Forecast Update

September 27th, 2013 at 4:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Sunset Lincoln Lake  A quick update…sunny and warm today…upper 70s to near 80, light SE winds.  Warm Saturday, near 80 with clouds approaching by sunset as in the picture.  Rain Saturday night, mainly from midnight to 8 am.  The overnight model runs printed out a little more rain than before with the European model now the highest with 0.59″, the NAM has 0.46″ and the GFS is now at 0.31″.  The clouds should move east and we’ll get some sun Sunday PM.  It’s mostly sunny and warm for much of next work week, with temps. cooling to the upper 60s Sunday, but back near 80 for the middle of next week.  The GFS is dry from Sunday midday thru Friday, the European is about the same with rain and (significantly) cooler temperatures around 10/5.

67 Responses to “Forecast Update”

  1. Dan says:

    The nice Fall keeps rolling into the weekend. Do those rain chances for Sunday look to be high chances? According to the forecast, rain should be out of here by around 10 am. I also saw that the highs were bumped up for next week.
    No cool downs yet. I bet we will go from a 60 degree high to the bottom falling out sometime in mid October. We shall see!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      98% chance of rain Saturday night into very early Sunday…band of rain…lasts maybe 4 or 5 hours will pass thru the area, mainly between midnight and 8 am.

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Looks like the mild air will continue well into October. Granted, averages drop fast.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    I hit 79 degrees yesterday – my normal high is 68.

    NWS Gaylord has a good write up on the fall foliage. Says they are a good week behind last year. I think we closer to two weeks behind here in Lower Michigan:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=73373&source=0

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      The next week to ten days look to be nice with warm days and cool nights so that could lead to a rapid color change in that time. So we could catch up real fast. It should be noted that the due to the colder spring this year the leaves did not come out as soon as some of the recent past years so it could stand to reason that the leaves will change/fall at a later time.
      SlimJim

      1. Barb says:

        Also, it’s been very dry in some parts, so the leaves are drying up and falling.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Just an inch of rain in G.R. so far this month, about 23% of average for the entire month of Sept. We’ll get rain Saturday night.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Temperatures are only 0.3 deg. above average for Sept. in G.R. and we are 0.4 deg. BELOW average since August 1 – so the slow fall color change is not due to temperatures. It’s mainly due to the above average amount of sunshine. The fall color change is related to the amount of daylight the trees receive. We’ve had 70% of possible sunshine this month.

  3. D says:

    How significant around 10/5 is (significantly cooler)??

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      We could see a couple days with highs in the 50s.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While the Accu less weather official winter guess is not going to be issued until around October 9th their long range guesser Paul Pastelok has some of his ideas for the winter out. And some of his ideas are somewhat in line with some of Bill’s ideas. If Paul’s ideas pan out we would be between the core of the cold to our NW and the core of warmer temps to our SE. With the storm track starting out to our west (that would bring rain here) to the storm track moving just to our SE by mid winter (could be more snow here if not too far to the SE) and a up and down trend to the winters temps.
    SlimJim

  5. Dan says:

    Good post, Slim! Nobody really knows for sure. Seems, like we will stay mild.
    However, I could it see the cool/colder air come in and make a rapid change.
    Kind of like a couple of those days we had in July. However, the contrast would be even greater and the cool/cold will stay longer. As far as the storm track that definitely bears watching. We didn’t get a lot of synoptic events last Winter. If memory serves me correctly, we received a lot of LES. How does it play this Winter?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      LOL!! I just read last week that the UN and the IPCC were at odds with their 2007 predictions – they predicted that there would be NO Arctic Ice by 2013 – yet now we have ships stuck in the early-and-spreading Arctic Ice. It seems that there were supposed to be 1500 changes made to data before this report came out – I’m guessing they didn’t bother.

      I JUST read an editorial on CNN.com that was talking about a small town in Alaska, who’s permafrost is melting. Of course, they are blaming that on Global Warming….

      Melting permafrost is always a problem in Alaska, especially for the road crews, because it makes terrible dips in the roadway. As one drives to Alaska, you first encounter these roller-coaster dips around Destruction Bay in the YT. But as you cross into Alaska, there are signs indicating that the Alaskan Road Commission has designed an experimental section of road that stops the permafrost from melting – and from what we saw – it works wonderfully!! What do they do?? They drive 9″ corrugated steel tubes at a diagonal under the roadbed – TO VENT THE GROUND HEAT AWAY FROM THE ROAD. Alaska is geothermal – THAT has absolutely nothing to do with human interference and everything to do with Plate Tectonics.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      In the new report being released, I see they actually increased their sea level projections from their 2007 report to now an 10-32″ rise by the end of the century. Previous was 7-23″. This is because the waters have been rising even faster than they thought.

      They also widened their range for the rise in temps. They are now forecasting a rise of 0.5 – 8.6 F in temps by the end of the century.

      There’s also a lot more data on ocean temperatures and how they are actually more important to the story than purely measuring air temperature. Up to 90% of the warmth increase is being stored in the ocean, and these temperatures have increased faster than most of their previous models over the past several decades.

      All good things. More actual fact and less fuzzy, pie-in-the-sky predictions.

      “There are few surprises in this report but the increase in the confidence around many observations just validates what we are seeing happening around us,” said Samantha Smith, of the World Wildlife Fund.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        +.5 – +.8.6F? Nice range….sounds like a LOW confidence prediction,imo; kinda like saying i expect gas prices to go up to somewhere between $10 – $50/gal by 2050!That said, IF temps. rise globally by 8.6 degrees by 2100- tickets to MARS are on me! (assuming i live to ripe age of 136;)

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I am all in favor of wider air temperature ranges as no one can exactly predict mother nature in the short-term. The ocean temperatures have been a much smoother upward climb than much more volatile air temperatures.

          Also, if you read the report, the lower end of the air temperature range is given in the event global steps are taken to combat pollution and harmful environmental practices.

          How can you make a tight-ranged prediction if you have no idea what the pollution is going to look like 80+ years from now?

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Pollution or CO2? Steps have been & will continue to be taken to eradicate polluted air (especially China)….but as for CO2, BILLIONS more vehicles will be on the road + heating/cooling needs associated w/ twice the population we currently have, so unless Einstein Jr. develops a clean,EFFICIENT and CHEAP energy ALTERNATIVE to fossil fuels CO2 LEVELS globally will continue to rise.Besides, hasn’t the damage already been done according to most alarmists- leading us into the worst case scenario?

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Note – the one place that CO2 levels are dropping is in the U.S. We are the only industrialize country to actually meet our Kyoto Accord goal: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1

          Like global land temperatures, global sea-surface temperatures have been flat for the last decade: http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/1-global-month.png

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          St. Louis, Missouri averages 8 degrees warmer than Grand Rapids. They still have winter in St. Louis. Most of the trees, flowers, animals and people would survive just fine if the temperature warmed up 8 degrees. Of course, that’s not going to happen. The Detroit Lions will go undefeated for 50 years before we’d see that scale of climate change…and if we do, it won’t be because of CO2.

        5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Not sure what chart you’re looking at but definitely a steady rise higher.

          NOAA data;

          http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s current sea-surface temperature anomaly: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.26.2013.gif Look at all the cold water around Antarctica, where they reached a record ice extent and where the South Pole has showed cooling temperatures over the past decade. Some of the warm water in the N. Hemisphere is due to relatively light winds. When the fall storms stir the water, you’ll see some of that yellow (like off the coast of Washington) go away. Also, note that we have a very quiet hurricane season with warmer than average water over much of the North Atlantic. Hint to global warming alarmists…warm water is not the only reason you get big hurricane seasons. There was talk after Katrina (which only produced Category 1 winds in New Orleans) that every year we’d see more and bigger hurricanes. We’ve now had the longest stretch in recorded history without a Category 3 or higher hurricane hit on the U.S.

          Sea level is very stable at this moment.

  6. Barry in Zeeland says:

    I’ve had three different people ask me if I’m going to see the sky lanterns in GR tonight….anybody know if this is really happening or not? I’ve looked all over the Artprize page and googled it but came up with nothing. Someone start a false rumor? I’d like to believe it’s happening again cuz last year was AWESOME.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Tried looking for you. Can’t find anything either.

      Must not be happening because I found a zillion articles about cat movies being played at ArtPrize tonite ha

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      This may have a lot to do about not finding (or having) a sky lantern launch this year.

      http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/10/fallout_from_lights_in_the_nig.html

      SlimJim

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Makes sense. Take something huge and beutiful that includes everyone and squash it into the ground. Anyone who knows anything about sky lanterns or physics know that they can not just come down and light something on fire. If there was even a slim chance of this happening, it would have happened last year with TWENTY THOUSAND of them being sent off. Typical government people, if they aren’t making a profit on it, get rid of it.

        1. Jack says:

          **** LIKE*****. Stay CUED!! ;-)

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      One benefit of way less arctic sea ice. Saved 1,000 miles and $80,000 ha

      First bulk carrier to ever cross.

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Did it back in 1969!!! So how can you say less if it was already done?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I said first bulk carrier. 75,000 tons. The 1969 voyage required assistance and barely made it.

          “Climate change is advancing more quickly to the point where the Northwest Passage has become a more viable shipping route, roughly 30 years earlier than most scientists estimated it would,” said Michael Byers, an international law expert at the University of British Columbia. “I don’t celebrate the opening of the Northwest Passage to shipping because it does raise enormous challenges to Canada and for countries around the world in terms of dealing with climate change and its consequences.”

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          “At many Eastern places of NWP locals have not seen this type ice conditions. Residents of Resolute say 20 years have not seen anything like. Its, ice, ice and more ice.”

          This is from Aug. 30, 2013: http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/08/warmist-arctic-rowers-fail-of-resolute.html

          Look at the difference in ice extent from one year ago: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

    2. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

      Kind of ironic that the first vessel to travel that route was laden with coal.

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Travis you are delusional! We are heading into a “global cooling” period. Get ready to Rock n Roll!!

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Is that your argument against the fact that it has happened? Try again little guy.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You had better take your meds and thanks for listening baby boy!!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Instead of repeatimg the same thing over and over like a pinhead, why don’t you try refuting Travis with data and facts. A foreign concept to you I’m sure, who knew? Thanks for listening. Fantastic. I love it.

        2. kevin. w says:

          Because Rocky keeps things sweet and simple and doesn’t give us a five paragraph bunch of bologna, garbage and horse manure. Thanks for listening. Fantastic. I love it.

        3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          I’ll give you that. Rocky does keep his garbage, horse manure and bologna sweet and simple. Fantastic. Get used to it. I love it and as always, thanks for listening.

        4. Dan says:

          Hey Rocky, I appreciate reading your posts. Too bad others get jealous of you! Another beautiful day is coming up! When does the weather make that change to significantly cooler as Bill mentions? Then, does it stay cool?

  8. Hugh says:

    This is Stupid again, I am gone. I feel bad for Bill, he is a pro and has a very talented team. No person should treat Bill and his highly rated/college degree earned associates in this manner because of a crazy person.

  9. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    One thing is for sure: i am loving this warm weather! Keep it coming

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Amen to that.

  10. Jack says:

    Off Topic… R.I.P. Gates Brown ( The Gator) … :-(

    1. Dan says:

      Loved the Gator! He was a great Tiger. Sorry to hear about this!

  11. Brad says:

    No end in sight for 80F+ readings. This has been a trend in October over the last decade. I remember several years with readings up to the upper 80s the first week or so of the month. Lake Superior had swim-worthy water temps one of those years.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      That’s fine with me.

      1. Brad says:

        We’re not talking about campus attire, Mark…

        1. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

          My birthday is in late October, and I can remember years in the early 90′s driving on my birthday with the top down on my little convertible. (Had a bonfire and slept outside by the fire for my 22nd, in fact)
          I can also remember 1 year going to Polaski days in early October with remnants of snow/ice on the ground.
          Temps can be all over the place this time of year.

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Its called human controlled climate, but you already knew that, right. Just like the human controlled ice age meltdown, that created the great lakes. Hmm.

      1. Brad says:

        Right, because different mechanisms cannot be responsible for similar outcomes.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Brad obviously has not watched the Detroit Lions over the last 10 years.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      Wrong again, Brad…Friday was the first 80-degree day in half a month…Sunday’s forecast high is 70…Much cooler toward the end of next week…Including today’s 80, we are only 0.3 deg. warmer than average for Sept…And we remain 0.1 deg. below average since May 31…and 0.2 below average for 2013.

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      Brad…last October (2012) was cooler than average and the temperature never got warmer than the mid 70s during the month: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=grr

  12. Austin N. says:

    I LOVE reading Bill’s blogs…but this is what I hate about it!! Why do a lot of you have to be so rude and mean to each other on here!? Can’t you prove your points without belittling or name calling or cutting down each other!? I mean…common…I’m assuming we are all adults on here. You can disagree with someone yet still respect them and there opinion…no matter how much you disagree with them. So please stop acting like children and bullies and just enjoy Bill’s blog’s and agree or disagree without stooping to bullying and being mean!

  13. Brad says:

    Dr. Jeff Masters takes us on a tour of warming:

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

    Dr. Masters is a Michigan native and an active conservationist. Kudos!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Jeff Masters = V.P. of the White Star Line.

  14. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Back to back days in the low to mid 70s for nearly all of lower Michigan. Absolutely perfect weather.

    1. Brad says:

      I was briefly +80 yet again south of Kalamazoo, well above average.

      1. Jack says:

        98.6 is ” Your” Normal Temp. Brad , even ( I ) know Dat !!! Lol…. Stay CUED!!!! ;-)

      2. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Yes, it is above average right now. When it is below average, for some reason you are MIA. What gives?

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          *crickets*

      3. Brad says:

        Well, I’ll say this, Jack. I think Irish Coffee’s normal temp is 103.6!

        1. Irish coffee says:

          LOL…A/Ctually i prefer my coffee like my wx–COOL!Scottish Highlands would be IDEAL for my tastes…. cool>cold, snowy, wet, damp AND DREARY! I get S.A.D when the sun shines too much(also contributes to my migraines;(Just gimmee a stone castle w/ 100 rooms and 100 acres nestled amongst some conifer circa 2000ft. ASL!

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      GR hit 80 today. Back to back 79′s for me.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I know. I hope it continues.

  15. Jack says:

    * Stupid Thought of The Day” ………. Why do People Who are Doing a Puzzle, always Have Puzzled Look On Their Face ??? Hmmmmmmmm ….. ;-)

  16. Dan says:

    Good question Jack! Why do we park in driveways and drive on parkways? Why is there an expiration date. on sour cream? Why is there a lock on the door of a store that is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week?

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