Happy Wednesday

August 28th, 2013 at 10:01 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Storm - Jack Strayer 8 27 Howard City   spcThe first picture is the storm coming into Howard City (from Jack Straayer on my facebook page).   On the right is the Storm Prediction Center’s Thunderstorm Risk Area for Friday.   There’s a “See Text” over our area.  SPC says: “RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO A POSITION FROM WI INTO NERN IA BY 30/18Z. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO AID THIS ACTIVITY…VEERING LLJ SHOULD DRIVE MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN WI INTO LOWER MI WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. WHILE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CLUSTERS…THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. IF SO POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. FOR NOW 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR THIS SCENARIO.”   We’ll be tracking it.  I’m not working today and tomorrow (Thu.), but am working Friday and Sunday.  Current Michigan weather map here.

A very weak cool front has moved through, changing the winds to the northeast.  There’s a lot of low cloudiness around (satellite loop here), but this will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon.  Not much change of air mass, so we’ll stay on the warm and muggy side, but we should stay dry until Friday.  The GFS-plot has 0.71″ of rain for G.R. from Fri. into Sat. (not all-day rains…brief showers/t-storms).  The European has 0.67″ Fri./Sat. with another .18″ Sunday.  Both models drive a significant cool front thru late Sunday and it’s much cooler and less humid on Labor Day (Monday) with highs in the upper 60s on the GFS and low 70s on the European.  The Climate Prediction Center has Michigan in an equal chance of above or below average temps. and rainfall for the 8-14 day period.  I’ve had Michigan about 1-2 deg. warmer than avg. for Sept.  We certainly move away from the real heat and humidity after Sunday.

Rainfall Tuesday/Tues. night:  4.84″ McBain (Missaukee Co.), 3.85″ Marion (Osceola Co.), 3.51″ St. Louis (Gratiot Co.), 3.09″ Lansing 24-hour total thru 8 am – 3.39″ midnight-midnight yesterday), 2.9″ Lake Ann, 2.78″ Traverse City, 2.61″ Mt. Pleasant, 2.5″ Bellevue, 2.19″ Manton, 2.12″ Albion, 2.02″ Grand Ledge, 1.84 Clarksville (Ionia Co.), 1.75″ Entrican (Montcalm Co.), 1.72″ Alma, 1.62″ Jackson, 1.53″ Charlotte, 1.51″ Marshall, 1.50″ Hastings, 1.21″ Rockford, 0.71″ Grand Rapids (airport), 0.18″ Battle Creek, 0.03″ Muskegon, 0.01″ Holland, trace in Kalamazoo, nothing at Benton Harbor.

The morning stats. on the Rim Fire near Yosemite CA show 4,081 fire fighters working the fire with 491 engines and 17 helicopters.  The fire is about 22% contained with total containment at least a week away.  The fire has burned roughly 185,000 acres and is now the 7th largest wildfire in CA history.   Overall, this has been a relatively (important word) quiet year for wildfires…the least number of wildfires in over 10 years and the 2nd least number of acres burned.

The CFS model shows generally mild air thru Sept. 16, then cool with perhaps some scat. frost Sept. 16-26…the ridge builds back for some milder (relatively to average) temps. from Sept. 26-Oct. 6…then a real cool shot for Oct. 7th and beyond with widespread frost and possibly even a few snowflakes then.   Also, fewest # of 100-degree temps. in the U.S. this year in over a century (data set here).  The ice melt in the Arctic may have bottomed out early (note how the Arctic ice extent is greater than in the past several years, and much greater than one year ago).  The Arctic north of 80 deg. latitude has had the coldest summer since records began in 1958.   The Antarctic icecap has grown significantly in the past year and is setting daily records for areal extent.  The Antarctic icecap has been growing in size pretty steadily since the mid 1980s.   And…check out “fishin’ without a pole! (more amazin’ jumpin’ Asian carp).

132 Responses to “Happy Wednesday”

  1. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    I agree, day time heating will play a major role in how bad the storms will be on Friday. We had some good storms out here in Yankee Springs after midnight. Had alot of lightning and rain, I was surprise not too much thunder. More than likely we will be going home later today, and be back out over the weekend. Real muggy this morning.

  2. INDY says:

    Storm season is about done not a very good summer for storms we will make up for it with over a 100 inches of snow coming this winter ….Still could use some rain out at thee YARDofBRICKS grass is dead!! Stay tuned INDYY…….

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Yesterday’s +14 above average in GR tied their relative warmest day of the entire summer.

    Myself, Saginaw, Alpena, Gaylord, etc are almost back to average for August. With four warm days remaining, these locations may very well wind up a little warmer for the month. Traverse City is now above average for August.

    Through the latest update on August 24th, all three SE MI locations remain firmly in a warm summer overall – our 4th consecutive warm summer.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96672&source=0

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Actually NWS just updated the summer numbers.

      Detroit and Flint are now both close to +1 degree warmer for summer 2013.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Actually, thru Tues., Detroit is -1.2° for August, +0.4° for July and +0.2° for June. That’s -0.2 deg. since June 1 (meteorological summer). We may wipe that out in the next four days and Detroit will be exactly average. That’s using the accepted 1981-2010 climate averages. Data is from the DTX Climate webpage here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx (CF6 data).

        Grand Rapids is -1.9° for August 1-27 and we were +0.2° for July and exactly on average for June. That’s -0.5° for the summer (again using the accepted 1980-2010 climate averages).

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Not sure what data you’re looking at or how you calculate things, but my link has the official NWS summer data and both are close to +1 for summer 2013.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Read my comment. Here’s the link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx (CF6 data). It’s the climate page of the Detroit (White Lake) National Weather Service and uses the accepted 1981-2010 climate normals: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Guess you calculate things way different than the official NWS data then since you were about 1 degree off their summer calculations.

          Check out my link.

        4. yooper4021 says:

          I think the difference is that Travis’ link (from Detroit NWS) uses May 29 as the beginning of summer. Bill is using meterological summer (June 1). Coincidentally, the last three days of May were well above average.

        5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          No, I doubt two or three days could make a 1 degree difference for the entire summer. Not possible.

          Not sure how Bill is calculating things or why he’s that off from official NWS data.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…please go to the link I shared: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx Look at the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) and look at the summer months of June, July and August. This is the official climate page of the Detroit (White Lake) National Weather Service. It shows the monthly summaries for each month over the past 5 years, plus the current month thru yesterday. It shows that thru Aug. 27, DTW is -1.2 deg. for the month and that they were +0.4 deg. for July and +0.2 for June.

        7. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Well however you did your approach, you’re 1 degree off NWS, and I doubt they make mistakes. Not sure why you don’t just read their data analysis?

          Those guys are on top of it most of the time in crunching the data.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…it’s not “my approach”! Will you please go to my link. It’s the official climate page of the Detroit National Weather Service. Look at the Preliminary Monthly Climate Date (CF6) and look at the current month and the archived data for June and July. Detroit and the entire NWS uses the accepted 1981-2010 climate normals. I’ll try one more time. Go here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx

        9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          So what is your approach? Do you weight each month according to their number of days as you have to in your calculations? Or do you just take the monthlies and divide by three?

          I still think it’s a timing issue: meteorological summer vs summer.

        10. DF (SE Mich) says:

          It is really simple. The NWS is using ALL summers for that write up. Bill is using the NWS 30 year average that they use for the daily/monthly climate reports (and eventually season report).

        11. michael g (SE GR) says:

          The repeated exchanges of Travis not comprehending Bill’s “approach” resulted in an almost uncontrollable urge to punch my own face.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Nice rebound in temps in the UP over the last 10 days too. Marquette is gaining ground fast and could have an above average month for the first time since January. Well-deserved warm end to summer, considering the cool start (and even cooler spring).

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Actually, it depends where in the UP you are located.

        According to the state graphic in this NWS link, parts of the UP are enjoying a very warm overall summer with the highest temps relative to average in the state (Tahquamenon area).

        http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96672&source=0

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Agreed, the northeastern UP (Tahquamenon/Newberry/Soo) area has been the exception this summer. That area also had a milder spring than Marquette, although still well below average.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s the departure from average for June, July, August (thru 8/27) for:

          Marquette: -0.5, -0,3, -1.1
          Ironwood: -1.0, -0.5, -2-2
          Hancock: -0.2, -0.6, -0.6
          Escanaba: -2.6, -1.8, -1.8
          S. Ste. Marie: -0.4, +1.6, +1.2

          An overall slightly cooler and certainly wetter summer than average in the U.P. With slightly more cloud cover, the departures from average were greater in the daytime (maximum) than the nighttime (minimum).

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          But definitely not everywhere Bill. Those are just the big towns.

        4. yooper4021 says:

          Sounds about right Bill – my parents (in Escanaba) have complained alot this summer! :)

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…I don’t have time to look up every town in the U.P. Every weather station has a different period of record. I think the towns/cities I picked out are representative of different parts of the U.P. I didn’t ignore SSM (the one slightly warmer than average site), I listed them, too. Overall, this has been a cool and wet summer in the U.P.

        6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          That’s why the graphic made by the NWS (that I posted) is a good way to see how summer has been in the UP.

          Most of the UP is shaded in average temps with a tiny sliver below average and another above average.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          The most important numbers are the raw temperatures. The raw temperatures show it’s been a slightly cooler and much wetter summer than average over the large majority of the U.P.

        8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          The graphic in the link above shows that virtually the entire UP is within one degree of average, which for all intents and purposes is just average. Yet above, you state, “parts of the UP are enjoying a very warm overall summer.”

          I believe the “parts” you are referring to is that tiny sliver of yellowish color in Chippewa and Luce counties.

          Your statement is misleading.

        9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Those are parts of the UP.

          As misleading as Bill when he says the entire UP has had a cool summer?

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Rather than let Travis twist my words…I’ll repeat what I wrote above:

          Here’s the departure from average for June, July, August (thru 8/27) for:

          Marquette: -0.5, -0,3, -1.1
          Ironwood: -1.0, -0.5, -2-2
          Hancock: -0.2, -0.6, -0.6
          Escanaba: -2.6, -1.8, -1.8
          S. Ste. Marie: -0.4, +1.6, +1.2

          An overall slightly cooler and certainly wetter summer than average in the U.P.

          I said “overall”. Outside of SSM – list the climate stations in the U.P. that have had a warmer than average summer so far.

        11. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Travis, why are you focusing on less than 5% of the total area of the UP? Does not the other 95% matter?

        12. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          LOL Most has been average, with parts below and parts above as clearly seen by the graphic. You guys argue about EVERYTHING

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          And MOST clearly seen in the actual temperatures:

          Here’s the departure from average for June, July, August (thru 8/27) for:

          Marquette: -0.5, -0,3, -1.1
          Ironwood: -1.0, -0.5, -2-2
          Hancock: -0.2, -0.6, -0.6
          Escanaba: -2.6, -1.8, -1.8
          S. Ste. Marie: -0.4, +1.6, +1.2

        14. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Once again, avoiding a simple question.

        15. Paul says:

          Travis, go ____ yourself.

        16. Dan says:

          Travis, You have NEVER posted your own forecast. Yet, you go to great lengths to try to make Bill look like he is wrong. You never look at what he posts and the data he uses. It seems that you have ONE MISSION. Proving to yourself that its warm everywhere. Whenever you are challenged, you resort to using words like “I don’t know what you are looking at or I’m not sure what your issue is” Fact of the matter is, you WON’T listen to Bill or anybody. I counted four separate times in this blog where you asked the same question.
          Do you have a serious problem? I can understand if you disagree but it is as if you are always right when it concerns your warm weather reporting. Bill has much more knowledge and pours through 1,000 times the amount of data that you do. TRAVIS, YOU ARE WRONG!

        17. michael g (SE GR) says:

          So, five sites spread all across the UP, three months, fifteen total readings, 13 below normal, and Travis can’t concede that it has not been a warmer than normal summer in the UP? Doublespeak.

        18. Daniel G says:

          Bill, Travis is from Oakland County. Everyone over there is ALWAYS correct (just ask them).
          Trying to get those folks to come to some sort of agreement with anyone west of I69 is a waste of time…sorta like playing mumbelty peg with a guy with a wooden leg…why ask why.

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The Detroit NWS use of “Utterly Normal” to describe this summer pretty much says enough.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        They used that phrase a couple weeks ago when the link first appeared and temps were barely above average. Might have to change it now.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          They are using the phrase today. It’s on the home page of the DTW NWS web page: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          That link title hasn’t changed in weeks even as the data has. As we approach +1 for summer, I bet they change it in their end write up.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…using the accepted and by far most commonly used (used on the climate page of the Detroit National Weather Service) 1981-2010 climate normals, these are the temperature departures from average for Detroit for June, July and August 1-27: +0.2, +0.4, -1.2. On the homepage of the Detroit National Weather Service, they say it’s been an “utterly normal summer. And global temperature have been steady for over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        4. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I think you’ve lost it T… +1º related to ALL summers is WELL under a standard deviation and utterly normal.

  4. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – 1/2 inch of storm free rain overnight. We’ll take it.

  5. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Travis – I sincerely mean no offense when I say that I will always trust Bill over you. When it’s all said and done, it comes down to education, credentials, and credibility.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      It’s not my data. It’s the link put out by the NWS team that goes down into the record books.

      I would email the National Weather Service if you disagree and see what they tell you. I’ve done it before. They are very nice.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Travis…will you please go to the link I shared. Just click on the link and look at the data there. It’s the official climate page of the Detroit (White Lake) National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx Look at the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) and look at the summer months of June, July and August.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          LOL Do you really not believe the NWS official summer write-up, Bill?

          How do you even do your analysis? There are a different numbers of days in each month. Therefore, some months obviously get weighted more. It’s not an easy calculation you can do by hand by just having the monthly data.

          http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96672&source=0

          Also, maybe it’s a timing issue. Meteorological summer vs. actual summer.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…once again…please go to the link I shared. Just click on the link and look at the data there. It’s the official climate page of the Detroit (White Lake) National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=dtx/index.php?wfo=dtx

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Yep that’s the preliminary data they verify and use in their summer write up.

        4. fixxxer says:

          Travis needs to go to a wdiv blog. No one cares what its like in detroit.

        5. INDY says:

          Bill tell Travis after all his well spent time on how warm it has been 4 thee state of Michigan this summer, we will still have a below normal summer 2013!!!! INDYY

        6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I believe this sums up this discussion:

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTcRRaXV-fg

        7. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I see your monthly data, Bill. Now how do you calculate a summer average out of all those data points?

          You said you don’t have much time, and that isn’t an easy or simple calculation – so I’m a little confused how you arrived at your numbers.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          I linked to the official climate page of the Detroit (White Lake) National Weather Service. This page (like all similar climate pages at NWS stations across the country) uses the 1980-2010 Climate normals. The numbers for Detroit show that June was 0.2 deg. warmer than average, July was 0.4 deg. warmer than average, and August 1-27 was 1.2 deg. cooler than average. These are the official numbers for Detroit. When you use a different average (say you want to promote global warming to get a big $$$ government grant for essentially writing a term paper, you can use a different average…if you use 1951-1980 for the average, you’ll get warmer numbers because you are using a relatively cool 30-year period. If you used 1910-39, you’d get cooler final numbers because you’re base average would be warmer. If you use July 2012 as the “new normal”, then July 2013 becomes 6.5 degrees cooler than normal),

          I said I don’t have time to look up every single weather station in Michigan. We’ve had a couple of hot weeks this summer, but overall this has not been a hot summer.

        9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Hmmm… So you didn’t actually calculate anything and used NWS data but somehow came up with a different conclusion than their whole team?

          *Insert political rambling here

          Like I said before, I think it’s a timing issue. But I think it’s funny you guys argue about every, single data point that shows warmth. As if Michigan summers has any bearing on the overall global climate. I guarantee it will be another warmer than average month globally just like it has for the past 28 years in a row.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…the data on the climate page of the Detroit National Weather Service is the official data for Detroit. There are two different sets of averages used…the official page uses the 1980-2010 average. The data from this page: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96672&source=0 uses a different average.

        11. yooper4021 says:

          Travis, when is the last time you pointed out anything “cool” in one of your posts? Oh wait…let me answer that for you. NEVER.

      2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        And fixxxer needs to go to the Woe is me blog. No one cares what you think. This blog is for everyone regardless of where they live. As Bill has previously stated, this blog has had comments from people in several different countries. Get used to it. Fantastic.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          nice try fixxxer. You are a joke!

  6. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    It’s funny how Bill mentioned this in his last paragraph, but the Accuweather 45 day forecast actually has 0.2 inches of snow for October 10! It also has our first 32-degree reading the following day. As ridiculous as it is to have a 45-day forecast, at least it shows we’re getting closer to the end of summer and can actually see some nice cold air on the horizon.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lmao…for believing anything that far out.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I am sure there will be many nice days in the next 45 but after that (mid October) things go down hill fast.
      Slimjim

  7. fixxxer says:

    More gloomy bs. No shocker there.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Turn that frown upside down!

  8. INDY says:

    lololo TRAVIS needs a job ……Fixer agrees!!!! INDYY

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I see the great debate as to how “hot” the summer of 2013 has been here in Michigan! While the ranking for the whole state still to be determined thanks to the Detroit NWS office we do have some information from 3 satiations on the east side of the state. Others have posted this link but here it is once again.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96672&source=0

    While some have used this information to try and show ever one how “hot” this summer has been compared to the all of the past recorded records. Lets look at some of the information given. According to the information this summer at all three reporting stations is running less then one degree above the 30 year average. In fact at Detroit there have been 39 warmer summers on record and at Saginaw (tri cities) there have been 38 warmer summers. Then comes Flint with shows there have been only 27 warmer summers while a lot of this can be contributed to the fact that records only go back to 1921 at Flint and the go back longer at Detroit (1874) and Saginaw (1900)

    Now lets look at the top 20 list from the same 3 stations

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=coldsummer.htm

    And what do we find? Well at Flint 6 of the coldest summers have came in the last 30 years (the new “average” and at Saginaw 5 of the top 20 have come in the last 30 years and even at Detroit 3 of the coldest summers have came in the last 30 years. So what dose all of this mean? I think one has to do more number crunching before one can come to the conclusion as to whether its getting warmer, cooler or staying about the same. You can not make that judgment several stations or one small area (Michigan)
    Slimjim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      A voice of reason, as always. Good stuff, Slim! You’re the blog’s data cruncher and analyzer.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Wow… if only the NWS “utterly normal” would have stopped you…

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        The links I provided only was to point out that this summer is just a typical summer temp wise in SE Michigan and for that matter most of Michigan. Now if one wants to talk about non typical then lets take a look at the number of thunderstorm days. I am not sure of how many thunderstorm days certain locations have had this year but here is a list of “average” number of thunderstorm days that is days not thunderstorms as some days may have more then one thunderstorm!

        Alpena 34, Detroit 33, Flint 33, Grand Haven 30, Grand Rapids 37 yes 37 is the average here, Lansing 37 Muskegon 38, Marquette 29, Sault Ste Marie 30 and Houghton lets see if any one can find out how many thunderstorm days we have had so far this year!
        Slimjim

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      From SlimJim’s link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=coldsummer.htm All five of the hottest summers in Flint are from the 1930s and only one of the top ten has come since 1955. Detroit lists 2005 as the 2nd hottest summer, yet 2005 doesn’t show up at all in the top 20 of either Flint or Saginaw. Looking at that data, you certainly wouldn’t project a “global warming crisis” that’s worthy of lowering our GDP or forcing people to buy carcinogen-filled light bulbs.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        LOL Way to only look at the cold.

        I thought you’ve said numerous times that temperature data was not even reliable more than 30 years ago? I guess if it fits your belief, then it’s okay to use anyway?

        Looking at Slim’s data, 9 out of Detroit’s top 20 warmest summers were in the past 30 years.

        Compare this to only 2 out of their top 20 coldest summers coming in the past 30 years.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          I never said nor meant to imply that all temperature records from more than 30 years ago were unreliable. Some are, some aren’t, but there is a lot to question. When the NWS made the change from liquid in glass thermometers to MMTS, that meant that every weather station needed access to electricity. A number of weather stations were moved from open areas to near buildings (where the electricity is) and you can see a jump of a degree or two in the climate record coincident with that move.

        2. INDY says:

          Smurfs movie is out!! INDYY

  10. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I like the blog hypocrite, the fixxxxx, chiming in about people leaving again. Travis has been here longer than you with your 4-5 leave of hypocritical absences… I’d much rather listen to Travis than your indoor weather (cold, deary, no participation ever… I figured it out finally.)

  11. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    where is bigdaddy???

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Sorry Bill!!! Travis took his spot I guess, wants to argue his side but won’t look at the facts of your side.

        1. INDY says:

          Same old same old winter or summer shine!!! INDYY…..

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          100% correct!

      2. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

        Lol

    1. Paul says:

      bdbc is probably walking along Division Ave. about now. Here he is…
      http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-32miuohoLq4/T6Ww3FucDOI/AAAAAAAABCQ/nTuKx69EeXw/s1600/drag-queen.jpg

      LMAO

  12. GunLakeDeb says:

    Thanks for the link to the Silver Carp video – while at first, it’s hilarious – it scares me to death. As someone who lives on a lake big enough to “get” whatever invasive species enters Lake Michigan – I can’t imagine how fast those things could destroy an “all-sports lake”. No waterskiing/tubing/wakeboarding/jetskiing – I’d hate to be in a kayak/canoe lest a powerboat go by and one of those fish hit me :-(

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      As a sailor… I don’t think I could complain =) Kidding, it wouldn’t be good.

  13. INDY says:

    NO 90′s today….. Tomorrow maybe the last!!! FACT our west side of the state will get more snow then the east side this year your guys boring winter is about to set in so fill up on all the heat u guys have us beat but come snow we will roll!!!!! INDYY

  14. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Thanks for the information Bill :)

  15. INDY says:

    Yeaaa when it comes to weather stats IN BILL WE TRUST!!! FACTS GLORRY AND STORMS!! INDYY

    1. Jack says:

      I agree INDY… ( in My Best Rasheed Wallace Voice ” )……… ” BILL DON’T LIE ” !!!!!!!!!!!! Keep up the FACTUAL WORK BILL!!! U dah BEST ,,, ;-)

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While this summer has been near average temp wise (within one degree) I would like to know how the summer so far stacks up thunderstorm wise! Here is a list of average thunderstorm days. The term days is instead of thunderstorms because there are days when there are more then one thunderstorm per day. My guess it we are running below average on thunderstorms (and may have been the last few year.) Anyway here is a list of average thunderstorm days taken from page 87 from Richard A. Keen’s book MICHIGAN WEATHER.

    Alpena 34, Detroit 33, Flint 33, Grand Haven 30, Grand Rapids 37 yes 37 is the average here, Lansing 37 Muskegon 38, Marquette 29, Sault Ste Marie 30 and Houghton lets see if any one can find out how many thunderstorm days we have had so far this year!
    Slimjim

  17. yooper4021 says:

    Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlook is in from CPC, and I see lots of blue around the Great Lakes. Fall and football, here we come!!! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The CPC has had a rough time of it lately. They usually do a decent forecast but it is always entertaining to look at their verification page.
      Look at April 2013… Ouch.
      Forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2013/fcst_Temp.15.201304.gif
      Reality: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2013/obs_Temp.14.201304.gif

      July 2013 was not bad from them but they missed the cold.
      Forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2013/fcst_Temp.15.201307.gif
      Reality: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2013/obs_Temp.14.201307.gif

      They did pretty good in May and June. Terrible in March also.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on and keep the good news rolling. Hey Travis did it hit 92 degrees today at your house? It is 79 degrees in GR! Imagine that- who knew?

  18. Dan says:

    Travis,
    Did you fall and bump your head? What are you talking about? What have we had two weeks of weather that has been above average temperature wise for about a 90 stretch? You should know what that would do to the averages. What is the temp in Flint?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You can not believe a word Travis says. Global warming has effected his brain function!

      1. Jack says:

        ” Weather Ball Glowing it Must Be……..GLOBAL WARMING”….. Lol….Stay CUED!! ;-)

      2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        At least Travis is right once in a while unlike you who has yet to be right on anything. What a joke. Thanks for listening. Fantastic. I love it. Get used to it.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for listening you wimp!

      3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        If only you had a brain

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bring on the below average temperatures baby! Rock n Roll will never die!

    1. fixxxer says:

      There is no below average temps. Go get some glasses. Better yet play some golf in a thunderstorm.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Your brain is the size of a small pebble! You do not have a clue!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          At least he has a brain.

  20. fixxxer says:

    High 80′s my rear today.

  21. kevin. w says:

    Ok enjoy this last bit of of heat from my perspective and the NWS from Marquette and also some of the longer range models. But Bill is right will have a mild period around a month from now before the real cold settles in:

    LABOR DAY WILL BE THE START OF OUR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES…AS ANOTHER LOW DIVES INTO EASTERN CANADA
    ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SUPPRESSING
    THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR SW…AND 60S AND LOW 70S RETURNING TO THE
    FCST FOR MONDAY…BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL /70S/ BY
    WEDNESDAY. STRONGER NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
    850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S MONDAY…ALONG WITH
    THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAY OUT IN THE
    FUTURE…THE ECMWF DOES HAVE 0 TO -2C TEMPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
    THURSDAY. WILL WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE ON THAT ONE. EITHER
    WAY…THE WARM AIR LOOKS TO BE DONE FOR A WHILE.
    &&

  22. kevin. w says:

    A fixxer you can see here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ and here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

    Fall is coming so enjoy your mild weather the next 4 days as the strong high/hot pressure is going back to the southwest and we go into our OLE’ northwest cool pattern my friend. Enjoy it while ya can, it looks like you’ll have Rocky tellin ya its cold and snowy for the next 8 months. :)

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol.. @ long ranges.

    2. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

      kevin.w, what kind of winter will we have this year?

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on – cold and snow is on the way!

  23. Jeff (Portland) says:

    1.50″ of rain from last nights storms . :)

  24. Jack says:

    IMHO…it has been a Perfect Day, tad Muggy…..But, Ya Gotta Take the bitter With The SWEET ! Lots of Interesting Cloud formations as Well. Moving S.W. For a Change ! Lots of Changing IMAGES in The CLOUDS, for Our Viewing Pleasure!! I would This a ECCD ..Type of DAY…. ECCD “equals”…. ” EVER CHANGING CLOUD DAY” ! Stay Cued, and Keep LOOKING UP! Plus Go TIGERS!!! ;-)

  25. Barb says:

    How much rain has GR had in August so far?

  26. Barb says:

    Also in Cheboygan?

  27. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    I am still out in Yankee Springs. All the clouds have moved out, nothing but clear skys.

  28. Wyomingwolf says:

    Hi Bill and everybody..To heck with those Asian Carp!

    All I know is the Grand River above the dam downtown has produced some really nice smallmouth bass this Summer,in July and August.16″-18″ plus,3 and 4 pounder’s are common.Even the bluegills and crappie seem abundant in the deep holes when you can find the ‘hot spots’.I think the Spring floods did something good to the bottom structure of the river.Whatever it was,I’m grateful for the fun fishing and the mighty Grand River.Its a wonderful natural resource!

  29. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Well we’ll my little weather hobos, let me give you uncle sparks summer weather update! My little green monsters were one of the if not the best plants I grew in the last 10 years. Perfect growin weather. I think if Travis took a wild ride up to the back woods and puffed off the green lantern with your ol uncle sparks,,,,, a degree one way or another wouldn’t much matter anymore!

    1. Jack says:

      I concur ….Uncle Sparkee…… CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUiqJxZ6Hj4. H$LL ..YES!!!! :-)

  30. Gun Lake Deb says:

    Today is the 23rd anniversary of the unwarned Plainfield, IL F5 tornado. That right there is why I became a NWS Spotter. My sis-in-law was looking right at it and didn’t recognize it for what it was until 30 seconds before it hit. 256 homes were leveled in their neighborhood.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I toured that area from well NW of Plainfield into Joliet after the storm. That remains the strongest August tornado ever and it moved from WNW to ESE. Here’s more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Plainfield_tornado The size of the tornado and the fact that it was rain-wrapped made viewing the twister very difficult. There are very few pictures of the tornado.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Thanks for the Wiki link – that was interesting reading. Boggles my mind that the CAPE was 8,000…… there were prior tornadoes – and yet Chicago never warned this one until it had done all the damage…

  31. Not weather but a big bright meteor shot across the sky off the the southwest. Not part of no meteor shower but those big bright ones like the one in Russia but not quite as bright. Caught my attention driving and I saw it hit the ground somewhere southwest of my house. First time I ever saw one so bright. Never had time for a photo otherwise I would post it

    1. Jack says:

      Nice….Kyle.. I’m Jealous ….. Keep L@@KING UP!!! And…….Stay CUED!!!! …. ;-)

      1. Jo Anne says:

        Yes, keep looking up–Our redemption draws near!…….+…….

        1. Jack says:

          Amen….Sister Jo Anne !!!! :-)

  32. skyler says:

    very bad weather! hot and humid in day, can’t do anything outside, sticky, gooey and gloomy……..snow snow show some snow!

    1. Jack says:

      Wow…skyler, Bad Day Huh. It what be Much EASIER to Look at Your Day inThis Manner, a SONG by Wayne Watson !! Simply Called ” GRACE” !! Enjoy and Smile……skyler & For you too BILL S. ENJOY….CUE:: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kf_BLjn4a0. :-)

      1. Jo Anne says:

        Thanks, Jack! Love that song “Grace”. And may God bless you today, too!…….+…….

        1. Jack says:

          GRACE.. Is… GOD’S Riches At Christ’s Expense !!!!! Amen !!!!!!

  33. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Hardly a mention of our hot & humid weather lately here in Michigan on the Weather channel. Of course I assume that’s because the east coast has been pretty much spared of it. hahahaha

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      If there is no bad weather to talk about in Florida or New York, they don’t talk about much at all.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        They still have weather reports on there? lol

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