Chance Showers/T-Storms

September 19th, 2013 at 2:11 pm by under ArtPrize, Bill's Blog, Weather

Local Here’s radar and a satellite loop.  We will continue to have a chance of a shower or t-storm through at least the midday.  SPC has moved the Slight Risk Area farther west and the area is now pretty much everyone in Eastern Michigan, east of US 127.    Thursday evening’s storms in E. Iowa and S. Wisconsin produced many wind gusts of 40-65 mph, with several dozen reports of wind damage.   Severe storms produced large hail and wind damage in Minnesota earlier today.  One person was injured.

Thursday AM rainfall:  2.12″ Hart, 2″ White Cloud, 1.9″ near Muskegon St. Park, 1.75″ Hesperia, 1.6″ Mears, 1.57″ Traverse City, 1.06″ Orleans (Ionia Co.), 1.05″ near Holland, 0.98″ Allendale, 0.42″ Benton Harbor, 0.18″ Big Rapids, 0.11″ G.R. airport.  The clouds are holding down temperatures at this point.   Thunderstorms moved thru N. Illnois, thru the Chicago area and into N Indiana Weds. night, brushing far southern Berrien and SW Cass Counties.  Hail fell in Melrose Park, Rolling Meadows and Des Plaines, Illinois, with 1″ diameter hail in the Lakeview area of Chicago.  Power lines were downed in Sandwich, Illinois – west of Chicago.  There’s flooding in the Chicago area.   There was standing water impeding traffic on Lakeshore Dr. in Chicago and over 3.5 Monticello and Francesville Indiana, with 3.3″  in Whiting, Indiana.  Valparaiso Univ. had 1.5″ of rain in an hour.  .  We’ll see more rain and scattered stormstoday,  late Thurs. night (after 1 am) into Friday, where everyone should see significant rain (1/2 to 1″ possible).

The convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center show a Slight Risk Area for today over much of Wisconsin and a “See Text” for N. Indiana and NW Ohio for Friday.  West Michigan is in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for each day.

Temperature departure from average for Sept. 1-18:  Grand Rapids +0.7°, Holland +0.2°, Lansing -0.7°, Jackson -0.5°, Kalamazoo +1.0°, Battle Creek +0.9°.  Lots of warm air in the center of the country.  Highs Weds:  95 Pierre SD, everyone in Nebraska was in the low-mid 90s, 88 St. Louis, 94 Wichita KS and Oklahoma City, 97 Dallas.  Cool air is starting to move in.  The high was just 54 in Lewistown MT, 49 at Cut Bank MT., and 46 at Calgary, Alberta.

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

75 Responses to “Chance Showers/T-Storms”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    What a difference a year makes.

    Last year at this time GR was quickly descending into fall. In 2012, GR’s last 80 degree day of the year was September 12th, and on September 23th the high temperature was only 57 degrees.

    This year, summer is lingering. GR will likely hit the low to mid 80′s on Thursday, and another crack at 80 later next week.

    Also, the fall foliage is way behind last year.

    Here is a photo posted on the blog on September 12th, 2012:

    http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2012/09/Grand-Rapids.jpg

    Here’s that same location downtown on September 16th of this year:

    http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2013/09/reportit-tom.jpg

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Flint will be below average for September tomorrow ;) . Be sure to post about it as we wait with bated breath…

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        ZING!

        1. arcturus says:

          ZING back! Pwned.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          LOL

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wrong. Flint is still positive it looks like, and today will only raise those temps.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          You are correct, the MD-80 effect kept Flint at +0.1° for September so far.

  2. Bill Steffen says:

    You want to see “what a difference a year makes”…look at the dramatic increase in ice extent in the Arctic in the last year: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png Look at how much more ice there is compared to last year! The National Snow and Ice Data Center says: “Arctic sea ice extent as of September 16, 2013 was 5.10 million square kilometers (2.00 million square miles). This is substantially more ice than observed on the same date last year.” Look at the cold air building up already in the Arctic: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=

    From this link: http://econnexus.org/arctic-voyages-2013-update-2/

    “According to the Arctic Joule’s ice router, Victor:

    Residents of Resolute (Canada) say in 20 years have not seen anything like this. Its, ice, ice and more ice. Larsen, Peel, Bellot, Regent and Barrow Strait are all choked. That is the only route to East. Already West Lancaster received -2C temperature expecting -7C on Tuesday with the snow.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Awesome time lapse video produced recently showing the minimum Actic sea ice volumes every September from 1979 to 2012. 2013 ice coverage has bounced back a little but not much at all when looking at the long-term trend.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgiMBxaL19M

      Too much of the time people only focus on ice coverage and not on ice thickness. This is a common mistake, and I’ve noticed that on this blog as well.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        It’s NOT a mistake to look at ice extent, which is up a whopping 58% year-to-year. It’s ignored only by those who’s political bias smothers any sense of objectivity.

        Think for a minute how ice volume might be accurately (or more likely inaccurately) estimated. Obviously, we don’t have a network of observations to work with. What does that leave you with? Most of these estimates come from a grant-funded group in Washington state that runs PIOMAS and puts out a computer model. It’s not observation-based…it’s a computer model and we all know how well the computer models have done forecasting recent weather and climate: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg The PIOMAS model has already been adjusted by 28% (hardly a small error) and it’ll have to be adjusted again.

        Satellite observations began in 1979, after 3 brutally cold Northern Hemisphere winters (1976-77 was the coldest winter of the last 100 years in G.R., 1977-78 brought us the Blizzard of January ’78, followed by the coldest February and the 5th coldest March ever in G.R. and in 1978-79, Lake Michigan froze over). After 3 winters like that, you’d expect Arctic ice to be at a maximum, not an average extent.

        In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic ice has been growing for over 25 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png The temperature at the South Pole has been getting slightly colder: http://www.john-daly.com/stations/amundsen.gif

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Glaciology is a tricky subject. When you try to simplify the subject to pure ice coveravge, you can get into trouble.

          Everyone agrees that the southern ocean is warming along with the rest of the world’s oceans. So why is antarctic sea ice still growing?

          Studies have shown that westerly winds have been getting much stronger around the South Pole. The wind is merging ice together and ridging – leaving wider areas of surface exposed to cold winds.

          So while technically ice is increasing thanks to this shallow sea ice, this is missing the bigger picture. Most studies have shown the more important land ice (ice shelves and deep glacial ice) to be significantly retreating.

          British scientists recently used declassified spy satellite imagery from 1963 to show this glacial retreat. Moreover, it is widely believed that the ice shelf is losing mass underwater even quicker than what can be seen from the air.

          http://www.nbcnews.com/science/spy-satellite-data-reveal-vulnerability-east-antarctica-ice-sheet-8C11027906

        2. Brad says:

          Thanks for the link, Travis. It’s good to see peer-reviewed science here. I hope Bill will read it and learn.

  3. Jacob G says:

    Currently on track in the temperature department as September was expected to come in a couple degrees warmer than average. Leaves are running a bit behind probably related to the cool and wet spring we had combined with a dry mid to late summer pattern. October looks cooler and wetter than normal at this point.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Cooler and wetter than normal?

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

      Granted, I’m waiting for the new update coming soon.

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        That shows warmer and wetter than normal.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Again CPC has no blue on the temperature map? Sorry CPC, that’s not right. I wonder what their response would be to the increased Arctic ice and the cool trend on the oscillations. We’ll see.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Actually, there is blue on the map. Up in Alaska.

          And you cite the CPC a lot – mainly just when it’s cold though I’ve noticed.

        2. yooper4021 says:

          Travis, your shtick is old and stale. If there is such a ‘cold bias’ on this blog and so many “common mistakes” are made here (e.g. Arctic and Antarctic ice coverage), go find a warmer and smarter blog…and quit insulting my intelligence. Please.

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          My shtick? Notice how quickly the blog became political and how ice levels were somehow brought into a discussion about local weather? Hmmm

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Travis is still on some heavy duty drugs. Give him a break – he can not help himself!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Maybe you should try some, might help you to think cleat and sensibly. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

  5. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Has anyone seen the 18z run of the HRRR? It is showing a rather significant amount of rain/thunderstorms developing around the lake shore around midnight and lasting all night long (looks like back building on the loop, especially in southern areas). Sure hope it is right, we are parched!

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Link?

  6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Does moisture affect when the leaves change? A lot wetter this year than last and the change is a bit later this year.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      A good fall color show means sunny, warm days and cool nights…along with ample rain. The main trigger of the fall color change is the shortening daylight, so extensive cloudiness (less daylight) in Sept./early October can hasten the color change.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Ah, thanks Bill.

  7. Kimoeagle says:

    Looks like Chicago is getting hammered right now, eh?

  8. Cort S. says:

    I love hearing thunder from 40-50 miles away. So low and grumbly. Thank you inversion.

    1. Jack says:

      CORT….Location ??? Staying CUED… ;-)

      1. Cort S. says:

        Holland for now.

        1. Jack says:

          That’s what I thought . You say for Now, What’s Next on your Agenda? Hey, Send some Low Grumbles G.R. Way. If ya Plz. ;-)

        2. Cort S. says:

          Salt Lake City is next!

        3. Jack says:

          In What Capacity, will you be Working in S.L.C. ?? If I may ask….. ;-)

        4. Cort S. says:

          Road Weather Forecasting for winter weather events all across Utah.

        5. Jack says:

          Sounds Like FUN…CORT !! Looking toward to IT?

        6. Cort S. says:

          You betcha!

  9. Skot says:

    Hearing Thunder in Marne, and watching the Radar AND seeing the BUBBLE in TOTAL effect.

    1. Jack says:

      In my Best Lawrence Welk VOICE….” Will someone Please Turn off The Bubble Machine “…….. Lol…. ;)

  10. Jack says:

    Looks Like Muskegon, Northward is getting a Decent LIGHT SHOW!!! Right Now…stay Cued..

    1. Skot says:

      Michael “Bubble” is in Effect Jack. No denying it buddy boy.

  11. Skot says:

    West Michigan Bubble tonight folks is The North Grand Haven Pier Northward to Downtown Benton Harbor Southward. Sleep well and give me my 70 grand a year, I bow out,collect 200 for passing Go, Cue this up Jackson……
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5gTBEci9wM

    1. Jack says:

      ” 10-4″……… Elenaor “.. Over and OUT…. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Stay ZZZED…loll….. ;-)

  12. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    Non stop lightning and decent rain fall South of Montague. When the lightning subsides i will check the guage and report it.

    1. Skot says:

      Yeah…that is exactly WhatBillwantstosaybutcant.

      1. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        3/10th’s. i am thinking of a new handel………..skottrystobefunnyandsmartbutitneverpansout. But everytime i type that out my ipad auto corrects the text to “skotsamentalmidget” so i will stick with the one i have.

  13. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Oh such a beautiful sight and sound!!! LOVE IT!! I’d say this is the best garden variety storms all season, very nice line! And it isn’t short lived so that is a big plus

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      1in of rain up here in Cedar, very much needed

  14. Nate(new era) says:

    No power here in New Era. It’s been out for about the last half hour.

  15. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – 3/10 of an inch of rain overnight. Half a dozen rumbles. Looks like yet another “write-off” day with clouds and rain.

  16. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Raining & thundering for the past few hrs here in southern Berrien. Doppler estimate is showing 1 inch + amounts so far.

  17. No Rain so far, Don’t need any!! Still cloudy,not gonna get to 84!! only 75 out. Above normal Temps for October from NWS!!! lol lol lol!!!

  18. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    4 to 5 inches of rain in southern Berrien county today? Is this true?

  19. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    .61 so far.

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Mid 80′s? Not a chance! Currently 73 degrees. Travis and the models are 100% wrong again!

    1. arcturus says:

      You’re one to talk. Put a lid on it.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        arcturus I mean fixxxer get a life! Rock n Roll will never die!

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      You ought to know. You haven’t been right once. Thanks for listening. I love it. Fantastic.

  21. Jack says:

    Hi BILL: Question 4 YOU !! My Wife Loves The TIE, you are Wearing Today. We Would LIKE a Detailed Explanation, of What it Contains, and if It has a Meaning ?? Staying CUED, and GOOOOOOO BADGERS. ;-)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The tie is from Robert Daskal (Chicago): http://www.robertdaskal.com/ I get more comments on his ties than any other ties I’ve ever owned.

      1. Jack says:

        Awesome BILL…Thanks !!! I LIKE His ” Motto”. Perfect Tie for ART- PRIZE !!! Keep Up The Great ” Live” at Art-Prize WORK. Irene and I…LOVE IT. Stay Cued, for ahhh Little THUNDER-n~ LIGHTNING ,!! After MIDNIGHT?? ;-)

  22. arcturus says:

    Wow, feels like mid July out there. Can’t recall saying that last year at this time.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      High temperature so far in G.R. today was 75, average high is 72.

      1. arcturus says:

        79% relative humidity. What’s the average temp humidity reading?

    2. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      You are high as a kite if you think it feels like July

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        That would explain a lot.

        1. arcturus says:

          The normal low temp in July is 62. The predicted low tonight is around 70. Any other meaningless comments?

        2. Brad says:

          That is an absurdly warm low for September.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          A warm front will do that.

        4. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          ya we are scorching hot!!! its crazy warm outside, turn on the ac.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          The predicted low tonight is 68. The record high minimum temperature for today is 70 in 1942. So, we’re not going to be quite as warm as we were 61 years ago. The record high minimum temperature for Friday (the 20th) isn’t in jeopardy because the low will be reached at 11:59 pm. The record high minimum temp. for 9/21 is 76 set back in those wonderfully warm 1930s (1931).

  23. arcturus says:

    Up to 84% relative humidity. That’s summer time readings.

    1. Brad says:

      Absolutely. I had a balmy, sticky 84F here today. There is no cold air in sight. My model hints at mid-upper 80s in early October, although I tend to dismiss those numbers this far in advance.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      You can find average relative humidity for Grand Rapids here on page 93: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ccd-data/CCD-2012.pdf The AVERAGE relative humidity in December in G.R. is 78%

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