Severe Risk Friday

July 16th, 2013 at 10:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

day48prob  Click the pic. to enlarge.   This is the Day 4 and Day 5 Severe Weather Risk areas from the Storm Prediction Center.  Lower Michigan is in the Risk Area for Friday (Day 4).  SPC says:  ” …D4/FRI… AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL AID IN COLD FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM SRN WI/NRN IL ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI/DAY 4. WARM AND VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1200-1700 J/KG WITH LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM JAMES BAY TO ADJACENT AREAS OF QUEBEC. BANDS OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL ADVANCE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.    There were no severe reports in Michigan on Monday, though the sky turned an interesting yellow to yellow-green color in some places at sunset last night.

We have another hot and humid day this Tuesday with high temperatures inland in the low-mid 90s.  It will be a little cooler near Lake Michigan.  There will be a chance of a PM shower/t-shower inland (the lake breeze will prevent that near the lake) though coverage will probably be less than yesterday.   The European model gives G.R. 0.01″ of rain today, 0.02″ Weds., 0.01″ Thurs. and 0.76″ Friday afternoon/night with dry weather from Saturday thru Monday.   In this humid air, any storms that do develop will likely have heavy rain, but the model is saying coverage will be very spotty.  The real story is the likelihood of storms with the cool front late Friday and the possibility of strong to even severe storms.   Keep an eye on updated forecasts, especially if you have plans for Friday evening.  We’re losing a little bit of daylight each day now.  We’ve lost 20 minutes of daylight since the Summer Solstice back on 6/21.  The change in the amount of daylight is maximized closer to the Equinoxes and is less each day near the Solstices.

79 Responses to “Severe Risk Friday”

  1. Becky says:

    Was planning my sons birthday at the Grand Haven State Park Beach with the musical fountain to top it off on Friday afternoon. Looks like the storms are going to ruin our plans.

    1. bobbo says:

      no one cares :) kthanksbai

  2. Lisa says:

    We also saw pink and purple in the colors last night. Was weird and cool!

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    NWS Detroit seems pretty optimistic on big storms Friday. I like listening to them over the SPC which has not been very good.

    I didn’t think there was a chance we could even get close to last July’s extreme warmth, but I’m already getting close with many more hot days to come.

    Last July: +5.6 above
    This July so far: +3.4 above

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      For comparison purposes, here’s some other stations:

      Saginaw: +1.6
      Detroit: +1.2
      Grand Rapids: +1.1
      Jackson: +0.8
      Lansing: +0.2
      Kalamazoo: +0.1

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Traverse City: +3.0
        Gaylord: +2.8
        Soo: +4.0

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Benton Harbor: -1.9
          Alpena: +0.1
          Houghton Lake: +2.1
          Oshkosh: +1.8
          Wausau: +1.8
          Milwaukee: 0.6
          Madison: 0.9
          Chicago: -0.5
          Rockford: -0.9
          Fort Wayne: -1.1
          Goshen: +0.2
          South Bend: -1.0
          Toledo: -0.9

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          haha you guys are too funny

    2. fixxxer says:

      Travis this is gr not detroit. Still not sure why you constantly compare our weather.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        He’s using the (questionable) Flint station data.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Im just saying gr weather is usually different than east of here. Especially detroit.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I completely agree.

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        This is a regional blog, fix. Look, right below you is a poster from Lansing. DF is from AA. Bluegill is from Traverse. We have them all.

      3. AlleganJoe says:

        He wishes he lived on the Civilized Side of the State!! :)

  4. Dana says:

    May i ask what this all means big storm

    1. fixxxer says:

      It means hype.

  5. Tom Cross says:

    I thought if was a very beautiful and calming sunset even though it was hotter and more humid after the rain.

  6. fixxxer says:

    Anybody that believes this hype deserves to be disapointed.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well we all know one person that will be disappointed regardless of what happens.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Nope becuase i dont care. The heat and weather has been good for me latley. But i know it wont last.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Even when you get a solid stretch of hot weather, he’s STILL not happy. Dude, you have the worst life outlook in the world.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer is a complaining whining racist!

  7. Rumrunner says:

    LOL. Go away for a little while and when you come back, see the same old folks doing the same ole thing.

    I hope we get some rain. Definitely need it.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Yes, rain is what’s needed. Storms would just be a bonus.

  8. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Probably form after GR. :o

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Another great day to go golfing. Stay hydrated and get outside and enjoy the summer weather people!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Some of us have to work.

      1. Becky says:

        Unless you’re working sun up to sun down there’s always time to enjoy the warm sunshine. Just wish my husband had the same outlook! He only takes 52 days out of the year to actually enjoy life. Sad…

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Golf and get outside and enjoy the weather when you are done working or do you work 20 hours a day?

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Sometimes it feels like it

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      What happened to your prediction that GR wasn’t going to see 90 degrees this summer and it was going to be a cold summer? Oops

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I never said that…are you talking about Rocky?

  10. Mandy (rockford) says:

    Im taking the kids camping in a tent for the first time thurs-sun. So you can bet we will get those storms thisntime. lol

  11. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

    You guys know were not officially in an outlook area yet, I wont start getting excited until a Moderate risk gets issued. Lol

    1. Cort S. says:

      This is officially an outlook area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

      We’ve actually been in the outlook since Day 6. Usually these 4-8 day outlooks are equivalent to a 30% chance of severe weather, which is an upper-end slight risk.

      1. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

        I was talking about an actually slight risk area, but thanks Cort, I stand corrected!

    2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Even with a moderate risk issued there have been times nothing has happened, what will happen will happen, something or nothing.

      1. Bruiseviolet says:

        So true. Its been so long my storm brain has cob webs… but weren’t the last two moderate risks we were in “busts”?

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Yup! For our area, I definitely get what you are saying about the cob webs, I’m going through withdraw.

  12. I am wondering where does Muskegon stand on summer temperatures (especially in July) Last year on July 6th I thought it got to 100 degrees. It was waaaay too hot for me last year.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Thru the 16th, Muskegon is 1.7 deg. above average for this month with an average temp. of 72.5 and a high of 92. July 2013 was 6.5 deg. warmer than average with an average temperature of 77.6 and a highest of 99 on the 6th.

  13. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    For some reason it doesn’t seem quite as humid as it did yesterday or even as hot, it’s hot yes but not scorching maybe it’s the light breeze that makes it feel not as hot/humid

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I agree. I think it’s the breeze. There was zero breeze yesterday.

      There was no mosquitos at my boy’s ball game last night. Too hot for the mosquitoes too? :-)

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      The breeze is definitely helpful!! Although I wonder if the water from the sprinkler doesn’t simply evaporate before it hits the ground….LOL!! My lawn here at work is waaaay “crunchy” :-(

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        So is the YardOfDucks, their green grass they eat is becoming less green and more of a crunchy straw. But hey, the weeds are growing!

        1. Jack says:

          Yup, The Weeds are Doing Fine in My Yard ,as Well. And We all Know The “Weeds” at Uncle Sparkee’s House, are always, Growing Just Fine !! Lol….. Stay Cued, Big Storms FRIDAY??

  14. mike[kalamazoo county] says:

    I think with the amount of heat, humidity and not much wind we should have a chance at some good storms Friday, if these conditions stay until the cold front comes.. This heat is a different beast than last summer no hot dry wind to go with it. After working outside all day I could not be forced out on a golf course all I want for recreation at the end of the day is central air.

  15. RAD ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

    My Yard makes that nice crunchy noise when you walk on the so called GRASS. Too much sand mixed in with the top soil to try to keep it green in the summer heat like this. Could really use the Rain here.

  16. Yvonne (Caledonia) says:

    Yeah we notice the yellow/green sky, very weird, kept looking for rotation or tornado lol. Very weird looking! Will see what happens on Friday with the storms. Did get some nice soaking rain here last evening, wished it was more, grass can sure use it!

  17. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

    Whats everyone talking about this weird colored sky for? when and where did this happen?

    1. Jack says:

      Yesterday Evening, around Sunset. It was absolutely Awesome. Stay cued, and Keep L@@king Up.!! ;-)

      1. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

        Im surrounded by trees, at my apartment complex.

        1. Jack says:

          Sorry, You Missed it, Due 2 Trees. Those Trees Do Provide You, With Shade on These “Hot” Days , However. Kinda of a Give and Take Thing in IMHO. Stay Cued, and The Good LORD,Bless You !!!

  18. Sara (Grandville) says:

    I noticed the sky too up at my cottage in Montcalm Co…(Lakeview/Six Lakes area). It was definitely weird..m

    1. Sara (Grandville) says:

      Saw a lot of lightning and wondered if it was heat lightning, but a lot of thunder too. Looked off to the SW and a few dark clouds but radar was clear. Have a feeling in my bones that something is going to happen…

      1. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

        Lol, like?

        1. Sara (Grandville) says:

          Lol…like do you ever hear of ppl feeling pain in their knees/joints, etc before a storm hits? Im not saying today…just have a feeling. :) But trust me I’m well aware of the GR bubble.

        2. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

          Oh yes I do lol, I think we’re all aware of the GR bubble, I also like to think its not there haha! How young are you, I’m always trying to make new friends on here :)

        3. Sara (Grandville) says:

          Lol…I don’t necessarily call myself young at 31 but I’m young at heart :)

        4. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

          Aw man, I’m 24, I’m just a baby to you. So how long have you liked the weather?

        5. Sara (Grandville) says:

          Oh my gosh…ive been fascinated by weather for as long as I can remember…since my Dad used to tell me lightning was “fireworks.” My longtime fear of tornadoes has turned into a genuine passion for weather in general. My friends used to call me Mrs. Steffen (no offense Bill) because of my love for weather. I remember when I was 16 years old and worked at Dominos Pizza. Bill came in and I told him how much I loved weather. He gave me his business card. How about you??

        6. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Sara I’m very, very sensitive to barometric pressure changes I usually if it’s going to be a good system I can feel it as far as 5 days out before the event, I call it my “Bodometeor”. I had back surgery 1 1/2yrs ago and joke that the surgeon went in and fine tuned it and works better than ever now. Not only my bodometer I also have Geese-meter, I am known as the YardOfDucks/Geese also around here and when a pressure start changing so does their behavior and when my body and their behavior agree with each other I have more faith in that than the models.

        7. Tyler in kentwood Mobil says:

          I’ve loved weather since I was a lil duffer, rarely payed any attention in elementary school when I knew bad weather was coming. Always loved it

        8. Sara (Grandville) says:

          Weird coincidence Swatz…I’ve had two back surgeries myself!! I totally understand what you’re saying! :)

        9. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Right now I can’t say I can feel anything right now for pressure changes anymore, I just had an MRI 1 1/2yrs later after back surgery for more back pain and they found a tear in my disk so now I’m on Valium and RX Anti-inflammatory pain meds so it dulls the aches for now, but I still feel that twinge. But so far my flock hasn’t raised cane yet with this upcoming system so I’m not sure, we shall see or maybe it’s just to HOT to raise their tail feathers. LOL! I’m sure I’m looking at another back surgery in the future but for now I’ll just deal with it as I can.

  19. INDY says:

    FIXER NEEDS ABOUT 20 MORE YEARS OF WORK TO PAY US HARD WORKERS BACK!!! IT’S HOT OUT AT THEE YARDofBRICKS 94* DEGREESS AS OF NOW STAY TUNED POOL SPRITE AND RIGHT TIME …..INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Indy, This old 70′s Tune Came To Uncle Jack’s Mind Today. Get Your Cane Pole out Do a little Fishing. On the Grand River, In THEEEE YARDofBRICKS….Back Yard!! CUE:: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0a4bzyDqk. Enjoy, and Give Me Shout… :-)

  20. Dan says:

    What does the weather look like for this Saturday? We are having a family gathering at Sandy Pines! hoping for nice weather!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I can’t rule out a lingering shower early, but most of the day should be fine. At least that’s the way it looks now.

    2. Jack says:

      ” Picture Perfect “…. Have Fun,,Be Safe, Enjoy, Stay Cued, and God Bless You, and Your Family !!

  21. Jerry hoag says:

    Sweet, Friday looks like it maybe very neat!!! Storms that could be very healthy??!!! That would be very cool, or should I say hot!!! Realllllllllllllllllllyyyyyyy want those BIG storms and looks like Friday will be our day!!??

    Other than that, the sky yesterday evening, YES WAS VERY AWESOME LOOKING!!! GOD defintely provided a beautiful picture for us!

  22. INDY says:

    TWC Has Michigan In a 3 Twistercon 4 Friday Not Bad 2 days Out…INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      Indy, What’s Your Call “Severe” Storms Friday ? Will BILL’s Best, be Needed and Ready, 2, Rack,Track,Stack, Crack, Smack, and CUE ? Waiting on Thunder BOOMS and Lightning ZOOMS !!!! We are Bills BLOG, We are WEATHER!!!!! ;-)

    2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      well that’s a sure sign that we ARENT getting anything. :D I kid I kid… I really hope TWC knows what they are talking about this time around.

  23. INDY says:

    Just starting to think storms Friday Stay Tuned Jack YARDofBRICKS will have more tomorrow….INDYY..

  24. big Daddy BC says:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201306.gif

    Looks like June was another HOTTER than average months, FIFTH HOTTEST on record worldwide. I haven’t seen that thread heading here on the FOX NEWS blog. Go figure. LOL

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Sorry, that map is based on the coolest 3-decade average only to gin up the red color. Based on the currently used 1981-2010 averages (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html):

      July Global: -0.131C BELOW average
      2013 Global: +0.012C above average

      Heckuva way to run a global warming disaster!

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      ’81 – ’10 is actually a HOTTER three decades than any other in recorded history. The more time they used the more red there would be because the lower that average temp would be. If they used the century average, the map would look like a cherry! LOL
      You make no sense, Mr. Magoo.

      June ’13 is officially the fifth hottest June on record.
      Heckuva way to disprove global warming!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        The 1930s were warmer…in terms of absolute maximum temperatures (24 of the 50 states STILL – 76 years later – count their all time record high temperatures from the 1930s). and in terms of decade average temperature. The 1930s were one degree warmer in G.R. than the 2000s. I’ll bet you find that’s true of many if not most weather stations that have consistent, non-urbanized records.

        Your map uses the coolest 30-year period as an average. That’s done on purpose to make it look warmer, but it’s dishonest. NOAA and NWS uses the 1981-2010 climate normals: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

        Once again…global temperature is 0.012C above average for 2013 and -0.131C for the month of July. NOT a global warming crisis.

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