Continued Dry updated Sunday evening

August 18th, 2013 at 8:00 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

max temps  This is the afternoon high temperature map from Saturday.  Click on the image to enlarge.  Note the unseasonably cool temperatures in the Southeast.  66 in Atlanta (average high 87) Athens and Charlotte NC, 70 in Birmingham, 65 in Greensburo NC, 70 in Lynchburg VA.  They continue to get rain in the Southeast.  It was hot from S. Texas to the Southwest with San Antonio at 100, Laredo at 104…Phoenix soared to 114 with Death Valley CA the warmest at 120.    Sunny and warm today…the overnight run of the European model has only 0.02″ of rain on Thursday, with warm temperatures thru the rest of August.  The warmest day on the Euro. is next Saturday – up in the low 90s.  The clear, calm and dry conditions are giving us some large temperature differences from day to night, with lows this AM in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs today in the mid 80s.   Driving around N. Kent Co. yesterday, I saw curling corn and some very dry soybeans…we need rain, esp. north of G.R.  There is at least a chance of a shower or storm from Weds. night to Friday, though they look to be few and far between.  Here’s a satellite image showing some smoke from Western wildfires over Lower Michigan and the MODIS Lake Michigan satellite picture, showing the cumulus clouds over the land areas Saturday PM, but not over Lake Michigan or in land areas where the lake breeze had penetrated.

SUN. EVENING UPDATE…With dry air and dry ground, we’re getting some big temperature swings.  G.R. went from 55 Sun. AM to 82 Sun. PM.  Both Big Rapids and Mt. Pleasant  went from 45 to 83.  Top honors in the temperature jump category go to S. Boardman with a rise from 45 to 86 (41 deg.).  The overnight GFS plot gives G.R. just .05″ of rain Thurs., then dry thru the 26th.  The European has a paltry .02″ on Thursday, dry Friday, then a chance of showers on Sat.  High temperatures Sunday showed hot weather from S. Texas thru much of the West…with highs of 100 at San Antonio and Laredo, Texas, 98 at Salt Lake City and Denver and 111 in Phoenix.  It was cooler than average from Mobile to Maine, with highs of 75 in Birmingham AL, 77 in Atlanta (avg. high 87), 72 in Pittsburgh and 69 in Parkersburg W. VA and Lynchburg VA.

50 Responses to “Continued Dry updated Sunday evening”

  1. Dan says:

    Does the cold front bring significant rain chances on or about Thursday? Perhaps, the cold front doesn’t make it by that time. Looks like Summer time temps at least for all of next week!

  2. Dan says:

    Here is the latest on this from what the NWS believes may happen.

    WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT ON A HEMISPHERIC SCALE THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY
    SIMILAR AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL…IF YOU GO DOWN THE SOUTHWEST
    MICHIGAN SCALE THERE ARE MAJOR ISSUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
    WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS PERSISTENT IN DIGGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
    ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FARTHER EAST THAN DOES THE GFS (65W
    FOR THE ECMWF COMPARED TO 75W OF THE GFS) BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT
    MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NEAR 75W (GFS)…
    THAT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. IF IT IS
    REALLY IS CLOSER TO 65W… THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SOUTH
    OF INTERSTATE 94 AND PUSH BACK AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.
    LEAVING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN HOT AND HUMID AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

    GIVEN THE CONSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE OVERALL BETTER
    PERFORMANCE THE ECMWF AT LONGER RANGES THAN THE GFS I TEND TO
    BELIEVE THE ECMWF. IN SO THINKING I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF
    ANY COOLING LATE IN THE WEEK. I TRENDED THE HIGHS AND LOWS WARMER
    LATE IN THE WEEK AND LOWERED POPS FOR THU AND FRI. ACTUALLY IF THE
    ECMWF TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WE COULD SEE SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS
    IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Here are the facts:

    1. GR will not see a temperature above 90 degrees the rest of this season.
    2. fixxxer aka Rodney is a whining, complaining wimp!
    3. Travis is a warm weather freak. His bias is outrageous!
    4. This winter will be COLD and SNOWY. GR will be seeing over 100 inches of SNOW!
    5. Rock n Roll will never die!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Highs in the 90′s are possible this week, but we shall see. If you read the NWS discussion, they are increasing the chance of a heatwave this week.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Also, highs will be above average all week, so Im not sure where you are getting this cold business from. Just admit it! The heat is back and here to stay all week. If anything, you will be whining, not Fixxxer.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Tip of the day.

          If you want to be regarded as a normal human, never take fix’s side in any disagreement.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rock on michael!

        3. Jack says:

          michael g…. Truer Words, Were NEVER Written.!!! Lol…. ;-)

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        We will not see a temperature above 90 degrees and surely we will not have another heat wave this season! Mark it down!

        1. Paul says:

          Rocky, what science have you based your opinion on?

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          The RDB model of course!

        3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Rocky is a cold weather freak. His bias is totally outrageous. Thank goodness he is never right. What a joke. Total failure. Get used to it I love it.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Rocky is a broken record and always wrong. Said the same exact thing last year at this time, and it was another horrible prediction.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While the next week or so looks to be warm it will not be what I would call a “heat wave” in fact it will not be all that unusual for this time of year. Today is a real nice mid/late August day with sun and some clouds and a temp here at my house of 79° and low humidity. I am taking a break from painting the outside trim. I am doing the north side today and its just a great day to be doing that work.
    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Agreed. It is pretty typical to have an upper 80′s week in August. The weather yesterday was fantastic.

  5. kevin. w says:

    The high res Euro and the long range canadian and GFS models show the big trough coming back right around the labor day weekend when we start to kick in fall, MUCH cooler weather along periodic rain chances and the football season. Get ready cooler weather’s coming along with an early snow this year. :)

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Not seeing anything cold here. Still flirting with 80′s well into September where the average high is only 75.

      http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585

  6. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Why does it smell like smoke outside? I heard there was a smoke cloud or something?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Uncle Sparkee in town?

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      *ee

  7. Barb says:

    I wish you guys would stick to actual weather-related discussions that are helpful instead of all this BS. I think it turns off those serious about the weather discussions.

    1. David says:

      Thank You!!!

  8. dixie sykes says:

    wheres Kyle I haven’t seen him on

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      He was on last night (Sunday). He was off last week.

  9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Lots of heat records falling out west from Montana to Idaho to Nevada to Arizona.

    This will slowly move east to us.

    Many parts of the upper midwest will be 10-20 degrees above average for the next 1-2 weeks.

    We need some rain!

    1. ron (wayland) says:

      20 degrees above average?? I don’t see any 100 degree temps coming here

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        High could approach 15-20 above average in northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of the UP.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Merely making up for all the well below average temperatures lately.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Right…thru the 18th, G.R. is 4.6 deg. cooler than average. Here’s more departures from average for August 1-18: Minneapolis -2.5, Rochester -4.6, Eau Claire -4.0, Green Bay -2.8, Madison -3.0, Milwaukee -3.5.

  10. Zach says:

    Bill, Nike has creates some shoes for you…. called the weatherman shoe

    http://www.nikeblog.com/2013/08/14/nike-weatherman-pack-release-date-is-official/

  11. INDY says:

    Travis needs to seek work as we need rain out at thee YARDofBRICKS we are dry!! INDYY

  12. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Marquette NWS talking about possible 90 degree temps in the UP.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Only for you cold nuts who only post about the UP when it’s cold =P

    2. yooper4021 says:

      And this is news why???

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Their average temp right now is 73 or 74

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s actually 75 or 74.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        Marquette also hasn’t had a month with above average temps since January.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          LOL!!!

  13. Bill Steffen says:

    Departures from average for Aug. 1-18 in degrees F: Marquette -4.4, S. Ste Marie -3.8, Hancock -4.5, Ironwood -5.5, Menominee -6.7.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Zzzz Another warmer than average year so far for the lower 48 and globally.

      In fact, 2013 could very well be in the top 10-20 warmest years ever recorded. I wonder why that keeps happening so much lately? Hmm

      1. yooper4021 says:

        OK… I give up. Why does it keep happening so much lately?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I read somewhere that the odds of having 9 out of the top 10 warmest years on record occurring since 2000 was the same as hitting the lotto.

          So maybe mother nature hit the lotto? And keeps hitting it?

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Or maybe the pre 1970 temps are being fudged downward?

        3. yooper4021 says:

          You still didn’t answer my question

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Don’t hold your breath, yoop.

        5. yooper4021 says:

          Yep, crickets

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          The CONUS temperature anomaly for Jan. 1 to Apr. 30 was -0.905 deg. C. The last four weeks is -1.336 deg. C. Global the year-to-date is +0.018 deg. C. It’s NOT a “warmer than average” year in the Continental U.S.

          RSS global satellite temperatures show that the current decade (2011-2013 so far) has cooled 0.086 degrees since the previous decade (2001-2010) This makes the current decade the fastest cooling decade in the satellite record.

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