Saturday Storm ProbabilitySeptember 6th, 2013 at 11:06 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Lake Michigan Region in a See Text for Saturday PM/Night. Here’s their discussion. They say: “THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE INSTABILITY…FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI AND SRN WI SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY”. The See Text means that there is a 5% chance of a severe report within 25 miles of a given location. The See Text area covers everyone south of Traverse City and north of U.S. 12 near the Indiana border. Some areas won’t see rain at all with this system. We do need the rain.
Low temperatures Fri. AM: 33 Leota (Clare Co.), 35 Vanderbilt, 37 Baldwin, Houghton Lake, 38 Cadillac, 40 Reed City, 41 Alma and Manistee, 42 Big Rapids, 49 Muskegon, 50 Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo Airports. The Kalamazoo ag. station, which I think is at the Nature Center, dropped to 40, so you can see it can make a big difference on a calm, clear night where your weather station is located. Saranac Lake NY dipped to 28 this (Fri.) morning. The warmest spot in the U.S. yesterday was 117 at Death Valley CA. St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands ended with a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.28″ from Tropical Depression Gabrielle. Minimal Tropical Storm Lorena will weaken to a depression as it approaches the southern tip of Baja, Mexico. Seattle had 1.73″ of rain yesterday. The RIM FIRE in California is 81% contained. There are 3,634 fire fighters working the fire, down 341 from yesterday. They have 180 fire engines and 17 helicopters working the fire today. Sea-surface temperature analogs suggest a slightly cooler than average winter for the Western Great Lakes (note the blocking over Greenland). The Brazilian meteograms from Metsul also suggest a cold and snowy winter for the Lake Michigan area. In the meantime, our warm Sept. continues. With a similar pattern in 2002, Grand Rapids was 4.3 deg. warmer than average for the month. A tropical disturbance coming into eastern Mexico will produce heavy rainfall. Winds are below tropical storm strength. Vancouver, British Columbia had a thundershower yesterday. They see lightning or hear thunder an average of 4 days per year.