Sunday Showers

October 5th, 2013 at 4:30 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Early Sunday – Here’s Storm Total Rainfall.  Rainfall has varied from next to nothing to over 3″.  We’ll see more showers today and a chance of a t-storm (mainly east on the t-storm chances).  Cooler air starts to push in today.  At 4 AM, the cool front was over central Lake Michigan, moving slowly to the east.  The dew points were in the mid 60s over S. Lower Michigan, but had fallen to 49 at Waukegan, Illinois.  As the front pushes slowly to the east, our winds will shift from the south to the west-southwest and the dewpoints will drop into the 50s.  Not much out there early this AM, but we still do have a chance of showers during the day, with a chance of a t-shower ahead of the cool front.  Saturday there were funnel clouds reported in Wisconsin.  The storms in Chicago have produced 60 mph winds, 1″ hail and 1.5″ of rain in 35 minutes.  Those storms are moving toward us at this time.  There’s a fairly solid area of rain across much of the U.P. with showers and storms extending down to the southern states. Yellow and red colors indicate heavy rain.  The showers and storms are moving ENE.  Grand Rapids has officially (at the airport) set a record for the wettest Oct. 5 ever with 1.69″ of rain since midnight.  Other 24-hr. rainfall totals:  2.5″ Dansville (Ingham Co.), 2.29″ Saranac, 2.12″ Haslett, 1.47″ Ada, 1.41″ Lowell, 1.37 East G.R., 1.16″ Stanton.  Lots of clouds and some rain will keep most high temps. in the low-mid 70s.  It’s only in the 50s over much of N. Lower Michigan and the 40s in the U.P.   TIGERS win 3-2.    Tigers games will be at 1:07 pm Monday and 5:07 PM Tuesday.  Numerous showers and a few t-showers at this hour.  Grand Rapids had 0.77″ of rain between 2 and 3 am.  Over 2″ of rain fell in NW Lower Michigan.   18 tornadoes reported in far NE Nebraska and far NW Iowa with 15 injured in the town of Wayne. (see thread below).

 

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker,  the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

318 Responses to “Sunday Showers”

  1. Jerry hoag says:

    I see a lot of lightning now outside my home, no thunder, but a lot of lightning. So sooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnn. I AM GETTING VERY EXCITED FOR SOME REAL LOUD BOOMMMEERRRRSSSSSSSS AND BBRIIGGHHHHHTTTTTTTT FLASHES IN THEEEE SKY!!!!

    As of now all dear friends, bloggers and passer byers I will be off from here for the rest of night. As I attend to my High Blood Sugars now for the rest of night. Have to get them under control… As of now or I should say at 1115pm they were 597. So a veeeeerrrrrrrryyy long night for me. So I am glad for a very bright and loud night!!

  2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Got drenched here in southern Berrien this evening…. several boomers moved on thru while I was at work. Doppler radar estimated at least a half inch of rain here.

  3. Cort S. says:

    These storms are rather efficient rainmakers. Had a good downpour in Holland without a whole lot of thunder. This afternoon, the Mount Pleasant AWOS reported 1.13 inches of rain in an hour.

    1. Jack says:

      Had a Nice 5 minute Moderate RAIN Shower, Here NE G.R. Along with Distant Thunder, and Distant Lightning !! Want MORE…. Stay CUED..

  4. Cort S. says:

    Pretty significant long-track nighttime tornado in Nebraska. Dual-pol radar showed a Tornado Debris Signature (TDS) at times.

    1. Jack says:

      Link ..?. Cort ..If Ya Please !

      1. Cort S. says:

        There are a couple radar pictures on this page.

        1. Jack says:

          Thanks Cort !, Great Page ! When Do Ya Think West M.I. , best Chance at Severe or Strong Storms. IS ?? Staying Cued.. Thanks Again CORT !!

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Those are definitely some wicked looking storms out there by the looks of the radar.

  5. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    I see the snow has begun in the Black hills of SD. Over 2 feet expected by tomorrow night. http://rapidcityjournal.com/sturgisrallydaily/webcams/deadwood/

  6. Skot says:

    BILL My booookie. (Star Wars Phrase) I hear you on WOOD, or your Colleagues all the time. For 2 days now I hear ” Much Cooler for Sunday” , but I hear NO Forecast. Forget Waiting for the models to come together,…INSTINCT my Friend.

    1. Skot says:

      Never, forget where you Came from.

  7. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Not much happened up here I received the infamous split, I got some rain .4in and heard distant thunder and lightning.

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Warm this morning. Just a couple of sprinkles here overnight.

  9. Jeff (Richland) says:

    OMG we’re getting a thunderstorm hallelujah!!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m so jealous! I’m on the very north edge – got just enough “rain” to polka-dot the deck….. the only thing that has kept our lawns from getting brittle and brown is the heavy dew in the morning. I really don’t think we’ve had .5 inch total since the first of Sept??

      Keeping my fingers crossed for Saturday night!

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        In September I recored 1.12″ of rain, pretty low, and most of that came in paltry increments of .10 to .25″ so not really beneficial. Not sure how much rain we had this AM, haven’t checked the rain gauge yet, but radar estimates are around 1″. Downtown Richland was flooding when I drove through there during the end of the storms. Lightning was very vivid at times and loud thunder. Good storms.

  10. Rich (cooper) says:

    Had Lots of rain and lighting and thunder some moderate wind south of plainwell

  11. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Another .29 overnight. .41 in the last 24 hours.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Just a trace here just NW of GR.
      SlimJim

  12. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    It was warmer driving to work at 7:45 this morning than my average high for the day. July all over again!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      All the better to keep the Great Lakes warm and that may help with this winters snow fall and that will keep all of the so called snow lovers personas that seem to like to write comments on here.
      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Yes, need to keep the winter nuts happy. They are going bonkers right now.

        Lake Michigan is much warmer right now than average. Unfortunately, the NOAA site is down to see exactly how big this differential is.

        You would think this should help with big lake effect snows – although we had the same scenario going into winter last year, and that hypothesis never panned out.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Temperatures have been very close to average, not only for September, but also over the summer. The departures from average were: June +0.0, July +0.2, August -0.7, September +0.9. The lake is a little warmer than average mainly because of above average sunshine (70%) in September and light winds. Watch what happens when we get some really windy days. The warmer water at the surface will mix with cooler water below and we’ll get more upwelling.

          There is less of a relationship between warm water in Sept./early October and snow later in the fall. Sometimes we cool back to average before it gets cold enough for lake-effect and sometimes we remain in a warmer pattern. Last year we had average temperatures in November, but hardly any snow. When we had precipitation, it was warm enough to make rain instead of snow and when it was cold enough for lake-effect, the air was too dry to get the lake machine cranked up.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          The same was said last year and yet lake temps remained above average all the way to March

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          They were below average from the end of February to early May.

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    BTW one little bit of information…..the low so far for today (October 4th ) here in GR looks to be 65° and the record warmest Minimum for today (the 4th) is 65 set back in1951 so there is a chance that we could tie the record warmest minimum for the date (still has to get to midnight without going below 65)
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Awesome find, Slim! I was trying to track down that type of information for over in my neck of the woods.

      Could break or tie a couple record high minimum temperature records today in Southern Lower.

    2. arcturus says:

      Good info. By Sunday it will be interesting to see what the cumulative degrees above average will be. I suspect it will be large enough to offset any return to ‘normal’ or ‘below normal’ for the remainder of the month, whatever normal means these days.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        There are no such thing as normals, only averages.

  14. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – 1/10 of an inch of rain overnight. It sounded as though it should have been more. Storm free.

  15. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I’m currently +10 degrees above average for October. Probably increase that after today. Will likely end up among the warmest Oct 1 – Oct 4th stretches on record.

    Looking mild 2 more weeks out:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    I see SPC has added Southern Michigan into their Slight Risk for Sat/Sun! Maybe the NWS got it wrong again after all.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      It’s hard to be optimistic with the weather around here, but it would seem Saturday evening/early night could be very interesting, especially here in the SW part of the state. Keeping my fingers crossed.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Four days equals global warming not.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        I don’t see anything in his post calling this ‘global warming’. No different than if we get 4 days in a row of below average temps. Does not imply global cooling.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Except for when temps are below average, Travis seems to disappear from this blog.

        2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          If only you would disappear. Fantastic. I love it. Get used to it.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Clever comeback, Mark.

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Actually I love the snow and am still here!

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        September global raw data is out. One of the warmest Septembers ever recorded for the planet.

        +0.67 degrees F above long-term average. Warmest was in Australia and east Antarctic, where it was +9.4 degrees F warmer than seasonal norms.

        The 343rd consecutive month of above average global temperatures. But you’re right. Probably just a lucky hot streak ;)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          You are dulusional and 100% wrong again!

        2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          And your rebuttal stats are where? That what I thought. Talk about delusional. You are worthless. Fantastic. I love it. Get used to it.

  16. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Not sure on rain total here yet, not home to check the rain guage, but radar estimates around 1″. Storms had very vivid lightning and loud thunder at times. Good storms, and totally surprised to wake up to. Will report on rain total later.

  17. Mike (Shepherd, Mi) says:

    Radar estimated precip has been unbelievably accurate lately. Estimated .34″ at my house an I actually had .32″

  18. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Beautiful day and 80 degrees once again. My third consecutive 80 degree day. I really can’t believe this is October!

    So much for a cold weekend. Looks like 80 then 70′s on Sunday as the front is not expected to pass through til Sunday night now.

    Brand new CPC keeps us squarely in the warm bullseye:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Yup, pretty crazy. The kids are glad I slacked off and didn’t wrap up the pool for the year yet. Today is the third day in a row they’ve come home from school (no air conditioning) and jumped right in. I might even take the seadoo out for a spin tonight if it doesn’t rain. We can start calling this Julytober!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      You are correct. While not unprecedented, this weather should be celebrated. I too hope it continues.

  19. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Lake is munching on that rain…nom nom nom

  20. Jeff (Richland) says:

    .90″ of rain here this morning

  21. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    They’re kidding, right? According to this PBS article on the big snowstorm out West…they are calling it ‘Winter Storm Atlas’.

    Seriously, we’re going to start giving Winter storm names, now?

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/10/early-snowstorm-threatens-midwest.html

    1. Cort S. says:

      They = The Weather Channel

    2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      Yeah they started this last year… A pointless thing for a station needing more viewers cause… Well… they replaced real weather forecasting with pointless tv shows.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        Naming winter storms = ABSOLUTELY STUPID!!!

        1. SBPortage002 says:

          I do not have much use for the “weather” channel any more. Boy the quality has imploded big time.

      2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

        yeah… the worst thing about it is: I actually heard a couple people in public last year refer to a couple winter storms by ‘name’. In other words: at least to some people, the naming of winter storms are catching on at least to some.

    3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      It’s a ridiculous Weather Channel gimmick…like everything else they do.

  22. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Big tornadoes in NW Iowa and SE South Dakota this evening.

  23. INDY says:

    Bill Getting some thunder out thee YARDofBRICKS…..INDYY

    1. Jack says:

      Thunder = “Ear Candy” !!!! Stay Cued….YARDofBRICKS, and GOOOO TIGERS!!!

  24. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Getting some good lightning and some thunder here! Nothing intense… Simply soothing. Perfect sleeping weather IMO! Distant thunder = perfect white noise

  25. INDY says:

    YAAAA CRAZZY TO SEE A TWISTER WATCH SO LATER OUT WEST!! INDYY

  26. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Has anyone seen the snow pictures from western South Dakota? It’s amazing!
    There are reports of 30″+ of snowfall, 4′+ drifts, and winds up to 70mph!

    https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/537267_10151875164071760_499512110_n.jpg

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      I know, it’s insane… I saw there were reports of thundersnow too this morning in Rapid City.

  27. Just got a good heavy downpour here in Byron Center.

  28. Did the tornado that hit Wayne, Nebraska effect the current conditions reporting system? because it says there is currently a thunderstorm and the last update was 5:15PM

  29. Jack says:

    Nice LOUD THUNDER , and Lots of LIGHTNING Moderate Rain HERE NOW !!!! Ahhh Like Music to my Ears and Flashes For My Eyes !! What a Great garden Variety Storm, To top of a Tiger WIN !!! And Fireworks in The SKY from THE BEST ARTIST in The WORLD !!!! Thanks …..GOD!!!

  30. Dan (Holland) says:

    Got missed again… All the rain keeps missing us lately. :(

    1. Dan (Holland) says:

      Actually it’s been the theme this whole summer.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      If you go back several storm reports, they’re on there again. They got 7 inches of snow in 3 hours.

  31. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Here at my house I received 0.37” of rain in last nights thundershower. There was one real close strike last night and several good flashes of lightning. Its 65° here at my house, while warm for October there still is a little chill in the air and I will not be wearing my shorts for my walk that I will soon be taking. Nice win for the Tigers last night and my second team (the Rays) kind of took in on the chin.
    Also while the NWS has not mentioned it yet the lowest temperature of 65° yesterday tied the record warmest minimum (65°) last set in 1951.
    SlimJim

  32. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Severe weather outlook from NOAA:
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
    MICHIGAN.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

    A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
    FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING
    WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORMS COULD
    ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

    THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION….SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY
    RAIN INTO TONIGHT. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES COULD TOP AN INCH
    PER HOUR. IF THESE STORMS PERSIST OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME
    AREA…FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

    A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST OF A LINE FROM
    NEAR LANSING TO BATTLE CREEK SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
    ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS…BUT AND ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
    COULD DEVELOP. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY…WHICH COULD
    LEAD TO FLOODING.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY.

    So looks like the timing just won’t be right for us… the severe storms (according to the NWS) will most likely weaken to the west right before they reach us late tonight then re-strengthen just east of us tomorrow morning. We should still get some good showers and garden variety storms tonight. Also can’t rule out the possibility of a lingering strong storm but overall, the storms should fall below the severe threshold.

  33. GunLakeDeb says:

    FINALLY! From 1:23 AM to 1:53 AM, we got POUNDED with rain (and lightning/thunder right on top of us) – I had 1.45″ of rain in the gauge :-) I realize when the rain comes that hard and fast – a lot just runs off – but we sorely needed it! When I head home from work, I’m going to look around and see what got hit by lightning in my neighborhood – at one point, we had that instantaneous “flashBAM!” of lighting that was WAY too close…

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Nice! We had .12″ overnight then it poured again briefly around 7am, so I’m guess less than 1/4″ total, didn’t check the rain guage after the 7am stint. Looks like plenty more to come per HRRR guidance.

  34. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We woke up to 1.6″ of new rainfall overnight. It poured from about 11:30PM to 2:30AM.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Once again – around 11PM, we were on the very northern tip of the rain. I was standing on my deck, and could feel the occasional drop of rain hit my face. It wasn’t until those scattered-but-fierce rains cells came through after 1 AM, that we actually got rain. The funny part is that you and I are practically “neighbors” – but still get dramatically-different weather….LOL!!

  35. So, this is interesting. An AFD with a hidden message- http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/noaa-sends-hidden-messages-in-forecast-discussion/

    There’s a link on there to the original so it is an actual AFD, whether it was intentional or not.

  36. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – 2.1 inches of rain overnight…we were obviously underneath the”rain train”. At 2:04 am we recieved the loudest crack of thunder, for our specific area, for the year.

  37. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Averaged +20 degrees above average yesterday. One of the most abnormal days of 2013.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Wow, only seven degrees shy of the record high set 62 years ago.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are on drugs and 100% delusional!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        As are you.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer it is nice to know that you listen intently to every word that I say! Get a life!!

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Flint had a +25 day last month. It was a hot day because of the night.

  38. Brad (Van Buren) says:

    We got ZERO rain down here last night. The rain formed just a couple miles to me east. It’s not totally dry here, but we could definitely use some more. I have a feeling tonight will be a fail also. Gonna have to wait and see.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Why do you think tonight will be a fail? This is a powerful system with plenty of moisture to work with. Look at the HRRR. It shows a large slug of rain and thunderstorms coming through tonight with scattered opportunities till then. I normally am pesimistic about the weather too but there seems to be little doubt it will continue to rain off and on through late tonight.

      1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

        I have to admit…I was wrong :) We have had a ton of rain in the last 2 hours. Actually too much rain in a short time.

  39. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    We got a ton of rain between 3-6 am. The river is twice as high as it was yesterday. Radar estimated we received about 2-3 inches of rain this morning.

    A lot of our wood chips got washed down the sidewalk. That only happens when it rains incredibly hard. I need a new rain gauge.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Same with us in A2. Crazy amount of rain.

  40. Ray says:

    Looks like a pretty good line of T-Storms crossing Lake Mi now!

  41. Mike (Shepherd, MI) says:

    Pretty amazing how the storm by Chicago refuses to move over the lake and is just moving right up the shoreline.

  42. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Your ol uncle sparks is ready……. Disco ball, smoke, wild turkey, smoke, smoke , and your ol aunty Edna’s got somthing special in the fryin pan! Smells like lake perch! Gonna get crazy in the love shack tonight! Tokes the blood hound is chasing his tail. Your ol uncle sparks will be doing the same wheat the thunder rolls!

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Suprisingly FDM hasn’t has been somewhat stable today, only 3X of instablilty where yesterday FDM was all over the place 10X ;-)

        1. Jack says:

          Hey Swat_Zoo…. THE FDM Rules !!! So I Guess we Will Get Shafted Tonight . Stay Cued … ;-)

        2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Yup, we will FDM continues to become stable and balanced before the temp changed last night to it being cooler as I said unstable and all over the place. I believe in the FDM

        3. Jack says:

          Indeed, In FDM WE TRUST!!!! Some More Thunder & Lightning would Be NICE, again Tonight !! Stay Cued !!! ;-)

  43. marianne says:

    My son in Chicago just called me and told me to batten down the hatches. Looks like a big one, yay!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Don’t count on it. The shrewder will effect this by the time it hits us.

      1. Mike (Shepherd, MI) says:

        Lake Michigan is about the same temp as the air it wont be what kills them today.

  44. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready – we are headed for stretch of below average temperatures!

    1. By stretch, you mean one day, right?

  45. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Another week of above average temps coming up. Fantastic.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      Below, BUT, not much below average for the next few days..then back to above by late next week.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        Monday thru Wednesday I meant.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      fixxxer = brain dead!!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Rocky = troll. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

  46. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The rain is breaking up and it was another nice day on the golf course even thought the forecast was for a 90% chance of rain! Who knew?

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      Per the NWS per their morning discussion…

      “We expect to see a relative lull settle in by mid-morning and last a good portion of the afternoon.”

      Not as if they said it would rain all day.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Good point.

  47. Jack says:

    So, Where Is The COLD FRONT Located Right NOW ??? Anybody Tell Me ? Staying Cued…. ++++ …. Go TIGERS! :-)

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      FDM says SHAFTED for our area Jack,now if she increases more than 3x then we might have something. But so far staying stationary ;-)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        My God look at this continuous infamous SPLIT!! SHAFTED!!! Quack Quack

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