Severe Risk FridayJuly 16th, 2013 at 10:22 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click the pic. to enlarge. This is the Day 4 and Day 5 Severe Weather Risk areas from the Storm Prediction Center. Lower Michigan is in the Risk Area for Friday (Day 4). SPC says: ” …D4/FRI… AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL AID IN COLD FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM SRN WI/NRN IL ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI/DAY 4. WARM AND VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1200-1700 J/KG WITH LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM JAMES BAY TO ADJACENT AREAS OF QUEBEC. BANDS OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL ADVANCE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. There were no severe reports in Michigan on Monday, though the sky turned an interesting yellow to yellow-green color in some places at sunset last night.
We have another hot and humid day this Tuesday with high temperatures inland in the low-mid 90s. It will be a little cooler near Lake Michigan. There will be a chance of a PM shower/t-shower inland (the lake breeze will prevent that near the lake) though coverage will probably be less than yesterday. The European model gives G.R. 0.01″ of rain today, 0.02″ Weds., 0.01″ Thurs. and 0.76″ Friday afternoon/night with dry weather from Saturday thru Monday. In this humid air, any storms that do develop will likely have heavy rain, but the model is saying coverage will be very spotty. The real story is the likelihood of storms with the cool front late Friday and the possibility of strong to even severe storms. Keep an eye on updated forecasts, especially if you have plans for Friday evening. We’re losing a little bit of daylight each day now. We’ve lost 20 minutes of daylight since the Summer Solstice back on 6/21. The change in the amount of daylight is maximized closer to the Equinoxes and is less each day near the Solstices.