Mesoscale Discussion – Watch Possible for W. Michigan!

August 30th, 2013 at 1:38 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

MD 1803 graphic The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for much of S. Lower Michigan.  Severe T-Storm Watch is possible! SPC says: ” MORE SUSTAINED/CONCENTRATED SVR POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD ACROSS LM INTO SRN WI…SHIFTING SEWD OVER SRN LOWER MI…SRN LM AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION DEEPENING…INCLUDING “A FEW YOUNG CB…ALONG WI/LM SEGMENT OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LARGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT…RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE SUSTAINED INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S OVER WI/IL/LM AND MID-UPPER 60S OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN 2500-3500 J/KG OVER WI/IL AND 1500-3000 J/KG OVER REST OF DISCUSSION AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR OVERALL ORGANIZATION…WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES REMAINING AOB 30 KT MOST AREAS.”   HRRR model not as excited about storms downtown from Lake MI.

Also, 7.0 magnitude E-quake south of the Aleutian Island Chain…no tsunami expected.  It was pretty deep (21.4 miles).

35 Responses to “Mesoscale Discussion – Watch Possible for W. Michigan!”

  1. GunLakeDeb says:

    A sleepless night ahead?? Although we can use the rain – we got skimped by the last rainstorms…

  2. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

    I’ll believe it when im out standing in it !

  3. Jerry hoag says:

    Yeah another meso discussion! I will believe it when we get hit by some big storms!! Cause GR seems to get missed all the time!!

    But we are way way way over due!!!

  4. Nick (West Olive/Grand Haven) says:

    PLEASE get us!!! I need some rain!!!

  5. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Hope it pans out.

  6. I remember back on Tuesday when we had a meso discussion and nothing ended up happening other than garden variety showers and thunderstorms with only brief heavy rainfall. Im hoping this time we have a shot since the scenario is best since the convection and heating will be right at the time they are supposed to hit.

  7. Cort S. says:

    The latest runs of the HRRR model appear to be resolving a lake shadow. This has a high bust potential for West Michigan, thanks to our giant pond / mini-ocean. Let’s keep our eyes peeled in case I’m wrong.

    1. brandon(albion says:

      HRRR- When has that thing been reliable in the last year?
      no but seriously lets hope its wrong

    2. Jerry hoag says:

      That stupid Lake Shadow better not form!!! We really are way way over due Cort, right??

    3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      That isn’t very good news Cort for us Storm Deprived people along with our rain deprived yards and crops, but not surprising at all. I haven’t felt it with this system as I did the last. So we shall see but I’d say I would be in agreement with you, we’ve been fooled however before.

  8. Cassie says:

    Can anyone tell me what the colored lines mean?

  9. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    If storms due happen to form, they will likely hit Marshall since we have been in the sweetspot for the past month.

  10. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    I have high hopes for today……BRING ON THE BOOMERS!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Yeah for your neck of the woods who seem to ALWAYS get in on the goods the last few years.

  11. Slimjim says:

    Looks like that lake shadow could be taking hold as there are storms on the WI side heading south some on the east side of MI but not much to the north of GR.
    Slimjim

  12. Cassie in Caledonia says:

    Some minor development to the NW over the lake

  13. Crayfish (Sparta) says:

    Weather radio just went off. Watch issued.

    1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

      I didn’t hear when it expires?

      1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

        10:00 pm

        1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

          Ty

  14. Severe thunderstorm watch just issued southern wisconsin and illinois

  15. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Time to empty my rain gage and get ready for the storm line to move thru around 6 pmish. It just looks and feels like a great setup this time. Plus,why would it not storm real bad as we kick off the holiday weekend? Storm watch just posted now. Here we go. It’s going to be a good one this time!

  16. Jerry hoag says:

    Watch for all of us??? My should is a hurting really bad again. My shoulder better be telling the truth!

  17. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area. What is this, the 3rd for the year?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Looks like 3-5 severe and 1 tornado:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2013_svrww_to_date.png

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2013_torww_to_date.png

      Pretty quiet year for the U.S. again. Only 504 watches so far this year.

      1. I don’t count that Tornado Watch because the squall line absolutely died a tragic death around US 131 that day. That whole day was blown by that long stream of elevated convection that trained from the Gulf to the Great Lakes. We chatted about it that night haha.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Yes, that one was an epic fail, and so was the PDS in Indiana (for the better, to be sure).

  18. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    We all beat the BOTT to post the watch. He must be sleeping.

  19. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Storms across the lake having a hard time getting ramped up.

    1. It’s not quite peak heating yet, only 3:30pm. Give them an hour or so and see what they look like.

    2. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

      If u build it, they will come. Give them time Grasshopper. Ha

      1. …aaaaaand the cell in WI has now topped 60,000ft and is severe warned.

        1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

          El Bingo!

  20. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Not much happening with these little cells

Leave a Reply