Severe Risk Tuesday PM/Night

July 9th, 2013 at 1:45 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook  Much of SW Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Area for Severe Storms Tuesday night.  Click here for detailed maps of the specific threat of tornadoes, large hail and wind damage.   The threat area has been scaled back a little, but still includes much of our area.  It’s generally south of a line from Manistee to Monroe.  The main threat will be isolated wind damage.   Storms are arriving earlier…with the storms over the lake heading toward the Michigan shore by 4:30 PM and the storms in the Indiana border counties at 1:45 PM moving ENE toward I-94 and beyond.  The storms will exit earlier tonight and Weds. thru Sat. look dry and a little less humid.   Read the radar thread above this for more information and more links.    Look at the Storm Reports from Monday…gusts to 90 mph and hail bigger than baseballs in MT and the western Dakotas.  This is a significant system.  Check back on the blog here for updates today.  In the meantime, we could see some patchy fog early this morning in this muggy air.  It should be dry, warm and humid during the day today with highs in the upper 80s (upper 70s near Lake Michigan).  Read the radar thread for more on this system.  It should be sunny and pleasant Thurs. and Fri. (great weather for Maranda’s Park Party and the Grand Rapids Picnic Pops).   If we don’t make 90 today, we’ll have a decent chance next week.   Chicago (O’Hare) had 24 90-degree days up to this point last year…only one so far this year.   A 7.2 magnitude e-quake hit near New Guinea.  Tropical Storm Chantal will likely become a minimal hurricane, producing heavy rain, some flooding and possible landslides thru the Caribbean (esp. Hispanola) and wind up off the East Coast of Florida toward the weekend.   A stronger typhoon (same thing as a hurricane) will move into China.   Isolated showers and storms with higher humidity and slightly cooler temperatures in the SW U.S.  Lihue, Hawaii set a record low temperature of 66 this AM.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

121 Responses to “Severe Risk Tuesday PM/Night”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Interesting how many big storms are popping up nationwide at this hour.

    1. Cort S. says:

      True. Lots of elevated convection out there. There are several low-level jets about 1 mile above sea level around the country (HRRR model’s predicted winds at that level). Thunderstorms like to pop up on the front (nose) of low-level jets, where fast-moving air piles up against slower-moving air.

  2. INDY says:

    Wow hot weather and storms around thee 10th INDY is on it….INDYY..

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      You’ve been calling it, especially the BOWING part of it, we shall see what tomorrow brings, but WOW is the air ripe today

    2. Jack says:

      Ding, Ding, Bingo, 4 U INDY !!!! Staying Tuned, and, CUED!!!! ;-)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        SOunds like they are backing off their predictions so we shall see. Seems when they do back off things happen. Not holding my breath though.

  3. Wolverdog says:

    Chance of storms in Wisc making it accross the lake? Any thoughts?

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Phew. Super muggy. I only got down to 71 last night. That’s a warm night.

    Can’t believe it’s hotter in northern Michigan still. Traverse City’s last three days have been 89, 90, 90. The heat is on.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While it was a warm night in most of lower Michigan not too far off to our north it’s a much different story in fact the current temp at Copper Harbor is 49° with a NE wind of 14MPH and out over lake Superior Buoy 45001 the air temp is only 41° and the high in the last 24hrs was only 45° and the temps on land in the UP near Lake Superior are only in the mid to upper 50’s .
      Right now here I have a temp of 75° with a DP of 71° and its cloudy here.
      SlimJim

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        now for the real “Mother of Michigan heat waves” started on this date back in 1936…..

        7/8/1936 The greatest heat wave on record gets underway across Michigan. Grand Rapids will see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees on six of the next seven days, including an all-time record high of 108 degrees on the 13th. Lansing will peak at 101 degrees on the 14th

        SlimJim

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Marquette is +0.7 so far for July and hit 86 degrees on Friday and 89 degrees on Saturday. Warm up in the UP too.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          It is about time too. Marquette has rewritten much of the record low history books in 2013.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Marquette monthly temperature departure from average: July (so far) +0.7, June -1.1, May -2.3, Apr. -5.5, Mar. -3.0, Feb. -1.3. It’s also been wet. Lake Superior had the 2nd biggest spring rise in lake level since 1918.

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Eight daily record lows for Marquette since the beginning of April, inconceivable!!!! ;)

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Wow, look at the split in the rain already coming straight at us!

  6. Mindy says:

    LOL!!!! Slight risk lower MI. THAT WILL CHANGE!!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We are having severe warnings here right now…

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the severe weather, tornados and heat away from West MI. Bring on the below average temperatures!

    1. Barry in Zeeland(Currently in Pentwater) says:

      Right, because high ’80s and low ’70′s dew point is way below average.

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    This shows me with 8 consecutive days 90+ starting next Monday with a high reaching 95 degrees.

    http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585

    CPC says hot the next two weeks too. See what today’s update brings though. Didn’t they just have us in below average temps? Weird.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This will not happen and this site has an extreme warm weather bias!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Bill disagrees with you.

        “If we don’t make 90 tomorrow, we will over the weekend or beyond.”

    2. Any site that makes a 30 day forecast shouldn’t be trusted. :P

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It can’t even predict tomorrow’s weather correctly ;)

    4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Uh do you want 90 degree days? Those are the days where I stay inside and do nothing! keep the 70′s and low 80′s!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        No kidding. It says heat index of 110 for that 95 degree day. Now that would be way too hot!

  9. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    So will the rain, once it gets here, be here for the rest of the day and night?!?! Or will it be on and off?!?!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      LOL! In hindsight – it wasn’t “rain” for us – it was a “dampening” ;-)

      1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        It must have rained pretty good up in Big Rapids…horse races cancelled tonite. Tomorrow @ noon.

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR will not be seeing one single day of 90 degree temparatures all summer. I love it!

    1. Barry in Zeeland(Currently in Pentwater) says:

      Bully for them. We’ve had three days in the ’90s already.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Couple here already too.

        You know it’s odd when Traverse City gets back to back 90 degree days and GR still hasn’t even had one yet.

        The storm and heat bubble!

  11. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Big storms popping up over me Travis headed your way. Decent lighting and heavy rain.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Haven’t even been paying attention to the radar. Better go close my car roof!

  12. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Too bad they canceled tennis for nothing!

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I was up at Boyne Mountain all last week (I had no internet so no blogging :p) and it was so hot up there! I think we hit 90 or something a couple days ago with sunny skies and calm winds! It must have been an oven own here!

  14. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Woohoo! Severe Thunderstorm Warning for me!

  15. Zach says:

    Mesodiscussion for Michigan… the eastern half of the lower peninsula for severe weather potential.

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131344/

      1. Zach says:

        I post them here because my site pulls them before they are put on the NWS site as the system I run connects to the AWIPS system, the NWS computer site only pulls every 3 minutes so their warnings and products are often delayed up to 3 minutes

      2. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Thanks for the double post DF :/

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Upset the only supporter…

        2. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Upset? Hardly…. It’s the internet for pete’s sake.

      3. INDY says:

        LOL……

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Official text:

      Severe Thunderstorm Warning

      SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
      MIC125-081915-
      /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0059.130708T1826Z-130708T1915Z/

      BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
      SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
      226 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

      * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
      OAKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN…

      * UNTIL 315 PM EDT

      * AT 224 PM EDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
      EXTENDING FROM CLARKSTON TO MILFORD…AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

      HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

      SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

      IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

      * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
      WOLVERINE LAKE AND WALLED LAKE AROUND 235 PM EDT.
      CLARKSTON AROUND 240 PM EDT.
      WATERFORD AROUND 245 PM EDT.
      WEST BLOOMFIELD AND FARMINGTON HILLS AROUND 250 PM EDT.
      SYLVAN LAKE AROUND 255 PM EDT.
      FRANKLIN AND PONTIAC AROUND 300 PM EDT.

      THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS…
      WEST BLOOMFIELD… TROY… SOUTHFIELD…
      SOUTH LYON… ROYAL OAK… ROCHESTER…
      PONTIAC… OXFORD… ORTONVILLE…
      NOVI… MILFORD… HOLLY…
      CLARKSTON… BIRMINGHAM…

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
      BUILDING.

      &&

      LAT…LON 4244 8309 4244 8366 4287 8368 4289 8310
      TIME…MOT…LOC 1827Z 270DEG 17KT 4274 8349 4256 8353

      HAIL…0.75IN
      WIND…60MPH

      $$

      KURIMSKI

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        and again….

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          And again… ;)

        2. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Not really ;)

  16. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Round 1 of severe over. Now I’m hearing more rumbles to the west for Round 2.

    New CPC is out. Keeps Michigan very warm the next 2 weeks (or an increased likelihood at least). I thought Bastardi said it was going to be a cold July? Whoops.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Lucky

  17. mr. negative says:

    Weather proof…

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    So much for high temps in the upper 80′s today. In fact FOX 17 and their ridiculous warm weather bias has been predicting today’s high in GR to hit 90 degrees for about the last 5 straight days! Oh well better luck next time. Another bust – they should be getting used to this by now.

    1. INDY says:

      Hey fixer I mean Rocky days are getting shorter now….INDYY..

      1. Jack says:

        YO…..Indy….Storms 4 US……After MIDNIGHT TUES. ?? That Would be, JULY 10th !!! Great Call !!!!! INDY…. Stay Cued, My Friend !!! I just may owe U, a couple of FIFTHS !!! ;-)

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Great news – winter will be here before you know it!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Fantastic news. Winter is a long way off. I love it.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer you are worthless!

  19. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The Clevland radar isnt looking good for the Tigers game less than an hour.

    1. Jack says:

      Shucks, I was so Looking Forward To Watching MAD MAX Reach 14-0 !!!! Hopefully They Get The Game In Tonight. Stay Cued…TIGER FANS, and Weather GURU’ S……. ;-)

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Wouldn’t have been a bad idea to give Smyly a start for an inning or two, then come out with Sherzer after the almost certain delay.

  20. INDY says:

    Jack get ready to stack rack and crack some storms sparkee style…..INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      Ok….. Indy, READY 2 “Twist”,and “Shout”, and ” Burn”… Sparkee Style… 4/20…. Always. !!!! Let THEEEE STORMS , Begin!!! My Friend. Have a Sprite (or 2), 4 Me !!! Stay Cued…Always… ;-)

  21. Dan says:

    Lets go Max Scherzer! I think they’re in a rain delay now. Lets go Tigers! They need this one to take the series on the road!

  22. Dan says:

    Game is back on again! Lets go Max and the Tigers! Humid but not raining here. We had a brief shower early this afternoon. It could get interesting again tomorrow!

  23. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Looks like the I-80 corridor is going to be the sweet spot for storms again this year.

  24. bluemoon says:

    Gotta love spell check, poetical storms, lmao.

    A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS THE JET ENTRANCE REGION
    INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
    THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF MODERATELY STRONG COLD
    FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BRINGS THE POETICAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS…

  25. Wolverdog says:

    Power outage south of Portage to the lake… Any ideas why?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Don’t know…but they list 1,308 customers without power (or 4,976 people affected).

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Not what you want going into a day like tomorrow.

  26. Jack says:

    Jerry HOAG …. Are U Ready 4 Big Storms !!!!!! TUES . Nite or Early Wed. ???? Stayin Cued. 4 U Jerry…. ;-)

  27. Yup (Grandville) says:

    DF, you still haven’t answered my question that I’ve asked you on numerous occasions. What virus or malware have you gotten from Zach’s site? I would like to know. I find it incredibly rude that you disparage him without any shown proof. I’m not trolling you or mad, I would just like to know what you see that I don’t?

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      You are mad, LOL… maybe you are getting a cut of the $$$$$$. Just last week others posted that they had virus scan warnings, read back for proof.

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Money? Are you a little off? Obviously you are mad at his site. I’m curious WHAT virus scan warning people are getting? I work in IT, and haven’t found anything on his site. Please elaborate, because “virus scan warning” is too generic to track down. You said you’ve gotten something, what was it called?

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I’m not arguing with you about the spam of a personal site instead of official links. Read back for the proof you continue to ignore.

        2. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Why are you being so combative? I looked back and couldn’t find anything recently regarding viruses, but I don’t have all day to read every comment from the last week. So we aren’t talking about viruses or are we?

        3. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Are you talking about him using Bill’s site as a money maker for his own? Then yeah, I’m on board with you. I didn’t even realize there were advertisements on thanks to adblock.

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I wonder if Bill makes $$ off this blog or if it all goes to Wood…

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          The first hundred thousand dollars goes to WOOD – I get to keep all the rest!

      2. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Well anyway, his site comes back clean. I suggest you be more careful with the sites you frequent, you probably won’t get as much malware. I also suggest running combofix on your pc, this will help get rid of unwanted programs and dll’s from your system that can cause these popups. I’ve had 100% success rate on my customers computers. http://www.bleepingcomputer.com/download/combofix

        Malware check for http://www.warningweather.com
        https://www.virustotal.com/en/url/ff1355e380ef3a01f309f27f5d3f5e01f74cfbab210291522d5d290077af764b/analysis/1373377673/

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      His site has always worked just fine for me. Granted, there are advertisements and other annoyances – unlike the NWS site.

      I’m sure Zach does make $$ off every visitor to his site as a result. No wonder he keeps posting the links on here.

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        I’m sure he does. But I never see them due to adblock. Maybe that’s what I’m missing here. Isn’t he going into meteorology?

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Travis is explaining what I’ve said is my reasoning many, many times over the years… if some would only read back. I don’t have all day to repost every comment from over the years ;)

        1. INDY says:

          When I think of spam I think of Zach on the blog because everybody has said that in thee past…Getting hot outside Grand rapids 1st 90* dgree day today……….INDYY/./

        2. Yup (Grandville) says:

          I’ve been misunderstanding you this whole time :) Oops.

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Refer to Scott below :)

  28. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

    9am SPC update schlacked the slight risk to basically Pentwater to Battle Creek and west. Highest probs on west side of Lake Michigan.

    1. INDY says:

      Yeaaaa INDYS sweet spot for severe storms a line from Big Rapids to Kzoo tonight, One storm for sure its going to get hot today looking for a high of 93* in Grand Rapids with a bow Echo to roll in about 7pm …….Around the 10th has been INDYS thoughts for about a month now it’s close!! Thee sprites are right its going to storm tonight 100% sure so Stay Tuned….INDYY..

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Ya, yesterday most of southern Michigan was in the 30% area. Now, barely in the slight risk. Hope we get some rain out of this.

  29. Mindy says:

    HILARIOUS !!!! SPC does this every time, remove parts of lower MI slight risk area!!!! Buy early afternoon all of MI will be removed from slight risk area!! I believe this has happened to all out slight risk outlooks this Summer. LOL!!

  30. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    WXYZ is showing three 90 degree days now in their forecast for Detroit.

    Water temps are jumping. I check Lake Charlevoix water temps almost daily, and it went up 5 degrees in the past four days. Good news for me as I’m off to the lake this weekend!

    As for SPC, I wasn’t close to their Slight Risk yesterday and still received a severe thunderstorm, so it can still happen.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I think GR has a decent shot today at 90.

      The warm is definitely trying its best to push over here from the West. It will be a close call on 90′s next week for us, a better chance on the West side.

      The warm temps warm up the surface quickly on these calm days, one windy day and the water temp will plummet… then repeat :)

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        What temp is your lake at down there? Lake Charlevoix is at 73 degrees as of yesterday. Not bad for such a deep lake connected to Lake Michigan.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          My continued unofficial meter says it is plenty warm :) I capsized (purposely) a sailboat around 20 times last Saturday to train new sailors.

          Baseline Lake is part of the Huron River in reality, so I think it is slightly cooler than Lake Charleviox since the water circulates more often.

      1. bluemoon says:

        DF you are starting to come across as a troll who does nothing all day but piss people off. Go get a job and stop living on welfare.

      2. Zach says:

        DF Thanks once again for proving you can’t read and double posting information…

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Darn those legitimate NOAA/NWS links…

      3. Scott (Hartford Van Buren Co.) says:

        Thanks DF

        My protection software wont even let me view his page.

        1. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Hey Scott, what software are you using? I put his page through some scanners and it came back clean. Or can you tell me what the splash page said? Sorry, tech guy syndrome over here.

        2. Zach says:

          I would like to know as well…. if there is an issue I want to address it.

        3. Yup (Grandville) says:

          I think most of the complaints are from all the ads. Do you have to have them on there for hosting purposes Zach? Or can you get rid of them?

        4. Gun Lake Deb says:

          The few times I’ve clicked on Zachary site, my computer either locked up or wouldn’t back out. I use McAfee Total Protection. I appreciate DF linking to the source pages.

  31. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Doesn’t feel as juicy and hot out as it did yesterday.

  32. Dan says:

    Storms firing for us or will we get missed? Currently, it is hot and a little hind out. I’d say dew points approaching mid 60s

  33. Dan says:

    Humid , oops! Not hind

  34. Crayfish (Sparta) says:

    Sunny humid sticky icky here. Dewpoint of 72.

    Waiting for the 12:30 Convective Outlook to see if anything is going to happen.

  35. Jeff (Richland) says:

    I just hope we get some good rain tonight, thunderstorms would just be a bonus at this point.

  36. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR will not hit 90 degrees today.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      What is your obsession with 90 degrees? We really don’t want 90 degrees with this thick air. It already feels like about a 100 out. Quit trolling.

      1. INDY says:

        Tracking Racking and Stacking some good storms across the lk…..INDYY….

      2. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        Ive got a temp of 86 and index of 95. Warm enough for me…to the pool!

    2. INDY says:

      Ok fixer……INDYY

  37. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Quite a change in the update, storms (whatever we get) are now to end by 10pm. Today is a prime example of forecasters relying too much on computer models and not enough on training and instincts.

  38. Skot says:

    Bill,
    I often hear on the weather scanner that there is ZERO heating degree days. What is that???

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Heating degree days are computed by adding the high temperature and low temperature together and dividing by 2. You take that number and subtract it from 65 and you get the number of heading degree days for a particular day. Why they are called “days”, I don’t know. They use 65 because your home would stay at around 70 degrees (require no heat) if the outside temperature was always 65. The additional heat from cooking, lights, bodies and showering would keep the house at 70 degrees.

      So, if the high is 60 and the low is 40…you add them up, you get 100…you divide by 2 and you get 50. Subtract 50 from 65 and you get 15 heating degree days for that day.

      If the average of the high and low is 65 or greater, then there are zero heating degree days…or no heating required.

  39. Dan says:

    Rain and more rain it came for awhile there! Is there more on the way or are we done.? My location is just south of GR (131 and 84 th street). It still feels humid.

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