Friday

September 6th, 2013 at 4:20 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

mantis otsego sheree cooke facebook  Picture of a mantis from Sheree Cooke from Otsego on the WOOD facebook page.   It’s a clear and cool start to Friday.  At 2 AM it was already down to 39 at Cadillac.  The overnight European model gives G.R. a whopping 0.01″ of rain Saturday evening, then 0.21″ next Tuesday night with the stronger front.  The GFS has 0.15″ Tues. night.  The GFS Caribou gives G.R. a high of 91 next Tues. and the Euro. has the G.R. temp. at 89.2 at 2 PM Tues.  Nothing really cold out to 9/21 at least.

Severe weather was in the Western U.S. on Thurs.  Vancouver, Canada had a thundershower (they average 4 days a year with lightning or thunder).  There was a 70 mph gust near Bend OR.  At mid-afternoon, the only severe t-storm watches stretched from E. Washington state and NE Oregon thru Idaho into W. Montana.  Portland OR had more rain in 16 hours Thursday (1.2″) than they had in July and August combined.   London, England reached 85F yesterday, the warmest Sept. day since 2006.

18 Responses to “Friday”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Two confirmed tornadoes in SE Mich last week. It’s been an active summer for severe Michigan over here.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96864&source=0

    NWS raising possibilities of 90 next week now. If GR approaches 90, that will be the warmest temperature that late in the year in many years. Not sure how long. I only looked to 2008.

    CPC looks warm for the next two weeks:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    As alluded to in another thread, September has started very warm in recent years. Here are the departures from average for the first two weeks of September in GR:

    2012: +3.1
    2011: +1.4
    2010: 0
    2009: +2.4
    2008: +2.6

    Trends can be a difficult thing to break. For whatever reason, summers have been getting extended in recent years. Also, interesting is that we usually get a big cool down in late September where temperatures are well below average. It remains to be seen if we get one of those in 2013. The models are not currently showing one.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      If you would have looked back one more year you would have seen that GR reported a high of 91° on September 24th 2007. And in 2005 there was a mini heat wave from September 10th to the 13th with high temps of 88,90,90 and 91 on those days. And the hottest day in the second half of September in GR was on September 16, 1899 (yes 1899) when a high of 98° was reported. And the latest 90 or higher day recorded at GR was 93° on September 29, 1953.
      BTW while the month is only 5 days in but so far Detroit 0.0° Grand Rapids +0.4° and even “hot” Flint +0.5° are all within a half degree on average!!! At this point I would expect all three to come in within a degree of average for the month of September. But we shall see.
      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Nice, Slim. I only go back to 2008 because that’s how far the preliminary monthly data reports go to on the link I use.

        Yep, pretty average so far because of the cool nights, but with a couple +8 to +15 above average days next week, that will not last long.

        Bill said +1 to +3 for September, and I think that will be the correct range if we don’t get a big cool down at the end of the month.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis is probably using Flint temperatures in his 8:14 am comment. For Grand Rapids, Sept. 2012 was only 0.2 deg. above average for temperature and Sept. 2011 was 0.9 deg. BELOW average.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      September is definitely the transition month. Here are the average high temps for the beginning and end of the month.

      GR: 78° > 66°
      Lansing: 78° > 67°
      Detroit: 79° > 68°
      Flint: 77° > 66°

      To add some SE Michigan flavor to Slims comments, Detroit hit 100° on September 15 in 1939 (latest 100 day) and 90° on October 8 in 2007 (latest 90). The October 7 record is 93° in 1963.

      Use this link to go back further Travis:
      http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Thanks. But doesn’t that link only show extremes? I’m just looking for monthly data that lists daily temps.

        According to Slim, it looks like the warm first half of September trend goes back even further than 2008.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          You are correct. You can request the information here and have them email it to you:
          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search

          I received Marquette a while back, some of the data was in Celsius (departure from average) which took me a while to figure out. Watch out for that.

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Like Cort said a few days back, Michigan’s weather seems to be one month behind schedule this year.

  2. Jen in Middleville says:

    I was looking forward to the heat breaking and temps cooling mid way through this month. Guess I was a little ahead of things. :-(

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I am not sure what “heat” you are talking about. So far September has been almost average in much of Michigan!
      SlimJim

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        In fact the first 5 days in the UP and northern lower Michigan are running well below average temp wise.
        SlimJim

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I think she’s talking about the upcoming forecast, Slim.

        In fact, this says Detroit may still be in the mid 80′s until September 21st.

        http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          weathertrends360? Farmer’s Almanac:

          SEPTEMBER 2013: temperature 64° (2° above avg.); precipitation 3″ (0.5″ below avg.); Sep 1-8: T-storms, then sunny, warm; Sep 9-14: Sunny east, t-storms west; warm; Sep 15-22: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Sep 23-25: Sunny, warm; Sep 26-30: Showers, cool.

  3. kevin. w says:

    kevin. w says:
    September 6, 2013 at 8:48 am

    The weather channel this morning said that the trough in the west will nudge a little further east over the next several weeks into the northern plains/great lakes. There stating that there is the possibility of a hurricane going up the eastern seaboard with the type of pattern setting up. Also stating that heavy rains will be focusing on plains/great lakes after mid month as colder air will start clashing with very warm humid air to the southeast as a storm track sets up our way. So now that they say that, I went to some of the longer range models and the new CFS2, Euro and GFS now show alot of stormy weather right around 18th and into early October and it also shows snow north of the U.S. Canadian border the first week of October. ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT BILL.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      LOL, Breaking?!?

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