Severe Risk Friday PM/Night

July 19th, 2013 at 2:09 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook day1probotlk_1200_wind mackinac bridge truck tips over  That’s a truck that was tipped over on the Mackinac Bridge due to high winds from a thunderstorm.  Click here for a better picture (thanks to Kristi Steffen).   One estimate put the winds on the bridge at 75 mph!  Mackinac Island had a gust measured to 58 mph.  There were trees down on the island and screens ripped off windows.  Here’s some facts about the Mackinac Bridge.  It’s 199 feet from mid-bridge to the water below.    Friday AM Update:    All of Lower Michigan, E. Wisconsin, NE. Illinois, N. Indiana and NW. Ohio are in the Slight Risk Area for this Friday.  SPC says:  “FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES…NEAR 90F…SHOULD BE REACHED AND WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 19Z (3 PM). DEEP WLY FLOW AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25KT FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN WEAK SUPERCELLS…THROUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FAVORS LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.   Check out the probability of severe weather map (above on the right).  It shows a healthy 30% chance of severe (winds) within 25 miles of a certain point centered from Chicago to G.R. to the Thumb area.

We’ve had a very warm night.  Our statistician, Andy Schut found that we have only had 36 days in G.R. history (back to the late 1800s) when we had a low temperature of 77 or higher, 25 times at 78 and higher, only 9 times 79 or highs and only twice has the temperature midnight-to-midnight failed to get below 80 (81 on 7/14/1995 and 82 on 7/5/1902).  However, our lowest temperature midnight-to-midnight will likely come after the storms before midnight.  We’ll turn a little cooler and less humid over the weekend.  We’ll be dry for the weekend with a chance of a shower/storm next Monday night or Tuesday.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

151 Responses to “Severe Risk Friday PM/Night”

  1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Storms for today……get ready West Michigan!!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      We’re ready! Just hope the atmosphere is ready to produce!

  2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I wish I could feel optimistic about this system and all of us seeing some kind of action, I may be a bit achy and my flock up tight, but I’m just having a hard time “feeling it” happening today in our area, N, E, S, SE, SW yes I’m sure they will, but looking at radar still and the tracking of the storms up in the UP I don’t see how this system can dip south enough to affect the West side of Michigan. But WOW did I just get a pretty good gust of wing, ROFL my poor little called duck who has “Flipping” issues just got blown over onto her back with her little feet flapping up in the air because it made her unbalanced, but as someone said this system seems to be moving at a pretty good clip. Maybe I’m not feeling it because it just hasn’t happened for us for so long here in W. Michigan. But again, as much as we want some awesome thunderstorms that are heart pounding, chair jumping, window shaking vivid lightning, we better be careful what we ask for, because you never know tomorrow could bring LOTS of clean up and power outages, and perhaps some homes, cars will have a lot of damage due to fallen trees and power lines.

  3. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Good wind gust here. Dust is flying. Leaves are blowing off the trees. Time to pick up up stuff in the yard that will blow away later.

  4. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I wonder if the 30% will dip further south and leave us in the mid to lower slight risk by tonight or if it will stretch it more north. Things that make you go hmmmmm

    1. TrippedUpDaddy(Belmont) says:

      Looks like the front line is still primarily oriented east to west. The center of the low is moving northward, and that will cause the front have a little more north to south orientation as it passes through our area. If anything I think it will stretch it north and keep it the same.

      From what I read, the big issue is the line of storms passing through Wisconsin right now. From what I heard, we actually want that line to die out and not hit West Michigan if we want a better chance at the big boomers tonight. If the skies stay clear until say 5PM or later, that translates to more latent energy for when the front passes through. Any rain that hits us out before the front actually leaches away energy for storms tonight.

      At least that is how I understand it.

  5. Zach says:

    Mesodiscussion…. watch possible for Michigan.

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131433/

    1. Steven (Hudsonville) says:

      Not for us. What a surprise.

      1. Zach says:

        Its for Kalamazoo…. Hudonville has ice cream… Kalamazoo has severe weather. Would gladly trade today.

    2. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

      In the discussion is says a watch is not anticipated in the near term

      1. Zach says:

        Near term for a mesodiscussion is an hour…..

      2. kalamazooguy says:

        Hudsonville is barely inside of it, but it is.

        And yes, this is the near term. This is for the broken segments of the storms (the pop up ones I was discussing) and not the ones involved with the main line.

    3. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Paints a bleak picture doesn’t it?

  6. fixxxer says:

    Lol…

    1. kalamazooguy says:

      Just like our cold summer.

  7. Jeff (Richland) says:

    It’ll be interesting to see the next SPC update, my guess is they will remove the 30% chance but that we will still be in the slight risk.

  8. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    This has NOTHING to do with the line expected to pass through later this afternoon. stay tuned!!

    1. kalamazooguy says:

      Correct, thanks for pointing that out to everyone Travis. Everyone immediately thinks this means we’re out of the woods.

      Notice the cold front which is at the very top of the Meso photo. That’s where they’re expecting the storms to form.

      The briefing even stated that and even stated the largest chance will come this afternoon/evening when we are warmest.

  9. Mindy says:

    Boundary layer convergence remains weak for most of lower MI!! That says it all!!! HYPE, HYPE !!!! We do need some Rain.

  10. kalamazooguy says:

    Everyone is under a Significant Weather Advisory/Special Weather Statement presently. NWS even says Severe Weather will increase as the afternoon goes on.

    PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

    MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-191800-
    MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
    MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
    INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LUDINGTON…BALDWIN…REED CITY…CLARE…
    HART…FREMONT…BIG RAPIDS…MOUNT PLEASANT…MUSKEGON…
    GREENVILLE…ALMA…JENISON…GRAND RAPIDS…IONIA…ST. JOHNS…
    HOLLAND…HASTINGS…CHARLOTTE…LANSING…SOUTH HAVEN…KALAMAZOO…
    BATTLE CREEK…JACKSON
    1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

    …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
    SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 2 PM. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED SMALL HAIL…WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH…HEAVY RAIN AND
    FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

    THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE…ESPECIALLY
    AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
    WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

    IF SKIES DARKEN IN YOUR AREA CURTAIL ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
    SEEK SHELTER UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF
    CAUGHT OUTSIDE STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.

  11. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Slight risk still 30% area gone…..stay tuned!!

    1. Watchman Tyler (Kentwood 28th/Patterson) says:

      they dont seem as excited either

  12. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I’m already getting small fallen branches out of my 1/2 dead tree out back, I’m picking up the YardOfDucks to prepare for whatever happens. Better to be prepared than not be prepared and get caught with your pants down. Even though I have been missed up here more times now then I can count, I always prepare for worst case because in the end mother nature has the last word, or the last laugh.

    1. TrippedUpDaddy(Belmont) says:

      I’m going out on a limb and saying you get at least a good rain Swatz. My old Achilles injury is stiffening up and the ankle is starting to creak like a rusty barn door. That usually indicates rain (but maybe it’s just old age now that I’m getting up in years.)

  13. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Wind just really picked up…got a little shower and boom the sun is out once again.

  14. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! Wind nearly knocked me off my chicken bike! My tiny little chicken bike.

  15. Clara says:

    Just started raining here in Cascade. Good thing I noticed it was getting dark and decided to roll up my car windows just in time! I heard a little rumble of thunder while I was out there too.

  16. hillary says:

    Where are the storms let’s go bring it on

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