some of the short range models. HRRR shows several rounds of storms across the area between 2PM and Midnight.

    Most notably would be the latest 12z HRRR which spawns a couple of severe storms at 2PM and then again around 4.

    We’ll have to see what comes about, but I don’t think lack of instability will be a factor today.
    Reply

    1. Cort S. says:

      Indeed, we have a lot of instability today. More than we’ll have tomorrow or Wednesday.

      Since these storms are surface-based, we’ll have to watch out for Lake Michigan’s influence. Lakeshore areas may have less of a chance of significant thunderstorms than the inland areas. But if the wind direction is more from the south than from the west, it may keep the lakeshore areas more unstable than usual, especially south of Holland.

      For anyone curious, click here for an animation of the 12Z HRRR model.

  3. INDY says:

    Harry get your car away from the tree out front…Winds are going to be a factor with hail and a tornadoe or 2 this afternoon INDYS sweet spot is 4-7 we all seem to agree on that sofar ! Check out them mean green storms in Missouri moving north…Up to 80* now out thee YARDofBRICKS we have the heat we have the meat now we just need a thunder treet!! Stay tuned INDYY…

    1. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

      i hope that you get sucked up into these tornados you’re predicting.

  4. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

    Watching the clouds clearing to our SW, things will be heating up this afternoon.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gl/flash-vis.html

    It’d be my luck Holland would get storms via a south wind, while I am working in GR. :) That 12Z HRRR model run is very interesting.

  5. Cort S. says:

    Instability (CAPE) is very high over Michigan and Indiana. Not very high over Wisconsin and Illinois. Shear is not the best, so individual storm cells may be disorganized, even if strong. Individual storm cell movement will be out of the SW at about 35 mph. If the local wind fields can allow a lake breeze front to develop, with convergent winds at the surface, I think there’s a good chance that storms would form along that lake breeze once a mid-level impulse arrives.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

    1. Nathan says:

      A midlevel impulse? Could anyone define that please, thanks! Just curious on how storms develop

      1. Cort S. says:

        A small-scale disturbance, a wave (trough) or a jet speed maximum in the middle-upper atmosphere. It helps create a slow rising motion in the low-middle atmosphere, which helps erode the cap and increase instability from above.

        Down at the ground, the heating of the air near the ground will increase instability from below, and any convergent wind fields like a lake breeze front can help trigger storms by pushing the hot low-level air up through the cap.

        Where and when these two things coincide is the place you expect thunderstorm initiation to most likely occur.

  6. Aaron says:

    Getting pretty dark in Grand Haven all of a sudden.

    1. Aaron says:

      A crack of thunder!

      1. Cort S. says:

        You’ve got the first storm cell of the day. Cell tops to 30,000 feet. The first indication of it on radar was at noon, with rain forming aloft. Now it’s producing lightning less than 20 minutes later. That was quick. More storm cells this afternoon will form very quickly, and possibly go severe.

    2. John (Holland) says:

      Congrats, you guys are getting the first popup thunderstorm. It’s a little thing but should pack a punch.

      I love days like today. Reminds me of Florida and the popup storms that are common there.

  7. INDY says:

    Checking in on that storm in Grand Haven could come severe with heavy wind and rain 4 sure getting stronger…..Stay tuned INDYY..

  8. INDY says:

    Track Beton Harbor out looking like some more cells getting going!!INDYY..

  9. Cort S. says:

    Scattered rapid storm development happening now over Lake Michigan. These storm updrafts are just exploding through the cap. There’s nothing to stop that Grand Haven thunderstorm from strengthening further. I wonder if it’ll go severe by the time it reaches Newaygo county.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Can we expect some boomers in Holland, given the cell that’s hitting Grand Haven? Or will this be mostly an inland event?

      1. Cort S. says:

        The chance of strong storms in Holland and most other lakeshore areas is less than inland.

  10. INDY says:

    THUNDER STORM WATCH COMING FOR CENTRAL MICHIGAN!!! INDYY..

    1. Cort S. says:

      You’re right, INDY! A watch will likely be issued in the next hour!
      http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1305201634.acus11.html

  11. INDY says:

    Newaygo take cover it’s coming!! INDYY..

  12. Cort S. says:

    DISCUSSION…STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER MI WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F…CONTRIBUTING TO ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A RIBBON OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A LARGE NRN PLAINS TROUGH WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI. AS THIS INTERSECTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NEAR THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI…TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP. MODERATELY STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO INITIATING LINE SHOULD PROMOTE MULTIPLE CELL INTERACTIONS INITIALLY…BEFORE CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS OR A QLCS OCCURS. THIS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI…POSING A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS…ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0725.html

  13. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Interesting how grr only has the rain chance at 20%

    1. Cort S. says:

      Your chances in Albion are fairly low until later in the afternoon, when chances go up a little bit:
      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.24404&lon=-84.76638793945312&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

      The best storm coverage this afternoon should be in central and northern Michigan.

  14. blharr44 says:

    the storm down by Benton Harbor just doesn’t want to get going :-(

  15. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20130725/

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1134 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

    AREAS AFFECTED…LOWER MI

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 201634Z – 201730Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
    AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN LOWER MI…AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND
    SPREAD EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
    INITIAL THREAT OF DMGG WIND GUSTS…LARGE HAIL…AND PERHAPS A
    BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY REMAINS
    SEMI-DISCRETE…BUT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO PRIMARILY A DMGG WIND THREAT
    WITH TIME. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

    DISCUSSION…STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER MI WITHIN A
    MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
    60S F…CONTRIBUTING TO ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A
    RIBBON OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A LARGE NRN PLAINS TROUGH WAS
    NOTED ON WATER VAPOR MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI. AS THIS INTERSECTS
    WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NEAR THE
    ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI…TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP. MODERATELY
    STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ORIENTED NEARLY
    PARALLEL TO INITIATING LINE SHOULD PROMOTE MULTIPLE CELL
    INTERACTIONS INITIALLY…BEFORE CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS OR A
    QLCS OCCURS. THIS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI…POSING A
    PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS…ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO
    EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.

    ..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/20/2013

    …PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT…

    ATTN…WFO…DTX…APX…IWX…GRR…

    LAT…LON 42648280 42158325 41898399 41758500 42018579 42928620
    43848603 44748600 45378534 45668491 45698433 45308361
    43938284 42648280

  16. Cort S. says:

    Here is the tornado that Chuck saw in Kansas on Saturday:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2z9vZRJ6NM

    1. fixxxer says:

      Chuck went down there becuase we dont get any good storms here anymore. Hes smart.

  17. dereks says:

    THUNDER STORM WATCH CWA

  18. Jeff (Richland) says:

    I hope this isn’t a bust…my lawn is looking crispy!

  19. fixxxer says:

    more hype, i bet we get nothing and it gets canceled. they were better off not issuing anything, at least that way we would get a storm. happens everytime.

    1. Cort S. says:

      So can we consider you to be officially un-quit from the blog? May as well stop pretending.

      1. dereks says:

        I live in northeast Montcalm county. Do you think we will get some new development over this way?

      2. INDY says:

        lol……INDYY..

    2. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

      Just like yesterday in Shawnee, OK. I’m sure the residents of that town were really bothered by the sirens going off at least 15 minutes early, and the Moderate risk outlook too. Hype. That’s funny.

    3. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

      HE’S BACK!?!?!?

  20. INDY says:

    Hey Dereks look out to your west more storms are poping …INDYY..

  21. Shae (Greenville) says:

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (10%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low ( 65 knots
    Low (10%)

    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (30%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (30%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (80%)

    Based on the bottom number, seems like they expect something to happen in the watch area, but nothing more than low level severe.

  22. Shae says:

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (10%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low ( 65 knots
    Low (10%)

    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (30%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (30%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (80%)

    Based on the bottom number, seems like they expect something to happen in the watch area, but nothing more than low level severe.

    As long as nothing happens to prevent me from seeing the Wings beat up on the Blackhawks this evening, I say bring it on!

  23. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWWAAK! Hope it’s not too severe, else I’ll be laying stress-induced eggs for sure!

  24. Cort S. says:

    The latest HRRR model (click here) is still going for more storm development after 2:00. The eastern half or eastern two-thirds of Michigan have the best chance of thunderstorms. As talked about earlier, the closer you are to Lake Michigan, the less chance of storms you have.

    1. Ryan (Portage) says:

      Remember the HRRR is relatively new and very experimental and in this case changes a lot from run to run. I’m not convinced we will see too much crazy weather this afternoon, we just need the sun to stay out so conditions will be better in the evening. Stay tuned

  25. INDY says:

    HAMMER down 35 takes around thee YARDofBRICKS ready or not to pick up sticks on whats coming……WIND HAIL AND TWISTERS weather radios should be on ..Stay tuned …..INDYY..

  26. kentwoodchicken says:

    Cluckity-cluck Indy! You sound ready! Do you have all of your feathers numbered?

  27. jim from Delton says:

    Warning for Grand TRaverse County….let the fun begin!

  28. INDY says:

    KentChicken, INDY is always ready!!!! STAY CLUCKED….INDYY.

  29. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! That’s reassuring, Indy. Keep your feathers dry! I’ll inform all when it’s time to run in panic circles and squwak!

  30. Cort S. says:

    Surface-Based CAPE is 3500 J/kg and Mixed-Layer CAPE is 3000 J/kg in south-central Lower Michigan. Tons of instability right now. Just need a trigger. If you want to chase good storms, head toward Lansing or Mount Pleasant.

    1. blharr44 says:

      Is there any chance for something in the Kalamazoo area or are we just to close to the lake?

  31. Shae says:

    Are we expecting the storms that have already developed to be the only line to come through, or will there be re-development later?

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Storms are supposed to pop up due to daytime heat over the next few hours, but it seems it’ll be spotty on the west half of the LP.

      Based on what I’ve seen, the entire area will see rain later in the day/evening, but on the whole it won’t be severe.

  32. Cort S. says:

    1:55 PM — Here is the radar image of the severe thunderstorm warning storm cell in Mecosta County.
    http://i.imgur.com/N6QnMAZ.png
    Radar image 1:55 PM

    1. Shae says:

      2 rotation signatures on the Weather Underground radar for this storm!

  33. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

    NO CHASING STROMS UNTIL 5PM!!! I dont wana miss anything good while setting at work. Could get pretty interesting later.

  34. Nathan says:

    Nice storm just to my west, huge towering clouds! I dont see any lightning though… But thays ok because Im about to walk home and then go to the dentist :p

  35. mart says:

    lots of rain wind and hail just roared thru eastown

  36. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    nonstop thunder here, but very little lightning visible. Probably look awesome at night. .08 rainfall and down to 71

  37. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Dew point down 64 from 68 earlier. Looks like most of the action will be north of I-96.

    Southward development is not happening anymore with the cluster of storms near GRR. Looks like we may stay high and dry, but ATLEAST if something pushes some sort of outflow boundary into any area this evening, a storm or two could evolve, leading to upscale growth due to higher than expect parameters due to the lack of earlier convection/clouds.

    I think GRR handled it well with isolated storms this evening, ending by midnight. The severe thunderstorm watch may be canceled down here early, but if ANY sort of a boundary is moving in our direction, which there is, they may hold onto it until 8.

    I bet the line fills in East of Jackson and blasts Detroit this evening.

  38. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

    You cracked me up Bill when you came on air this afternoon (Monday) to announce a weather situation….your hair was down in your face and you just brushed it out of your face and said you hadn’t had time to comb your hair….I love it! Time for another haircut maybe? Having your hair in your face like that just made you look younger! ;)

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