Wednesday Night, Isolated Shower

July 31st, 2013 at 1:36 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Midnight – All that’s left of the showers is a sprinkle near Lansing and a few very light showers south and southeast of Chicago   Skies will become partly sunny tomorrow.   The weekend looks great, partly-mostly sunny and pleasant.  The overall weather pattern for the first half of August will be a little cooler and drier than average.  With an overall dry pattern, we should be grateful for the rain we get over the next 1/2 month.  Through 7/30, July is now just 0.4 deg. warmer than average.  If you add in today, we’ll end the month at +0.2 or +0.3.  We’ve now had 9 consecutive days of cooler than average temperatures.  Check out this summary of the cool air from the GRR NWS.   I am doing the 10 PM and 11 PM news this Weds., so tune in for the latest. 

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin and E. Michigan.

60 Responses to “Wednesday Night, Isolated Shower”

  1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Well how about that? July turned out to very average for lower Michigan. Some areas are a bit dry. Take away Buick City, most locations were within one degree of average.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Yes, some locations will end up slightly above and some slightly below. Just about as average as you can get across the state. One more below average day today though.

      I’m wondering if there is another hot week coming this summer… usually we have more than just one. There is still time.

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    It’s been a great July! Something for everyone. And lots of sunshine. I’ve only had one cloudy day according to NWS the whole month!

    I’m still +2.7 for July, Traverse City +1.7, Holland +1.1, Gaylord +1.3.

    Coldest spot I saw was Alpena at -0.2.

    It’s been a warm late spring/summer so far for me:

    May +5
    June +2.2
    July +2.7 (so far)

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Flint… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXPT449542g

      Kalamazoo is another at -0.7°. Pretty average around… except for Flint.

      1. yooper4021 says:

        Marquette is another at -0.5.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      We know that Flint (Genesee County), for whatever reason, is always 1-2 degrees higher than it’s surrounding areas. As such, it is not a dependable/reliable representative of the area’s temperatures.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I contacted NWS, and they fully stand by the Flint station’s accuracy.

        Lansing is notorious for being a “cold” spot compared to the surrounding stations, so I guess it all evens out anyway.

        1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          I will say that while the Flint readings almost always appear higher than surrounding areas, I notice that the same occurs on my car thermometer when I make my frequent trips to downtown Flint for work. Obviously, urban heat island has a lot to do with that. Also, Grand Rapids (even at the airport) is almost always one of the warmest temperatures within the surrounding area, even to a point where it seems like it’s “too much” urban heat island. Again, though, the temperature is always at least 2 to 3 degrees cooler in Rockford than downtown GR, if not more, on my car thermometer. These urban readings at NWS are technically accurate.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The Lansing and the Big Rapids thermometers were recently moved to warmer sites. This is reflected in the climate record. The warming is due to the weather station moving to a new location, not that the Lansing or Big Rapids areas have warmed overall.

          The thermometers at Flint and elsewhere may be correct, but if you look at the daily weather data, there are some numbers that should catch your eye. Why is Holland (Regional Airport, formerly Tulip City) almost always warmer than Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson? The readings at the Regional Airport are certainly warmer than the city and the beach. I know why the weather station is located there, but relative to the surrounding area, it’s in a warm spot. What do you think happened to the average temperature at this location when the weather station was moved from a rural setting to A PARKING LOT: http://climateaudit.org/2007/07/22/tucsons-amazing-ushcn-station/

          The climate record in general warmed when weather stations were moved to airports and as airports have become busier. At a GRR NWS Media Seminar, Jeff Andresen, the Michigan State Climatologist, remarked that the temperature in Michigan was about one degree warmer than 100 years ago, but that most of the warming occurred at night and in the cool season. That might be explained by moving weather stations to airports, where vehicular and air traffic would stir the air, preventing cool air from settling near the ground and add heat (jet engines throw out a lot of heat). I repeat again that Grand Rapids was one degree F warmer in the decade of the 1930s than in the decade of the 2000s.

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Can’t be true Ryan. Everyone knows that no one works in Flint.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, Flint must be affected by global warming! LOL

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Looking at the 2013 climate plots, first you can see why the lakes are on the rise. Second you can see the lack of rain recently on the lake shore compared to inland areas across the state. Steady rain continued in Grand Rapids and Detroit in July.

    Muskegon: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/grr/climate/plots/KMKG2013plot.png

    Grand Rapids: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/grr/climate/plots/KGRR2013plot.png

    Detroit: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=DTWyeardate

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Awesome 13 second video showing the last 62 years of world temps as measured by NASA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2stHuRMMxog

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      What is the base average for that? I sure hope it isn’t just one year, 1950…

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        If there was a base year, then it would start all white, but it doesn’t.

        It’s temperature anomaly versus the long-term average.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          What is the “long term average?”

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Regarding the video link from Travis…First, Climate Central is an advocacy group. Second, they give no information on what parameters are used to make the video. What is the scale? Are we talking 3 degrees of warming or 0.3 degrees of warming? What is the base average? I wonder if they are using a “cool” average to amplify the recent warming. Are they using the “adjusted” temperatures (selected sites picked to amplify the warming).

      Keep in mind that it’s an accepted fact that global temperatures have been steady for over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif (and July is going to be a relatively cool month for the U.S. and globally) and that the climate models have failed to anticipate this trend: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg Dr. Judith Curry has called the climate models “deeply flawed”.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        The numbers come directly from NASA.

        Go to NASA’s climate change page for data with context and explanations, if interested.

        It’s a cool video and gives you a unique perspective of the longer term trends.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s not a “cool video” if the data is presented purposefully to advance an agenda. (NASA has received 2 BILLION dollars for climate change (I was told that by a NASA employee), yet we can’t find half a million to upgrade the GFS model used for daily forecasting.) That’s why they should be transparent and let us know how the video was constructed. Look at the graphs here: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/ Both of the graphs at the link are correct, but by choosing the parameters, you’d get very different impressions of “global warming” in Grand Rapids.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Interesting exchange in the Climategate emails. I believe this is 2008 or 2009…and we haven’t seen any additional warming since then:

          “Tim, Chris, I hope you’re not right about the lack of warming lasting till about 2020.

          I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where’s the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away.

          (MacCracken suggests that Phil Jones start working on a “backup” in case Jones’ prediction of warming is wrong.)

          In any case, if the sulfate hypothesis is right, then your prediction of warming might end up being wrong. I think we have been too readily explaining the slow changes over past decade as a result of variability–that explanation is wearing thin. I would just suggest, as a backup to your prediction, that you also do some checking on the sulfate issue, just so you might have a quantified explanation in case the prediction is wrong.”

          This is outcome-driven science! The Climategate emails were very damaging to “the cause” (as they called it), because they exposed the conclusion driven “research” and the need to adjust temperatures to make the past cooler (selected sites, and favorable proxies) and the present warmer (using 1951-1980 as a base average in some of their graphs). Also, why is he hoping the warming continues?? Shouldn’t he be pleased if the warming stopped until 2020?

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Told by a NASA employee… hmmmm….

          There’s way more money to be made in fossil fuels as we already went into in the other thread than the dinky alternative energy industry. 20-100 times more.

          No warming since 2008? 2009, 2010, and 2012 are all in the top 10 for hottest years ever recorded – with 2010 being the warmest year ever recorded.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          The only way to make that (false) claim is by fudging the numbers and that is exactly what they have done. There has been an effort by a relatively small number of employees to make the past look cooler and the present look warmer. NASA and NOAA didn’t show the cooler past up until about the early 1990s when they started messing with the data. At that point many stations were dropped from the climate record and others extrapolated over areas that were not representative of the weather at those sites. Weather stations with consistent records that have not been urbanized or moved to warmer locations don’t show that. The entire decade of the 1930s was one degree warmer than the entire decade of the 2000s in G.R. and if you randomly pick consistent, non-urbanized weather stations worldwide, you find a similar record.

          24 states still have their highest maximum temperature record from the 1930s. Seventy-five years later, those temperature records have not been broken. You should read the ClimateGate emails.

  5. YeahThatDan says:

    Let me say, we need the rain! Let me ask, is anyone chopping wood yet for winter? I saw it is going to be cold, across most of the US! Will it snow early? I remember, snow in the fall a few times. I could see flurries in September. Bill? But we need to remember, it is still JULY! As such I think it will be warm again soon. But no records! Who said, it would be hot this summer! The fact is, we are colder not warmer! Open your eyes if you do not see this. It isn’t hard to see!

    1. maggie says:

      winters r usually cold.

  6. INDY says:

    Bring on thee snow with it being so below this summer we have in 2 months get ready!!! INDYY

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON!!

  7. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    I don’t believe that. When one, and only one, measuring station is consistently higher than the rest, then there is something wrong.

    Besides, you don’t even live in Flint, so I do not know why you would cite Flint’s data as your own. I know you said you live 30 minutes from Flint. I live 40 minutes from Bishop but I would never claim Flint’s data as my own. There can be a significant difference in temp/precip in that amount of distance.

    And regarding Lansing, it’s no farther off average than any other station in lower Michigan – except one, of course.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      For Travis’ reply re: The Flint Anomaly.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The warm weather bias Travis anomaly!

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        If you go back 2-3 years, Lansing is off their surrounding areas (colder) just as much as Flint is warmer.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Your point is moot. No one is bragging about Lansing’s data.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The Lansing weather station was moved to a warmer location. So was the weather station at Big Rapids. These two weather stations will now often show warmer minimum temperatures on calm, clear nights than at their previous sites.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Any warming at Flint must have happened recently here is the “average” the major reporting stations in SE Michigan.

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=monthlynormals

      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wow look at that. Flint is not some big conspiracy after all. Thanks, Slim.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          No one said Flint was a “conspiracy”. What SlimJim posted was expected. Since Flint is now significantly warmer relative to average than surrounding weather stations, you would think it would have been more typical in the recent past in order to establish the average.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          More Travis warm weather bias!

  8. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Greatful for the rain this AM. Forecast for the next few weeks paints a dry picture. :(

  9. ryan (wayland) says:

    This has to be an error. Lake Mich water temps for Wednesday: SOUTH HAVEN FILTRATION PLANT 40 F

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      It could be the water at the bottom of the lake is still maybe around 39° yet.
      SlimJim

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I think that’s the water intake temperature, which I believe is 40-feet down and the better part of a mile offshore. That can happen in mid-summer with upwelling. I’m sure that’s not a swimmingbeach temperature.

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Yet another cool July day. For those of you who are wondering how the fall and winter in years with a somewhat similar summer were like here is a short list of some past years with summers that had some similar patterns as this year. 1964, 1952, 1996 and 2008. Now all you have to do is look up those falls and winters and you may have a idea as to the upcoming fall and winter (if you believe in the analog year idea) Of course ever year is different and even if the patterns are similar there will still be differences.
    But still keep 1964, 1952, 1996 and 2008 in mind.
    SlimJim

    1. Gun Lake Deb says:

      I remember 2008 all too well. I’ll be sure to hire a snowplow service :-)

  11. Zach says:

    Mesodiscussion for severe weather potential in Michigan

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20131574/

    1. INDY says:

      lolololololo……….

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Too funny!

  12. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Boy Verlander is not his awesome self this year. But when you out up 11 runs, it really doesn’t matter.

  13. fixxxer says:

    Is it fall or summer bill?

    1. Jack says:

      fixxxer…. Fall is JUST….53 DAYS Away… Stay Cued.. Today is Ahh 3 C- Day, Cool +Cloudy+Crappy !!! Lol… ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Completely – Comfortable – Cool weather! Keep the below average temperatures coming!

        1. Jack says:

          Weather Truly is …..Different , ” In The EYE of The BEHOLDER”… Fact…. Stay Cued… ;-)

    2. Gun Lake Deb says:

      I’ll say it for you: today was a crappy day…..

  14. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Nice line of storms in Wisconsin quickly moving this wa…………ya sure, in my dreams right.

    1. Jack says:

      Hoping for a “Wet Dream”… Aye ? Lol, sorry Couldn’t Resist …Brian ! Just kidding…Stay Cued…. ;-)

  15. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Quite the soaker here. Pretty much rained all day.

  16. Jack says:

    Yeah Bill, The Lightning Died quickly as It Got Closer To The Shoreline. Well at Least Here in Kent Co. We All Should Get WET!!CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fPTwLasBdE. I of my Faves by Jackson Browne…..Enjoy…Ye ALL… ;-)

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Hey Jack, the Tigers scored 40 runs in the last 5 games, and won 9 of the last 10. A a couple new additions to the roster as well. They should be the team to beat down the stretch.

      1. Jack says:

        Indeed !!!! Brian , World Series BOUND AGAIN ? Heck YES!!! And A W.S. WIN…This Year!!!!! Wooooo Hooooo…… Stay Cued…. ;-)

  17. Jack says:

    DANG, Look at The Famous ” SPLIT”, of Rain Showers as It Approaches Kent Co….. What Up With Dat… Bill ???? Seems to Happen Every Time…Any Explanations?…. ;-(. …Staying Cued…… ;-)

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Somebody should tell HAARP to give us some storms!!

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