Severe Risk Weds. PM

June 12th, 2013 at 10:33 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook  Here’s NAM model precipitation…heaviest SW corner of Lower Michigan down into Indiana.  At 11 AM, warm front is Moline IL to Fort Wayne IN.  Watch for tornadoes as the storms start late aftn. along and just north of the front in N. Illinois.  Wind damage threat greatest nearer the front (so south of Holland to Ann Arbor).  Low 70s dew points south of the front.  Lots of fuel for the fire.    The 7:20 AM update from the Storm Prediction Center now has the Moderate Risk up to the Michigan-Indiana border.  The Moderate Risk covers much of IL, IN, OH.  The Slight Risk Area comes north to a line from Muskegon to Flint. The likelihood of a severe weather report within 25 miles of a single location in the moderate risk area is 45% for wind, 30% for hail and 10% for tornado.  Here’s SPC TORNADO RISK (highest in N. Illinois), DAMAGING WIND RISK (highest N. IL, N. IN, NW Ohio), and HAIL RISK (size of hail is always a concern, but wind-driven, smaller-size hail is also a concern…force = mass x velocity x velocity…the faster an object is traveling, the more force it has).   The Storm Prediction Center says:

“Widespread Damaging Winds…Large Hail and a Few Tornadoes Expected across a Large Area from Iowa to West Virginia.  Iowa, Illinois and S. Wisconsin Early Afternoon into Indiana, Ohio, N. Kentucky and far Southern Michigan during the Evening.  Increasing wind fields will favor a forward propagating convective system…possibly a DERECHO CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  Embedded areas of rotation may also exist periodically…indicating either TORNADOES or ENHANCED AREAS OF DAMAGE WIND POTENTIAL.  LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY, POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN.”   7:20 AM update:  “…Highest severe probabilities and the most significant severe weather potential still appears focused in a corridor across E. Central IA into N. Illinois late this afternoon, into N. Indiana and W. Ohio later tonight.” 


Accu-Weather talking about a DERECHO from Chicago to Pittsburgh#derecho on Twitter.

Here’s the RPM rainfall prediction, showing the t-storms getting north into the G.R. area.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map.   If I were storm chasing…I’d start along the MIssissippi south of Dubuque, north of Moline…then east along I-80 to NW Indiana…then to Fort Wayne to Findley OH.

Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

92 Responses to “Severe Risk Weds. PM”

  1. INDY says:

    6 OUT OF 10 TORCON IN CHITOWN TODAY!!! GOING TO BE A FUN AFTERNOON..INDDY!!

  2. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    Like always!!! All the action stays to the South!!……YAWN!!!!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I agree but I still got this feeling something is up mother natures sleeve, but I could be wrong I’m no expert just got that “feeling”, hopefully we’ll see at least strong storms.

  3. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

    WOW HIGH RISK GOING UP FOR ILLINOIS
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html

    1. INDY says:

      That should put Mod risk over West Michigan,,,, INDYY..

      1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

        I hope people stay safe down there.

  4. INDY says:

    Verry muggy outside we get some wind going and we will have Tornado weather!! Stay tuned….INDY!!!!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Hard to believe with the ingredients out there we may not see much action, I’ll be happy to see a strong storm, heart pounding, window shaking, chair jumping thunder.

  5. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I have friends and family in Ft. Wayne In, Fisher In, and a dear friend in Nashville In. So hopefully they will stay safe today/tonight

    1. Clara says:

      I have family in Fishers too…praying they safely weather this storm.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Also I have family in Noblesville, In. I guess they to are in the bulls eye. It is eerie quiet outside, radar shows rain but nothing is going on outside, will this decrease the instability this cloud cover? Sun was out earlier now it’s clouded over.

  6. Jerry hoag says:

    It feels like a very good storm is going to happen!! Mother Nature is ready to get happy on us!!

    DERECHOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    Muggy, warm, still feeling. All signs of very good storms!!

  7. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    I can feel it, (i think) :D i really hope we see some action!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I’ve been feeling this system for the past 4 days! To the point where I finally had to cave and take my RX strength pain meds my doctor gave me, so with all this pain I better at least see a strong storm!

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    For what its worth the watch dose not include Kent county.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0300.html

    SlimJim

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We are getting ready to get something to eat and off to the Griffins game. The sun is out between clouds here now and the temp in now up to 80° here at my house with a 68 DP.
    SlimJim

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