Tues. Night/Wednesday Rain

August 5th, 2013 at 1:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Tues. 8:07 PM-   Watching t-storms in W Wisconsin.  If they continue east, they’ll get to W. Michigan shortly before sunrise.   There’s a chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly after 2 AM and continuing thru mid-afternoon on Weds.  Severe weather is not likely, though a passing storm could contain gusty winds and brief heavy rain.  We’ll be mostly sunny and pleasant on Thursday.

The high temperature in G.R. Monday was 72 – that was 11 deg. cooler than average.   Chilly temps. Monday AM – Low temperatures:  49 Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo (average low 62), 41 Cadillac and Manistee, 40 Big Rapids and Houghton Lake, 38 Spincich Lake.  Tuesday was the 14th day in a row with cooler than average temperatures and the 13th day that we have failed to reach 80 (the record is 16 days for G.R. for a streak starting in July or August). Temperatures  back to average for midweek and then a return to slightly cooler than average for next weekend.   You can come back during the day to this thread and check links for current weather. 

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin and E. Michigan.

47 Responses to “Tues. Night/Wednesday Rain”

  1. RAD (Jenison/Hudsonville ) says:

    Be nice to get a good soaking rain before it heats back up. I know the heat is coming soon .

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Well, if you consider 80* hot……

      1. RAD (Jenison/Hudsonville ) says:

        Kinda.

  2. Bernie at the lakeshore says:

    I hope no rain interupts the ballgame. This is the week where the Tigers can pull away from the second place Indians. A sweep of the Indians would be sweet. :)

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Going to the game tonight, need the rain to hold off in Cleveland!

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Yep, that’s right, going to Cleveland on vacation…

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN0WqSeCKW8

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        What a game!

        1. Jack says:

          INDEED…… Justin Verlander , Pitchimg TUES . I’m not Sure if That is a Good Thing , Or A Bad Thing ? Depends on Which JUSTIN ( pun Intended ) Pitches Like a ACE ! Lololo.. Stay ~ CUED! ;-)

        2. Michael g (se gr) says:

          Great night! Man were those Indian’s fans bummed!

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I can’t believe they weren’t sold out. Some fans they are.

  3. Dan says:

    I’m with you Bernie! The Tigers need to sweep the Indians! Hopefully Cabrera can go! Go Tigers!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Shit your pants lately Dan? Summers over folks!

  4. INDY says:

    Rain looks to be moving south east we need some out at thee YARDofBRICKS getting very dry….INDYY

  5. kevin. w says:

    Funny how wzzm13 has highs in the low to mid 70s when wood has highs in upper 70s to around 80. Maybe the front is hangin’ around the G.R. area. LOL

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I just looked (9:30 am). Both WOOD and WZZM have a forecast high of 72 for today. We (WOOD) have out low 80s for 4 days of the 8-day forecast. WZZM keeps all 10-days of their 10-day forecast in the 70s. We’re going to get over 80..in fact, we could get in the warm air and make 85+ on Weds. Keep in mind that the WZZM coverage area is farther north than WOOD. The WZZM transmitter is located in Newaygo County. The WOOD transmitter is in Barry County. Yes, most people get their TV from Dish or Cable, but the coverage areas are not the same. So we may both be tailoring the forecast a bit differently, but INHO, ZZM is too cool on at least a couple days.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Ok Bill I get your point it just looked that they were both off by 5-8 degrees. I really don’t think will see any heat waves the rest of the summer.

  6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Upper 70′s, low 80′s… perfect weather. Wednesday may hit 85 here.

    Also, don’t forget, the meteor shower is starting up – although the peak isn’t for another week.

    Some models hinting at an extended warm up the third week of August.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It does look like it is trying to warm up finally, for more than one day, later this month.
      The models will switch back and forth about ten times before, and it will probably still be warm… or cold… average? :)

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well if it hits 80 everywhere else in southern lower Michigan, it will be at least 85 in Flint.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Summary of summer so far from the Detroit NWS… they left out Flint for obvious reasons.
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96437&source=0

  8. INDY says:

    lolololo give up fall is here….Maybe 85* next year!! Bring on Snow !!! INDYY

  9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I can’t believe GR hasn’t hit 80 degrees in almost 2 weeks. Cold over there.

    We hit 82 and 81 already in August. Even Lansing, the state’s cold spot it seems, hit 80 in August.

    Good July write up from Gaylord NWS:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=96406&source=0

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I know, right? Huge difference between 79 and 80.

  10. DF (SE Mich) says:

    This is absolutely the first time I’ve EVER seen a second shade of blue from the CPC on the monthly forecast… WOW. Good for them.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif

    Now maybe, just maybe, one day there will be a blue on the 3 month forecast somewhere.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        LOL, nice. So much orange… but there are a few blues in there every now and then.
        Is there a validation archive? That would be entertaining.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Keep in mind that these outlooks are probabilistic, not deterministic. So when you see that second shade of blue, it means they are predicting at least a 40% chance for below-normal temps, along with other chances not explicitly displayed for near-normal and above-normal temperatures. They are not making an absolute prediction for below-normal temperatures, which would be a deterministic prediction. Since they make probabilistic outlooks, their performance is judged based on statistical skill scores: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/verification/summary/index.php?page=map They have more skill in predicting for the southern regions and less skill in predicting for the Midwest, where the outcome of the jet stream pattern can make or break your month.

          I take issue with these charts because I don’t think they are fit for public consumption due to their inherent statistical nature. Heck, I would say not even all meteorologists fully understand their complexity, me included.

          But, for fun, here are the maps that show both temperature ranks and departures from normal: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps.php

          I will say this too: I can completely understand where all that orange comes from. Pretend you are dealing with statistics and temperature predictions in comparison to the temperature records (either the 30-year normals or the 118-year record). You’re at a casino. You see that most of the months and years over the last couple of decades have been erring a little on the warm side. The dice might be weighted. Why that is, you’re not exactly sure. Could be bad temperature gauge siting. Could be urbanization. Or natural multi-annual, decadal, and multi-decadal cycles. Or AGW. Probably some combination of everything. Nevertheless, it appears that the dice will continue to have slightly higher chances to rollout higher numbers than what they used to decades ago. You have to place your bets. The rules of the game say that the dice can become weighted from time to time, and it’s up to the player to figure out if/how they are. Which probabilities do you assign to the above-, near-, and below-normal outcomes? Averaging out the regional variability in your monthly predictions for the next 12 months, do you think a baseline average of 33-33-33% for your next 12 monthly predictions would make you the most money? Based on recent trends, I would say it would be statistically more likely you would make the most money going with a 40-33-27% baseline. That’s where the orange bias comes from. They’re not peddling global warming; they’re practicing statistics.

        2. Brad says:

          Thanks for that excellent read, Cort. I hope better understanding among blog posters is its result.

  11. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    lololol. Plenty of warm temps left for this summer. Mid 80′s coming soon. Count on it. Summer is still here. Fantastic. I love it.

  12. Barb says:

    Quite cool up here in the north country. Just right in the sun but it’s starting to cloud up.

    1. Barb says:

      Bill, do you think it will hit 80 up here in Cheboygan in Aug.?

  13. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    50 games for Peralta, but he’ll be back just in time for the postseason.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The MLB fans sure love their dopers ;)

      Cycling, first incident = 2 year ban, second = life.

      1. Jack says:

        HMMMmmmm, ” Americia’s Great National Pastimes”…. CUE, The BYRDS :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMuIipOcl9s. LOLO.. Couldn’t Resist…. Stay Cued.. ;-)

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I’m guessing the unions have something to do with that.

        I say let them dope. How much fun was it watching Sosa and McGwire going at it?

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          True, cycling was much better too :)

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Just keep it fair….either EVERYONE HAS to take P.E.D’s…or EVERYONE is BANNED =level the playing field, at least.

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          First offense – one year off with no pay.
          Second offense – banned for life!

        4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          third offense, forced to hang out with Dan.

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Great temperatures today! Keep it coming!

  15. cliff(kzoo) says:

    I guess we will wait and see if the low level jet sets up over south west Michigan? Might not get any rain tonight with all the dry air trying to move into Michigan.

  16. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    How is this weather cold to people?? It is perfect!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I agree.

  17. Barb says:

    I’m heading home to GR tomorrow to check on my yard/plants since it’s been quite dry I’m hearing.

  18. Tom S says:

    Check out the the front that went through ND tonight, Cort S is operating the radar that is directing the cloud seeding airplanes as part of the NDCMP. Note the radar has two strings in the returns, those are the aircraft.
    http://www.swc.state.nd.us/loop.phtml?radar=bowman

    1. Tom S says:

      Oops, need to select historical data; 2 hrs, start time of 08/05/2013 at 1800 MT

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