Very Little Severe Weather

September 20th, 2013 at 4:15 am by under ArtPrize, Bill's Blog, Weather

0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook  The only report of severe weather in the U.S. on Friday was a report of roof damage and some trees down 9 miles southeast of Natchez, Mississippi.   The t-storms that crossed NW Ohio were not severe.  General thunderstorms today (Sat.) for the East Coast and especially down south, where heavy rain could fall from SE Texas to S. Carolina.  There will also be isolated storms in the Pacific NW and the Intermountain Region.

BTW, a “See Text” means that there is a 5% chance of a severe report within 25 miles of a given location. The Slight Risk area says there is a 15% chance of a severe report within 25 miles of a given point in the outlined area. The main threat in the risk areas is isolated wind damage.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures and National lightning data. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven.

Add:  Taiwan radar to follow typhoon Usagi.,.will probably come ashore on the mainland just north of Hong Kong.  Here’s a satellite loop showing the eye of the storm passing by the south tip of Taiwan.    Also, nice valley fog picture from Pennsylvania Fri. AM.

 

88 Responses to “Very Little Severe Weather”

  1. The S H R E D D E R is tearing everything apart in mid MI!!

  2. Steven (Mt. Pleasant) says:

    Slight risk to both our west and our east? No surprises there.

  3. Jeff (Richland) says:

    I hope this cold front materializes because I have had barely any rain from the warm front and it is DRY here. We really need some rain. Not optimistic based on cold front expected timing.

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    80 and muggy here. Hoping for some good storms tomorrow.

  5. NO MORE RAIN!! With all the Rain in my area the last several weeks, towards evening got ate alive by them darn SKEETERS!!! Couldn’t pick my Raspberries, HORRIBLE THINGS!!!

  6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Woke up to a very warm 69 degrees. Still in the sweet spot for storms today!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        The most important line in that discussion is cloud cover limiting instability…the threat of severe weather is not zero, but it’s (IMHO) pretty small even in SE Michigan.

        1. ~Sandy~ from DeWitt/Clinton County says:

          good! I’m camping in South Haven tonight – Sunday!

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Latest SPC mesoanaylsis is showing the 0-1 km shear around 20Kts, about 1000 j/kg sbcape and both low/mid level lapse rates just under 6 c/km. Main threats with storms that develop will be winds and heavy rains, with potential flooding concerns.

        3. Brad (Van Buren) says:

          We are camping in South Haven also. What campground are you at Sandy?

  7. arcturus says:

    Chalk up at least another 10 degree above average day yesterday. Looks like September will easily be above old normal average.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Which was well forecast by me, if you’ve been paying attention, arc. I said 1-3 deg. above average and it’ll be closer to the 1 than the 3.

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    It was a rather warm mid September night last night with a low of only 69° so far at the airport, If GR were not to fall below that 69° reading before midnight we would tie the record warmest minimum for the day last set in 1978. (of course we have to make it to midnight first). After today we look to cool down to more early fall like temps for the next several days. Now what will October bring? It still looks to stay on the mild side for the next month or so. At least several models hint at that happing and the CPC is also guessing that as well.
    Here is the CPC’s guess.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

    But then what?? The new CPC’s long range guess is now hinting at a equel chance for the upcoming winter and for them that a change from their usual above average guess during the colder months

    Here is the CPC’s guess for the winter of 2013/14 (note how far they stick there nick out LOL

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

    Slimjim

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Give me a mild, dry Halloween for trick-or-treating, and I’ll be thrilled!!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      G.R. will definitely fall below 69 by midnight, well below 69.

  9. Lots of EC on both temperature and precipation long range!!! usually above normal Temps on the long range forecasts…… lol NWS !!! cloudy, cloudy, no storms today!!!

  10. ~Sandy~ from DeWitt/Clinton County says:

    Ugh – I have camping reservations tonight near Port Huron….Hope we aren’t setting up right in the middle of it!! :)

  11. kevin. w says:

    The weather channel this morning said that the storms out in the far pacific could make for a big weather pattern change toward October.

  12. kevin. w says:

    The NAO is about to go off the charts negative and I have never seen the pacific so active with storms. The new euro ensemble and GFS have a big push of cold air the first week of October, could be snow flurries coming in a few weeks…..ROCKY:)

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      Will not happen…and you can take that to the bank.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      You are your supposed cold models that you’ve been talking about since the end of August… I think you have snow on the brain.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Well if we keep having your warm brain here all winter there be no bank come spring. No one will spend any money if it ends up the way you want it. I’m just looking at the models so what your saying is by bashing me and what Bill has been saying about colder and some snow in October. Whatever.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Be no bank come spring? No one will spend money?

          I don’t really understand your post. Just be careful with those long-range computer models, that’s all. You keep citing them, and they keep letting you down since August.

          I take it you must be a snowplower or something? And a big winter is directly tied to your income in some way.

        2. yooper4021 says:

          Here fishy, fishy, fishy…

        3. Dan says:

          Oh but you can continually bash Bill and Kevin in your posts, Travis? You are such a hypocrite! It is not even funny. Bill has been posting with a high percentage of accuracy! In fact, he gets it right FAR more than he misses it. Kevin is very good with his long range analysis. He never says its going to happen. He does post what the models are showing. Travis you don’t even post a forecast. So tired of your misinformation and your warm bias. It has got to make you wonder why you post. Then, you have the gall to put kevin down? You don’t even know what he does! Please stop insulting and bashing others!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Get a life!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          There’s an idea you should try.

    3. arcturus says:

      Please provide link which discusses snow flurries because Dan says you don’t say it’s going to happen.

      1. Dan says:

        The voice of reason, arcturus? NOT! Nice try though. You and Travis should get together to share ideas about ice! Trouble is, you don’t agree with the premise so it would be like two government workers getting together to study the effects of crab grass on the ant hills.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          +1

        2. arcturus says:

          Sorry Dan, just asking for facts. You should try using them some time.

  13. snowsearch says:

    So does Max get another shot at number 20 tonight? Earlier today, the NWS over there was saying 80% chance of 1/2″ – 3/4″ this afternoon and than again tonight.

  14. Dan says:

    We have had enough rain. We had a light shower last night. We had almost an all day rain event on Thursday, not quite but we did receive a lot of rain. It can get sunny and dry again for awhile!
    MAX will get win number 20! Well, he should! Tigers are playing an inferior team! I hope Miggy can get some MUCH needed rest and recovery prior to the beginning of the post season. Magic number is now 4! Lets go Tigers!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Dunno where you are, but we are bone dry here.

      1. Dan says:

        Jeff: My location is 84th Street and 131. We have had a decent amount of rain. We did not receive the 5 inches of rain that we got a couple of weeks ago. My sump pump has been running pretty regularly.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        We have had very light rain/sprinkles on and off today (Cascade Twp) – just enough to dampen the parking lot, but that’s it.

        Agree on the Tigers Dan! Would be great to see them clinch the division at home this weekend. Unfortunately, with Cleveland playing the Astros (worst team in baseball), I’m guessing we’ll be waiting until early next week to celebrate.

  15. Paul says:

    So where is this above average hurricane season that the government predicted? I think the NWS needs to get out of the business of predicting and just report and forecast what’s on their radar, lol.

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      Just wait, wait, wait till next June.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      I, for one, am glad for the botched forecast. Heading to Florida with the family next week, so very pleased with the relatively calm tropics!

    3. Cort S. says:

      And as for private companies and academic institutions…? Maybe no meteorologist should attempt any long-term prediction, then, since it’s not 100% accurate?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_forecasts

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Maybe they shouldn’t if they just try to install fear in the people

        1. Cort S. says:

          What if that’s not their intention (key word you used: “try”), and they actually try to be as realistic as they can be with the current state of the science? Unlike what the recent blog culture here has been subscribing to, not everyone has an ulterior motive to try to spin the numbers to try to “win” the climate change game. You can more easily blame national media for trying to instill fear in people.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Speaking of instilling unwarranted fear, look how far National Geographic has sunk: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/20/national-geographics-junk-science-how-long-will-it-take-for-sea-level-rise-to-reach-midway-up-the-statue-of-liberty/ Joe D’Aleo’s got a nice rebuttal to National Geographic at WeatherBell Premium

        3. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          Thanks Bill for the link, to funny yet sad to think that people believe it!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      :-) Not that it will hang around for more than a few minutes…. but it’s still a nice thought :-)

  16. kevin. w says:

    Longer range will update on October on Sept. 30 and I’m sure they’ll cut out the above normal stuff, but if they don’t I see more downs with temps. than I do up. And by the way the new euro just update here much, much cooler. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010040812!/

    1. Jacob G says:

      I was just going to post that link, thanks for staying on this Kevin. I do believe that parts of MI will see their first flurries in early October.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on Kevin – keep up the good work!

  17. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Travis and his comments are 100% worthless! He is a joke and his comments and analysis are very unreliable! His warm weather bias and sickness is taking a toll on his mental capacity. He is fantasy land as usual. I am sure he will tell us it almost hit 90 degrees in Flint this week! LOL

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Talk about worthless, that would be you. Your obsession with Travis is scary. You need more help than Travis. Seek it fast. I’m sure you’ll be talking about a non exsistent snow storm for GR next week. Your cold weather bias is a joke. Thanks for listening. Get used to it. Fantastic.

      1. Dan says:

        Pot meet kettle!

        1. Jack says:

          Lol…. ” I don’t know much about Kettle, But I Know a lot about ” POT” !! Lolololo…. Stay Cued, and Go Tigers ! 20 4 MAD MAX 2 TONIGHT ? ;-)

        2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          What’s it to you? So it’s ok for someone to constantly bash someone because of what the person believes in but the person doing the bashing can’t be bashed. He’s a pinhead and you are a hypocrite and apparently the pinheads groupie. Thanks for listening. Fantastic.

        3. Dan says:

          Rodey give it up man. You are outmatched by Rocky! Its too bad you cannot think of your own thoughts though. Rodey is obsessed with Rocky. Who knew? The new normal?

        4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer = brain dead wimp!

        5. arcturus says:

          ‘Outmatched by Rocky.’ Now there’s a good one! Lol, that says it all.

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    RDB Winter Forecast for GR ………… near to below normal temps and above average SNOWFALL! We will be seeing over 100 inches of SNOW, so get ready people. ROCK n ROLL is here to stay!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      You’re probably right…no thunderstorms during the warm season (boo) and too much snow during the cold season (boo). Yes, before anyone says it, if I could move, I would.

  19. Jeff (Richland) says:

    I can’t believe the NWS forecasted 100% chance of rain today, and we got NOTHING. Really??? It looks like a good chunk of the viewing area ended up with less than 1/10″ (like me) from this entire storm system warm front and cold front. Beyond frustrated with forecasting, I know it is far from an exact science, but when a majority of rain/thunderstorm forecasts don’t materialize, it’s beyond belief. I knew the NWS was wrong, I called it early yesterday to my wife, told her I don’t see any way we will get the rain they are predicting, studying the HRRR, and I was correct. Bill, would love your thoughts on why this happens so often. Is West Michigan weather really that hard to predict or are the GR NWS meterologists really that incompetent? You do a great job Bill, your predictions are often spot on or very close to reality, though I think you were a bit off this time around calling for .5-1″ for the area. :) West Michigan is definitely a frustrating place to live for weather enthusiasts.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      +1 trillion!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I was really hoping to get a significant rainfall, but not so :-( Just enough to make it feel damp and blah….. I think the last measurable (over a tenth of an inch) rain was back in August for us….

    3. kevin. w says:

      Of course you can believe it thats how they work there good psychological forecasters. Its called pathological lying, gets you pumped up to bring ya crashin’.

  20. Hugh says:

    I’ve been battling 2 bee nests underground. Can’t hardly go out the door. 3 cans of spray, friend dug it up with shovel, poured bleach on the site. Apparently, rain does not even touch it. Does winter kill them? This is really crummy, being so close to the door and all. Tell me what you know (except for fizzzle)

    1. kevin. w says:

      Wait til tomorrow when the temp gets below 48 degrees as they can’t fly at that temperature. They will most likely be all the nest to protect it. You can run the hose over it for about a half hour that will drown them but you don’t need to run it full blast. Put a round rock over the hole but sure you know the exact entrance of the nest and you should be good to go. The trickling of water will flood the nest works everytime for ground bees. Good luck and be careful the hive sometimes will attack and that could be deadly. Good luck.

      1. Hugh says:

        thank you!

        1. kevin. w says:

          Probably tomorrow evening or Sunday morning but be sure to watch the temps.

    2. Scott (Robinson twsp) says:

      Had a friend tell me to just put a clear Tupperware container over the hole with weight on it and they will die in a couple days. They still see light so they won’t dig another hole. They starve I guess. I bee sprayed the hole then put bowl over it never saw another one.

  21. kevin. w says:

    I have heard that there is going to be a huge polar vortex set up shop within the next few weeks just west of Hudson bay and should start to crank out some storms once we get into October. The pacific ocean has had very intense storms/typhoons and that negative dynamics/strong jet max will be influencing our weather here once we get into October. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a true November storm in October this year. I’m sure Bill will agree with me on this as there is a tremendous amount of energy out in the pacific and that energy is now showing up on the longer range models. In fact some significant snow will fall in rockies this weekend and baniff in Canada has experienced its first EARLY snows. Put that in your pipe Travis and have a good smoke and no I’m not a snowplow guy just the normal guy like Rocky. :) )

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Travis is on heavy duty drugs – maybe he is smoking something very strong! He will be telling us that we are having above average temperatures in October even though the temps are in the 40′s. Totally ridiculous!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Rocky, face it, you are obsessed with Travis. It is obvious YOU are the one that needs meds. Fantastic. Get used to it. Thanks for listening once again…

  22. What Rain? lol…lol NWS 1.50 – 2 inch values!!! lol…lol!! Other note, Gas prices soaring!!! Must be due to the weather lol lol…….Murphy USA $3.21 in St Johns to $3.65 at Greedway in Mason,so much for gas prices leveling off to the low $3.00 range!!!

    1. kevin. w says:

      Now with all obamacare/economic shutdown Oct. 1 might plan on another gas hike..or two.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Keep dreaming. Gas will never be the low $3.00 range again.

  23. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Hey Bill! You probably had a lot of people waving at you and what not tonight, I knocked on the window shortly after 6 p.m. when you were sitting in the corner by the computer. The kids thought it was cool you you turned around waved at us. They always get a kick out of seeing you “live” and in person!

  24. Dan says:

    Tigers up 7-1 in the 4th! Mad Max to get win number 20! Go Tigers!

  25. INDY says:

    Yeaaaa Travis has HEAT 4 brains…..INDYY

  26. Jack says:

    A Change is Coming . The Migrating ” Robins” are on The Move in The Last Few Days Here at My Place . Stay Cued !! ;-)

  27. Barb says:

    Even though we have above average rainfall for the year, we’ve had below average rainfall every month since at least June. We need more rain.

  28. Jack says:

    DDDDDDDD……………DDDDDDDDDDD…… MAD MAX GETS #20…. MAGIC Number IS 3!!!! Stay cued… :-)

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