Friday AM – Dry Pattern

August 16th, 2013 at 3:56 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

max temps.   This is the high temperature map from Thurs.  Lots of relatively cool air east of the Rockies until you get down to the Gulf.  The high of 72 at Augusta Ga was 20 deg. cooler than average.  Columbia SC and Asheville NC (high of 67 were both 16 deg. below average.  So was Omaha, NE.  On the other side of the coin, record daily high temps. were set at Brownsville (100) and San Antonio (102) Texas.  At Eureka, California on the coast, record highs of 74 and 73 have been set the past 2 days (you don’t need air conditioning in Eureka).  The overnight run of the European model keeps us dry through Thursday.  The GFS has a chance of showers Thursday PM…so dry air rules over the next at least 6 days.  Also, a 6.5 earthquake has hit New Zealand.

57 Responses to “Friday AM – Dry Pattern”

  1. Dan says:

    Summer days and Fall nights? Looks like we get up to 80 again and into the 80s this weekend! How long do we stay warm? I’m going to say we stay warm through September!

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    GR now -4.7* for August at the midpoint of the month, and -0.8* for meteorological summer.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Also, if you exclude the one hot week in July, the other 69 days this summer have been -2.7*

  3. Ken says:

    Eureka is in the coastal rainforest that produced the redwoods; I once stayed up the coast in Brookings OR where temps were always 50° – 70° f. Most of the nation’s Easter lilies are grown there.

  4. kevin. w says:

    Definitely don’t like the new weather web page the upper part of the page needs to be cut out plus its not search friendly. The older one was easier to navigate around.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      100% agreed!

      1. Hugh says:

        200% agreed as well

        1. Scott (City of Rockford) says:

          Differently not one of their better moves; 300% agreed

        2. Jack says:

          ” CORPORATE IDIOTS “….. 400 % Agree !!!! ;-)

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Looks hot for at least the next 2 weeks as the high amplitude pattern and record heat at far northern latitudes and out west finally breaks and expands our way. My average high is now dipping below 80.

    New CPC out yesterday predicting yet another warmer than average fall for us.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

    They also just updated their long range outlook, and it has us warmer than average from October all the way through May 2014:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      October all the way to May???? 8 months in a row warmer than average??? Come on Travis…even you wouldn’t put money on that, would you? I’d be more than happy to give you or anyone 5 to 1 odds on a bet that at least one of those 8 months will be cooler than average for G.R. and I’ll give you 2 to 1 odds on 2 months being cooler than (the accepted 1981-2010) average (me taking the cool side of the bet). I can without reservation say that (8 months warmer than average) will not happen. I wonder what CPC is looking at?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        It doesn’t mean every month. They do three month rolling periods.

        You cite the CPC a lot too… especially when it’s cool. So I’m not sure what you’re arguing?

  6. DF (SE Mich) says:

    This is a nice write up on the cool weather from the Detroit NWS.
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96616&source=0

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      At the bottom:

      However, despite the recent cool spell, the average temperature at DTW for the summer so far (June 1-August 14) has actually ranked as the 44th warmest such period out of 140 periods dating back to 1874. This actually ranks this summer so far in the top third warmest summers at DTW!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        And that’s not even including our warm May (which I think of as the start of summer-like temps) or the heat wave coming up.

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        I guess that just goes to show how cool most Michigan summers really are.
        SlimJim

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          … before metro airport and Ikea ;)

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Sometimes we forget that “average” now is actually warm compared to the last 150 years since the average temps were raised.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          The 30-year averages have gone up and down. Look at the graphs here: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/ Note the second graph.

          Again…for G.R. it was one degree warmer in G.R. during the decade of the 1930s than in the decade of the 2000s.

      3. DF (SE Mich) says:

        I thought you’d like that.

      4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Specifically, second to last of the top third.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          But I do admire your optimism.

      5. TrippedUpDaddy(Belmont) says:

        And how many 1000+ foot runways and flights per day was DTW maintaining back in 1874? 1900? 1940? 1960? 1980? …

        Air travel has gone up significantly since the 1970′s and 80′s. Plus, if I remember correctly airport expansion, and mergers in the mid-80′s to early 90′s expanded DTW ecological footprint quite a bit.

        Not to poo-poo warming trends, but I would expect DTW have higher temps around it with the extra asphalt, buildings, and running jet engines it has to contend with when compared to historical temps.

        Kind of like comparing temperatures at a Pittsburgh US Steel blast furnace site before it was built and after it was built.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Hmm sounds like man is directly influencing the climate then?

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Wrong again. Climate refers to a massive area not a small area such as DTW. Thanks for playing.

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    For East Michigan here is a list of the top 20 warmest and coldest summers going back to when records were kept at each station.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=coldsummer.htm

    And for comparison the top 20 for the whole year

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=coldyear.htm

    Now were dose Grand Rapids stack up for this year?? As Michael g pointed out GR is running at -0.8 for the summer and if you took out the one week of hot temps we would be at around -2.7 for the summer.
    BTW where was the Detroit reporting station before Metro Airport?
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Very cool, Slim.

      Looking at Detroit summers, just what you’d expect. By far, most of the cool summers were long ago. In fact, Detroit hasn’t had a summer make the Top 20 coldest list since 1992.

      Compare that to the Top 20 warmest where 5 out of the top 6 are from 1995 to present.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        It thought you only care about Flint where 2009 was the #2 coldest summer ;)
        http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/summer09statewidetempranks.gif

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Detroit’s summer of 2009 was #21.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees

        2. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I like it. Now apply that to where the sensor was in 1880 compared to 2013 :)

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Man-made warming in SE Michigan. Bye-bye trees and forest…
          http://www.epa.gov/med/grosseile_site/indicators/population.html

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          The four coolest Julys in G.R. were (in order) 2009, 1992, 1996 and 2000 – all recent. Of the top 12 warmest Julys, only 2 have occurred since 1955. This is typical of what you find in Michigan and around the Midwest. Des Moines, Iowa has set only one record high temperature in July since 1955 (and that is the lowest record high temperature for the month).

          The Detroit data shows only one year from the 1930s in the warmest 20…that’s to me nonsense and at odds with all the other reporting stations anywhere near Detroit. Look at Flint and Saginaw – both with 4 of their 8 warmest years from the 1930s.

      3. yooper4021 says:

        I realize the U.P.’s weather ‘doesn’t matter’….but the statewide data would tell a pretty ‘average’ story over the last 115+ years. The extremes (warm and cool) are disbursed pretty evenly, and the trendline over the same period of time would say that average summer temps in Michigan (by your definition of May to Aug) are actually decreasing slightly. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rock on yooper!

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I highly doubt the UP would the exception to the large rise we’ve seen the past 100+ years. If anything, the more northern climates are rising faster than the whole. Any actual data to support your claim?

        3. yooper4021 says:

          Yes, the data that I quoted is referenced from the website in my original post. (Climate-at-a-glance section of http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov – May-Aug temps for state of Michigan – 1895-2012)

        4. DF (SE Mich) says:

          The UP only has 50 years of official climate data, essentially starting in the coldest decades in the US and missing the warmest back in the 1930′s and 1940′s. It is a perfect data set for you Travis. Cold to hot (2°C rise 1963 to 2012), must be proof…

        5. yooper4021 says:

          This link is more direct – sorry about that – but you still have to enter in the parameters. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag

        6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          So when you say temps decreasing slightly you really mean temps have jumped considerably in the UP for the last 50 years.

          Like DF says, who knows before that officially. But then again, it seems an almost certainty that it followed the rest of the nation.

        7. yooper4021 says:

          To be honest, Travis, I’m just going by the the NCDC’s website. It does not define exactly what it is pulled into the “Michigan” data in each of the years. I’m assuming it would be what was available and on record from 1895-2012.

          On the specific graph I’m referencing, it plots the average Michigan temperature during the period May-Aug from 1895-2012. It then creates a trendline based on those plotted points. I could have just as easily picked any range of years within that data set and gotten a different result…which is really my point. There are a zillion ways to slice up this data…and generally find something to support your opinion.

        8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          bingo!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      What happened to the 1930s in Detroit? Only one year from the 1930s in the top 20 warmest??? Flint has 4 of the top 8 warmest years from the 1930s – same for Saginaw (and 6 of the top 15).

      Even your beloved Flint shows 7 of the top 10 warmest years before Pearl Harbor!! Hardly a reason to force people to use carcinogen-filled light bulbs.

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Great summer weather on tap! I will be spending plenty of time on the golf course over the next three days! Rock n Roll baby. fixxxer will be complaining about the weather. He will be saying it is not warm enough and it is a little windy! Travis will be telling us it will hit 90 degrees in Flint this weekend! What a joke!

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      What’s funny was you declaring summer and warm temps were over. Oops.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Wake me up when the temp gets above 90 degrees. Not happening baby. Your data and bias are completely ridiculous! Did it hit 90 degrees in Flint today?

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Almost as big of a joke as when you predict a snowstorm every other day.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer your mind must be smaller than a pebble!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          He doesn’t even attempt to hide the alias :)

        2. Jack says:

          Ha,haha…….. Ain’t That The TRUTH !! Lolol ooo. ;-) )

  9. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Todays record high and low occurred both in the same state (California). I guess that is what you get with a desert and mountain range :p

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Let me guess. Eureka, and Needles.

      1. Jack says:

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  10. Jack says:

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  11. Jack says:

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