Long Range Thoughts and More

June 19th, 2013 at 2:16 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

jack martin daisy  Another great pic. here from Jack Martin.  Click on the pic. to enlarge.  Beautiful day today.  I may be doing weather live at the Van Andel for the big welcome home party for the Griffins.  Doors open at 5 PM, party starts at 6 PM.  Free t-shirts to the first 3,000 through the doors – cool.  It was chilly this AM – low temperatures:  47 G.R. and Kalamazoo, 46 Battle Creek, 44 Lansing, 42 Jackson, 41 at the agricultural stations near Belding and Ceresco, 40 at the ag. station in Lawrence, 39 Cadillac and Baldwin, 35 Grayling and Pellston, 33 at Leota in Clare Co.  Once again this morning there were below freezing temps. in the U.P.:  32 at Watton, 30 Champion, 29 at Doe Lake and a frosty 27 at Spincich Lake.  Including today, Grand Rapids will be about 1.8 degrees cooler than average for June so far.  I bet that gets erased as the warm, humid air moves in starting on Friday (tomorrow, Thurs., will still be near normal…high low 80s.  The period from Friday thru next week will be warm to hot and more humid.  It’s not impossible that 6/21 to about 7/2 could be the hottest stretch of the summer (I didn’t say that was a given, just that it’s possible).  The ridge/heat from Alaska builds down into the mainland U.S.  Much of the U.S. is going to be hot and humid for the last 10 days of June.   I do expect this ridge/heat build up to be temporary and not the pattern for the whole rest of the summer.  I think we revert around the 4th of July back to the ridge over the Rockies and WNW flow over the Great Lakes.  That will give us more average temperatures for much of July and opportunities for west-east or northwest to southeast moving thunderstorms.  At this point, I don’t think we’ll see as strong a dry period as we had last summer.   Severe weather stays west of us for the next couple days.   And, it’s never too early for meteorologist Joe Bastardi to get excited about winter weather.  A tweet from him this AM:  “Winter in the big 3 industrial areas of the far east, Europe and Eastern/central N America could be coldest since 1980s”.  He’s geeked about a weak El Nino in area 3.4 and winter troughs over the eastern U.S. Europe and China.  As I write this…some nice t-storms in N. Texas.  Check out the 1-day animation from the Barrow, Alaska skycam of the sun passing to the north (land of the midnight sun in June/July).

27 Responses to “Long Range Thoughts and More”

  1. DF (SE Mich) says:

    After all my complaining of the Flint weather station it made it within 1° of a record low today… cold morning out there!

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Good ‘ol Flint still +0.7 for June ha Wonder how high I’ll be a week from now.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Where are you getting your data from?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx

          Preliminary Monthly Climate Data, Select Flint, Select Go, Scroll down to Departure from Normal under Temps

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Thanks Travis. There’s all kinds of good stuff there.

  2. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I missed it yesterday but Marquette set another record low, that is six daily record low temperatures since April… Poor U’pers…

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
    418 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

    …RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING…

    THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE OFFICE WAS 36 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW
    OF 38 DEGREES SET IN 1983…1982 AND 1963.

    WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
    LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961.

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Bastardi is the kiss of death. I think he’s been excited about the past few winters which have been pretty disappointing for the snow lovers.

    Still waiting on his infamous frigid winters prediction to come to fruition as well.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      You are absolutely correct. At least the CPC is only completely wrong 50% of the time, excellent in the world of long range weather =)

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      The “infamous frigid winters prediction” was for the winters of 2013, 14, 15. Never anything different.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wrong. Winter ’12 – Winter ’14.

        http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/combination-of-factors-could-m/36990

        He also said in 2009 on Fox News that global temps were going to start trending dramatically lower starting in the next year. Ooops.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures have been flat since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          The NASA IR Global Temperature Anomaly shows +0.014C for 2013 so far…pretty close to average.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Except that’s playing with the numbers and picking a very hot starting year on purpose.

  4. BF says:

    Today is a perfect day outside. Just beautiful weather! I hope we don’t have a lot of days in the 90′s with humid weather this summer. I know some people like that kind of weather but I prefer days like today where the humidity is low but it is still warm and sunny out.

  5. Jack says:

    DOWNTOWN G.R. Is PARTY TOWN!!!!!!!!!! Thanks GRIFFINS!!!!!! CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54NWWRGLPA4. :-)

  6. Dan says:

    Tigers are in some trouble! Why do they still have Valturdy on the roster? The bullpen is a complete mess. Get it together D.D and Leyland! This team is too talented for this!

  7. Dan says:

    Griffins! Griffins! Griffins! Where is p now? Look at the dollars that rolled into GR because of the Griffins!

  8. Dan says:

    Bastardi brings in dollars because of his hype. How often has he actually been right? I used to think he was ok when he was with acculess. Bring on the 90s ! Summertime in Michigan, doesn’t get much better!

    1. Jack says:

      All Summer Long In… MICHIGAN !!!!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfn9JfxBNPw. WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO !! :-)

  9. mr. negative says:

    What a great forecast to look forward to…six, maybe seven days of rain.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We need the rain :)

    2. Ben (Charlotte MI) says:

      Just because the forecast shows “isolated thunderstorms” every day does not mean it’s going to “rain for six days.” It will probably be nice and dry more often than not. Anyone who has experienced a few summers anywhere in the eastern half of the United States should be familiar with this sort of thing.

  10. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Worst weather for outdoor activities: Hot and wet…

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Okay, make that 10 degrees and blizzard conditions

  11. Daniel (Denver, CO) says:

    This is the 2nd year in a row with so many fires in CO…Even with a wetter spring than 2012, it’s still been tough. Bill mentions the mean heat ridge stays over us which doesn’t bode well for rain chances. Our only hope is for a wet monsoon season and/or el nino this fall/winter.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      The last time we were in CO (a few years ago) – I was struck by how many pine trees had died due to beetle damage – and those trees looked like perfect tinder for a forest fire :-( I’m afraid this cycle of fires isn’t going to let up until those beetles get burned out. And it’s not just Colorado – I’ve seen that same damage in MANY states, going right up into Alaska.

Leave a Reply