Friday PM Storms

July 19th, 2013 at 12:11 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local damage - 52nd wyoming amy furman  9:15 PM Friday – A thunderstorm northeast of Big Rapids will move toward Alma.  A shower near Mears will move toward Muskegon Co.  A developing area of showers and storms extends from Ionia Co. to just north of Chicago.  South of that line is the best chance of storms tonight, esp. along I-94.  Picture is tree down on 52nd in Wyoming.   Here’s the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.  The updated discussion from SPC continues the Slight Risk Area, with only a 2% tornado risk (within 25 miles of a point), 15% wind and 15% hail.    It was hot and windy, gusts to 30-36 mph in G.R., Holland, Fremont and Muskegon.  The high was a record 96 in G.R. and 97 at the Regional Airport in Holland.   The water temp. at Grand Haven was 79 this AM.  Saturday and Sunday look dry, pleasant and less humid.  We’ll have a chance of a shower or t-shower again on Monday.  HEAT ADVISORY for this evening.  (visible satellite loop). (radar here). We are in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for this PM. See the severe weather thread below for more on the severe threat for Friday. For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin and E. Michigan.

105 Responses to “Friday PM Storms”

  1. kalamazooguy says:

    NWS has this to say for everyone.

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

    MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-191800-
    MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
    MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
    INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LUDINGTON…BALDWIN…REED CITY…CLARE…
    HART…FREMONT…BIG RAPIDS…MOUNT PLEASANT…MUSKEGON…
    GREENVILLE…ALMA…JENISON…GRAND RAPIDS…IONIA…ST. JOHNS…
    HOLLAND…HASTINGS…CHARLOTTE…LANSING…SOUTH HAVEN…KALAMAZOO…
    BATTLE CREEK…JACKSON
    1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

    …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
    SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 2 PM. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED SMALL HAIL…WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH…HEAVY RAIN AND
    FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

    THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE…ESPECIALLY
    AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
    WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

    IF SKIES DARKEN IN YOUR AREA CURTAIL ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
    SEEK SHELTER UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF
    CAUGHT OUTSIDE STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Sounds like a bunch of hype to me.

      1. kalamazooguy says:

        And what if not?

        1. fixxxer says:

          Ill believe it when i see it.

      2. Jeff (Richland) says:

        Of course it does, wouldn’t expect you to say anything else.

      3. mr. negative says:

        Yep…misguided hope, and simple storm greed. Enjoyed a few warm days, and summer is a wrap.

        1. Jennifer K (NE GR) says:

          Summer is far from over you idiot.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          calling names is unnecessary Jennifer!! now get your ass back to 5/3.

  2. fixxxer says:

    Too windy out today. Oh well i enjoyed the heat while it lasted. Probably all downhill now.

    1. kalamazooguy says:

      Except probably not. Might still have heat waves in the future. Just stop because you were already wrong about our cold summer. Why give everyone more ammo?

      1. fixxxer says:

        I bet this is it for the summer.

        1. Hans Landa says:

          I agree

        2. Me :-) says:

          Summer just started Fixxxer. We have many more warm days coming. So take that message back and re post it somewhere in October. You’re too early :-)

        3. RAD ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

          I Hope so, iam sick of it. Give me 60′s-70′s.

  3. Rob's Wife (Plainfield at 3 Mile) says:

    Where is the front right now?

    1. kalamazooguy says:

      Northern Wisconsin/UP

      1. Rob's Wife (Plainfield at 3 Mile) says:

        Thanks. The NWS site is still really confusing to me.

  4. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

    SPC 1630Z update in. Removed the 30% Wind probabilities over Michigan. Remains a 2% tornado risk, 15% hail risk and 15% wind risk.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    Text is below:

    ..LOWER MI AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT

    A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI/WRN UPPER MI WILL PROGRESS EWD
    OVER NRN LOWER MI TODAY…AS THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NE
    MANITOBA DIGS SEWD OVER ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
    QUEBEC /JUST E OF JAMES BAY/ WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD
    ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS…UPPER MS VALLEY…AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
    BY TONIGHT.

    A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS CROSSED NRN LOWER MI AS OF MID
    MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH…WHILE A SECOND
    BAND IS ONGOING OVER WRN UPPER MI AND FAR NRN WI ALONG THE SURFACE
    COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING AND GREATEST
    DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
    CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NRN IL TO LOWER MI…WHERE AFTERNOON SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80 TO LOWER 90S WILL REMOVE CONVECTIVE
    INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
    UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35-45 KT MEAN WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL
    FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STEEPENING
    LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
    THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS.

    THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE
    DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AT
    BEST WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NRN IL TO LOWER MI WHICH
    BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS.
    ALSO…THE STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
    TRANSFER WILL RESIDE FARTHER N ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHERE STORMS THIS
    MORNING HAVE INTERRUPTED THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF DESTABILIZATION. THE
    NET RESULT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE PHASING OF THE STRONGER FLOW
    FIELDS AND LARGER-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
    STILL…WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN THE
    ONGOING STORMS IN LOWER MI…AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
    LATER THIS AFTERNOON OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Exactly as I predicted it!

  5. Zach says:

    Mesodiscussion as well… issued about an hour ago but to bring it into this thread. Watch possible

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131433/

  6. Ray says:

    Could a derecho form over WI this afternoon? Looks like the same setup as July 7th of 1991.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Not likely, and there is no mention of this in any of the discussions.

    2. Ray says:

      And on May 31 1998

      1. bodawg says:

        No. No it does not. Not at all, not even a little.

  7. Cliff (Scotts) says:

    Well this is when we will get hit, they are uncertain with what will happen. Get ready for some boomers.

  8. Hans Landa says:

    Looks like its going to come through dry, I do not anticipate any storms with this system in W. Michigan.

  9. Cliff (Scotts) says:

    Well I called the storms yesterday popping up along 94 about a hour before they did, seeing some nice thunderheads blowing up down in kzoo again, watch out Calhoun migh be getting some rain again

  10. Zach says:

    Well…. this is about the oddest shape to a warning EVER

    http://warningweather.com/view/2013-KMQT-SV-W-0025@Severe-Thunderstorm-Warning

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It looks like a dog. Obviously some coordinate problems here.

      1. tinainvbcounty says:

        It really does! :)

      2. Jack says:

        Ha,ha…The DOG DAYS of Summer !

    2. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      moving east @52mph….thats movin!

      1. cliff(kzoo) says:

        woof woof!!!

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Awesome!

  11. Johnnie(Vicksburg) says:

    I would love any storm right now. We just need rain..Im ready for the humid weather to break.

  12. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Really, east of 131 again? How many times can we get skunked over here? Might as well mow down the corn fields cuz they’ve just about had it here. What’s wrong this time, to hot to rain?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Lake shadow.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        I realize that, but where was the lake shadow 15 or 20 years ago when we used to watch storm after storm roll in over the lake and plow right through this area? The past 10 years it’s like something has changed and everything just skips over us. Oh well, lots less gas I have to buy for the mowers. I’ve only mowed once since we got back from vacation in mid-June.

        1. Cort S. says:

          I’m sure there were plenty of lake shadow days 15-20 years ago too. We’ve also been nailed plenty of times in the last 10 years by storms crossing or even developing over the lake. In the absence of actual numbers, I think we can just assume the boom:hype ratio has remained fairly consistent over the decades. Memory biases, after all, they really make it tough to judge past experiences.

          Anyway, the chances for the near-lakeshore are not zero, but it’s just going to take stronger forcing to pop an updraft through the cap. Right now, forcing mechanisms across the region are fairly weak. Visible satellite can provide clues where some of these forcing zones are currently.
          http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=Michigan-vis-24

  13. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Dark cloud to my WNW. Showers moving in northern Kent CO now.

  14. Lynne @ Little Whitefish Lake says:

    We’ve had 4 nice short down pours up here in Pierson, no lightening.

  15. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Since it’s clear outside, don’t forget to step out and wave towards the sky at 2:27 this afternoon. You’ll have your picture taken from over 800 million miles away.

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/17jul_waveatsaturn/

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks, Barry…..I Like To Do The WAVE !!!! ;-)

  16. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I knew I didn’t quite feel it happening. I was cautious on this system, this far out being called by SPC usually does end up as a downer. Well than, I’d like to say there is 2014, but that to will probably be like any other year over the last few years, getting shafted and skipped over. Boy the farmers sure need a break it’s either late frost/freeze that kills the crops or a drought. *SIGH* Just threw in the towel. Back to our regular program.

    1. Russ C. says:

      Cold front hasn’t made its SE plunge yet, still in northern WI and the U.P. It will come. :)

    2. Jack says:

      ETA……… 8:18 p.m. Swat~zoo………..Stay CUED.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        We shall see, maybe for your neck of the woods but I’ll be the spectator AGAIN. I just feel we’ll just get skimmed but we shall see, I’m going to hold you to your ETA, you’ve been keeping that time set in stone with me so I’m holding you to it. ;-)

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          BWHAAAA just missing that cell North of me by the hair of my chinny chin chin, see it will be that way for me all day/night.

        2. Jack says:

          Ohthay, Swat-zoo, Please Remember what The ” E” stands For !!! LOLOL… ;)

  17. Nathan says:

    Small cell now over the lake…

  18. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! All I know is the wind is doing a number on feathers! This is making me irritable indeed!

    1. Ray says:

      The odds are GR will see some big storms starting after 8pm.

  19. Nathan says:

    It’s raining and thundering!

    1. Nathan says:

      It was literally 4 minutes thunder shower! I need a stronger storm than that!

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I think mother nature is going to have the last laugh rather than the last word she’ll be laughing her A$$ off all the way East of us.

  20. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Doesn’t feel that hot up here any more, it’s got to be the breeze I just walked out and it comfortable not at all HOT and MUGGY like it’s been all week.

  21. Zach says:

    Another mesodiscussion…. watch possible

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131434/

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Figures north of us again

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        makes sense as the front is sinking south and they will be first to see it

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Agreed…remember everyone, this front is not really moving W to E, more of a NNW to SSE movement.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Look again Swatz

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Saginaw area always gets hit.

  22. Jennifer K (NE GR) says:

    Remember they didn’t figure we would see anything until after 6

  23. Jack says:

    Well, Well, Went Outside and WAVED…at 2:27 pm, anybody else Do The Same ?? How about BILL ??? ;-)

    1. Jennifer K (NE GR) says:

      It is 2:27 Pacific time. SO you were 3 hours early :-)

      1. Jack says:

        Whoops, KnowWonder, My Neighbors L@@KED at Me Like I Was …..”crazy”…….. LOLOLO… Waving at 5: 27, They Will, Probably CALL The Men in WHITE COATS….2 Come to Take Me Away…Ha,ha HEE!HEEE… ;-) . Stay CUED.. ;-)

  24. haanstar says:

    Walker area just had a small burst of rain. Hope there is more to come

  25. Cort S. says:

    The HRRR also agrees that the main event will be this evening along the cold front. Click here, and keep in mind to not focus on the specific storm cells, but just look at the general picture. Also, the HRRR has had a tendency to overdo thunderstorm coverage lately.

    Current Michigan radar mosaic: Click here. The storms up north are being triggered by the cold front.

    1. Jack says:

      Thank You, Good Sir CORT. You are in Holland , Correct ??

      1. Cort S. says:

        My roots are there, but I am currently in North Dakota.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          HA if you would look at that, it shows that I very well may get a storm here in my neighborhood/street. But that being said maybe I should go fishing in Carson City tonight around 6-7pm ;-)

  26. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Storms forming in GR area and over lake right now.

  27. Zach says:

    Watch just issued…. Allegan County, Barry county and north

    http://warningweather.com/view/2013-KWNS-SV-A-0422

    1. cliff(kzoo) says:

      just noticed that, the watch came out of no where. Kinda surprised I could see one being added later but right now? It does go till 10pm.

      1. Zach says:

        they did issue two consecutive mesodiscussions that they were monitoring the area… i wouldn’t call it out of nowhere.

        http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131434/

        and

        http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131433/

        1. cliff(kzoo) says:

          your right, I would say one though. The latest meso is for northern Michigan.

  28. Clara says:

    Wow, is it windy over here in Cascade! The tree outside my window is really getting whipped around. We keep alternating between darkening clouds and sunshine…I wish it would just hurry up and storm!

  29. cliff(kzoo) says:

    how is the gr bubble going, looks like storms popping up all around you guys up their. Glad I don’t have to hear about that anymore.

  30. Cort S. says:

    Looks like the Gaylord, Detroit, and Grand Rapids NWS offices and the SPC wanted to cover both the severe storms up by Mackinac and the severe storms over by Saginaw with one watch. The Grand Rapids and Detroit offices have the option of expanding the watch southward if the mid-Michigan storms do become more widespread and severe farther south.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0422.html

    DISCUSSION…BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW LOWER MI…AND ALONG A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND 35-50 KT WLY WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELL/LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

    1. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

      Good keen observation. According to the watch box itself — Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham were added, but barely touched by the watch box. I think, however, a separate watch would be needed south, because in GRR’s interest, they only have one set of counties to go and the box would likely be needed further south.

      Probabilities of the watch — I’ve seen better. Only a 30% chance of 10 wind reports and 60% of 6 or more events in the watch box. Definitely have seen better watch probabilities.

  31. Sara says:

    Same story, different day… :( Hopefully something will happen later. *Fingers crossed *

  32. Sara (Grandville) says:

    Same story, different day… :( Hopefully something will happen later. *Fingers crossed *

  33. kevin. w says:

    Looks like derecho composite just went up to the north of Mt. Pleasant and the shear values are almost 70 right behind the front. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/dcp/dcp.gif?1374260227025

    1. Cort S. says:

      Before anyone gets too excited about the “d” word… The unidirectional wind shear is good for organized lines with straight-line microburst winds, but the orientation of the triggers (cold front and pre-frontal trough) roughly parallel to the wind shear will not create the classic progressive derecho scenario that we are all familiar with.

      1. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

        If derechoes were possible, I would have believed A) the SPC would have mentioned in the MD or B) the watch itself. Just some parameters are not there for a derecho.

      2. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

        Plus, if I’m not mistaken and these parameters were in fact correct with the shear and instability, it would be very close, if not exceeding some parameters of the June 12 derecho. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Yeah we have only been hyping up the dececho and never was or will be for 3 years now.

      1. Cort S. says:

        The last Grand Rapids derecho… 2 years ago with this monster! (a href=http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=45&interval=10&year=2011&month=7&day=11&hour=5&minute=0>Click here)

        Northern Indiana-Ohio had a derecho last month, and also last year in June. Summertime derechos are more common in that corridor, and every 2-3 years or so one will blast through West Michigan.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Oops… Click here.

        2. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

          We had the northern end here in Van Buren County with that derecho. Likely over 70+ mph winds, because the GLERL site at South Haven reported 74 mph winds. It wasn’t really a typical derecho-type storm. Typically, the leading edge in advance is where we get the winds. It was rain with little wind to start then…BOOM went the dynamite.

  34. kevin. w says:

    Here’s the new shear values that just came out and looking at the newest satellite image has alot of instability building right at the front so convergence is ramping up as well. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/eshr/eshr.gif?1374260447127

  35. Clara says:

    It’s been raining & thundering off and on here, and the drops that have been coming down are HUGE. They look like marble-sized hail, not raindrops.

  36. kevin. w says:

    Heard on Ham radio that many powerlines poles snapped 5 miles east of Mt. Pleasant with Coleman Rd north of m-20 closed due many tree limbs, powerlines, telephones down. Can’t get through due to power outage.

  37. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

    A couple of new cells are popping in southern Berrien and Kalamazoo counties right now, according to radar. Right along US 12 around Niles and then around Schoolcraft.

  38. Nathan says:

    Another cell over the lake! Way more action than I was expecting!

    1. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

      Depends who you talk to. For storm buffs, to have a Day 6, Day 5 and Day 4 30% or greater probabilities and Day 3, Day 2 and Day 1 Slight Risk, they may be disappointed. To those who don’t like storms, some will be overjoyed. I would like no severe storms, but some rain would be nice.

  39. Sara (Grandville) says:

    Major downpour here in Grandville. Thunder and some lightning…but the wind is INSANE!!!

  40. linda hester says:

    we just had a large limb fall on a healthy tree, in Hopkins. very windy, still sunny to partly cloudy

  41. Teresa says:

    Energy from this front is being used up in Canada and upper New York.

  42. Jessie (Caledonia) says:

    Everything skirted us here in extreme northern Barry county. It all went JUST north of me. This better not keep up for the rest of the night!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      It will as I don’t really expect to see much but we’ll see I’m going fishing here within the hour with my son and we’ll see how well they are biting. Will bring my camera and get ready to take photos if anything decides to move on in and I can drive up to Fisk Knob to watch them come in.

  43. Bill Poplaski says:

    Once again another screwed up forecast by Bill Steffens

  44. Jerry hoag says:

    Man the weather really has sucked!!! I think I am going to move to the plains where they get storms all the time, well almost, all the time!! These 5 minutes showers with tiny thunder are really starting to suck!! If I wanted weather like this to continue I would live in Seattle!! Where it rains like crazy a lot but not a lot of boomers. Feeling depressed.

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