Snowstorm (and WARM here Friday)

October 2nd, 2013 at 10:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.       Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch. Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch. These are the Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 probabilities of an inch or more of snow from the NWS Weather Prediction Center. We have a snowstorm brewing.  Winter Storm Watches are up for portions of five statesOver a foot of snow may fall in the mountains of Wyoming.  It may be cold enough for significant snow in parts of the Dakotas and NW Minnesota.  The last storm we had in late September gave heavy rain and strong winds to much of the Pacific Northwest.

In the meantime, nice and sunny in Michigan, with clouds down in Indiana and off to our west.  We’ll be in the warm 70s today with light winds.  Clouds will increase tonight with a chance of showers or an isolated t-shower after midnight (better chance of rain tonight as you go south.  The morning NAM (Caribou would have a chance of rain in G.R. after about 2 am).  That model gives G.R. highs of 74 or 75 tomorrow with a chance of showers, 83 on Friday (!) and mid 70s on Saturday with the cool front holding off until late in the day.

57 Responses to “Snowstorm (and WARM here Friday)”

  1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Winter storm watch for all of west Michigan for Fri. Oct. 11th. :-) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_228_200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06&param=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&fhr=228&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

  2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Hmmmm… maybe this link works… if not…. 216-228 hr 6Z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_216_200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06&param=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&fhr=216&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Not snow yet but that is quite a storm! Nice.

    2. Cort S. says:

      The blog’s link parser is having trouble with the vertical pipes in the URL. Here is Link #1 and Link #2 for ya.

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Bring it on!

  3. kevin. w says:

    I DON’T CARE WHAT ANYONE SAYS BUT: We are heading into a very active storm pattern there is a powerhouse pacific jet along with very cold air now building to our north along with very warm/humid air to our south. I’m seeing at least 3 if not 4 big storms the next 3-4 weeks. This type of pattern is going to act like spring with very large dynamics in the atmosphere that will come together to produce big storms. This first storm is going to produce a few very powerful tornadoes that may do some tremendous damage to our west/even take out a city. It will also produce some very heavy wet snows, high winds and someone will end up with flooding rains(possibly here in Michigan). This is not the end of these storms folks this is just the beginning of a major pattern change going forward from now through the long term (like October/November). I WOULD NOT be surprised to a see a snowstorm from northern Wisconsin/Minnesota in October that may do damage with a heavy wet system. Stay updated/listen to woodtv weather/bills blog. Our nice weather is about to change and as bill has stated before with his snow pictures and his comments it is going to get stormy once were in October. Enjoy the nice few days.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      I’ve been enjoying the nice days for weeks now ;) Where is this big change and cold you keep forecasting since August? Mid 60′s this weekend is just about average before we see another jump in temps.

      Winter will get here when it wants to. No point in trying to rush it.

      I’m hoping for some big storms too. With 80′s before the front, this may be our final opportunity at a widespread severe event until next spring. We won’t see that kind of energy for fuel anytime soon.

      1. HEAT WAVE says:

        I would love a heat wave to even my dog Travass wants a heat wave but I am thinking not no more! Fall is here the weather men have been off this week on temps I am sad we won’t be seeing any 80′s anymore till May…..Darn…I have to give Travass a treat now I guess!! to make him happy!!!

      2. kevin. w says:

        Have you looked at the ECMWF model and looked at the jet max out in the pacific and look at the cold building to the north. Have looked at the weather data over in the far pacific and see the storms out there. I’m not saying its going to snow but the pattern coming up TRAVIS is more of a spring/late fall pattern. There is a big storm in another 7-10 days on the all the models that looks very strong with copious amounts of energy/rain/snow/severe weather. Better look over some computer data if you know how to do that. The 80s are done and WE may see some 70s but the pattern is way more up/down now with the northern hemispheric seasonal changes coming.

        1. INDY says:

          If u know how to do that!!! lol!!!

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          kevin. w says:
          September 18, 2013 at 2:06 pm

          Man way to much noise on the PNA oscillation and when that happens it usually a sign of a significant pattern change coming. I Just saw some of the new model runs and also the GFS and they are really showing signs of big changes here within the next few weeks.

          kevin. w says:
          September 8, 2013 at 7:11 am

          Getting real tired of the heat and humidity and ready for some 50s and 60s. Hopefully this will be the last week of any of this summer weather around these parts. Hoping for a good fall storm with windy, rainy, colder temperatures and getting the fireplace ready. :’)

          kevin. w says:
          September 4, 2013 at 4:23 pm

          I also think once we get into October its going to feel like mostly November as I feel the pattern will start changing early and maybe some flakes after mid month. Rock on for cooler/colder weather. :)

          kevin. w says:
          August 29, 2013 at 10:25 am

          I see snow being forecasted early in the northern Canadian territories next week. So maybe the Euro model maybe on to significant cool down toward next weekend???

          kevin. w says:
          August 28, 2013 at 5:46 pm

          Fall is coming so enjoy your mild weather the next 4 days as the strong high/hot pressure is going back to the southwest and we go into our OLE’ northwest cool pattern my friend. Enjoy it while ya can, it looks like you’ll have Rocky tellin ya its cold and snowy for the next 8 months. :)

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Travis is a delusional global warming freak! Do not believe a word he says!

        4. INDY says:

          Nothing better to do Travis??? Get your snow shovel ready!!! INDYY

    2. Cort S. says:

      Let the cold season begin! Less instability to work with but better dynamics!

      1. kevin. w says:

        love the spring/fall dynamics Cort, its interesting to see how all the ingredients come together. The fun is just starting and its really fun to watch on the computer models fight it out for the win.

  4. INDY says:

    We could have Tornados one day then snow the next changing of the guard is now ….One thing for sure cold air is on it’s way…..

    1. kevin. w says:

      Ya and I think were going forward with alot of dynamics from here on out.

  5. Jen in Middleville says:

    Woo! Cooler weather! In the short term however, Saturday morning looking good for pumpkin picking?

  6. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    What are your guys thoughts for us this winter? I think it is about time we get hammered with snow! It has to happen sometime anyways :)

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      When was the last winter when west Michigan did not receive any snow??? So yes it will snow this winter! As to how much right now the best guess is around out average amount so for now I would go with 72″ for GR more at th lake shore less to the east of GR.
      SlimJim

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Very profound statement. Way to go out on a limb!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      GR – 107 inches!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Haha Rocky… It’s possible! Remember 2009?

    3. Jack says:

      Whatever The ” Good Lord” wills Us To Get !! Simple FACT…. Stay Cued… ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        That is a given – now give me a prediction!!

        1. Jack says:

          73.6 inches …How’s That ? Stay cued. ;-)

  7. Jack says:

    What The ” PUCK”……. GOOOO RED ~ WINGS !!! Yes, The PUCK Drops 2 – Night !!! Stay CUEDDDDD !!! ;-)

  8. Hey bill when are you going to release your winter forecast on air or on your blog. I would like to know. Will we have a more snowy winter than last year or less snowy? are we going to have more or less lake effect? will there be more area wide snowstorms?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I’ve been very busy with ArtPrize – I’m taking part of next week off – then I’ll start to work on the winter forecast…which I may release in bits and pieces in late October.

      1. Jack says:

        Hey Bill : Speaking of Bits & Pieces !!!!! CUE, The Dave Clark Five !! Remember This ONE BILL?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoRLIJJSG4o. ;-)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Sure do, and this one which has been played at a lot of weddings over the past four decades: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4wU2KMVmTo

        2. Jack says:

          Yes, Indeed Bill, as well as This Song at Weddings ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3UvuasWVzk. :-)

        3. Mike M. says:

          Here’s the one I played after my divorce…

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VxMDwYfxvQ

          Bwahhahhahaa….;)

  9. Meagan says:

    What are your thoughts for Friday?
    Will we get any rain… I’m supposed to have an oktoberfest…
    I don’t want it to be rained out!! :) :)

  10. Aug says:

    Why do people keep making a big deal out of the warm weather? All we get around here is hot and dry weather with no storms. I’m so sick of this same and lame weather here…

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You sound like another whining fixxxer clone!

      1. Fixxxer fan says:

        Fantastic. I love it.

        1. Skot says:

          fixxer fan. Really? that name…..be gone!!!!! for ever!!!

  11. Aug says:

    Anyone remember the last time we had a good storm during the day? Please, give us something….

    1. kevin. w says:

      Several years ago

  12. GunLakeDeb says:

    For those wanting a detailed forecast for this weekend, go to the NWS GR page. Along the right border, go down a bit and you will see a “graphical forecast”. Click on that, and it will give you an hourly forecast. My experience is that it’s reasonably accurate!

  13. Uncle Sparkee says:

    We’ll well well my little weather hobos , your ol uncle sparks is done curing the outdoor crop. It’s been a wonderful year. Their is a green rainbow over the ol love shack! Looking forward to getting the grow room up and running this fall. Hard to believe your ol aunty Edna is getting the closet cleaned out! Wow man, it’s been a great season! Looking toward to bills winter prediction! I’ll be growin while ol Mother Nature is snowin!!!!! Yeahhh

    1. Jack says:

      Well, Well, Uncle Sparks How the Heck are U .?? Long Time NOOOO BLOG…. Take Ole Auntie Edna into The Closet and Get a little Hot “N” Nasty !!! CUE, Humble Pie and STAY HIGH!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MjgJNGJx6g. ;-)

  14. mr. negative says:

    Cold and rain, followed by cold and snow, followed by cold and rain until June…not a difficult task this time of year.

  15. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Just puff puff pass, man! It’s not that difficult! Unless the disco ball is glaring strait into your spears!

  16. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    This is the most depressing entry in Bill’s blog since last March.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      What, warm Friday? Or snowstorm not here lol! Sounds good to me!

  17. bluegill says:

    Been a cold start to spring in Chile. Actually, it was warmer in July and August (winter) than recently. Quite a bit of crop damage which may mean not a lot of some types of fruit at Meijer this winter -

    http://santiagotimes.cl/business/economy-a-trade/26787-spring-frosts-devastate-chilean-crops-

    1. Jack says:

      What No ” Chilli ” Beans ( pun intended). LOL…. Stay Cued, and sorry about the crop loss ! ;-)

  18. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Wings Win!! Only 9 month to go till they once again lift the cup!

    1. Jack says:

      Ha,You beat Me 2 it Barry ! 2-1 Final, Nice way to start the LOOOONNGG Season….WAY TO GO WINGS !!! Stay Cued.. …….. ;-)

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Like this. They should cruse through the eastern conference. How about a Redwing/Blackhawk finals matchup. It will happen.

      1. Jack says:

        That Would Be GRRRRRRREEEEEAAAAATTTTT Brian ! With a Different Out come. Of Course !!! Stay Cued !

  19. arcturus says:

    And the new normal warm weather continues. This bears repeating, from Skilling:

    ‘NOAA: Aug ws 342nd consec month to post global temp surplus. Aug tied wi/ 2005 as 4th warmest on planet since 1880. Last blo nrml Aug: 1978!’

    1. yooper4021 says:

      And your point is…?

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