Midweek Sunshine

September 24th, 2013 at 5:46 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

lake michigan paul reportit    Lake Michigan pic. from Paul at ReportIt.  See it full screen.  There has been some isolated patchy fog during the early morning.   The overnight computer model runs have rain starting either late Sat. night or Sunday am.  So, it looks like we’re dry through the day on Saturday.  The European gives G.R. 0.20″ of rain Sunday, mostly in the PM and the GFS is a little wetter (0.66″) with the rain Sunday all day on and off.  We’ll see lots of sun this week and temps. will warm about 3 deg. each day.   Through Monday, G.R. is only +0.3 deg. warmer than average for the month and we’ll erase all or most of that with our cool morning.  There were no severe weather reports in the U.S. on Monday.  Death Valley CA was the only spot to reach 100 Monday aftn. (they hit 101).  There were some warm places:  highs of  94 Phoenix, 91 Brownsville TX, 80 Grand Forks ND…and some cool spots:  highs of 48 at Caribou ME, 53 at Binghamton NY and 58 at Pittsburgh.  Heavy rains are soaking parts of Florida.  The ACE Index…a measure of the number and intensity of tropical cyclone active is at 173.  Average to this date is 377, so we’re down by about 55%.   The first snow of the season fell around Anchorage AKThe latest article on climate change and the IPCC.  With mostly clear skies, check out the list of flyovers of the International Space Station.  Nice shelf cloud approaching North Miami yesterday.  The NWS in Gaylord is doing winter spotter training.   Here’s the Pure Michigan weekly fall color report.     Also, the challenges of winter.  Heavy flooding in the Philippines with 16 fatalities and at least 40 fatalities in Pakistan earthquake.

22 Responses to “Midweek Sunshine”

  1. Barry in Zeeland says:

    I laughed a little when I read ‘winter spotter training’. I picture someone looking out their window and reporting, “I see snow, and it looks like winter outside”. Funny.

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Looks like this rather chilly morning will be the last one we see for 10 days or more.

    Considering the sun angle is now equal to mid March, this coming warm up to around 80 degrees is pretty impressive.

    Peak foliage running a week or two behind last year. This delay may mute the colors a bit as well.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I don’t know for sure but with the sunny warm days and cooler longer nights the color may pick up real fast in the next week to ten days. Time will tell.
      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        If you want bright colors, then dry and cool conditions are best.

        If anything, this pending warm up may prolong them even further. The one bit of good news is that it looks dry.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Sunshine, or the lack there of, is the biggest factor for leaves to turn. We’ve had a lot of sunshine.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      It of course depends on how you define “chilly”, Travis. This morning it was 34 in Flint, 13 deg. below the avg. low of 47 (Flint is now down to only +0.6 above avg. for Sept. and today is going to knock out most of that). The NWS is forecasting a low of 39 to 43 tonight (I’d go with the lower number). That’s 4 to 8 deg. cooler than avg. If it does make 80 in Flint, that would be as far above avg. as the 59 on Sunday was below avg. For Flint the record highs from Oct. 3 – 8 are all 88 or 89, so it certainly can get warmer than 80 at this time of year.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        The most abnormal day of September was by far September 10th when I was +21 degrees above average for the record high and +23 above averages for the low that night.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          And now on the 24th, we are back down to just 0.1 deg. warmer than average for the month.

  3. pony says:

    ice on car windows again this morning.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    The NWS office in Grand Rapids has issued its summery for the summer of 2013 and it now official that the summer of 2013 was the coldest in west Michigan since 2009 (not that long ago really) here is their summary for the summer

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/presentations/Summer_2013_Climate_Summary_2013-09-09_04-33-26.pdf

    And today was another cool morning and I had a low of 40 here at my house but looks like it will warm up for a while now, enjoy the nice days we have coming as I am sure they are numbered. Also lets hope the Tigers can win tonight. One has to wonder why they score so few runs so many games.
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      That’s really saying something is -0.2 (essentially average) for GR is the coldest since 2009.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        But it does say something that the four coolest Julys ever in G.R. have all come relatively recently, since 1992. Remember I told you that the decade of the 1930s was one degree warmer in G.R. than the decade of the 2000s.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I remember hearing temperatures from the 1930′s ought not to be trusted.

        2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          Travis, let’s assume you are correct that the 1930′s temperature records are unreliable. If so, then it’s safe to assume that all temperature records pre-1940 are unreliable. Which leaves us, at most, with the timeframe of 1940 to 2013 for which to evaluate “climate change.” If the records pre-1940 are useless, how can scientists conclude that the climb in global temperatures is as significant as they claim it is? Are they really going to use a mere 70 years of data (which you are obviously smart enough to realize is not that significant) to conclude that we are headed for catistrophic warming? You can’t have it both ways Travis.

        3. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          *catastrophic

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Researchers from Harvard and Oregon State recently teamed up to study the past 11,000 years. Here is the conclusion of their study that was just published two weeks ago:

          http://kottke.org/13/09/temperature-chart-for-the-last-11000-years

        5. Brad says:

          But they’re grant-funded and can’t be trusted. Kind of like doctors and petroleum engineers.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis…regarding your link…I’m sure glad that we seemed to have stopped that nearly 4,000-year temperature slide! That looked scary! They shouldn’t use a 1961-1990 average. The year is 2013 and NOAA and the NWS use the 1981-2010 average: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html Actually, your graph at the link is pretty useless. There’s no way we know what the global temperature was within a tenth of a degree 11,000 years ago.

          Global temperatures have leveled off since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

  5. Marti B. (newly located in SE Grand Rapids, MI) says:

    Well…….I don’t really care for winter anymore, at age 62 with some medical issues, it’s just very hard for me to get around in. But….if it’s going to be winter pretty soon, then let it be a good winter with tons of snow, blizzards and cold! No ice storms though! No early March 80 degree weather either. I’ll be hunkered down in my new 2nd level apartment in SE Grand Rapids, enjoying the view through my nice big north-facing windows!! :)

  6. GunLakeDeb says:

    I think the heavy morning dew is the only thing keeping our grass from turning brown :-( I noticed, where my Hubby drove a car across the lawn, the grass hasn’t sprung back. On the other hand, I see a lot of farmers harvesting corn, so the dry spell is certainly helping them!

  7. Jack says:

    Speaking of SUNSHINE !!! Cue Katrina & The Waves… ” Walking on SUNSHINE” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CeRWTdYFY8 Enjoy….. :-)

  8. Jack says:

    Followed By….” Blue Sky” , Allman Brothers ,, CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1jpQu6qR1E. TURN IT UP!!!!! :-)

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