Monday UpdateSeptember 16th, 2013 at 5:09 am by Bill Steffen under ArtPrize, Bill's Blog, Weather
As we kick off ArtPrize, here’s a pic. from downtown G.R. from Tom at ReportIt. It may be just me, but I haven’t seen as many leaves changing color to red/orange as I usually see by 9/16. I have seen some variations of yellow and probably a little of that is due to dry conditions in some places. Rainfall amounts were mostly less than 1/4″ on Sunday (.20″ Kalamazoo, .16″ Muskegon, .11″ Battle Creek and Holland, .10″ Grand Rapids and .09″ Lansing. G.R. has had 0.87″ of rain this month so far, less than half of average. The clouds will break up from NW to SE during the afternoon and we’ll have a nice evening. Highs will be in the mid-upper 60s. We may see isolated frost Tue. AM with temps. varying from the 30s to low 40s. Tuesday should be partly-mostly sunny. We’ll have a chance of a t-storm from late Weds. thru Fri., with the most likely times Weds. night and Friday. Temperatures will be probably be warmest Thurs., then we cooler weather for next weekend.
Model data from Sun. night: Highs next 3 days from the NAM for G.R.: 66-69-77, from the GFS plot: 64-68-75. The NAM takes G.R. to a low of 32 Tues. AM (too cool for the city), the GFS gives G.R. 37 and the European 40 or 41 – probably the best guess for the city. Outlying areas, esp. to the north may have a chc. of frost and the GRR NWS may have some counties under a Frost Advisory for Tues. AM with the updated forecast later today. The European would also take the temp. to 80 on Thurs. The GFS has highs in the mid 60s next weekend, the Euro. would be near 70. The Euro. has the most rain (and may be right) with G.R. getting 1.26″ from Weds. thru Friday. The GFS plot is at 0.43″. We could use some more rain.
They delayed the NFL game from Seattle Sunday night because of a thunderstorm. Seattle averages just 6 days a year when they get lightning or thunder (G.R. is 36) . Severe t-storms produced some damage from far N. Oregon to interior Washington, with gusts est. near 80 mph near Umatilla Ore., and 77 mph at Richland Wash. The storms downed trees, flipped a semi and reduced visibilities to as low as 1/4 mile in blowing dust. Colorado Springs added another 1.52″ of rain on Sunday. Boulder has had 13 days in a row with measurable rain. Denver has had 4.65″ of rain this month, compared to a Sept. avg. of 0.98″. North Platte NE had 2.82″ of rain on Sunday. The Pacific NW was hot, with record highs of 99 at Pendleton OR, 98 at Walla Walla WA and 94 at Yakima WA. Binghamton NY set a record low temp. of 36 and Saranac Lake NY had a low of 33. Tropical Storm Man-yi has weakened and moved past Japan, after dropping 3.74″ of rain on Tokyo on Sunday. Typhoon Usagi will be next, developing now and may hit China (E. China has been dry). Ingrid is now back from a weak hurricane to tropical storm.
SPC tracking the possibility of strong thunderstorms in Michigan with a cold front on Friday: “IT APPEARS THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/THURSDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD…A SIMILAR SEVERE RISK COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 5/FRIDAY.”