Three Warm Dry Days

September 30th, 2013 at 12:02 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

maranda  This guy is either signaling “touchdown” as the Lions beat da Bears, or he’s really excited about being on Maranda’s TV-show (“Where you live”).  Maranda’s show is live this week by the Art Museum.  Come on down and watch the show live.  We often get the crowd involved.  Purdy the Clown will be there and maybe the very entertaining juggler that has been working the crowd the past few days.

This coming week will be the warmest week we will see until probably next April or even early May.  We’ve got three beautiful, warm early fall days coming up for Monday – Wednesday.  There will be patchy fog overnight.  With the later sunrise and the lower sun angle, the fog/low clouds may linger in some areas until mid-late morning, but everyone should see some sun in the PM.  Temperatures will be pleasantly in the low 70s Monday PM.  A surge of unseasonably warm air should push temperatures close to 80 (10-15 deg. warmer than average) for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Showers start at some point on Thursday and showers are  in the forecast for Friday and Saturday.  Significantly cooler air will arrive at some point next weekend.   The European is a little quicker with the cool air than the GFS and would have temperature in the mid-upper 50s on Sat.  The GFS keeps us in the relatively warm air Saturday, then the cool air pushes in for Sunday.  The Sunday PM European gives G.R. 1.03″ of rain late this week, the GFS has 0.39″ Thursday/Thursday night…a break for most of Friday, hen 0.29″ Fri. night into Sat…and .03″ on Sunday”.   This should be a significant change to a cooler pattern, so if you like sunny, warm weather – enjoy the next several afternoons.

Most of the country was warm Sunday, with a few of the relatively warm high temperatures:  74 Caribou ME, 83 Pierre SD, 92 Brownsville TX and 94 Phoenix AZ.  It was cool in the NW with highs of 56 at Seattle and Portland, 54 at Spokane and 42 at West Yellowstone MT.  Barrow, Alaska reports 5″ of snow on the ground and Noatak was 18 Sun. AM.    Rainfall in our area Sat. night/early Sunday totaled 0.25″ at Grand Rapids, 0.42″ at Muskegon, 0.17″ Kalamazoo, 0.60″ Houghton Lake, 0.48″ Sparta, 0.38″ Allendale, 0.29″ Middleville.  Heavy rain and strong winds in the Pacific NW.  Seattle had 1.71″ of rain.  Wind gusts hit 72 mph at Lincoln City OR, and check out the snow at Whistler/Blackcomb in British Columbia.   Here’s a picture of the meteor that lit up the sky Friday evening in Ohio.  There’s 5″ of snow on the ground in Barrow, Alaska.

28 Responses to “Three Warm Dry Days”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    If I did my math right, GR has had more 80+ days this September than any September for a number of years. The daily numbers I checked go back to 2008.

    While not in the 80′s, CPC keeps us warm compared to average into mid October:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    Made it to ArtPrize on Saturday. Great day!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      And yet GR is only +0.7 for the month.

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      CPC’s outlook changes every day. On Saturday, it had normal temps for us with above normal precip 8-14 days, now it’s above normal temps with below normal precip. Also it had a big chunk of below normal temps in the center of the nation, which has now completely disappeared.

      1. Cort S. says:

        I see what you’re talking about.

        Friday’s 8-14 day temperature outlook:
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/2013/09/27/814temp.20130927.fcst.gif

        Saturday’s 8-14 day temperature outlook:
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/2013/09/28/814temp.20130928.fcst.gif

        And change “814temp” to “814prcp” in the URL to get the precip outlooks.

        4 things to think about:

        1. The time period that they forecast for is different from day to day, as time marches forward. Friday’s map is valid for Oct 5-11, and Saturday’s map is valid for Oct 6-12. It would be more surprising if the maps didn’t change at least a little bit.

        2. Outlooks are automated on weekends and have human input during the workweek.

        3. Outlooks are probabilistic, not deterministic. Western Nebraska went from having a ~40% chance of below-normal temps to a ~50% chance of above-normal temps. 33/33/33% of above/near/below-normal is the baseline, so there are always implicit non-zero probabilities for the other two categories even when the map is shaded blue or orange. When you look at the numbers, a 40-50% chance for your most likely outcome is not a very strong signal. 60-90% chances are stronger signals (yes, 80-90% chances do occur sometimes). A deterministic outlook would be more of a binary way of forecasting, where you place your entire bet on one category for a particular location, and you will either be absolutely correct or absolutely wrong. CPC outlooks are never deterministic, despite what their coloring scheme might suggest. Flipping from a 40% chance below-normal to 50% chance above-normal is indeed a notable change for that portion of the country, but it’s not nearly as dramatic as a deterministic flip-flop. Additionally, the degree to which temperatures would be above- or below-normal is not explicitly stated. We all have a good idea of how unreliable weather forecasts are beyond 5, 7, 8, or 10 days. From day to day, it would not be surprising to see the temperature forecast beyond 7 days change by 5 degrees. If you were previously looking at slightly below-normal weather then, you would be looking at somewhat above-normal weather now.

        4. I see that Michigan went from a 40% chance of above-normal precip on Friday’s outlook, to a transition zone on Saturday, to a 40% chance of below-normal precip on Sunday. Descriptively, saying that Michigan went from above-normal precip outlooks to below-normal precip outlooks in 1-2 days sounds more dramatic than what is actually happening. In all 3 days, the general big-picture idea has remained the same: favoring above-normal in the Pacific Northwest, below-normal in the Rockies and Plains, and above-normal in the eastern US. The boundary between “above” in the east and “below” in the central US has been sliding eastward over the past few outlooks, which may be a reflection of the west-to-east transition in the weather pattern that could be happening in the 8-14 day time frame. Michigan happened to fall along that transition boundary, as did all the other states between here and Alabama. This is likely not so much a forecast flip-flop as it is just a natural transition in the weather pattern during the forecast time frame. Also note that the automated outlooks tend to keep the near-normal region quite skinny, but a human would have been more generous with painting our part of the country as near-normal in the Saturday outlook. Of course, not that it matters so much, because again these outlooks are not deterministic.

        1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

          Wow!! Thanx 4 the input. Yeah I agree though with what you’re saying. I guess a 40% chance of below normal temps, & a 50% chance of above normal isn’t exactly a huge change when you look at the big picture. Interesting to note that we are back to near normal temps now on the latest 8-14 day outlook, with below normal temps out west & above normal out east. Yeah I do notice that the bubble of below normal temps though does seem to be slowly sliding eastward, which might indeed be a sign of the west to east transition in the overall pattern in the next few weeks.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      We had 9 days that reached 80 this month. We had 15 days that reached 80 in Sept. 2007.

      1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Bill, if I remember correctly, didn’t we have a few days in the 90′s in Oct. of 2007? That was an incredibly warm autumn I know.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          No 90′s but close.
          http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/climate/f6/data/?site=grr&year=2007&month=10

          +8.2° for that month, good tailgating ;)

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          I remember that October “heat wave” well, because I went swimming in Lake Michigan on the Sunday. We were at Holland St. Park. There were hundreds of people there and quite a few got wet. The wind was due south, so there was little lake cooling. I remember noting how low the sun was in the sky to have temps. at Lake Michigan in the mid 80s. We had highs of 87-87-88 on the 6th, 7th and 8th – then the high was 51 on the 10th, the first of 5 consecutive days with highs in the 50s.

  2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Accuweather’s new 45-day outlook has us turning cooler by November. HA!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That 45 day guess will change more often then the CPC’s long range guess. Heck if you were to believe the Accuweather guess it would not get below 32° thru mid November. We shall see if that happens.
      SlimJim

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      The long-term models do look warm right now – contrasting many calls for early snow and cold. We will see.

      1. kevin. w says:

        All three in house models show temps trending cooler after the 5th and some are showing a very strong storm forming at the end of the week. Some are forecasting snow through Montana northern plains and Minnesota. One computer model shows gale/storm force winds over Lake Superior with a super cell/squall line thunderstorms from Wisconsin/Michigan toward the end of the week. Models also show another big storm coming toward mid October month which could produce a major snowfall event in central/southern Canada. But all models show a more active pattern shaping up after Thursday.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Nice, however Travis will be telling us above average temperatures while it is SNOWING in October and November!

        2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          And you will constantly be predicting snowstorms that never happen.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Pretty vague, Travis…which “long-term models”? What does “long-term” mean? Who’s “many”?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I linked to the mild CPC above.

          Weathertrends360, which aggregates several different models into one, has me still in the low 60′s at the end of October without any big cold shots or freezes in between. This would be in stark contrast to last October in which GR ended the month with highs of 48, 41, and 43.

          http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3585

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          weathertrends360.com is a worthless site. They always forecast higher temperatures than what actually happens. They are big global warming nuts! They provide 100% worthless temperature forecasts!

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    . Yes, we are in for a nice week ahead. I sure hope we do not have to wait until May before we see another week like this but who knows that is always a possibility around here . Of course there is still a chance that I may make it to my sisters house down in Cape Coral, FL in that case I may see a week or more of temps like this weeks
    SlimJim

  4. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Back from vacation down south and it will be nice to have the same weather here as down there :) It looks like UM and MSU will get the big ten football season started right with the weather this weekend!

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Updated CPC outlook for the month of October just published this afternoon. Can you say bullseye?

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      So in comparison to your first link up top, does this mean we can expect (hope for) a very warm second half of October?

  6. HEAT WAVE says:

    I AND MY DOG TRAVAS CAN’T WAIT FOR A HEAT WAVE TO COME THEN WE CAN GO SWIMMING IN LAKE MICHIGAN.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      haha Lake Michigan was running warm. Nice couple days to take a dip for the brave!

      I’d tell you how warm compared to average, but, due to the government shutdown, I get this spooky message instead:

      http://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/

  7. kevin. w says:

    You can expect a period of “indian summer” which may put “October” in the above/much above temp forecast. But I think there will be some form of blocking setting up once we get past the mid month mark. My concern is going to be November and I think this year its going to be a mean/nasty/rainy/snowy and horrible month. November may start out at halloween with cold/snow. Betting on the sickness/upper respiratory/flu season will really crank up in November. November in my outlook is going to be a very stormy and all out bang of month and something we haven’t seen in quite awhile. But someone else will be probably say 90s and sunny.

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    September departures from average:

    Muskegon +1.6
    Traverse City +1.2
    Kalamazoo +1.1
    Battle Creek +1.0
    Flint +1.0
    Marquette +0.9
    Grand Rapids +0.9
    Gaylord +0.8
    Holland +0.7
    Saginaw +0.7
    Houghton Lake 0.0
    Sault Ste. Marie -0.2
    Jackson -0.2
    Lansing -0.2
    Detroit -0.3
    Alpena -0.8

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I Pap test 1

Leave a Reply