Chance of Severe Storms

May 27th, 2013 at 7:15 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook  This is the current Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 severe t-storm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. After a quiet few days, things are going to get more interesting, with several chances for strong to even severe storms this week.  If things get rolling, they may have to bump up N. KS, S. NE and maybe NW MO and SW IA into a moderate risk for today.  Part of that area has seen a lot of rain.  The west side of Sioux City IA had 6.6″ of rain and Grinnell, IA had 5.7″.  Here’s what SPC says about Tues. PM:  “POSSIBILITY FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES.”

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map.

Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

RED WINGS WIN, 4-1. They have a 2-1 game lead on Chicago heading into game 3.

68 Responses to “Chance of Severe Storms”

  1. As I was afraid of the heavy rain forecast is shifting eastward, we have to much moisture already. 10.62 inches here in Breckenridge since April 6th.

  2. fixxxer says:

    lol…. and here we go again!

  3. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Have a good Memorial Day, Bill. Hope you’re having a good one. Looking forward to watching how the weather unfolds this week.

  4. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Cool and cloudy. I’ll take this over 90′s any day.

    1. fixxxer says:

      speak for yourself brian. its a miserable day. think of how much money the lake front business and beaches loose on days like this.

      1. Pooker says:

        He was speaking for himself, and so am I when I say I totally disagree with him, give me 90s & sun all day long!

      2. Rich says:

        @ fixxxer…the correct word is lose not loose.

        1. fixxxer says:

          go play grammar nazi somewhere else.

        2. Skot says:

          Go Blog-jack somewhere else finssster.

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Bright sun still hanging on and 65 degrees here. Go Tigers and Wings!

    1. fixxxer says:

      WOW a whole whopping 65?

      1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

        I just broke down and ran the furnace to get back up to 66. :(

        1. fixxxer says:

          as ive been saying, it reminds me of 2009 to a tee.

      2. Rich says:

        Pretty negative aren’t we? You must be a fun person to be around.

        1. fixxxer says:

          sorry but unlike a few of you i dislike this kind of weather. i dont just roll with the flow.

      3. Jack says:

        Fixxxxer …….. ” HYPE”….. Again… Holy Crap…STAY Cued, and take a chill Pill… Geezzzzzz…. ;-)

  6. Joel says:

    A set up similar to the Derecho if 1998. I was thinking this for 2 days now

  7. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Loving this weather for running. SO much more pleasant than last year!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Speak for yourself micheal but I wouldn’t call this pleasant. Lol

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I dont run but I do walk ever day and this weekend up in Bay City while te temps were nice and cool and made for nice walking the Mosquitoes made the walk somewhat less enjoyable.
      SlimJim

  8. I’m looking forward to it. I got my fix last weekend with all the tornadoes. You can check those blogs out here.

    May 18, 2013 Tornadoes (including Rozel, KS EF-4) http://cistormedia.com/kansas-tornado-fest-5-tornadoes-51813/

    May 19, 2013 http://cistormedia.com/kansas-tornadoes-supercells-and-mammatus/

    What an awesome couple of days.

  9. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Potential for Strong to Severe Storms Tuesday into Tuesday Night

    What to look for:

    - Chances for storms as early as Tuesday morning rolling in from the west.

    - Better chances for storms during the afternoon and evening hours some of which may be severe.

    - Storm threats Tuesday include strong/damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rains.

    - An isolated Tornado cannot be ruled out, but instability (lift in the atmosphere) may not be quite strong enough.

    - Highest likelihood for storms and severe weather will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

    Overview:

    The potential exists for strong to severe storms to move through Southwest Lower Michigan from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southwest Lower Michigan in a threat area for severe weather during this time. Severe weather is not a sure thing as of Monday Afternoon however, as the evolution of storms tonight in the plains could affect our chances for storms and severe weather on Tuesday.

    A couple of scenarios exist in the evolution of storms through Tuesday night. A complex of storms is expected to refire tonight across portions of Nebraska and Kansas. These storms will lift east-northeast across Iowa toward the Southern Great Lakes tonight. This complex of storms may move into Southern Lower Michigan during the morning and midday hours. These storms could reintensify as they move in and provide a threat for severe weather, especially damaging winds. A second and more likely scenario would have storms diminishing over Iowa and Illinois late tonight into Tuesday morning, which may provide greater chances for severe weather later in the day here in Southwest Lower Michigan. In this scenario, daytime heating and a strong push of moisture from the south may allow storms to develop over or near the Southern Great Lakes lifting north and east with time during the afternoon and evening.

    The ingredients that look to come together tomorrow include a warm front lifting north through the area which will provide a focus for thunderstorms. In addition, a stream of moisture off of the gulf will be flowing into the region along with stronger winds aloft that will aid in storm longevity.

    Links:

    National Radar Loop

    Day One Severe Weather Outlook (Today/Tonight)

    Day Two Severe Weather Outlook (Tuesday/Tuesday Night)

    Return to Latest News

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Back home now after our trip up to Bay City. I have to say I was surprised as to how much water and flooding there still was around Bay City and Midland. Many fields were flooded as well as several of the small rivers. And tons of Mosquitoes. You can see the Mosquitoes form you car as you drive along the road. And when we left the restaurant after dinner last night they (the Mosquitoes) were all over the car waiting for us. LOL But other then all of the mud and water and Mosquitoes it was a nice but cool weekend up there. Had a good time.
    SlimJim

  11. snowsearch says:

    Thermometer says about 50 here at Gun Lake. Got the boats & dock in the water anyway. Gotta love Memorial Day in Michigan:)

    1. fixxxer says:

      no actually i don’t, not at all.

      1. Jack says:

        Then MOVE to..Moron Land !!! See Ya…Fix….. ; -)

        1. fixxxer says:

          Excuse me? Go take your “cues” somewhere else.

        2. fixxxer says:

          And yes i was joking but stil. I dont sit here and degrade you so keep your cues to yourself! ;)

          Today sucked…end of

        3. Jack says:

          Lol…..Works every time !!! Stay Cued…. ;-)

      2. Barb says:

        Fixxer–if you must blog negativity, please use proper grammar…yes, I am the grammar police.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Im sorry should i stay positive for you barb? And its grammar nazi..not police.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Got our pontoon and docks in the water – yay!! But the grandkids wanted to go kneeboarding – I drew the line with air temps in the mid-50′s….LOL! Poor little kids would be hypothermic after one lap!!

      1. snowsearch says:

        There will be better days for that, although boat traffic was light:)

  12. fixxxer. says:

    I apologize for being such an a$$ to everyone on this forum. My negative attitude can be traced back to being dropped on my head as an infant. Carry on folks.

  13. Cliff (Scotts) says:

    Anyone else notice how fox 17 is all new wow lol still won’t beat woodtv

  14. INDY says:

    Just 3 more summers and Fixxer will go off the deep end again 4 a month from Bills blog!! Weather 90′s and severe Decheo’s are a coming…Stay tuned INDYY….

    1. fixxxer says:

      Theres no storms or 90′s coming. And im not sure what you mean by going off the deep end.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        From “never coming back” to nearly half the comments on the blog… Classic fixxxxxx

  15. Jack says:

    No excuse 4 Ya…Fix…CUE, CUE, Cocochacuuuu…..Spin :::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP6npFTbtUM. Lol… ;-)

  16. mr. negative says:

    Another 50 degree, windy, wet Memorial Day…as we remain storm free.

  17. DF (SE Mich) says:

    A steady rain almost all day in A2… We needed it!

    Detroit only made it to 61 today, a cold one.

    Go Red Wings!!!!!!!

  18. Tim Bright says:

    Bill or INDY: what time you think the warm front will move through just north of Grand Rapids?

  19. INDY says:

    Tim warm front rolls in over night by 11am tomorrow we will be in thee mid 70s and muggy with severe storms across the lk…Should be a rock rack and crack storm track….Stay tuned….INDYY…..

    1. Jack says:

      Eye, Eye…Captain ….INDY ….Stay Cued…. Peace… GO…. RED-WINGS!!!!

  20. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    The storms development (or lack thereof) will be determined by the timing of the storms and the amount of sunshine/ heat we get tomorrow! Hope we get a good light show! (could go without strong winds and DEFINITELY tornadoes)

    1. fixxxer says:

      Sounds like hype to me. You know the drill mike. It will be a cloudy day from the get go.

      1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

        probably, but here’s to wishful thinking :D

    2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      The last three times the NWS said “the more sunshine, the more instability”… We indeed achieved more instability, but lack thereof storms.

      With this situation, being that there is a warm front pushing into the area, for a good storm or training of storms, we want that warm front to stick around for a while. As soon as that warm front pushes north of the area, so does the “area” of storms.

      I believe we have a decent shot st severe weather tomorrow over portions of the area. If that warm front can muster reaching just north of I96, a MCS could develop over WI and head along that warm front right into our area. Again, this is best case scenario.

      The other scenario would be a typical shower with embedded thunder throughout the day on and off for much of the area, before clearing by evening with temperatures sitting in the 60s.

      This is why I love weather, it’s ALWAYS changing and challenging.

  21. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Honestly I do hope we get some rack em stack em, thunderstorms tomorrow this week to track and make it exciting and worth wild, I need to keep my mind off this house and the crap that I still have yet to do, like music to get you motivated I need some good cracks of thunder and deep soul rumbles of thunder as long as lightning doesn’t strike my house catching it on fire or my tree doesn’t come tumbling down for clean up, I’ve had enough of both this past 1 1/2wks.

    1. fixxxer says:

      You know the drill swatz.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        You don’t need to remind me, I’ve been around long enough to know.

        1. fixxxer says:

          No reason to get nippy.

  22. Barb says:

    I was quite surprised when I was coming back from Cheboygan today. It was sunny and pleasant up there. The further I came south, the colder and cloudier it got.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Welcome to grand rapids

  23. INDY says:

    Is That Thunder Outside Or Fixxer Breaking Wind Over Us!!!!INDYY….

  24. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    if these clouds don’t clear out we won’t get much thunder just rain I’m not really feeling it, maybe I still got smoke in my eyes and in the YardOfDucks pool water, just can’t see it happening. I know a cue as jack would say! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUwEIt9ez7M

    1. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      I feel the same way you do Swatz. The plus side is if the humidity goes through the roof, the clouds will help keep it cooler and more tolerable. That’s the way I’m looking at it today. As much as I love some wind and lightning, I’m gonna go with more comfortable today. There is plenty of hot sun and high humidity to come this summer.

  25. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! Feathers all wet. !

  26. Nathan says:

    All eyes to our west as the system hopefully strengthens. We need this rain to clear out ASAP!

  27. kevin. w says:

    WOW after reading all the comments on here on think fixxer needs to make sure he takes his CHILL PILLS. Come on fix you lived in Michigan long enough and should know by now that the weather is what it is and theres nothing we can do about it. HEY at least its not snowing, right. I was up in the U.P. one year back in the late 90s in June on a pontoon boat when we actually had snowflakes falling. Just enjoy life dude its short enough as it is, and be positive its not that hard.

    1. fixxxer says:

      I have a life and am happy kevin. Just hate michigan weather. Two seperate things. But thanks for your concern.

  28. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Agreed! I just went through a small house fire and was unable to live here for over a week and just got in this weekend with A LOT more stuff to do, so yes enjoy life and what it offers, the good, the bad, the ugly, some days I admit it’s hard but it’s what you make of it. I could be on my up most pity pot with all that took place but my house is still standing, I have my life and children’s lives still, my pets are all still alive, I’m thankful even with this crappastic weather as you would put it because I woke up alive yet another day look at the people of Oklahoma, just keep a stiff upper lip and even if you have to fake being positive, fake it until you make it!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Nice line coming into my area with a nice crack of thunder to let me know
      :-)

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Sorry to hear of your misfortune ;(…that said, keep up the positive attitude– as i heard SOOOOOOO many folks in OK repeatedly praise/thank God & count blessings for what they did have…vs. what was lost.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Wow, Swatz – glad everything worked out! That must have been WAY scary (my son had their woodburner set their roof on fire early Easter morning – they’re still waiting to get back in).

  29. kalamazooguy says:

    Hey all, good to be back. Been in Florida too long. Boy did we get some storms down there though.

    Anyway, sun is shining down here at the Kalamazoo Airport and boy is the humidity and temp going up. Models are showing some Severe Potential and Rotating Storm potential building into Illinois right now where some storms are beginning to fire. That will track this way and conditions are starting to favor that here as well.

    What’s the weather like elsewhere? It’s Michigan so it’s probably different up in GR than it is here.

  30. fixxxer says:

    Failure..

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