Saturday Storm Probability

September 6th, 2013 at 11:06 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

spc   The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Lake Michigan Region in a See Text for Saturday PM/Night.  Here’s their discussion.  They say:  “THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE INSTABILITY…FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI AND SRN WI SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY”.   The See Text means that there is a 5% chance of a severe report within 25 miles of a given location.  The See Text area covers everyone south of Traverse City and north of U.S. 12  near the Indiana border.  Some areas won’t see rain at all with this system.  We do need the rain.

Low temperatures Fri. AM:  33 Leota (Clare Co.), 35 Vanderbilt, 37 Baldwin, Houghton Lake, 38 Cadillac, 40 Reed City, 41 Alma and Manistee, 42 Big Rapids, 49 Muskegon, 50 Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo Airports.  The Kalamazoo ag. station, which I think is at the Nature Center, dropped to 40, so you can see it can make a big difference on a calm, clear night where your weather station is located.  Saranac Lake NY dipped to 28 this (Fri.) morning.  The warmest spot in the U.S. yesterday was 117 at Death Valley CA.   St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands ended with a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.28″ from Tropical Depression Gabrielle.   Minimal Tropical Storm Lorena will weaken to a depression as it approaches the southern tip of Baja, Mexico.  Seattle had 1.73″ of rain yesterday. The RIM FIRE in California is 81% contained.  There are 3,634 fire fighters working the fire, down 341 from yesterday.  They have 180 fire engines and 17 helicopters working the fire today.   Sea-surface temperature analogs suggest a slightly cooler than average winter for the Western Great Lakes (note the blocking over Greenland).  The Brazilian meteograms from Metsul also suggest a cold and snowy winter for the Lake Michigan area.   In the meantime, our warm Sept. continues.  With a similar pattern in 2002, Grand Rapids was 4.3 deg. warmer than average for the month.  A tropical disturbance coming into eastern Mexico will produce heavy rainfall.  Winds are below tropical storm strength.   Vancouver, British Columbia had a thundershower yesterday.  They see lightning or hear thunder an average of 4 days per year.

50 Responses to “Saturday Storm Probability”

  1. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

    Looking forward to the warm up next week. One last trip to the lake, water park, fishing, etc. Get out and enjoy it! The firefighters at the RIM fire certainly do NOT need the heat.

  2. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    So no storms?

  3. Katie in Kentwood says:

    See Text means we will get storms, a watch means we won’t :p

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Spam every thread… Breaking, a TD on the Mexico coast that won’t be a depression in 12 hours as it moves inland…

  4. Daniel G says:

    48 on Algoma at 12 Mile this AM on the way to work. Forgot to look at the low spot temps on 12 mile while driving across from Myers Lake. Twas 42 a couple of weeks ago and the sun was already up…this week, no sun at 6:30 yet. ANother summer season winds down..sigh!

  5. Dan says:

    What are the chances that we get our soccer games in?
    We have 2 of them scheduled. One is scheduled for 3pm and the other one is scheduled for 5pm. If there is lightning then, game is suspended for at least 30 minutes. Do we get them in based upon these forecast soundings?

    1. Jack says:

      I’d say it’s Safe to Say, There is a 70 percent chance that You WILL Get all Your Socerr Games in.Before the So called for Rain n Lighting Rolls Through. If we Get any at ALL….stay CUED…+ …Go Tigers !!

  6. Dan says:

    LOCATION of the games is 84 street and 131.

  7. We need rain!! Things are getting dry around here. Some of the smaller tender underbrush are starting to wilt just a little bit. Give a good downpour please mother nature!

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready – winter will be here before you know it! We will be seeing plenty of below average temperatures and over 100 inches of SNOW!!

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Below average doesn’t mean what it used to.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes the new normal will be colder and snowier. Get ready to rock n roll baby!

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      We will be seeing plenty of average to above average temps this winter with way under 100 inches of SNOW. Get used to it. I love it. Fantastic.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer you are brain dead!

  9. big Daddy BC says:

    “According to NOAA scientists, the globally averaged temperature for July 2013 was the sixth highest July since record keeping began in 1880. It also marked the 37th consecutive July and 341st consecutive month (more than 28 years) with a globally averaged temperature above the 20th century average. ”

    1. arcturus says:

      Very interesting. Puts things in better long term perspective.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Your link does not use the currently accepted averages. This is from the Climate Prediction Center’s webpage: “Beginning with the January 2011 monthly data, all climatologies, anomalies, and indices presented within and related to the monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin will be updated according to current WMO standards. For datasets that span at least the past 30 years (such as atmospheric winds and pressure), the new anomalies will be based on the most recent 30-year climatology period 1981-2010.”

      Second, for most of the 20th century average that is used by NCDC, there were no temperature records from the majority of the globe! There were very few readings over the oceans, the Arctic, vast land areas in Asia and Africa. Amundsen didn’t reach the South Pole until Dec. 1911. Satellite IR temperature data starts in 1979. Actual temperature data from weather stations with consistent site parameters don’t show your “341st consecutive month” at all. As I have mentioned before, Grand Rapids was one degree warmer in the decade of the 1930s than in the decade of the 2000s. Half the states have their all-time record heat from the 1930s:

    3. Brad says:


      1. Bill Steffen says:

        No trick, everyone (WMO, NOAA) uses the 1981-2010 climate averages:

        The average temperature for the 1930s was one degree warmer in Grand Rapids than the average temperature of the 2000s.

        Some good news: This is a big victory for the economy of Australia. Abbott and the rest of the progressives will stop the job-killing carbon tax that the regressive Labor Party has been pushing.

        1. Robert(Plainwell) says:

          Bill at least the People of Australia were smart enough to figure out it was a scam.

        2. Brad says:

          Robert, you’re fast approaching me-too status.

        3. Robert(Plainwell) says:

          OK Brad. I will try better next time.

      2. Brad says:

        Bill, the 30-year average is not the 20th century average. When looking for long-term trends, we use the entire data set. It’s pretty simple.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          We? The entire data base would include 2000 to 2013, which would mean a smaller deviation from normal. I do question how they determined the global temperature in the early 20th century, since consistent weather stations show a significant increase.

          The 30-year average isn’t new. It’s the judgement of NOAA and the WMO and it’s based on sound science. Weather stations are moved…they are subject to urbanization. I mentioned earlier the move from liquid in glass thermometers to MMTS, which required electricity. A significant number of weather stations were moved close to buildings (where the electricity was). Again, it was one degree warmer in the 1930s than it was in the 2000s. Those are raw, unadjusted numbers.

        2. Brad says:

          I suspect the 30-year averages will fall to the acknowledgement that we’re dealing with a long-term warming trend.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures have been steady since 2002. The PDO has gone to cool phase. The AMO is still in warm phase. It will be interesting to see what happens down the road when the AMO goes to cool phase.

        4. Brad says:

          That’s why we look at the long-term dataset. Over the past century of warming, we’ve had periods of level or even declining temperatures, but the overall trend is clear to the layman.

        5. Robert(Plainwell) says:

          Yes Brad but who is to say it is not still the rebound out of the Little Ice Age.

    4. Robert(Plainwell) says:

      Not according to Dr Roger Pielke Jr.

      “Human-caused climate change likely ranks low in the Lloyd’s 2013 Risk Index because the vast majority of impacts associated with such changes that would be of direct concern to global businesses in 2013 are presently small or even undetectable at present in the context of historical climate variability, as discussed in my testimony.”

  10. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Looks like one day of 90′s next week then in couple of days highs not out of the 60′s. We will see.

  11. Jack says:

    Speaking of Tomorrow ( Saturday)…. While watching the HIGH thin Clouds ….Drift By Today , This song by Jim Croce buzzed Through My Brain. It’s a Song Called ” Hey Tomorrow”….. One of My Faves…. CUE:: Enjoy & Have a Great Weekend ALL!!!!!! ;-)

  12. I don’t think the state of Michigan likes the SPC because it always does the opposite of what they say it seems like

  13. arcturus says:

    NOAA reports 19 peer-reviewed studies of 2012′s major global wx disasters indicate human activities a factor in half.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Lol!!! Humans are to blame, and the woolly mammoths flagellance caused the ice age to melt right.

      1. Brad says:


        1. Jack says:

          Brad… He meant ” ANAL VOLCANO”……. lol…. Stay Tooted…. ;-)

        2. Brad says:

          AKA, six to eight hours after eating a Taco Bell Volcano Taco!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      arcturus’s link says “The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of many of the 2012 extreme events.” While the link does say that humans were a factor (dubious) in some weather events, it does not blame carbon dioxide and does not define which “events” were influenced by humans.

      Weather “events” now are no different than they were 75 years ago. We’ve had worse droughts, worse tornadoes, worse hurricanes, worse cold outbreaks, worse hot spells and worse wildfire/forest fire seasons than in recent years. In 2013 we are on track to set a record or come close to a record for fewest tornadoes, we are almost at the halfway point of the hurricane season and we haven’t had a single hurricane yet in the Atlantic/Caribbean, we’ve had a low number of severe thunderstorms. Arctic and Antarctic ice has grown considerably this year, the drought eased and we’re headed toward a fantastic year for agriculture.

      1. Robert(Plainwell) says:

        Bill you know they can’t define which events were influenced by man because the link can’t be found.

  14. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I came across this from the NWS office in Marquette. There is a lot of information here and a lot to look at.


  15. The models look pretty lackluster for tomorrow.

    1. Jack says:

      Ha, The ” Models “.. Always ” Look – Good” on ” StormyPleasures” … Right CHALES ??? Lol..stay Cued.. ;-)

    2. Jack says:

      **** CHARLES******.

  16. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Joe Bastardi’s tweet regarding the prediction from the Brazilian Meteogram says “hammering Chicago” but says no temp above 7C after December 1st. To me, his comment doesn’t make much sense.

    7C is 44 degrees. I’d be perfectly happy with winter days close to 44. As many as possible, please.

    1. Brad says:

      Joe Bastardi? Isn’t he in prison? Even if he’s a free man, he has no credibility in matters of climate or even weather.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        You’re confusing Joe with Jim Hansen: Wow! Fourth arrest! And even HE’S had to admit that global temperatures aren’t warming: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al. (reference here:

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