HIGH RISK AREA!!!

June 12th, 2013 at 11:57 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

accumulated rainfallThe Storm Prediction Center is upgrading to a very rare HIGH RISK AREA for tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms!  (It was only a moderate risk for the Oklahoma tornadoes).   SPC says:  “THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA…AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. IN ADDITION…TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DISCUSSION…SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES…POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT…WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST-MOVING AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA…WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.”

Click on the map to enlarge.  This is accumulated rainfall over the past week.   Trees are more apt to be uprooted in strong wind when the ground is saturated.  Note where the heavy rain has fallen in SW Michigan and across N. Illinois and N. Indiana.  Those are areas that will be more susceptible to toppling trees.   Right now, if you’re in N. Illinois, N. Indiana, W. Ohio or extreme SW or S. Michigan – think about where to park your vehicles so any tree damage can be minimized.  Take down hanging baskets, make sure the yard is picked up and the garbage bin won’t go flying down the street.  For those of you esp. in N. Illinois and far NE Iowa…remember the tornado safety rules….Lowest Floor, Away from Windows – esp. windows that face south and west, try to avoid getting caught in a vehicle on the open road.

31 Responses to “HIGH RISK AREA!!!”

  1. Ray says:

    Could get interesting!

  2. Jerry hoag says:

    Very interesting!! Mother nature is ready!!

  3. Jerry hoag says:

    DERECHO TIME!!!

    1. Russ C. says:

      Looking at the latest convective outlook from the SPC, I would certainly agree with that assessment Jerry. The tornado threat is substantial in northern Illinois but once those storms form that line, oh boy. I think the potential for a derecho is higher than the tornado potential.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        And…a derecho would impact a much larger area than even a significant tornado outbreak.

        1. Russ C. says:

          Agreed Bill. Derechos are just nasty and they cover great distances. Hopefully it won’t be a repeat of June 1998.

    2. Ray says:

      Or the one on June 29-30 2012.

  4. INDY says:

    TORNADO TIME!!!!

  5. Nathan says:

    I hope everyone down there follows the rules and stays safe. It is no fun and games when your lives are at risk, and thats exactly what could happen this afternoon for areas in OH. I am hoping that my area still sees some action, but no tornadoes please!

  6. INDY says:

    MOD RISK COMING 4 WEST MICHIGAN….STAY TUNED INDYY..

    1. Crayfish (Sparta) says:

      Everything south of Kent County as usual.

    2. Ray says:

      It’s possible!

  7. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Of course its all staying south of us in in GR :(

  8. cliff(kzoo) says:

    well the high risk goes into Michigan, I would say where the bottom three counties on the border our at, should be interesting day down to the south. Maybe for all of west Michigan up to G.R. is in the slight. Never know what could happen.

  9. SP says:

    Sooo….my “battening of hatches” in the Kzoo/I-94 corridor area might not be for nothing this time?

  10. INDY says:

    VERRY HEAVY WIND TORNADOS AND FLOODS ARE COMING MAKE A LIST NOW FLASH LIGHTS WEATHER RADIOS FOOD SPRITES BRITE LIGHTS, PICK UP THEE YARD NOWS THEE TIME WHAT U GOING TO DO WHEN SIRENS BLOW OVER U!!! INDYY…

    1. Skot says:

      Well ya’ now Mean Gene……..WHAT U GOING TO DO WHEN SIRENS BLOW OVER U!!! INDYY…

  11. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Starting to get excited! Liking that HIGH RISK!!!

  12. Beth (Chicago) says:

    Last time I remember seeing a high risk area in this region was that late morning storm in mid/late October 2010…can anyone confirm/deny that? Definitely going to be a loud and interesting afternoon/evening here in Chicago! Any good safety recommendations for basement-less, high rise dwellers, other than inner room/lowest floor?

    1. Skot says:

      Enjoy Beth. We will be watching closely under the Comfort of our “Magic Bubble” here in West Michigan. LOL

    2. Ray says:

      Stay away from windows.

  13. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    I love all the HYPE!!!! Like any other time, GIANT BUBBLE keeps Storms to the South of MI line!!!!

    1. Skot says:

      JINX!!!!

  14. Amie says:

    Just about wet myself when I saw there was a high risk area and WHERE it was. I’m about ten miles from the high risk line, I”m in the moderate area, and my family lives in northern IN directly in the High Risk bullseye. Is this the first High risk this year? if not, there hasn’t been very many. I hope this time they are wrong like usual (for SW MI it seems they like to blow a lot of smoke this year and nothing happens…)

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Amie I to have family in Indiana, in areas of Ft. Wayne, Noblesville, Fisher, and Nashville. Friends in Il. ect. I don’t wish devastation on anyone, but I do hope we see strong storms at least.

  15. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    Back May i had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, no watches,no warnings, no slight risk, Boom!!! Tornado Sirens just a blowing!!! Now Tornado Warning, had a Tornado detected by Radar a few miles to my South. had a lot of high Winds!! With all the hype form NWS i expect nothing for lower MI!!!!!

  16. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    OH NO!!! Now i’m under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH !!!!! LOL!!!!!!!

  17. Marilyn (Grand Rapids, MI) says:

    I hope people pay heed and prepare ahead of time for the “worst.” We don’t need anymore horrific situations such as in Oklahoma. Better to be over prepared than under prepared.

  18. Kathy says:

    Huge funnel forming over Kentwood. Many layers rolling. Called 911!!!!!!

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