Happy WednesdayAugust 28th, 2013 at 10:01 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The first picture is the storm coming into Howard City (from Jack Straayer on my facebook page). On the right is the Storm Prediction Center’s Thunderstorm Risk Area for Friday. There’s a “See Text” over our area. SPC says: “RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO A POSITION FROM WI INTO NERN IA BY 30/18Z. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO AID THIS ACTIVITY…VEERING LLJ SHOULD DRIVE MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN WI INTO LOWER MI WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. WHILE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CLUSTERS…THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. IF SO POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. FOR NOW 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR THIS SCENARIO.” We’ll be tracking it. I’m not working today and tomorrow (Thu.), but am working Friday and Sunday. Current Michigan weather map here.
A very weak cool front has moved through, changing the winds to the northeast. There’s a lot of low cloudiness around (satellite loop here), but this will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Not much change of air mass, so we’ll stay on the warm and muggy side, but we should stay dry until Friday. The GFS-plot has 0.71″ of rain for G.R. from Fri. into Sat. (not all-day rains…brief showers/t-storms). The European has 0.67″ Fri./Sat. with another .18″ Sunday. Both models drive a significant cool front thru late Sunday and it’s much cooler and less humid on Labor Day (Monday) with highs in the upper 60s on the GFS and low 70s on the European. The Climate Prediction Center has Michigan in an equal chance of above or below average temps. and rainfall for the 8-14 day period. I’ve had Michigan about 1-2 deg. warmer than avg. for Sept. We certainly move away from the real heat and humidity after Sunday.
Rainfall Tuesday/Tues. night: 4.84″ McBain (Missaukee Co.), 3.85″ Marion (Osceola Co.), 3.51″ St. Louis (Gratiot Co.), 3.09″ Lansing 24-hour total thru 8 am – 3.39″ midnight-midnight yesterday), 2.9″ Lake Ann, 2.78″ Traverse City, 2.61″ Mt. Pleasant, 2.5″ Bellevue, 2.19″ Manton, 2.12″ Albion, 2.02″ Grand Ledge, 1.84 Clarksville (Ionia Co.), 1.75″ Entrican (Montcalm Co.), 1.72″ Alma, 1.62″ Jackson, 1.53″ Charlotte, 1.51″ Marshall, 1.50″ Hastings, 1.21″ Rockford, 0.71″ Grand Rapids (airport), 0.18″ Battle Creek, 0.03″ Muskegon, 0.01″ Holland, trace in Kalamazoo, nothing at Benton Harbor.
The morning stats. on the Rim Fire near Yosemite CA show 4,081 fire fighters working the fire with 491 engines and 17 helicopters. The fire is about 22% contained with total containment at least a week away. The fire has burned roughly 185,000 acres and is now the 7th largest wildfire in CA history. Overall, this has been a relatively (important word) quiet year for wildfires…the least number of wildfires in over 10 years and the 2nd least number of acres burned.
The CFS model shows generally mild air thru Sept. 16, then cool with perhaps some scat. frost Sept. 16-26…the ridge builds back for some milder (relatively to average) temps. from Sept. 26-Oct. 6…then a real cool shot for Oct. 7th and beyond with widespread frost and possibly even a few snowflakes then. Also, fewest # of 100-degree temps. in the U.S. this year in over a century (data set here). The ice melt in the Arctic may have bottomed out early (note how the Arctic ice extent is greater than in the past several years, and much greater than one year ago). The Arctic north of 80 deg. latitude has had the coldest summer since records began in 1958. The Antarctic icecap has grown significantly in the past year and is setting daily records for areal extent. The Antarctic icecap has been growing in size pretty steadily since the mid 1980s. And…check out “fishin’ without a pole! (more amazin’ jumpin’ Asian carp).